All About Natural Disasters

[Ghost of Dwight Drane]

I flew into boca raton yesterday, hit bad turbulence, its been rainy here and windy, but everyone down here is laughing at this storm. Its gonna be a different story when the fronts collide up north. Ill be flying home Monday afternoon, should be a bumpy flight. They estimate that millions could lose power in the DC area. And because many trees still have leaves in that area, the surface area is greatly increased, which in turn makes the wind that much more damaging. I don't think well see snow in buffalo, but extended periods of high winds and heavy rain seem likely. But hey how often are weathermen actually right.

 

People don't understand the dynamics with the front coming down. If you are used to looking at pinwheels in August, the hurricane itself doesn't look impressive on radar or with it only being a Cat. 1......but when it collides and transitions to a more classic winteresque storm, it will explode, and instead of wrapping all that energy around itself, will spread it out. Instead of being a Ferrari, it will be a F-350 with nitrous boosters.

 

The pressure is going lower now, and I have to catch up with the overnight models, but this could be a doozy for even Buffalo. 20-40MPH winds for 48 hours and as of last night, there were gusts to 80 projected. When this stalls, we will be thankfull this isn't snow. The lake effect on top of the regular precip when the winds come off the lakes.....it would be freaky.

 

I went to Wegmans last night preparing as if we could be out of power even here for 3-5 days. All was normal. Buffalo may end up with 3 months of rain in 3 days.

[Stoner]

It's hard not to be cynical and expect most of the wind to come from the talking heads. You can cry wolf only so many times. I hope to be right.

 

[Weave]

People don't understand the dynamics with the front coming down. If you are used to looking at pinwheels in August, the hurricane itself doesn't look impressive on radar or with it only being a Cat. 1......but when it collides and transitions to a more classic winteresque storm, it will explode, and instead of wrapping all that energy around itself, will spread it out. Instead of being a Ferrari, it will be a F-350 with nitrous boosters.

 

The pressure is going lower now, and I have to catch up with the overnight models, but this could be a doozy for even Buffalo. 20-40MPH winds for 48 hours and as of last night, there were gusts to 80 projected. When this stalls, we will be thankfull this isn't snow. The lake effect on top of the regular precip when the winds come off the lakes.....it would be freaky.

 

I went to Wegmans last night preparing as if we could be out of power even here for 3-5 days. All was normal. Buffalo may end up with 3 months of rain in 3 days.

 

NWS website seems to be less dramatic than what you are describing. 3-5 inches of rain for the event. They are somewhat concerned about wind damage but it is mostly because it will be a wind out of the north, something not usually seen here so they aren't sure how many trees will suffer for it.

 

NWS is saying that creek flooding may be a problem given the rain today and tomorrow before the frankenstorm gets here.

 

AS SANDY MOVES INLAND WE ARE EXPECTING SEVERAL PERIODS OF RAIN IN THE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME...WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH TUESDAY. WE WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IN THE GRIDS. IT IS STILL A LITTLE EARLY TO FOCUS WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL...AND HOW MUCH BUT SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED.

 

THE HIGHEST WINDS SPEEDS WILL LIKELY COME MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY BASED OFF BOTH THE CURRENT MODEL RUNS OF THE 27/00Z ECMWF AND GFS. WITH THIS WIND DIRECTION THE AREA MOST LIKELY IMPACTED BY THE WINDS WILL BE LAKE ONTARIO AND ITS SOUTHERN SHORELINES. PAST TROPICAL OR DEEP SURFACE LOW EVENTS HAVE SHOWN EVEN SUBWARNING WIND SPEEDS CAN FALL TREES AS THE NORTHEAST WIND DIRECTION IS NOT A COMMON HIGH SPEED DIRECTION FOR OUR REGION.

[Sabres Fan in NS]

Another great life lesson from my very wise Grandmother (if you all recall anything of value in this life I learned from her) ... "it's better to be safe than sorry".

 

People do not tend to take these warnings seriously.

 

Back in September 2003 Halifax and all of NS was warned about hurricane Juan. People did not listen. After the cat. 2 strom came ashore, with a direct hit on Halifax, it was too late. Most of the city was without power for a week +. We were without for 10 days. The army had to be called in to clean up the mess. Now people listen.

 

GoDD, my Grandma would be proud. Let the fools mock you, but at least you will be ready for the worst and hoping for the best. For what it's worth, we have a storm kit ready, an evacuation plan in place, a full tank of gas (gas pumps won't work without electricity), cash on hand (ATMs will not work without power) ...

[wjag]

People are taking notice here in MD. There is not a D-cell battery to be found anywhere. We've provisioned. I'm preparing for 7 days without power. 4 of the tracks have this storm coming directly at us (within 50 miles). I'm just hoping we get through Sunday night before CrapTV goes out. I'd hate to miss Homeland, Walking Dead and the Mentalist.

[SwampD]

People are taking notice here in MD. There is not a D-cell battery to be found anywhere. We've provisioned. I'm preparing for 7 days without power. 4 of the tracks have this storm coming directly at us (within 50 miles). I'm just hoping we get through Sunday night before CrapTV goes out. I'd hate to miss Homeland, Walking Dead and the Mentalist.

Nobody ever thinks to go to toys-r-us for batteries at times like this. They have stacks.

[wjag]

 

Nobody ever thinks to go to toys-r-us for batteries at times like this. They have stacks.

 

Au contrarie Pierre. As soon as you walk in, a sign says "We have no D-Cells". As I said, you can't find a D-cell battery anywhere in my county.

[TrueBlueGED]

I really don't mean to offend anybody, but this culture of panic we have is ridiculous. Every little storm people freak out and stock up. Having worked at Wegmans for 12 years, I know for a fact we absolutely CRUSH projections when bad weather is predicted....and by bad, I mean as mild as prediction of 2-4" of snowfall. It's one thing to stock up and be fully prepared if you're going to be directly hit by a hurricane....it's another to freak out over a few inches of rain and high winds or a few inches of snow in an area that gets it all the time. Along the Eastern coastline? I get it. In Buffalo? Sorry, but no, this isn't the rapture, or even the Blizzard of '77. And yes, some of this rant is brought to you by the fact I just worked a nightmare day stocking enough bottled water to survive Hurricane Andrew.

Edited October 27, 2012 by TrueBluePhD

[darksabre]

I really don't mean to offend anybody, but this culture of panic we have is ridiculous. Every little storm people freak out and stock up. Having worked at Wegmans for 12 years, I know for a fact we absolutely CRUSH projections when bad weather is predicted....and by bad, I mean as mild as prediction of 2-4" of snowfall. It's one thing to stock up and be fully prepared if you're going to be directly hit by a hurricane....it's another to freak out over a few inches of rain and high winds or a few inches of snow in an area that gets it all the time. Along the Eastern coastline? I get it. In Buffalo? Sorry, but no, this isn't the rapture, or even the Blizzard of '77. And yes, some of this rant is brought to you by the fact I just worked a nightmare day stocking enough bottled water to survive Hurricane Andrew.

 

Well here's the real kicker: why do people always wait to stock up?

 

My parents always had supplies ready year round. At least the bare minimums like a dozen gallon jugs of bottled water, powdered milk, batteries, candles and canned foods. Not to mention the luxury of a generator and gas for it, and chopped and dried wood in the shed to have fires to heat the living room and cook over.

 

In my apartment I keep a bunch of pork n beans, jugs of water, batteries, and those little green propane cylinders for the portable grill. Obviously we're probably going to be less prepared since space is limited, but it's not hard to keep something around all the time. It's a one time-expense that you might never need!

[TrueBlueGED]

Well here's the real kicker: why do people always wait to stock up?

 

My parents always had supplies ready year round. At least the bare minimums like a dozen gallon jugs of bottled water, powdered milk, batteries, candles and canned foods. Not to mention the luxury of a generator and gas for it, and chopped and dried wood in the shed to have fires to heat the living room and cook over.

 

In my apartment I keep a bunch of pork n beans, jugs of water, batteries, and those little green propane cylinders for the portable grill. Obviously we're probably going to be less prepared since space is limited, but it's not hard to keep something around all the time. It's a one time-expense that you might never need!

 

Bottled water is another pet peeve of mine. Completely and totally unnecessary under normal circumstances. Get a Brita or Pur filter and save yourself a crapton of money...I 100% fundamentally do not understand people who use bottled water as their primary drinking source (not saying you are, just in general). Most of the bottled water is the exact same thing that comes out of your tap anyway. I mean bottled water is a relatively new phenomenon....what the hell did people do 30 years ago? Die? Nope.

 

Edit: As to the substance of your post, I completely agree. It's always smart to have extra non-perishable food on hand and makes total sense.

Edited October 27, 2012 by TrueBluePhD

[darksabre]

Bottled water is another pet peeve of mine. Completely and totally unnecessary under normal circumstances. Get a Brita or Pur filter and save yourself a crapton of money...I 100% fundamentally do not understand people who use bottled water as their primary drinking source (not saying you are, just in general). Most of the bottled water is the exact same thing that comes out of your tap anyway. I mean bottled water is a relatively new phenomenon....what the hell did people do 30 years ago? Die? Nope.

 

Edit: As to the substance of your post, I completely agree. It's always smart to have extra non-perishable food on hand and makes total sense.

 

No kidding. I tend to try not to buy it because it makes zero sense to me. But having bottle water around is nice in case your heat is out and you have to shut your water off so pipes don't freeze. And who knows if you'll even have water pressure depending on the extent of a storm.

Edited October 27, 2012 by d4rksabre

[Ghost of Dwight Drane]

The media is UNDERreporting this from the beginning because they have recently gotten mocked. The NHC has lost it's mind and is not using Hurricane watches and warnings because it will technically be a non-tropical core once it phases in with the front. Stupid...stupid....stupid.....I see the scoffing here. Maybe ILovePhysics or someone with some weather background can give input on this type of storm.

 

If this does what the models are all projecting, every major city on the mid-atlantic coast will set a record for lowest barometric pressure EVER!

 

Everyone can do what they want.....It will be fun reading the complaint Thursday thread this week though.....if you have internet access.

[Weave]

No kidding. I tend to try not to buy it because it makes zero sense to me. But having bottle water around is nice in case your heat is out and you have to shut your water off so pipes don't freeze. And who knows if you'll even have water pressure depending on the extent of a storm.

 

Homeowners have a ready supply of water even if the water pressure drops. Hot water tanks all have a valve on the bottom of them. If the fecal matter were to hit the air circulation device and we had no electricity and no water pressure I'd still have 40 gallons of fresh potable water at my disposal. If I'm in a situation where that wouldn't be enough I'd hope there would be a national evacuation effort underway for my area.

[darksabre]

Homeowners have a ready supply of water even if the water pressure drops. Hot water tanks all have a valve on the bottom of them. If the fecal matter were to hit the air circulation device and we had no electricity and no water pressure I'd still have 40 gallons of fresh potable water at my disposal. If I'm in a situation where that wouldn't be enough I'd hope there would be a national evacuation effort underway for my area.

 

Valid point. Unfortunately that valve also tends to be incredibly inconvenient for that kind of use. Too low to the ground. Might be able to get a garden hose on it then let pressure do the work, but then you're drinking water out of a garden hose. I might be the only person in my apartment complex with a garden hose too haha

Edited October 27, 2012 by d4rksabre

[Weave]

Valid point. Unfortunately that valve also tends to be incredibly inconvenient for that kind of use. Too low to the ground. Might be able to get a garden hose on it then let pressure do the work, but then you're drinking water out of a garden hose. I might be the only person in my apartment complex with a garden hose too haha

 

 

 

Huh. Most of them are on the side near the bottom. Should be a good 6" of clearance anyway. They are meant to drain the tank and have enough room to get a garden hose attached. I've been through 4 of them in my adulthood and haven't seen one yet that doesn't have room to be drained. They are made with the thought in mind that they have to be drained (on purpose) eventually.

 

The media is UNDERreporting this from the beginning because they have recently gotten mocked. The NHC has lost it's mind and is not using Hurricane watches and warnings because it will technically be a non-tropical core once it phases in with the front. Stupid...stupid....stupid.....I see the scoffing here. Maybe ILovePhysics or someone with some weather background can give input on this type of storm.

 

If this does what the models are all projecting, every major city on the mid-atlantic coast will set a record for lowest barometric pressure EVER!

 

Everyone can do what they want.....It will be fun reading the complaint Thursday thread this week though.....if you have internet access.

 

Methinks you are easily entertained by the thought of impending doom. :P

[TrueBlueGED]

Homeowners have a ready supply of water even if the water pressure drops. Hot water tanks all have a valve on the bottom of them. If the fecal matter were to hit the air circulation device and we had no electricity and no water pressure I'd still have 40 gallons of fresh potable water at my disposal. If I'm in a situation where that wouldn't be enough I'd hope there would be a national evacuation effort underway for my area.

 

Well, I'll just go ahead and add that to the growing list of useful things I didn't know

[Ghost of Dwight Drane]

Methinks you are easily entertained by the thought of impending doom. :P

 

I got laughed at by some people Wednesday night. Now there are $100 million worth of horses stranded in NY because things weren't moved up.

 

There are a lot of smart people here fluffing this off. If that is happening all over the NE, I can only imagine what the average retard is doing.

[Randall Flagg]

 

 

If the fecal matter were to hit the air circulation device

Lol

 

 

Homeowners have a ready supply of water even if the water pressure drops. Hot water tanks all have a valve on the bottom of them.

A few weeks ago our well water ran dry, and I used this to shower before school. It was very helpful, because I needed to go to school, and as stupid as it sounds I refuse to be in public unless showered.

 

And to True, we purchase one pack of bottles of water, and then reuse them for lunches etc. for months and months, until they gradually begin to disappear, and when they do we buy another. I don't understand as well why people would waste money buying bottled water with their weekly groceries.

[Weave]

I got laughed at by some people Wednesday night. Now there are $100 million worth of horses stranded in NY because things weren't moved up.

 

There are a lot of smart people here fluffing this off. If that is happening all over the NE, I can only imagine what the average retard is doing.

 

OK, I really want links to the models you are talking about. I am a bit of a weather geek. The NWS website is near the top of my favorites list. I've been following this for days. The pros that interpret the models at Buffalo NWS office are seeing 3-5" of rain and strong winds. The wind potential is iffy because of the direction. It could be an issue. But the folks at NWS have a hugely different tone than you and they aren't usually bashful if they think we are in for a mess.

[SwampD]

Au contrarie Pierre. As soon as you walk in, a sign says "We have no D-Cells". As I said, you can't find a D-cell battery anywhere in my county.

Impressive. Both that you knew to go there and that they didn't have any.

[Ghost of Dwight Drane]

OK, I really want links to the models you are talking about. I am a bit of a weather geek. The NWS website is near the top of my favorites list. I've been following this for days. The pros that interpret the models at Buffalo NWS office are seeing 3-5" of rain and strong winds. The wind potential is iffy because of the direction. It could be an issue. But the folks at NWS have a hugely different tone than you and they aren't usually bashful if they think we are in for a mess.

 

The NWS won't sound any major alarms until the forcast is concrete. The GFS has consistantly shown 2-3 days of 20MPH+ sustained winds with gusts 60-80MPH. Depending on how the front moves past us run to tun, rain and wind fuctuates. The usual hurricane hits fast and hard, and gets carried off. This is an aircraft carrier and is going to slowly drift around the general area.

 

And I don't see how strong winds and 3-5" is very different from what I have been saying. You will have 2 inches from this weekend alone before Sandy joins in.

 

You don't need to panic, but if you aren't prepared for a constant battering for a few days, you are doing yourself a disservice. Earlier in the week it was unclear if there would be snow involved for Buffalo....and yes, the winds will be comin N/NE.....so if it was freezing, and you had 5 inches of rain translated at 8-10" of snow per inch....then add on everything coming down from Lake Ontario...it could have been a complete disaster. It looks like WV will get the worst of the snow.

 

 

Bloomberg just looked like a complete fool on TV. He tried to do his Henry Winkler impression. Instead he probably just got a few people killed.

[SwampD]

I really don't mean to offend anybody, but this culture of panic we have is ridiculous. Every little storm people freak out and stock up. Having worked at Wegmans for 12 years, I know for a fact we absolutely CRUSH projections when bad weather is predicted....and by bad, I mean as mild as prediction of 2-4" of snowfall. It's one thing to stock up and be fully prepared if you're going to be directly hit by a hurricane....it's another to freak out over a few inches of rain and high winds or a few inches of snow in an area that gets it all the time. Along the Eastern coastline? I get it. In Buffalo? Sorry, but no, this isn't the rapture, or even the Blizzard of '77. And yes, some of this rant is brought to you by the fact I just worked a nightmare day stocking enough bottled water to survive Hurricane Andrew.

Panic make the world go round. Why else do you think that Romney might actually get elected. :devil:

 

As to the storm, I think Ghost is right. The difference with this storm is the time frame. When my house flooded in '07, it was a nor'easter that just hit at the right time: high tide/new moon in April and then it moved on hours later. I think flooding and soaking rain w/ wind will be the big issues with this one. Winds will be stacking up water through an estimated FOUR high tides. Coastal flooding will be huge in the tri-state area. I don't even want to think about the people that we sold our old house to (even though our disclosure was completely honest). And as the ground gets soaked over days, the winds will be hitting the trees, most still with their leaves. I'm planning on several days without power.

 

I still think it's fun.

Edited October 28, 2012 by SwampD

[wjag]

CNN is suggesting the storm could stall for a few days. We could be seeing unprecented flooding in VA, MD, DE, PA and NJ.

[Weave]

so, no link then?

 

An hour ago NWS put up their 1st watches for WNY. Prediction for 60 mph gusts are limited to lake shores, Niagara Escarpment, and the Chautauqua plain. Very significant if that's your locale but the rest of us are looking at a bit less. Certainly not insignificant by any means, especially since the wind is coming from a direction that area tree roots aren't grown to support.

 

Still looking at 2-4" more rain. But the water table is just now hitting normal after a low year. Flooding is expected to be minor unless you live on the Lake Ontario shoreline. 20' waves possible there. :o

 

Sounds to me like the rain will be more nuisance than concern. Wind damage will be hard to predict but if you set yourself up to be OK after the October Surprise storm I see no reason why you'd be overly worried about what comes Monday afternoon.

[SwampD]

so, no link then?

 

An hour ago NWS put up their 1st watches for WNY. Prediction for 60 mph gusts are limited to lake shores, Niagara Escarpment, and the Chautauqua plain. Very significant if that's your locale but the rest of us are looking at a bit less. Certainly not insignificant by any means, especially since the wind is coming from a direction that area tree roots aren't grown to support.

 

Still looking at 2-4" more rain. But the water table is just now hitting normal after a low year. Flooding is expected to be minor unless you live on the Lake Ontario shoreline. 20' waves possible there. :o

 

Sounds to me like the rain will be more nuisance than concern. Wind damage will be hard to predict but if you set yourself up to be OK after the October Surprise storm I see no reason why you'd be overly worried about what comes Monday afternoon.

That is crazy.