deluca67 Posted January 9, 2012 Report Posted January 9, 2012 Scores to keep an eye on. Florida hosting Vancouver & Washington at Los Angeles. Washington is looking to take over the division lead and has a good chance to pull within two points without burning one of their 2 games in hand. How does this effect the Sabres? To enhance playoff chances, the Sabres need Washington to gain control of the Southeast Division and for Florida to start falling out of the top eight. A new coach has sparked the Caps and OV. The Sabres can not afford two teams from the Southeast making the playoffs, that severely damages the Sabres chances.
deluca67 Posted January 10, 2012 Author Report Posted January 10, 2012 Plenty of games tonight. Ottawa & Pittsburgh and Philly & Carolina are the Eastern matchups to keep an eye on.
deluca67 Posted January 11, 2012 Author Report Posted January 11, 2012 Pittsburgh and Washington tonight, best result for the Sabres is a Caps win in regulation. Worst case is a Pens win in overtime. The Devils are in Edmonton. Devils have a chance to put 9 points between themselves and the Sabres.
deluca67 Posted January 12, 2012 Author Report Posted January 12, 2012 Boston - Montreal - The Habs have a chance to tie the Sabres in 11th place, having played one more game. Philly - Islanders - The Islanders can move to within 3 points of the Sabres with a game in hand. Carolina - Tampa - Tampa can move to within 1 point of the Sabres with even amount of games played.
SwampD Posted January 13, 2012 Report Posted January 13, 2012 Boston - Montreal - The Habs have a chance to tie the Sabres in 11th place, having played one more game. Philly - Islanders - The Islanders can move to within 3 points of the Sabres with a game in hand. Carolina - Tampa - Tampa can move to within 1 point of the Sabres with even amount of games played. Looks like we dodged, a bullet at least for tonight. Great thread btw.
deluca67 Posted January 13, 2012 Author Report Posted January 13, 2012 Looks like we dodged, a bullet at least for tonight. Great thread btw. I tried to catch the spirit of the thing.
carpandean Posted January 13, 2012 Report Posted January 13, 2012 Looks like we dodged, a bullet at least for tonight. Depends. If you don't think this team will turn it around, then you want all of those teams to catch and pass the Sabres. It's the best for the draft and the best chance for change in the front office. Not saying which way you should lean on this issue; just saying that there's two ways to look at it.
deluca67 Posted January 13, 2012 Author Report Posted January 13, 2012 Depends. If you don't think this team will turn it around, then you want all of those teams to catch and pass the Sabres. It's the best for the draft and the best chance for change in the front office. Not saying which way you should lean on this issue; just saying that there's two ways to look at it. Either way you want to look at it, I hope this thread shows how much of the Sabres fate is out of their hands. They can go on the exact same run as last season and miss the playoffs. They can also have a worse record and make it. I know it's only the half way point, it's time to keep an eye on what the other teams are doing.
SwampD Posted January 13, 2012 Report Posted January 13, 2012 Depends. If you don't think this team will turn it around, then you want all of those teams to catch and pass the Sabres. It's the best for the draft and the best chance for change in the front office. Not saying which way you should lean on this issue; just saying that there's two ways to look at it. Either way you want to look at it, I hope this thread shows how much of the Sabres fate is out of their hands. They can go on the exact same run as last season and miss the playoffs. They can also have a worse record and make it. I know it's only the half way point, it's time to keep an eye on what the other teams are doing. I think they turn it around and give us something to cheer for. They have been playing about as bad as you can play and they have still been in almost every game. I gotta think that they are going to start to win some of these games. I'm not sure if I even care if they make the playoffs or not. I just want something to cheer for the next couple of months.
deluca67 Posted January 14, 2012 Author Report Posted January 14, 2012 Only two games to watch. Washignton vs Tampa - Hope for a regulation win. Washington can end the night 7 points ahead of the Sabres with a game in-hand. Tampa can can pull to with 1 point of the Sabres with even amount of games palyed. Florida vs Pittsburgh - Again, hope for a regulation win. Pitt can put 7 points between themselves and the Sabres while Florida can go 11 points up. I stil think Buffalo's best chance is having Florida fallout of the playoffs.
deluca67 Posted January 14, 2012 Author Report Posted January 14, 2012 A great night for the Center Ice package if you have it. Plenty to keep an eye on. I may actually buy it. New Jersey at Winnipeg - Best case scenario is a Devils win. Need to put the Jets in the rearview mirror. Rangers at Leafs - The Rangers are out of reach, hope for a Ranger regulation time win. Ottawa at Montreal - Need for the Sens to stay hot and keep the Montreal losing streak going. Boston at Carolina - Like the Sens you need to hope for the Bruins to keep rolling. Don't need Carolina finding new life in the second half. Overall, best case scenario is for the top six teams to just pull away from the pack. If they're winning, the teams closer to the Sabres are hopefully losing. With OV heating up I expect the Caps to at some point take over the SE Division lead. Leaving Florda, Toronto, Pittsburgh, Winnipeg and the Sabres battling for that final spot.
deluca67 Posted January 15, 2012 Author Report Posted January 15, 2012 Scores to keep an eye on. Pittsburgh at Tampa Bay - Pittsburgh is looking to right their ship and join the 50 point club. Tampa has hit rock bottom. At this point you have to hope for a Lightning regulation win. It pulls them to within 3 points of the Sabres, that is better than Pittsburgh putting the Sabres possibly 7 points out of 9th. This is the 1 game in hand on the Sabres for both Pitt and Tampa. Rangers at Montreal - At this point the Sabres need the Rangers to run the table. Montreal will be looking to move to within 1 point of the Sabres while playing in 1 more game. Montreal and the Sabres are very similar teams. Both well under .500, each have scored 112 goal with negative goal differentials. Sabres have allowed more goals. If you want a honest assessment of the Sabres playoff chances, look at Montreal and assess their chances. They are the same for both teams. Washington at Carolina - The Caps look to take the top spot in the SE Division tonight. The Caps can help the Sabres in two ways tonight with a regulation win. They would end Carolina's little win streak at 2 games and prevent them from moving to with 2 points of the Sabres (with 3 more games played). They will also drop Florida down to the 8th spot. Florida is 3-7 in their last ten and seemed poised to drop out of a playoff spot. I expect Florida to drop out of the top 8 and for Pittsburgh to take their spot in 8th. I expect that will be the last change in the top 8 for some time. No team in the bottom six seems to be prepared to make a run at the top eight. If there is any change in the top 8 over the next few weeks it wll be Florida righting their ship and jumping back up into the mix. IMO, there are 9 teams fighting for 8 spots, unless one of the bottom six steps up which I don't see happening right now.
Rox11 Posted January 15, 2012 Report Posted January 15, 2012 And as disheartening as the Sabres have been, it's still so surprising to me that they are only 5 points out of 8th ....
deluca67 Posted January 15, 2012 Author Report Posted January 15, 2012 And as disheartening as the Sabres have been, it's still so surprising to me that they are only 5 points out of 8th .... There is still hope, as little as it may seem. IMO, realistically there is only one playoff spot left in play. As I said, it would help the Sabres chances if the top six teams just went off in the second half and really separated themselves from the pack.
sabres1970 Posted January 15, 2012 Report Posted January 15, 2012 No game is a gimme, especially with the way we're playing right now. But last night was a must win. We needed to finally win 2 in a row, couldn't get it done. Now we have Detroit, Chicago and St. Louis in the next week who are all at the top of the west? Ouch. If their play doen't improve (and there no reason to believe it will) we could end up in the basement of the east by February. We can scoreboard watch all we want, but I can't see them gaining much ground in the next few weeks, if at all.
deluca67 Posted January 15, 2012 Author Report Posted January 15, 2012 No game is a gimme, especially with the way we're playing right now. But last night was a must win. We needed to finally win 2 in a row, couldn't get it done. Now we have Detroit, Chicago and St. Louis in the next week who are all at the top of the west? Ouch. If their play doen't improve (and there no reason to believe it will) we could end up in the basement of the east by February. We can scoreboard watch all we want, but I can't see them gaining much ground in the next few weeks, if at all. That is a possibility even if they play well and win some games.
deluca67 Posted January 16, 2012 Author Report Posted January 16, 2012 A big match-up in Winnipeg as they host the Sens. The Sens are 13 points ahead of the Sabres and out of reach. The Jets are looking to put 4 points between themselves and the Sabres. The Jets have lost 3 in a row. Sabres fans need to hope it reaches 4 in a row. Islanders host Nashville - I know what you are saying, "the Islanders, really." Yes really, they are currently 5 points behind the Sabres with 2 games in hand. They can end the night 3 points out with two games in hand. Boston at Florida - Florida is 3-7 and falling back to the pack. They have given up the division lead and will likely will fall further. Sabres fans need Boston to make sure Florida continues to fall.
deluca67 Posted January 17, 2012 Author Report Posted January 17, 2012 Facing the real possibility of ending the night 9 points out of 8th. Here are tonight's match-ups: Ottawa at Toronto - Hope for a Sens win because the Leafs are looking to go up 8 points on the Sabres. Winnipeg at New Jersey - Jets looking to go up 6 points on the Sabres. Devils are 11 points up, go Jets. Carolina at Pittsburgh - Go Canes! Pens can go up 9 on the Sabres. Islanders at Washigton - Go Islanders! Like the Pens, the Caps looking to go up 9 on the Sabres as well. Boston at Tampa - Bruins are in a different league. Tampa (with a Islander win) would put the Sabres 3 points out of 15th in the Conference.
SportsFan88 Posted January 17, 2012 Report Posted January 17, 2012 Its over, lol. I feel bad for you man, you seem very dedicated to this but like the only one really scoreboard watching. I've conceeded the season over for awhile now. When you go 2+ months without a winning streak you are NOT and don't deserve to be a Playoff team.
Sabres Fan in NS Posted January 17, 2012 Report Posted January 17, 2012 DeLuca, I really do appreciate your effort and detailed analysis, but what is the point. I'm sorry, but this just adds to my frustration level with the sorry state of the Sabres.
Who Else? Posted January 17, 2012 Report Posted January 17, 2012 Are we supposed to watch the scoreboard on the teams above or below the Sabres at this point?
SportsFan88 Posted January 17, 2012 Report Posted January 17, 2012 Are we supposed to watch the scoreboard on the teams above or below the Sabres at this point? Below really doesn't matter with the Draft Lottery. I think the 5 worst teams have a chance at getting the #1. I admit I don't follow the Draft all that much.
carpandean Posted January 17, 2012 Report Posted January 17, 2012 Below really doesn't matter with the Draft Lottery. I think the 5 worst teams have a chance at getting the #1. I admit I don't follow the Draft all that much. Each of the bottom 14 teams have a chance of winning the lottery, but the winner can only move up four spots. The chance of winning is highest for the worst teams (e.g., 25% for the worst team.) So, the chance that the 30th place team still picks first is 25% + the chance that 25-17 win, which totals almost 50%. From there, it's something like 19%, 14%, 10%, 7% (just rough guesses, not exactly correct) for 29-26. If you want the #1 pick, you want to finish last, as you have approximately double the chance over even second-to-last. Basically, it's a coin flip to decide if you get the #1 pick or the #2 pick.
Robviously Posted January 17, 2012 Report Posted January 17, 2012 Are we supposed to watch the scoreboard on the teams above or below the Sabres at this point? We're definitely watching to see our draft pick get closer to #1 overall.
SportsFan88 Posted January 17, 2012 Report Posted January 17, 2012 Each of the bottom 14 teams have a chance of winning the lottery, but the winner can only move up four spots. The chance of winning is highest for the worst teams (e.g., 25% for the worst team.) So, the chance that the 30th place team still picks first is 25% + the chance that 25-17 win, which totals almost 50%. From there, it's something like 22%, 15%, 9%, 4% (just rough guesses, not exactly correct) for 29-26. If you want the #1 pick, you want to finish last, as you have approximately double the chance over even second-to-last. Basically, it's a coin flip to decide if you get the #1 pick or the #2 pick. Thanks for the clarification. I knew you could only move up a certain number of spots but didn't know the exact number. So theoretically we can finish anywhere between 26th and 30th to get the #1 pick. Though, this isn't football so i'm not sure that matters as much. Not sure who the #1 pick is rumored to be. Usually its well known by now. This draft seems wide open. Wish this was the year Tavares was the #1 pick.
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