All About Natural Disasters

[dEnnis the Menace]

I work in downtown Buffalo - the snow is just beginning to stick to the grass, nothing sticking to the roads yet. I think the weather forecasters neglected to take into account the heat already stored in the ground (after all, it was over 70 on Friday) and that the sun is now high enough that even on a cloudy (and snowy) day, enough solar radiation gets through to heat the roads (blacktop) so that the snow doesn't stick. The temps would have to drop below freezing and it would have to snow a LOT more to get anywhere close to a foot. I'm not buying it.... Oh, and the snow seems to be tapering off as I write this...

 

It all ended up on the 81 corridor in CNY instead of WNY. We weren't supposed to get any snow at my house until they changed the forecast late last night.

[Ghost of Dwight Drane]

Almost all the major models now have Hurricane Sandy hooking into the US mid-Atlantic/NE early next week. There are some crazy projections going on given it is supposed to hook up with a cold front. You could have 100MPH winds and 15 inches of rain on the coast, and 3' of snow inland.

 

The National Weather Service has gone on some special alert that they've never done before in order to capture as much data as possible since this could really knock the daylights out of a huge section of the country. That's what got my interest.

 

It's supposed to be 75 tomorrow.....time to finish up the outside chores!

[wjag]

Almost all the major models now have Hurricane Sandy hooking into the US mid-Atlantic/NE early next week. There are some crazy projections going on given it is supposed to hook up with a cold front. You could have 100MPH winds and 15 inches of rain on the coast, and 3' of snow inland.

 

The National Weather Service has gone on some special alert that they've never done before in order to capture as much data as possible since this could really knock the daylights out of a huge section of the country. That's what got my interest.

 

It's supposed to be 75 tomorrow.....time to finish up the outside chores!

 

Could be the October surprise. Last year we had snow in MD on Halloween and then not again. Redux?

[Ghost of Dwight Drane]

Could be the October surprise. Last year we had snow in MD on Halloween and then not again. Redux?

 

It's on.

 

Agreement from all models and they will be pimping it tonight on national news I would assume. A couple have direct hits on Long Island Tuesday morning and a few range down to your area. The cone is going to shrink most likely.

 

This thing is a monster and who knows what will come of it. Lots of people are going to get smacked though, almost the whole northeast. It will be interesting to see what lingering effects there are for the election.

[MattPie]

I'm curious which models you're talking about. Weather.com and accuweather.com (for instance) has Killington, VT in the 40s all next week. Where is all this snow going to fall if not there?

[JJFIVEOH]

Almost all the major models now have Hurricane Sandy hooking into the US mid-Atlantic/NE early next week. There are some crazy projections going on given it is supposed to hook up with a cold front. You could have 100MPH winds and 15 inches of rain on the coast, and 3' of snow inland.

 

The National Weather Service has gone on some special alert that they've never done before in order to capture as much data as possible since this could really knock the daylights out of a huge section of the country. That's what got my interest.

 

It's supposed to be 75 tomorrow.....time to finish up the outside chores!

 

Don't fall for the sensationalism.

[Ghost of Dwight Drane]

I'm curious which models you're talking about. Weather.com and accuweather.com (for instance) has Killington, VT in the 40s all next week. Where is all this snow going to fall if not there?

 

They don't know where the snow or how much there will be because it depends on the cold front. Most places will probably get rain, but on the western side of the storm, if it is higher elevations or just cold enough, they could measure it in feet. Still have to see where it hits and how it merges

 

Don't fall for the sensationalism.

 

There hasn't been any sensationalism....that's why I pointed it out yesterday. This is like that Dennis Quaid film setting up where the hurricane-like system crashes into a jet cold front and an atmospheric bomb explodes. It is so rare that nobody has said anything yet because of the once in a lifetime sort of pattern that is setting up. Now that all of the models are in synch, you will see serious talk tonight. Still 4 days away, so always a chance for some sort of dud, but this would really nail a lot of people and is pretty serious looking.

 

I sounded my doom alarm last night and talked to the barn because they have a horse shipping to Cali for the breeders cup.....supposed to fly out of NY on Tuesday. Of course the plane charter is saying the same thing as you are, but I told them to pound on them to move it up a few days. By tomorrow, people will be talking about this.

[Sabres Fan in NS]

I'm curious which models you're talking about. Weather.com and accuweather.com (for instance) has Killington, VT in the 40s all next week. Where is all this snow going to fall if not there?

 

National Hurricane Centre in Miami.

 

And they expect Coatesville, PA to be hammered. Per chance you've heard of it?

[MattPie]

National Hurricane Centre in Miami.

 

And they expect Coatesville, PA to be hammered. Per chance you've heard of it?

 

So we're taking Miami's word on snowfall? I'll be ready for my 3/4" storm of the Century then. :) It wouldn't be the first time I've gotten some snow at my house. In 2010 we got two storms a few days apart (both top-10 for SE-PA). It wouldn't have been that bad if they had any clue how to deal with it around here.

Edited October 25, 2012 by MattPie

[JJFIVEOH]

They don't know where the snow or how much there will be because it depends on the cold front. Most places will probably get rain, but on the western side of the storm, if it is higher elevations or just cold enough, they could measure it in feet. Still have to see where it hits and how it merges

 

 

 

There hasn't been any sensationalism....that's why I pointed it out yesterday. This is like that Dennis Quaid film setting up where the hurricane-like system crashes into a jet cold front and an atmospheric bomb explodes. It is so rare that nobody has said anything yet because of the once in a lifetime sort of pattern that is setting up. Now that all of the models are in synch, you will see serious talk tonight. Still 4 days away, so always a chance for some sort of dud, but this would really nail a lot of people and is pretty serious looking.

 

I sounded my doom alarm last night and talked to the barn because they have a horse shipping to Cali for the breeders cup.....supposed to fly out of NY on Tuesday. Of course the plane charter is saying the same thing as you are, but I told them to pound on them to move it up a few days. By tomorrow, people will be talking about this.

 

Yup. I'm not saying it's not going to bring in a bunch of bad weather, but these things get more and more overhyped. Of course people should be prepared, the two storms colliding could be bad. But Sandy, which is just SE of me right now, isn't going to be very strong when it gets up there. I think it's going to be widespread precipitation and some severe weather in places, but when it's al said and done it's just going to be another Irene. Y'all up in the northeast are no stranger to bad weather in the winter. Just be prepared and be smart.

 

I'm used to all the sensationalism down here. Big storms are no big deal to anybody here yet the news channels love to make it seem like the end of the world. When Isaac went by us, we had 15" of rain...... and went out to dinner that night, and the restaurants were busy. One of these days we really will be in a serious situation down here and nobody will take the media seriously any more.

[Weave]

Buffalo National Weather Service forecast for the event.

 

BY SUNDAY NIGHT...LARGE DIFFERENCES TAKE SHAPE AS THE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH AN APPROACHING UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH AND STRONG BLOCKING DOWNSTREAM. THE OPERATIONAL GFS/GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLES TRACK THE SYSTEM EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH MONDAY...THEN RECURVE IT BACK TO THE NORTHWEST TOWARD LONG ISLAND. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS REMAINED CONSISTENT TRACKING THE CYCLONE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH INTO DELAWARE/SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY MONDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT...THE NHC IS SUGGESTING A TRACK IN BETWEEN THE TWO SOLUTIONS...PLACING THE CYCLONE OFF THE EASTERN NEW JERSEY COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH A MORE RIGHT TRACKING SOLUTION IS POSSIBLE...THE LIKELIHOOD OF THIS CONTINUES TO DECREASE AND CONFIDENCE OF A POTENTIALLY HIGH IMPACT EVENT EARLY NEXT WEEK IS INCREASING. POTENTIAL IMPACTS LOOK TO BE THE POSSIBILITY FOR A PROLONGED HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT...WITH NOT ONLY LOCALIZED FLOODING BUT ALSO SIGNIFICANT RISES ON AREA CREEKS AND STREAMS...STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS IN A MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY TIME FRAME. IN ADDITION... DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH COLD AIR CAN MOVE IN FROM THE WEST THERE IS SOME LIMITED THREAT FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER.

[Ghost of Dwight Drane]

Buffalo National Weather Service forecast for the event.

 

And that's 500 miles inland!

 

It is a very interesting scenario setting up. It is a hurricane getting caught up with a Nor'easter. There is a chance Buffalo sees 20-40MPH winds for 48 hours in a stall with gusts in the 60-70 range.

 

It looks like if it is rain it will be 2-4 inches over 2-3 days. If that is snow, pretty much 18-36"....but it looks more like snow down south and Buf gets rain.

 

The power being out in Obama country is very interesting. If NJ/PA/OH/VA/RI all get hit hard, which is possible.....turnout even a week away could be low.

[wjag]

 

 

It's on.

 

Agreement from all models and they will be pimping it tonight on national news I would assume. A couple have direct hits on Long Island Tuesday morning and a few range down to your area. The cone is going to shrink most likely.

 

This thing is a monster and who knows what will come of it. Lots of people are going to get smacked though, almost the whole northeast. It will be interesting to see what lingering effects there are for the election.

 

It's basically a monster nor'easter..

[K-9]

It's basically a monster nor'easter..

 

You mean pissah naheastah

[SwampD]

I sure hope the Empire State Building doesn't get flash frozen.

[SwampD]

So, second hurricane to hit New York in as many years...

 

Have we finally put that whole global warming thing to bed yet?

[Ghost of Dwight Drane]

So, second hurricane to hit New York in as many years...

 

Have we finally put that whole global warming thing to bed yet?

 

He tried, but the Chinese masseuse said no!

 

I'm reducing my halloween candy budget by 50% in anticipation of a trick-or-treat washout.

 

Some models now have Buff/Roch getting 6-8 inches of rain through Wednesday.

 

Actually, you may be in the worst of it if it hits Atlantic City, which seems to be the trending ground zero. NY and north NJ get straightline winds out of the east, driving all the water in. Still way too early to know. She was weakening overnight but now trying to flair up again. Very interesting situation.

[spndnchz]

Can we get Bettman to lock it out?

[SwampD]

He tried, but the Chinese masseuse said no!

 

I'm reducing my halloween candy budget by 50% in anticipation of a trick-or-treat washout.

 

Some models now have Buff/Roch getting 6-8 inches of rain through Wednesday.

 

Actually, you may be in the worst of it if it hits Atlantic City, which seems to be the trending ground zero. NY and north NJ get straightline winds out of the east, driving all the water in. Still way too early to know. She was weakening overnight but now trying to flair up again. Very interesting situation.

I actually love these storms. I already got enough gas this morning to last about 4 days with the genny. I have tarps and insurance if anything comes though the roof. The camper is a nice self-suficient outpost. Booze, check. Food, check.

 

Nothing to do but sit around, listen to tunes and enjoy watching humans being humbled. Especially the East Coast variety. They've been getting a little uppity.

[wjag]

 

 

He tried, but the Chinese masseuse said no!

 

I'm reducing my halloween candy budget by 50% in anticipation of a trick-or-treat washout.

 

Some models now have Buff/Roch getting 6-8 inches of rain through Wednesday.

 

Actually, you may be in the worst of it if it hits Atlantic City, which seems to be the trending ground zero. NY and north NJ get straightline winds out of the east, driving all the water in. Still way too early to know. She was weakening overnight but now trying to flair up again. Very interesting situation.

 

Add into that a full moon increasing tides. This could be fun. Some models now show it coming right up the Chesapeake dropping right on top of us here. Time to clear the yard of objects.

[JJFIVEOH]

I actually love these storms. I already got enough gas this morning to last about 4 days with the genny. I have tarps and insurance if anything comes though the roof. The camper is a nice self-suficient outpost. Booze, check. Food, check.

 

Nothing to do but sit around, listen to tunes and enjoy watching humans being humbled. Especially the East Coast variety. They've been getting a little uppity.

 

Haha, that sounds like a plan! Not gonna miss any games.

[darksabre]

I sure hope the Empire State Building doesn't get flash frozen.

 

:lol:

 

Save us Dennis Quaid!

[nobody]

Add into that a full moon increasing tides. This could be fun. Some models now show it coming right up the Chesapeake dropping right on top of us here. Time to clear the yard of objects.

 

Luckily that full moon is a couple days before halloween. I was starting to worry that we would have to open the door when the real werewolves would be ringing the bell.

[Taro T]

Luckily that full moon is a couple days before halloween. I was starting to worry that we would have to open the door when the real werewolves would be ringing the bell.

Speaking of which, Newcastle Werewolf is a pretty good brew. But how they're going to be showing up to your door on their own is beyond me. As is why you'd be worried that they were showing up at your door.

[Wyldnwoody44]

I flew into boca raton yesterday, hit bad turbulence, its been rainy here and windy, but everyone down here is laughing at this storm. Its gonna be a different story when the fronts collide up north. Ill be flying home Monday afternoon, should be a bumpy flight. They estimate that millions could lose power in the DC area. And because many trees still have leaves in that area, the surface area is greatly increased, which in turn makes the wind that much more damaging. I don't think well see snow in buffalo, but extended periods of high winds and heavy rain seem likely. But hey how often are weathermen actually right.