Miller is overpaid

[Eleven]

Wait a minute. Even if there is solid methodology behind this study, and there isn't, it puts Miller 21 out of 49 in terms of value, which means he is close to where he should be, and slightly UNDERpaid, no? In other words, Tim Thomas, at No. 1, is the most underpaid, and Rick DiPietro, at no. 49, is the most overpaid. The goalie at position 25 is the one who is neither overpaid nor underpaid.

[donteatyellowsnow]

But Luongo looked like a colander during that entire final and Miller was hung out to dry in game 7 by a team that literally didn't show up... I think Miller is probably a little over hyped and he hasn't gotten his team a trophy so I get what your alluding too but Luongo is def overrated and def one of the reasons game 7 in vancouver went from "lets win the cup" to "lets riot in the streets"

 

Playoff Numbers for last 2 seasons

Luongo's : 10-11 .914sv% 2.56gaa / 09-10 .895% 3.22gaa

 

Miller's: 10-11 .917sv% 2.93gaa / 09-10 .926% 2.34gaa

 

Why just the last 2 seasons? Let's go career playoff numbers.

 

GP W L T MIN GA SV GAA SV% SO

 

Miller 47 25 22 - 2946 121 1457 2.46 .917 3

 

Luongo 59 32 27 - 3599 150 1804 2.50 .917 5

 

Amazing how eerily similar those playoff numbers compare to each other.

[wonderbread]

Wait a minute. Even if there is solid methodology behind this study, and there isn't, it puts Miller 21 out of 49 in terms of value, which means he is close to where he should be, and slightly UNDERpaid, no? In other words, Tim Thomas, at No. 1, is the most underpaid, and Rick DiPietro, at no. 49, is the most overpaid. The goalie at position 25 is the one who is neither overpaid nor underpaid.

 

 

There's no room for reason here. :blink:

[apuszczalowski]

In high school, we were required to enter a local "science fair" at lease once before we graduated. So my partner and I devised some stupid premises for a project -- is a right handed shooter more or less effective than a left handed shooter against a right handed goalie, and vice versa. Then we threw in some other variables like which shot type is most effective: slapshot, wrist shot, snap shot, etc. Then we went down to the rink, played hockey for two hours, took a few pictures and captured a short video to "test" these different variables. Long story short, the project had absolutely NOTHING to do with actual science and was a total and complete "take the easiest way out" route on our part, with some fancy language and big words that made it sound scientific thrown in. :lol:

 

Obviously the masterminds behind this project put in a little more work than we did, but ultimately I think it's impossible to come up with truly accurate results for this type of thing because everything is so situation-dependent. Does this "study" weigh saves on snipers like Malkin or Kovalchuk more heavily than saves on a Gaustad or Avery? Etc.

This sounds like you guys could have been on to something with this thinking. Did you ever try to get any government grants to help you test this to get to a conclusion? ;)

[shrader]

Wait a minute. Even if there is solid methodology behind this study, and there isn't, it puts Miller 21 out of 49 in terms of value, which means he is close to where he should be, and slightly UNDERpaid, no? In other words, Tim Thomas, at No. 1, is the most underpaid, and Rick DiPietro, at no. 49, is the most overpaid. The goalie at position 25 is the one who is neither overpaid nor underpaid.

 

Not really. Their metric gives a ranking that is completely independent of salary. If it was in any way accurate, they'd be saying that 20 other goalies were better than Miller last year. So I guess you should reason that Miller should be the 21st highest paid goalie, which would mean he is in fact overpaid.

[MattPie]

I believe the word you were looking for is...SIEVE...

 

it rolls off the tongue much nicer than colander :rolleyes:

 

I like "Large Particle Separation Filter".

[LGR4GM]

Why just the last 2 seasons? Let's go career playoff numbers.

 

GP W L T MIN GA SV GAA SV% SO

 

Miller 47 25 22 - 2946 121 1457 2.46 .917 3

 

Luongo 59 32 27 - 3599 150 1804 2.50 .917 5

 

Amazing how eerily similar those playoff numbers compare to each other.

so miller is better... He has 29 less goals allowed in 12 less games played so Miller is better than Luongo. Miller has never had at any point in his career (with the exception of 05-06) the type or depth of defense that Luongo had this past season. I am sorry but Miller is a better goaltender than Luongo. Is he a great deal better? No. But he is statistically better and he makes less money, and is younger, and has played for a team that was garbage for 3 years (08,09,10) seasons respectively. The only way the sabres make the 2010 playoffs is because miller brought them there. The only way the Bruins win the 2011 Stanley cup is because Tim Thomas made it happen. I think miller can make it happen and I think Luongo choked last year, so I think miller is better

[Weave]

.... But he is statistically better ....

 

I have no desire to step in the middle of your pissing match but this is an inaccurate statement. Miller is not statistically better than Luongo, at least not in the playoffs. Unless you really think that 2 goals over 47 games is statistically significant.

[LGR4GM]

I have no desire to step in the middle of your pissing match but this is an inaccurate statement. Miller is not statistically better than Luongo, at least not in the playoffs. Unless you really think that 2 goals over 47 games is statistically significant.

idk where you are pulling 2 goals over 47 games from but yes statistically miller has a better post season averages although its just by a hair. Miller has 29 fewer goals in 47 games than luongo does in his 59 games, if thats the stat you are referencing

 

Also its not a pissing match, he thinks luongo is better and i disagree, since neither of us play hockey in the nhl this is nothing more than opinon. Miller could be better in the real world, Luongo could be better.

 

 

Edit: Technically you are right if you do the math, Miller would have 195 goals in 59 gp if his average of 2.58gaa held up for those 29 games. So I am in error and Miller would be statistically worse if they both played the same number of games and he stayed constant with his 2.58gaa (Luongo's is 2.54)

[donteatyellowsnow]

so miller is better... He has 29 less goals allowed in 12 less games played so Miller is better than Luongo. Miller has never had at any point in his career (with the exception of 05-06) the type or depth of defense that Luongo had this past season. I am sorry but Miller is a better goaltender than Luongo. Is he a great deal better? No. But he is statistically better and he makes less money, and is younger, and has played for a team that was garbage for 3 years (08,09,10) seasons respectively. The only way the sabres make the 2010 playoffs is because miller brought them there. The only way the Bruins win the 2011 Stanley cup is because Tim Thomas made it happen. I think miller can make it happen and I think Luongo choked last year, so I think miller is better

 

Who has the better resume?

 

Think what you want and that's ok, but to say Miller played on worse teams than Luongo is just flat out wrong. I'll give you last years Canucks team was loaded but the Florida teams he played on were absolutely horrible, way worse than anything Miller has played on, and Luongo put up impressive GAA and SV% for those teams despite getting a ton of loses and few wins.

[LGR4GM]

Who has the better resume?

 

Think what you want and that's ok, but to say Miller played on worse teams than Luongo is just flat out wrong. I'll give you last years Canucks team was loaded but the Florida teams he played on were absolutely horrible, way worse than anything Miller has played on, and Luongo put up impressive GAA and SV% for those teams despite getting a ton of loses and few wins.

and did those florida teams make the playoffs? which is what we are talking about, playoff stats. Luongo has been on a better team with the only exception being the 06-07 sabres. (Luongo has been on the Canucks since 06) The canucks have missed the playoffs only once since 06-07. the sabres have missed 2 times and been no further than the first round (unlike the canucks who have gone further) so Yes the Canucks it would seem have had a better team than the sabres, so Ryan Miller I believe is a better GT as I still have not seen him have the meltdowns that Lunogo does.

[carpandean]

I definitely need to hit the lottery, because there are a ton of very interesting regressions that could be run regarding this sport but unfortunately I don't have the time to gather / enter the data on my own nor the $'s to pay some kids to gather / enter it for me.

Ha, you and me both! :thumbsup:

[RazielSabre]

I have one rule, Never read to much in to sports stats. They can only count for about 10% of what actually happens. IMHO.

[donteatyellowsnow]

and did those florida teams make the playoffs? which is what we are talking about, playoff stats. Luongo has been on a better team with the only exception being the 06-07 sabres. (Luongo has been on the Canucks since 06) The canucks have missed the playoffs only once since 06-07. the sabres have missed 2 times and been no further than the first round (unlike the canucks who have gone further) so Yes the Canucks it would seem have had a better team than the sabres, so Ryan Miller I believe is a better GT as I still have not seen him have the meltdowns that Lunogo does.

 

Crosby's goal, gold medal game comes to mind!

[LGR4GM]

Crosby's goal, gold medal game comes to mind!

thats all you got? The Canadian team that was supposed to win the gold on home soil, won it over and American team that was not even supposed to medal and only did because of Ryan Miller? fail. If you hate miller and the sabres so much why are you a "fan"?

[donteatyellowsnow]

thats all you got? The Canadian team that was supposed to win the gold on home soil, won it over and American team that was not even supposed to medal and only did because of Ryan Miller? fail. If you hate miller and the sabres so much why are you a "fan"?

 

It's not about the game, it's about the goal captain obvious! He melted down on that goal and admitted as much.

[LGR4GM]

It's not about the game, it's about the goal captain obvious! He melted down on that goal and admitted as much.

he said he miss played it. never said melted down... a melt down is what happened to luongo in the finals. Watch hockey those goals happen a lot where the shooter hesitates then slips one in. It wasn't a great or terrible goal. Basically you are basing everything about miller off of 1 goal in 1 game that was not even an NHL game?

[Weave]

idk where you are pulling 2 goals over 47 games from but yes statistically miller has a better post season averages although its just by a hair. Miller has 29 fewer goals in 47 games than luongo does in his 59 games, if thats the stat you are referencing

 

Also its not a pissing match, he thinks luongo is better and i disagree, since neither of us play hockey in the nhl this is nothing more than opinon. Miller could be better in the real world, Luongo could be better.

 

 

Edit: Technically you are right if you do the math, Miller would have 195 goals in 59 gp if his average of 2.58gaa held up for those 29 games. So I am in error and Miller would be statistically worse if they both played the same number of games and he stayed constant with his 2.58gaa (Luongo's is 2.54)

 

How else would you do it other than math?

 

In fact, to take the comparison further, their combined playoff and regular season stats are very similar too.

 

Luongo 2.53 .919 308 wins in 672 games (45.8 win %)

Miller 2.57 .915 221 wins in 399 games (55.4 win %)

 

So, playoffs they have eerily similar stats and total stats are too similar to have anything meaningful to quibble about. They've both had lousy teams and really, really good teams in front of them. About the only difference between them is Luongo averages more shutouts per game played than Miller does (8.1% vs 5.5%). I think Miller = Luongo is a very defensible argument.

[LGR4GM]

How else would you do it other than math?

 

In fact, to take the comparison further, their combined playoff and regular season stats are very similar too.

 

Luongo 2.53 .919 308 wins in 672 games (45.8 win %)

Miller 2.57 .915 221 wins in 399 games (55.4 win %)

 

So, playoffs they have eerily similar stats and total stats are too similar to have anything meaningful to quibble about. They've both had lousy teams and really, really good teams in front of them. About the only difference between them is Luongo averages more shutouts per game played than Miller does (8.1% vs 5.5%). I think Miller = Luongo is a very defensible argument.

ok I just think miller is better

[donteatyellowsnow]

he said he miss played it. never said melted down... a melt down is what happened to luongo in the finals. Watch hockey those goals happen a lot where the shooter hesitates then slips one in. It wasn't a great or terrible goal. Basically you are basing everything about miller off of 1 goal in 1 game that was not even an NHL game?

 

Other than 2 shutouts last year how about giving up 4 per game in the other 5 games? Boston? outplayed by a rookie backup none the less, Ottawa before that, Ray freaking Emery beat him, Really! Miller is so great, right? Couldn't beat Bob, Rask, Emery. C'mon now. So Luongo didn't play well, it's yet to be determined if Miller can ever get as far as Luongo. Miller has to be better than the Emerys, Rasks, and Bobs of the world. Luongo has been, he just wasn't last year against the best team and best goalie in the game. So he had a bad series, Miller has had 3 in a row!

[LGR4GM]

Other than 2 shutouts last year how about giving up 4 per game in the other 5 games? Boston? outplayed by a rookie backup none the less, Ottawa before that, Ray freaking Emery beat him, Really! Miller is so great, right? Couldn't beat Bob, Rask, Emery. C'mon now. So Luongo didn't play well, it's yet to be determined if Miller can ever get as far as Luongo. Miller has to be better than the Emerys, Rasks, and Bobs of the world. Luongo has been, he just wasn't last year against the best team and best goalie in the game. So he had a bad series, Miller has had 3 in a row!

so you are going to disregard the series miller lost to ward because we had no defense? Also Ward went on to win the cup that season. Also Tuuka Rask is one of the best goalies in the league. A lot more goes into my feelings on miller than just I like him more than Luongo.

 

The sabres have had 2 bad series in a row. The Ottawa series miller allowed 1 goal and his team couldn't give him any offense. this is pointless you hate miller, fine. I like miller.

 

I'll say this if Miller has a bad year this year I think it gives us a good answer because he has one of the best defenses in front of him and should be able to take us deep, if not your right the problem might be him... of course I hear a lot of players talk about the sabres and all of them say things like "they have ryan miller and he is one of the best in the game" you don't get those honors just willy nilly and you don't get talked about in a convo with Thomas just because.

[donteatyellowsnow]

so you are going to disregard the series miller lost to ward because we had no defense? Also Ward went on to win the cup that season. Also Tuuka Rask is one of the best goalies in the league. A lot more goes into my feelings on miller than just I like him more than Luongo.

 

 

No he is not.

 

Only going back to the Sens series because that's when his losing streak started. When is he going to turn it around and win a series? There is pressure on him this year and i'm curious to see how he reacts. Hopefully good because after all I am a Sabres fan and want them to win.

[Taro T]

Other than 2 shutouts last year how about giving up 4 per game in the other 5 games? Boston? outplayed by a rookie backup none the less, Ottawa before that, Ray freaking Emery beat him, Really! Miller is so great, right? Couldn't beat Bob, Rask, Emery. C'mon now. So Luongo didn't play well, it's yet to be determined if Miller can ever get as far as Luongo. Miller has to be better than the Emerys, Rasks, and Bobs of the world. Luongo has been, he just wasn't last year against the best team and best goalie in the game. So he had a bad series, Miller has had 3 in a row!

Wow. Sorry, that's all I've got. If this is seriously where you are going, that's all I've got. Wow.

 

How can you forget that he lost to not only Cam Ward, but Martin Gerber as well? Can't we get a bit of a rant for losing to Martin friggin' Gerber?

[MattPie]

Wow. Sorry, that's all I've got. If this is seriously where you are going, that's all I've got. Wow.

 

How can you forget that he lost to not only Cam Ward, but Martin Gerber as well? Can't we get a bit of a rant for losing to Martin friggin' Gerber?

 

What about Boucher and Leighton? They beat Thomas and Rask in 2010, so therefore they're at the top of the game!

[LGR4GM]

No he is not.

 

Only going back to the Sens series because that's when his losing streak started. When is he going to turn it around and win a series? There is pressure on him this year and i'm curious to see how he reacts. Hopefully good because after all I am a Sabres fan and want them to win.

Your saying that there are 15 goalies better than Rask in this league, right now? I get Miller, Thomas, Luongo (maybe) Rinne, Price, Niemi, Bryzgalov (maybe) quick, and I think that about covers them... might have missed a couple but Rask is a very good goalie and is a #1 on any team other than a team with a guy like Thomas...

 

Rask's regular season numbers the year Miller lost the series to him: 1.97gaa .931SV%

 

Also his losing streak is directly tied to the team in front of him which has been questionable at best for 3 of the last 4 years.

 

What about Boucher and Leighton? They beat Thomas and Rask in 2010, so therefore they're at the top of the game!

Exactly, there is more that goes into a playoff series than your goalie and the fact that Miller has had either no offensive support or as in last years case very little defensive support speaks more to the culture of the team and quality of the defense and forwards than it does reflect on miller... who btw has made some spectacular saves along the way to being called "one of the best goalies in the nhl" by numerous media outlets as well as players on every team in the NHL.