Sabres with new contracts -- who will live up to them?

[nfreeman]

Well, here's a new topic for discussion in case you're interested in taking a break from the Myers-for-Malkin conversation (although I can't imagine why).

 

IMHO, in determining whether someone turns out to be worth his/her contract, total # of years must be taken into account -- not just cap hit. DR, armed with TP's checkbook, did a very nice job in holding the cap hits down, which is great for future flexibility. However, if, for example, Stafford reverts to disinterested 17-goal, healthy-scratch-dude form this year, I would call him well overpaid since a $4MM cap hit for the next 4 years for that kind of player is a bad deal.

 

OTOH, if Stafford continues to be a 30-goal guy AND starts to score in the playoffs, or if Gerbe is a 23-goal guy who keeps bringing the fire every night, their respective contracts will be excellent deals for the Sabres.

 

I hate to say it, but statistics would seem to indicate that out of the 8 guys, at least a couple will be contract year flashes.

 

I voted that all of them will be worth it.

 

Go Sabres.

[LGR4GM]

Well, here's a new topic for discussion in case you're interested in taking a break from the Myers-for-Malkin conversation (although I can't imagine why).

 

IMHO, in determining whether someone turns out to be worth his/her contract, total # of years must be taken into account -- not just cap hit. DR, armed with TP's checkbook, did a very nice job in holding the cap hits down, which is great for future flexibility. However, if, for example, Stafford reverts to disinterested 17-goal, healthy-scratch-dude form this year, I would call him well overpaid since a $4MM cap hit for the next 4 years for that kind of player is a bad deal.

 

OTOH, if Stafford continues to be a 30-goal guy AND starts to score in the playoffs, or if Gerbe is a 23-goal guy who keeps bringing the fire every night, their respective contracts will be excellent deals for the Sabres.

 

I hate to say it, but statistics would seem to indicate that out of the 8 guys, at least a couple will be contract year flashes.

 

I voted that all of them will be worth it.

 

Go Sabres.

wait we cant trade myers for malkin?

 

The most interesting person on this list is Leino, he could be an amazing steal or he could be garbage (tc 2.0) I think he will be better and I think he should justify his raise but I have not seen him play enough to know for sure.

[shrader]

So how do you factor in the cap hit and the length of the contract for the Ehrhoff deal? That's a really tricky one to figure out.

[Weave]

Gerbe is a question mark in my mind. Is he going to be an effective 3rd scoring LW? IMO if he ends up on the 4th line then he shouldn't have been retained. He needs to be an effective 3rd LW scoring threat to justify not just his contract, but his roster spot. This is a big year for him.

 

Leino is tough to predict. There are no data points for him as an NHL center. I think the odds favor him ending up overpaid, but there is enough upside out there to make a successful season unsuprising.

 

Erhoff could be a team whipping boy if he doesn't energize the PP. I think he has the game to do it but there will def be pressure on him, probably more than anyone else.

[carpandean]

OTOH, if Stafford continues to be a 30-goal guy AND starts to score in the playoffs, or if Gerbe is a 23-goal guy who keeps bringing the fire every night, their respective contracts will be excellent deals for the Sabres.

You needed to add a category for this. "Who will be a bargain?" There are a couple who could be put in there.

 

I hate to say it, but statistics would seem to indicate that out of the 8 guys, at least a couple will be contract year flashes.

Even a good GM will have one or two overpays on a list that long (but also some bargains.) The problem will be if two of three bigger, longer contracts - Leino, Stafford, and Ehrhoff - turn out to be overpaid. If most turn out worth it, then one overpaid will be acceptable if there are a couple of bargains in there, too.

[shrader]

Even a good GM will have one or two overpays on a list that long (but also some bargains.) The problem will be if two of three bigger, longer contracts - Leino, Stafford, and Ehrhoff - turn out to be overpaid. If most turn out worth it, then one overpaid will be acceptable if there are a couple of bargains in there, too.

 

It kind of makes me wonder how common the exact opposite of the contract year scenario happens. There have to be plenty of guys out there who have a horrible contract year and then their wallet is hit because of it. Then they return to form after signing the new deal. Why do we never hear about this possibility?

[nfreeman]

You needed to add a category for this. "Who will be a bargain?" There are a couple who could be put in there.

Good call. Done.

[LabattBlue]

My biggest contract concerns...

 

Leino...never played center and has only had moderate success for one season.

 

Sekera...Always seems to find a way into Lindy's doghouse.

 

Stafford...Perennial 30 goal scorer or decides that being a Guitar Hero is more important?

[shrader]

Good call. Done.

 

You can edit your polls? How about correcting the spelling on Ehrhoff then? ;)

[Eleven]

Weber will be a bargain.

[DR HOLLIDAY]

I would rather do this in a couple of months........ :beer:

[nfreeman]

You can edit your polls? How about correcting the spelling on Ehrhoff then? ;)

Done, although now you've opened the door for spelling/grammar retribution, buddy boy.

 

Separately, I fixed the "bargain" question so that it's now possible to vote for more than one guy (as it is for the other questions).

[Andrew Amerk]

All of them will live up to their contracts, of course.

 

I hope Leino becomes the deal of the decade...

 

Also, a very twisted part of me wants to see Timmy the Conn light it up in Toronto and have a career year...haha

[shrader]

Done, although now you've opened the door for spelling/grammar retribution, buddy boy.

 

Separately, I fixed the "bargain" question so that it's now possible to vote for more than one guy (as it is for the other questions).

 

As long as we don't start talking about the contract of our AHL depth center Paul S, I should be fine.

 

And strangely enough, the contract that sticks out to me the most is Cody McCormick. He got a bit more than he's probably worth. You may say it is only $1.2 million, but now that we're actually up against (and even over) the cap, every little bit counts.

[korab rules]

Great thread, NF. Regier, with a big assist from Pegula's wallet, really performed yeoman's work this summer. The serious front loading of Leino's and Ehrhoff's contracts mean that if they are under-producing, we should be able to shop them fairly easily. If a team is struggling to meet the floor and strapped for cash, would they rather pay a guy 5 million dollars a year or pay a guy 1.5 million dollars a year but get 5 million dollars worth of cap hit credit? The front loading of contracts is a huge bargaining advantage for the the teams that can afford to do it - the players want to get the cash as quick as they can. At the same time, the front loading is a huge advantage for the team if the player under-produces, as I stated above. It is also an advantage for a really long term contract like Ehrhoff's, because as Ehrhoff nears the end of that contract and his skills start to drop off, he knows he will be making very little money, and perhaps decides to retire a year early rather than go through another season just to earn another big paycheck.

 

Leino will have a hard time meeting expectations - I think he is being paid at his potential. I think Stafford is the riskiest - he has demonstrated he can really play like ka-ka when he's not motivated, but I hope that motivation issue is now behind him. I think Shakira could be an absolute steal if he starts to smooth out some of his rough edges. I think Ehrhoff is an absolute steal if he plays to his potential. $ million a year is not a lot of money for a 50 point defenseman who knows how to play in his own end.

 

I love that there is competition up and down the roster. We have a 20 goal winger in Gerbe who may be stuck on the 4th line. Competition is the opposite of the complacency that has haunted this team for too many years.

[korab rules]

As long as we don't start talking about the contract of our AHL depth center Paul S, I should be fine.

 

And strangely enough, the contract that sticks out to me the most is Cody McCormick. He got a bit more than he's probably worth. You may say it is only $1.2 million, but now that we're actually up against (and even over) the cap, every little bit counts.

 

That's what I checked. A 4th line enforcer with his production is overpaid at 1.2.

[nfreeman]

And strangely enough, the contract that sticks out to me the most is Cody McCormick. He got a bit more than he's probably worth. You may say it is only $1.2 million, but now that we're actually up against (and even over) the cap, every little bit counts.

That struck me as well when I was looking up the #s. A 3-yr deal for a guy who is more or less a journeyman? I like his toughness and attitude, but still. It seems like a bit of TP taking care of his guys even if not fiscally prudent.

[shrader]

That struck me as well when I was looking up the #s. A 3-yr deal for a guy who is more or less a journeyman? I like his toughness and attitude, but still. It seems like a bit of TP taking care of his guys even if not fiscally prudent.

 

Last year was his first ever one-way contract too for $500K. One year later he nearly triples that figure. Not a bad summer if you ask me.

[Weave]

That struck me as well when I was looking up the #s. A 3-yr deal for a guy who is more or less a journeyman? I like his toughness and attitude, but still. It seems like a bit of TP taking care of his guys even if not fiscally prudent.

Last year was his first ever one-way contract too for $500K. One year later he nearly triples that figure. Not a bad summer if you ask me.

 

I have to assume that their were other suitors.

[LGR4GM]

I think Sekera will be over paid and will come in at more of a 1.75mil worth once everything is done.

 

Mike Weber will be a solid stay at home guy who will learn so much from Regehr that by the end of the season his worth will be at least double.

 

Gerbe I think will picked up where he left off and score around 20 goals and have 20-25a this year depending on who ends up centering and manning the other wing on that line.

 

Ehrhoff will be a top 2 defender and I think signing the contract he did and moving his family here is a big deal for him so he will play hard for many years especially considering how fresh losing the cup is for him.

 

Leino is a complete unknown, sink or swim is 50/50 at this point

 

Stafford I think it overpayed now and will get about 26g and 31a this season. Maybe thats worth 4mil but i am still thinking 3.5

 

Enroth will be fine, just look at our defense

 

McCormick is overpayed and I dont dislike him but his contract is a bit of a head scratcher...

[shrader]

I have to assume that their were other suitors.

 

They signed him right before the market opened, didn't they?

[Eleven]

I think Sekera will be over paid and will come in at more of a 1.75mil worth once everything is done.

 

Mike Weber will be a solid stay at home guy who will learn so much from Regehr that by the end of the season his worth will be at least double.

 

Gerbe I think will picked up where he left off and score around 20 goals and have 20-25a this year depending on who ends up centering and manning the other wing on that line.

 

Ehrhoff will be a top 2 defender and I think signing the contract he did and moving his family here is a big deal for him so he will play hard for many years especially considering how fresh losing the cup is for him.

 

Leino is a complete unknown, sink or swim is 50/50 at this point

 

Stafford I think it overpayed now and will get about 26g and 31a this season. Maybe thats worth 4mil but i am still thinking 3.5

 

Enroth will be fine, just look at our defense

 

McCormick is overpayed and I dont dislike him but his contract is a bit of a head scratcher...

 

Bingo. He is a decent, and effing mean, D-man. He's only going to get better. I'm going to have fun watching him be a 23-year-old Rivet this year.

[...]

Sekera will be overpaid.

 

I think McCormick is a little under-rated on this board. I think he has the potential to live up to his salary.

 

Gerbe, Enroth and Weber will become total bargains, if they're not already.

 

I also have confidence that between the Sabres and Leino, they know he's a NHL center. I wouldn't doubt the guy has been chomping at the bit to play his "natural" position.

 

I don't know enough about Ehrhoff to say either way, although I'd like to think that the Sabres knew what they were after when they signed him.

 

Stafford is the enigma - 30 goals is worth $4 mil no matter how you slice it. If he puts up 30 goals each season of the next four, then he was worth the salary. If he reverts to the old Drew of days past, he's a bust. If he picks up his game even more, then he's a total bargain.

[wjag]

Overpaid: Ehrhoff.. No brainer..

Underpaid: Enroth

Just right: Leino

 

 

Hmm.... All euros....

[korab rules]

Overpaid: Ehrhoff.. No brainer..

Underpaid: Enroth

Just right: Leino

 

 

Hmm.... All euros....

Really? You view a true PP QB who scored 50 points last year and is solid enough in his own end to play top 4 minutes as overpaid at 4 mill per?

 

What's Campbell making again?

 

Here's a list of the 30 most expensive d-men in the league as of the end of last season. 4 mill doesn't make the list. I would take Ehrhoff over probably a third of the guys, maybe more.

 

Rk. Player Team Age 2010-11 Cap Hit 2010-11 Salary

1 Zdeno Chara Boston 33 $7,500,000 $7,500,000

2 Brian Campbell Chicago 31 $7,140,000 $7,140,000

3 Jay Bouwmeester Calgary 26 $6,680,000 $6,600,000

4 Dan Boyle San Jose 33 $6,667,000 $6,667,000

T5 Wade Redden NY Rangers 33 $6,500,000 $6,500,000

Ed Jovanovski Phoenix 34 $6,500,000 $6,000,000

Dion Phaneuf Toronto 25 $6,500,000 $7,000,000

8 Kimmo Timonen Philadelphia 35 $6,333,000 $7,000,000

9 Nicklas Lidstrom Detroit 40 $6,200,000 $6,200,000

10 Brian Rafalski Detroit 36 $6,000,000 $6,000,000

T11 Bryan McCabe Florida 35 $5,750,000 $4,150,000

Andrei Markov Montreal 31 $5,750,000 $5,750,000

13 Lubomir Visnovsky Anaheim 33 $5,600,000 $6,000,000

14 Duncan Keith Chicago 26 $5,551,000 $8,000,000

T15 Roman Hamrlik Montreal 36 $5,500,000 $5,500,000

Sergei Gonchar Ottawa 36 $5,500,000 $5,500,000

17 Sheldon Souray Edmonton 33 $5,400,000 $4,500,000

18 Mike Green Washington 24 $5,250,000 $5,000,000

T19 Michal Rozsival NY Rangers 31 $5,000,000 $4,000,000

Paul Martin Pittsburgh 29 $5,000,000 $5,000,000

21 Chris Pronger Philadelphia 35 $4,921,000 $7,600,000

T22 Ron Hainsey Atlanta 29 $4,500,000 $5,000,000

Scott Hannan Colorado 31 $4,500,000 $4,500,000

Shea Weber Nashville 24 $4,500,000 $4,500,000

Mike Komisarek Toronto 28 $4,500,000 $6,000,000

Dan Hamhuis Vancouver 27 $4,500,000 $5,000,000

T27 Anton Volchenkov New Jersey 28 $4,250,000 $4,250,000

Eric Brewer St. Louis 31 $4,250,000 $4,500,000

Tomas Kaberle Toronto 32 $4,250,000 $4,250,000

T30 John-Michael Liles Colorado 29 $4,200,000 $4,425,000

Keith Ballard Vancouver 27 $4,200,000 $4,200,000