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Posted (edited)

Even if they were, they wouldn't spread without drought conditions.

 

A fresh layer of dead leaves in the densest forests in the east, fire would spread regardless of drought conditions. Can we settle on 'vast majority' instead of 'almost all'? The rest were most likely a results of the current fires spreading with the winds. 

 

https://weather.com/news/news/southeast-wildfires?cm_ven=FB_WX_AN_111416_5

 

Officials in Kentucky say 150 of 210 wildfires since October were arson-related.

 

http://wncn.com/2016/11/11/arson-investigated-as-possible-cause-of-nc-wildfires-officials-say/

 

Officials say arson is being investigated as the possible cause of more than 20 wildfires in a national forest in North Carolina.

 

http://www.knoxnews.com/story/news/local/tennessee/2016/11/15/state-agriculture-commissioner-address-area-fires/93885840/

 

 

As firefighters continue to fight wildfires in Tennessee and seek out the arsonists who set them, two more suspects have been arrested and charged with igniting fires.The total brings to seven the number of suspects arrested on suspicion of setting forest fires in the last 20 days.That announcement was made during a news conference Tuesday on the parking lot of a closed diner on Dixie Highway near Del Rio and the site of forest fire that has burned more than 1,116 acres in since Friday. A group of 15 speakers at the event was led by state Agriculture Commissioner Jai Templeton, state Homeland Security Commissioner David W. Purkey and State Forester Jere Jeter.As the fire spree in East Tennessee seems to be easing, Jeter said there still are 60 active fires burning 16,000 acres in the state. Year to date there have been 1,125 fires burning 37,000 acres, well above the average year in which the total acres burned is about 25,000."About half of the fires we have had in Tennessee have been deliberately set," Templeton said at the news conference.

Edited by JJFIVEOH
  • 2 weeks later...
  • 8 months later...
Posted

Well, I'm in Irma's cone ... a little west of center. We'll see!

 

JJ, an east coaster, is perhaps in more jeopardy.

 

I've been here twenty years and have "enjoyed" a few of these. The brutal aspect is the waiting and watching for days. Ah, technology. There were times when Charlie, Katrina, and others were coming through my backyard in forecasts. Glancing blows, all.

 

I understand Cat 2 is all but certain and Cat 2/3 possible. If it shifts further west, and comes up the Gulf coast at Cat 4 with me to the east .... sayonara for a few months!

 

JJ ... batten down the hatches!

Posted

My brother's starting his drive from Boca to Raleigh today.  We're out of the cone at this point, so it should be just some rain and wind.  Seeing the Matthew stuff in this thread reminded me of the crappiness that was October last year though.

Posted

Well, I'm in Irma's cone ... a little west of center. We'll see!

 

JJ, an east coaster, is perhaps in more jeopardy.

 

I've been here twenty years and have "enjoyed" a few of these. The brutal aspect is the waiting and watching for days. Ah, technology. There were times when Charlie, Katrina, and others were coming through my backyard in forecasts. Glancing blows, all.

 

I understand Cat 2 is all but certain and Cat 2/3 possible. If it shifts further west, and comes up the Gulf coast at Cat 4 with me to the east .... sayonara for a few months!

 

JJ ... batten down the hatches!

Stay on alert down there, especially if Jose decides it wants to play too. 

 

We've got friends in Miami County right near the coast and they plan to ride it out. I'm reading these predicted storm surge numbers and going oh hell no, gtfo. 

Posted

Stay on alert down there, especially if Jose decides it wants to play too. 

 

We've got friends in Miami County right near the coast and they plan to ride it out. I'm reading these predicted storm surge numbers and going oh hell no, gtfo. 

didnt they order evacuations of Miami... mandatory ones?

Posted

I'm just sick to my gut watching this.

 

I'm definitely most concerned about the police friend. His wife is 5 months pregnant and they have a 4 year old. They're all staying. I think he's insane to let his wife and kid stay. I understand him staying. 

 

But I also have a cousin in Homestead, and family on the water in Ft. Myers. The Ft. Myers family is now (finally) considering leaving. My St. Petersburg family is staying. Another cousin is an EMT dispatcher in Gainesville- has to work through it (although she's not on a coast, I still wouldn't want to stick around). 

 

I met a lot of awesome people when I did a college program at Ringling in Sarasota, and still am in touch with many of them. None of them are leaving- usually in Tampa, Sarasota. 

 

I can barely focus on my work and such. This is all just So Very Bad. 


Interesting this post is a bit over a year old. Haiyan- I've heard a lot of comparisons of Irma to Haiyan. Similar windspeed and organization. Bad news. 

Posted (edited)

Thanks for all the well wishes everybody. Neo, stay safe man. I know you've been through some crazy ones over there, with Charlie and all. It seems like Irma's path keeps shifting a little bit and we've still got a day or two so it could get closer to you, or it could get closer to me. But we both know what to expect. 

 

For those who are worried about friends and family down here, they will be OK. Keep in mind the vast majority of homes down here are built to withstand very high winds, most homes are concrete block homes and are built on concrete pads. Roofs are strapped to the frames, and many older homes are low profile concrete houses that are like bomb shelters. Storm surge isn't expected to be too high (relative to the strength of Irma). The coast will see some flooding for sure, but it won't be Houston type flooding. In my opinion, the ones that most at risk are the people in downtown Miami because there is significant construction going on and there are many cranes still up. 

 

The media loves to whip people into a frenzy. They change color schemes on radar to make it look like the storm is a 400 mile wide 185MPH storm when in fact hurricane force winds extend out less than 100 miles from the center. Irma is nothing to laugh at, she is a mean bitch. But sensationalism has replaced reality in most cases. Nobody down here is laughing at the moment, or taking this lightly, but many who have been through it all down here knows what to ignore when watching something like the Weather Channel. I've got 2-3 weeks of food, two generators, 30 gallons of gas, truck is filled with 38 gallons of diesel, a couple of UPS...... I'm all set. I stayed for Wilma and watching Mother Nature flex her muscles is quite impressive. 

 

We might be without power for a while, we may have lots of trees to clean up. A small handful might lose their roofs. But for the most part everybody will be safe. 

 

I went for a motorcycle ride last night and this area is a ghost town. I might take another ride to Fort Lauderdale tonight before things get rough. It's kinda cool (yet eery) to drive around and have all the roads to yourself in an area with 6,000,000+ people within three counties. A couple of places open here and there, but most people are home or have left. 

 

2017090712_e10_z4_c17.png

Edited by JJFIVEOH
Posted

Thanks for all the well wishes everybody. Neo, stay safe man. I know you've been through some crazy ones over there, with Charlie and all. It seems like Irma's path keeps shifting a little bit and we've still got a day or two so it could get closer to you, or it could get closer to me. But we both know what to expect. 

 

For those who are worried about friends and family down here, they will be OK. Keep in mind the vast majority of homes down here are built to withstand very high winds, most homes are concrete block homes and are built on concrete pads. Roofs are strapped to the frames, and many older homes are low profile concrete houses that are like bomb shelters. Storm surge isn't expected to be too high (relative to the strength of Irma). The coast will see some flooding for sure, but it won't be Houston type flooding. In my opinion, the ones that most at risk are the people in downtown Miami because there is significant construction going on and there are many cranes still up. 

 

The media loves to whip people into a frenzy. They change color schemes on radar to make it look like the storm is a 400 mile wide 185MPH storm when in fact hurricane force winds extend out less than 100 miles from the center. Irma is nothing to laugh at, she is a mean bitch. But sensationalism has replaced reality in most cases. Nobody down here is laughing at the moment, or taking this lightly, but many who have been through it all down here knows what to ignore when watching something like the Weather Channel. I've got 2-3 weeks of food, two generators, 30 gallons of gas, truck is filled with 38 gallons of diesel, a couple of UPS...... I'm all set. I stayed for Wilma and watching Mother Nature flex her muscles is quite impressive. 

 

We might be without power for a while, we may have lots of trees to clean up. A small handful might lose their roofs. But for the most part everybody will be safe. 

 

I went for a motorcycle ride last night and this area is a ghost town. I might take another ride to Fort Lauderdale tonight before things get rough. It's kinda cool (yet eery) to drive around and have all the roads to yourself in an area with 6,000,000+ people within three counties. A couple of places open here and there, but most people are home or have left. 

 

2017090712_e10_z4_c17.png

Good luck & stay safe. Same to Neo & any others in FLA.

Posted

Stay safe everyone ... full tank of gas in the car, I hope at this point, and cash in case ATMs don't work.

 

Jose looks like it may be developing a tracking in a similar fashion to Juan all those years ago.  I am worried about that one for us.  That is not to say that I am not concerned for everyone else.

 

May God help us all.

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