I know it's the wrong time but Darcy has made some good picks

[korab rules]

 

Well, "top 30" includes defensemen and goaltenders. I don't have time now, but I think it would be pretty easy to name 30 players I'd rather have than Vanek. Frankly, I have a hard time thinking of a single NHL team that doesn't have a player whom I'd consider better than Vanek.

 

How about Buffalo?

[spndnchz]

I have to find my post about this brb

 

In early '08 season

with Sabres/ with new team

Drury, :: .807 :cry: .679

Briere, :: 1.02 :cry: .931

Campbell :: .451 :w00t: .897

Dumont :: .62 :w00t: .87

Griere :: .34 :w00t: .37

Pyatt :: .35 :w00t: .46

[nfreeman]

So would you consider him a top 30 forward?? How about a top 10 LW?

 

Fair question. Here's a random list of top NHL left wings (from a preseason fantasy ranking on NHL.com -- http://www.nhl.com/i...s.htm?id=587164

 

1. Alex Ovechkin

2. Daniel Sedin

3. Zach Parise

4. Ilya Kovalchuk

5. Bobby Ryan

6. Dany Heatley

7. Patrick Marleau

8. Milan Lucic

9. Ryane Clowe

10. Thomas Vanek

11. Michael Cammalleri

12. Johan Franzen

13. Scott Hartnell

14. Brenden Morrow

15. Taylor Hall

16. Brandon Dubinsky

17. James van Riemsdyk

18. Jamie Benn

19. James Neal

20. Simon Gagne

21. Chris Kunitz

22. Dustin Penner

23. Matt Moulson

24. Brad Marchand

25. Ville Leino

26. Rene Bourque

27. David Booth

28. Andrew Ladd

29. Nikolai Kulemin

30. Alex Tanguay

 

 

 

 

I think reasonable people can disagree, but I'd put most of his top 9 (maybe not Heatley or Marleau at this point) ahead of Vanek, along with Morrow, Hall, JVR and Marchand. Not for fantasy purposes -- but who I'd rather have on the Sabres.

 

 

How about Buffalo?

 

Again, reasonable people can disagree, but I'd trade Vanek before I'd trade Miller or Myers.

[beerme1]

You could should have had a hard working agitator in Max Talbot for $2 million in free agency. I have no idea why he wasn't looked at as that was a no-brainer to many here.

 

Fixed it. I agree completely. In fact I was more than a little pissed that we didn't go after him. Gee we are looking for a center and he's available and he would have some desperately needed sandpaper to the mix.

[korab rules]

Fair question. Here's a random list of top NHL left wings (from a preseason fantasy ranking on NHL.com -- http://www.nhl.com/i...s.htm?id=587164

 

 

 

I think reasonable people can disagree, but I'd put most of his top 9 (maybe not Heatley or Marleau at this point) ahead of Vanek, along with Morrow, Hall, JVR and Marchand. Not for fantasy purposes -- but who I'd rather have on the Sabres.

 

 

 

 

Again, reasonable people can disagree, but I'd trade Vanek before I'd trade Miller or Myers.

so you would trade Vanek for Lucic straight up?

[Robviously]

Again, reasonable people can disagree, but I'd trade Vanek before I'd trade Miller or Myers.

I'd trade Vanek before Myers because Myers is 21 and should be the better player someday. He's definitely not right now though.

 

I'd trade Miller before Vanek, and it's not even close. He's four years older and stats aren't that much different from the league average. The league is full of great goalies and I think we could find someone comparable much easier than we could find a comparable replacement for Vanek.

[nfreeman]

so you would trade Vanek for Lucic straight up?

 

Definitely. Lucic is what the Sabres are dying for.

 

I'd trade Vanek before Myers because Myers is 21 and should be the better player someday. He's definitely not right now though.

 

I'd trade Miller before Vanek, and it's not even close. He's four years older and stats aren't that much different from the league average. The league is full of great goalies and I think we could find someone comparable much easier than we could find a comparable replacement for Vanek.

 

This is totally reasonable. I think Miller brings more intangibles than Vanek, and would be harder to replace than many think, but I suspect many if not most here would agree with you (although probably fewer than would've agreed with you 2 weeks ago, when Enroth was being touted by some as the next Dominik).

[Robviously]

so you would trade Vanek for Lucic straight up?

Ugh, I'm probably the biggest Vanek fan on the board and even I would have to think about this. Ideally, I could keep Vanek (who will put up more points) and find toughness to complement him elsewhere (hopefully this is what Kassian, McNabb, Foligno, etc. do).

[SDS]

 

 

Definitely. Lucic is what the Sabres are dying for.

 

Of course, without Vanek you have created another hole which the team would be dying to fill right after that swap.

[korab rules]

Definitely. Lucic is what the Sabres are dying for.

Wow. I agree we need qualities he would bring, but not at the expense of the one true star we have on our roster right now. Myers may be one someday. Miller may have been one 2 years ago. Vanek is one - and is in his absolute prime right now.

 

Trade him for a gritty 3rd line winger, even perhaps the best gritty 3rd line winger in the game? No way. Lucic is a complimentary piece. Vanek is guy you build your team around

[Robviously]

Here's a list of our last few second round picks - Luke Adam, Drew Schiestal, TJ Brennan, Mike Weber, Jhonas Enroth, Darcy has become a much better drafter over time, and there are still some very good prospects available in the second round. By the third, its pretty much a blur.

Sabres Third Round Picks since 2007: Tropp (2007), Feinhage (2008), McNabb (2009), Gauthier-Leduc (2010), Sundher (2010), MacKenzie (2010), Catenacci (2011).

 

We're all in love with Brayden McNabb and I really liked Corey Tropp's game and hope he can come back strong after his nasty concussion.

 

Gauthier-Leduc is tearing up the Q this year and is about 50/50 to make Canada's WJC roster at last check. Kevin Sundher is on track for 40 goals and 100 points this year in Victoria. Matt MacKenzie is already playing in Rochester and Dan Catenacci is averaging over 1 point/game again this year in the OHL (he's a small center but the fastest player in our organization).

 

Considering what a crapshoot the 3rd round is, the team's recent returns there have been impressive.

 

Also, the complaint that too many Sabres first round picks don't make it is outdated right now. Our first rounders in 2005 and 2006 (Zagrapan and Persson) didn't amount to anything and we didn't have a pick in 2007, but since 2008: Myers, Ennis, Kassian, Pysyk, and Armia. Of those five, Armia is the only one I'm worried about but he's a teenager playing in a men's league and has the highest ceiling out of anyone in the organization (possibly with the exception of Myers).

[korab rules]

Ugh, I'm probably the biggest Vanek fan on the board and even I would have to think about this. Ideally, I could keep Vanek (who will put up more points) and find toughness to complement him elsewhere (hopefully this is what Kassian, McNabb, Foligno, etc. do).

Of course, without Vanek you have created another hole which the team would be dying to fill right after that swap.

 

I agree with SDS, and the reservations SnR has.

 

I think it's easier to find a big tough guy that can skate than one of the top 10 left wingers in the game. To put it differently, I think Kaleta is closer to Lucic than Boyes is to Vanek.

[nfreeman]

Of course, without Vanek you have created another hole which the team would be dying to fill right after that swap.

Wow. I agree we need qualities he would bring, but not at the expense of the one true star we have on our roster right now. Myers may be one someday. Miller may have been one 2 years ago. Vanek is one - and is in his absolute prime right now.

 

Trade him for a gritty 3rd line winger, even perhaps the best gritty 3rd line winger in the game? No way. Lucic is a complimentary piece. Vanek is guy you build your team around

 

Well, Lucic had 30 goals last year in 79 games, and Vanek had 32 in 80. Not that much difference.

 

Also, Lucic is not a "3rd line winger." Not even close. He was #3 among Bruins forwards last year in ice time, both regular season and playoffs, in a year in which they won something pretty sweet.

 

In fact, I think I'd go so far as to argue that Lucic (rock solid skilled beast who can affect the game via both scoring and hitting) is more a guy to build a team around than Vanek (skilled winger but much more of a one-trick pony) is.

 

To be clear: I think Vanek is a good player. I don't advocate dumping him, nor would I think the Sabres would improve via addition by subtraction if they did lose him, in the same way that they undeniably improved when Roy was hurt last year. But there are plenty of NHL players that I would rather have than him.

 

Also, the complaint that too many Sabres first round picks don't make it is outdated right now. Our first rounders in 2005 and 2006 (Zagrapan and Persson) didn't amount to anything and we didn't have a pick in 2007, but since 2008: Myers, Ennis, Kassian, Pysyk, and Armia. Of those five, Armia is the only one I'm worried about but he's a teenager playing in a men's league and has the highest ceiling out of anyone in the organization (possibly with the exception of Myers).

 

Perhaps it's outdated, but I think it's fair to evaluate DR based on the complete record of 1st-rounders during his tenure. Cutting off the analysis at 2008 and later is a cherry-picking analysis -- and one that may not hold water, since Pysyk and Armia could turn out to be complete washouts.

[Ghost of Dwight Drane]

Here's a list of our last few second round picks - Luke Adam, Drew Schiestal, TJ Brennan, Mike Weber, Jhonas Enroth,

 

Darcy has become a much better drafter over time, and there are still some very good prospects available in the second round. By the third, its pretty much a blur. In the NFL, that doesn't happen until the 5th.

 

Perhaps Darcy overvaluing draft picks was due to the fact that young players on entry level contracts are cheap, established players are more expensive, prior to the regime change he had a hard time enticing free agents to come to Buffalo, so the only way to field a competitive team under the budgetary constraints and reputation within the league was to draft and develop his own players until they became worth more than the franchise could afford?

 

Good point about fielding cheaper team....but going forward, the point still stands about overvaluing the pick itself.

 

What is the current value of those 2nd round picks you mentioned, and what is the time value of those picks involved? Could you even get a 2012 2nd round pick straight up for any of those picks you mentioned? Even if someone gave you a 1st for Enroth or Adam, You used a 2nd pick in 2006 on Enroth and in 2008 on Adam. Isn't the 6 and 4 years between picks worth much more than moving up maybe 10-30 picks a combined 10 years later?

 

Would you rather have drafted Bennan and Schiestal in 2007, or would you rather have traded them for Gary Roberts and Andy Sutton on a 2007 President's Trophy team that still had Briere and Drury and was probably just those 2 gritty moves away from getting to the Cup?

 

Could you get a 2012 pick for either of those 2 players today?......5 years later?

 

Derek Roy and Pominville were probably the best 1-2 punch Darcy has drafted in the 2nd round......and here we are 11 DRAFTS LATER, still waiting for them to mature and truly lead the team.

 

That is why I say the draft pick and prospect route is not the way to go. I agree that difference makers are usually only found at a high rate in the top of the draft...and that is even a crapshoot. There is nothing wrong with a balance, but the best players on this team over the past 7 years (Drury, Briere, Vanek, Miller) were acquired in 2 trades, a #5 overall pick, and a 5th round pick. It seems that building your team around constant turnover of draft picks really only leads to extended mediocrity.

[Robviously]

Perhaps it's outdated, but I think it's fair to evaluate DR based on the complete record of 1st-rounders during his tenure. Cutting off the analysis at 2008 and later is a cherry-picking analysis -- and one that may not hold water, since Pysyk and Armia could turn out to be complete washouts.

It's fair to evaluate him based on his entire tenure, but I would put extra weight on his recent years. We all know they switched to video scouting but maybe they changed how they evaluate prospects in general. Maybe they have different scouts, or different scouts have more sway with who gets picked. Whatever happened, I think the last 5 years have been the team's best when it comes to drafting under Regier.

 

I do think this matters in that we're evaluating him to project what he would do in 2012 if he's still our GM. If he (or the team) figured something out a few years ago that's helping them have better drafts, I'm happy to keep them in place and forget that picks like Artem Kruikov (instead of Brooks Orpik!) or Marek Zagrapan ever happened. (The Kruikov pick is still the worst pick Regier was ever responsible for, BTW.)

[Sabres Fan in NS]

Definitely. Lucic is what the Sabres are dying for.

 

I would also make that trade, but the Bruins would never go for it.

[korab rules]

Good point about fielding cheaper team....but going forward, the point still stands about overvaluing the pick itself.

 

What is the current value of those 2nd round picks you mentioned, and what is the time value of those picks involved? Could you even get a 2012 2nd round pick straight up for any of those picks you mentioned? Even if someone gave you a 1st for Enroth or Adam, You used a 2nd pick in 2006 on Enroth and in 2008 on Adam. Isn't the 6 and 4 years between picks worth much more than moving up maybe 10-30 picks a combined 10 years later?

 

Would you rather have drafted Bennan and Schiestal in 2007, or would you rather have traded them for Gary Roberts and Andy Sutton on a 2007 President's Trophy team that still had Briere and Drury and was probably just those 2 gritty moves away from getting to the Cup?

 

Could you get a 2012 pick for either of those 2 players today?......5 years later?

 

Derek Roy and Pominville were probably the best 1-2 punch Darcy has drafted in the 2nd round......and here we are 11 DRAFTS LATER, still waiting for them to mature and truly lead the team.

 

That is why I say the draft pick and prospect route is not the way to go. I agree that difference makers are usually only found at a high rate in the top of the draft...and that is even a crapshoot. There is nothing wrong with a balance, but the best players on this team over the past 7 years (Drury, Briere, Vanek, Miller) were acquired in 2 trades, a #5 overall pick, and a 5th round pick. It seems that building your team around constant turnover of draft picks really only leads to extended mediocrity.

 

It isn't about what I would have rather done - it is about what Regier had to do under the circumstances he was dealing with - move draft picks and prospects for rentals and he blows the operational model in effect at that time - can it be done now? Maybe - at the upper reaches of the salary cap world where you have to overpay for the very best free agents you also need quality young cheap labor to fill out the roster. That is a lot easier to do when you have some quality prospects in your organization.

 

You are criticizing Regier for a mindset and actions you anticipate he will make when their is no basis for doing so - he has never been in a situation with unlimited resources before. Will he continue to conduct business in the same way? Time will tell. I'm interested to see what he does with the rope.

 

You say Darcy overvalues draft picks? That may be - but what is he supposed to do with them - trade draft picks for quality established players? Draft picks aren't what acquires them, unless they are overpaid/underproducing about to become free agents, and even then it usually only occurs at the deadline. Quality prospects have more value than draft picks, unless you are talking a top 5 first round pick.

[nfreeman]

It's fair to evaluate him based on his entire tenure, but I would put extra weight on his recent years. We all know they switched to video scouting but maybe they changed how they evaluate prospects in general. Maybe they have different scouts, or different scouts have more sway with who gets picked. Whatever happened, I think the last 5 years have been the team's best when it comes to drafting under Regier.

 

I do think this matters in that we're evaluating him to project what he would do in 2012 if he's still our GM. If he (or the team) figured something out a few years ago that's helping them have better drafts, I'm happy to keep them in place and forget that picks like Artem Kruikov (instead of Brooks Orpik!) or Marek Zagrapan ever happened. (The Kruikov pick is still the worst pick Regier was ever responsible for, BTW.)

 

The bolded part is an excellent point.

 

As for worst ever picks -- this could hurt, but:

 

1998 -- Kalinin over Robyn Regehr & Simon Gagne

1999 -- Barrett Heisten over Martin Havlat

2000 -- You already mentioned Kriukov over Orpik; the Sabres also could've taken Volchenkov or Kronwall

2002 -- Keith Ballard and Paille over Alex Semin and Cam Ward

 

(Actually, I have to admit that I was expecting much worse -- I guess most of the guys that I remember the Sabres drafting and never panning out were picked pre-DR.)

 

I would also make that trade, but the Bruins would never go for it.

 

Exactly.

[Sabres Fan in NS]

Would you rather have drafted Bennan and Schiestal in 2007, or would you rather have traded them for Gary Roberts and Andy Sutton on a 2007 President's Trophy team that still had Briere and Drury and was probably just those 2 gritty moves away from getting to the Cup?

 

 

Absolutely.

 

Edit ... absolutely. I make those trades.

[LabattBlue]

The league is full of great goalies and I think we could find someone comparable much easier than we could find a comparable replacement for Vanek.

Ask Philly how easy it is to find good goaltending? <_<

[Ghost of Dwight Drane]

It isn't about what I would have rather done - it is about what Regier had to do under the circumstances he was dealing with - move draft picks and prospects for rentals and he blows the operational model in effect at that time - can it be done now? Maybe - i at the upper reaches of the salary cap world where you have to overpay for the very best free agents you also need quality young cheap labor to fill out the roster. That is a lot easier to do when you have some quality prospects in your organization.

 

You are criticizing Regier for a mindset and actions you anticipate he will make when their is no basis for doing so - he has never been in a situation with unlimited resources before. Will he continue to conduct business in the same way? Time will tell. I'm interested to see what he does with the rope.

 

But what I am doing fairly, at the very least, is showing you examples of current values, and time values of Darcy's picks, and just how good is this current team and franchise? He had last trading deadline and all offseason and close to 40% of this season to make a change in both A) Team composition/ skill vs grit.....and B) Value your own picks vs. outside resources. He was allowed to spend well over the cap, and structure contracts in such a heavy up-front cash laiden fashion that many teams weren't able to compete with the offers. I will agree that if Ehrhoff is the type of guy you want on the team....then he made a positive, agressive move to trade a pick for his rights. He did trade 2 youngish prospects for Regehr...I applaud that. But we are spent above and beyond any team in the league and are just treading water as a middling group who has shown nothing close to competing with the better teams in the league.

[Robviously]

The bolded part is an excellent point.

 

As for worst ever picks -- this could hurt, but:

 

1998 -- Kalinin over Robyn Regehr & Simon Gagne

1999 -- Barrett Heisten over Martin Havlat

2000 -- You already mentioned Kriukov over Orpik; the Sabres also could've taken Volchenkov or Kronwall

2002 -- Keith Ballard and Paille over Alex Semin and Cam Ward

 

(Actually, I have to admit that I was expecting much worse -- I guess most of the guys that I remember the Sabres drafting and never panning out were picked pre-DR.)

Kriukov over Orpik always wins it for me. We took a tall, but light, guy with concussion problems over a big, bruising local guy. The Sabres being small and soft isn't a new problem and even in 2000 it felt like forever since the Sabres had a huge defenseman who was actually scary. Instead of making the obvious choice (and it was SO obvious leading up to the draft that it'd be a miracle if Orpik fell to us), they got cute and took the flashier pick (i.e. they pulled a "Bills").

 

Kriukov never got to North America and never really even amounted to anything in Russia. Orpik reached his full potential and was a key player when the Pens won the Cup.

 

Ask Philly how easy it is to find good goaltending? <_<

You mean the team that bounced us from the playoffs last year? <_<

[LabattBlue]

You mean the team that bounced us from the playoffs last year? <_<

If their goaltending has so great last year, why did they pay Bryzgalov huge $$$ in the offseason.

 

PS Do I really need to list how many goaltenders Philly has used over the last decade or so?

[Robviously]

If their goaltending has so great last year, why did they pay Bryzgalov huge $$$ in the offseason.

 

PS Do I really need to list how many goaltenders Philly has used over the last decade or so?

You can if you want, it'll only prove my point. The Flyers have been better than us over the last decade and we've had the better goalies. See how much difference it made?

[korab rules]

But what I am doing fairly, at the very least, is showing you examples of current values, and time values of Darcy's picks, and just how good is this current team and franchise? He had last trading deadline and all offseason and close to 40% of this season to make a change in both A) Team composition/ skill vs grit.....and B) Value your own picks vs. outside resources. He was allowed to spend well over the cap, and structure contracts in such a heavy up-front cash laiden fashion that many teams weren't able to compete with the offers. I will agree that if Ehrhoff is the type of guy you want on the team....then he made a positive, agressive move to trade a pick for his rights. He did trade 2 youngish prospects for Regehr...I applaud that. But we are spent above and beyond any team in the league and are just treading water as a middling group who has shown nothing close to competing with the better teams in the league.

The new regime had one trade deadline (with no time to prep for it) and one off season to tinker with the roster. They have a stable full of prospects and money to burn. Chastising this administration for perceived failures of the old administration (even if many of the players are the same, the rules of engagement have changed dramatically) is a waste of time, but feel free to continue doing so.

 

So far they have acquired Regehr, Ehrhoff, and Leino - had all hit the open market they would have been 3 of the top four players available. The best player available had no intentions of coming to Buffalo, but even so they explored that option. They are linked to every major player who is allegedly available. They have re-signed several players and structured their contracts in such a way that is very advantageous for the organization and it's future.

 

Yeah, they're not playing very well right now. Call me when they miss the playoffs.