All About Stamkos

[nucci]

If multiple teams give Stamkos (or any RFA for that matter) offer sheets, what happens? He just has the option to choose one or none, that simple?

An offer sheet is basically a contract. Just think of it that way. He can only sign one.

[spndnchz]

TL;DR: TBL needs to sign Stamkos before the offer sheets arrive, otherwise they lose control of their finances and are likely forced to part ways with a big salary (like Simon Gagne). In order to land a Stamkos-sized contract, we would need to make some cap room (like buying out Kotalik).

 

 

 

This Stamkos offer sheet idea to pry apart the TBL team under a tight cap has been around a little while.

 

Facts:

+ TBL has $21.8M available and 15 players signed for next year. No goalies signed.

+ Free Agents:

- RFA F Stamkos

- RFA F Purcell

- RFA D Lundin

- RFA D Smaby

- UFA F S Gagne

- UFA F Bergenheim

- UFA F A Hall

- UFA D R Jones

- UFA G Roloson

- UFA G M Smith

 

There's three possible paths for Stamkos, and he's pretty much in control.

Path A: He signs a qualifying offer from TBL of at least $3.7M.

Path B: He rejects all qualifying offers from TBL, no offer sheets from another team are signed, and goes to arbitration.

Path C: He rejects all qualifying offers from TBL, an offer sheet from another team is signed.

 

 

Analysis:

Path A: TBL has until July 1 before the offer sheet sharks come out. It's in their best interest to sign Stamkos ASAP to stay in control of the situation. If they don't, I think it's going to get offer sheeteriffic.

Path B: I think this is unlikely. I don't believe that arbitration would award Stamkos the same $Texas that he could get from a offer sheet/match scenario. I believe his agent probably knows this. They're going to negotiate a deal themselves with somebody- they wouldn't trust an adjudicator to do it.

Path C: Increasingly likely everyday as TBL doesn't sign him before July 1. I think Stamkos (and his agent) want to "test the RFA waters" so to speak. They can wield the power of every offer sheet team over each other AND try to use them to get TBL to match. It's the scenario that gives Stamkos the most options and likely the most money. I'll explore this one, as the others are boring.

 

 

Path C consequences for TBL:

The downside for TBL is that if Stamkos walks down Path C, they're at a clear disadvantage, regardless of whether they end up with Stamkos.

+If they fail to match, they've lost a top-3 player and perhaps the best player to ever play for them. Yes, they likely will have gained multiple 1st round draft picks, but a Stamkos replacement is very unlikely and try selling that move to fans and players.

+If they match, they use up a significant portion of their cap space. It's easy to imagine Stamkos would command a salary cap hit between $7M and $10M. This leaves TBL between $11.8M and $14.8M to sign up to 7 skaters and two goalies- roughly $2M available per player. This means that some players may not be resigned: Simon Gagne made $5.2M last year; backup G Mike Smith made $2.2M. Roloson may command a small-moderate raise over his $2.5M salary.

 

 

With regard to Buffalo:

Regier has stated that he doesn't plan on buying out any contracts this month. That leaves us with $12M in cap space. Regier's said in the past that he likes to keep about $3M around for injuries/call-ups/deadline deals, so our effective cap is $9M. We need to sign at least two forwards, two D, and a backup goalie. That's not hard to do with $9M, but...

 

Giving all of our RFAs reasonable offers/raises (Gerbe, McCormick [uFA], Sekera, Weber, Gragnani, Enroth), that's about $4M. That leaves about $5M with no Connolly, Grier, Niedermayer, Ellis, or Montador (and Mancari's already confirmed by Regier to go UFA July 1). So if we were going to attempt to sign Stamkos for $7M-$10M per year, we would likely have to trade or a buy out either a larger salary ($3M-$6M) or several lesser-paid, younger players else to get under the $9M effective cap (in addition to the compensatory draft picks cost).

 

These are all rough figures, but the idea is there. We can take a run at Stamkos, but it might cost us a Hecht/Boyes/Kotalik-level salary to do so. And frankly, that would be reasonable. Buy out Kotalik to make room for a landed Stamkos contract? That's no choice at all.

 

 

What I'd like to see Buffalo do:

If he makes it to July 1 unsigned, make a nice fat offer sheet to Stamkos. It forces TBL to match (or we get Stamkos!), or at least raises the ante, forcing them into salary cap hell. Then we can go about our business of signing whatever UFAs are around.

 

No that I agree with it all, but nice post.

 

BTW, Stamkos does not have arbitration rights. He hasn't played four seasons yet.

[clancynut]

Is it possible for the other teams to make Stamkos a Will Wolford type contract offer? Something along the lines of the contract dollar amount if significantly higher if he pays more than 50% of his home regular season games in Florida say 15 million per year or only 9 million if he plays for a team not residing in Florida. Has the NHL prohibited these types of contracts?

[spndnchz]

Teams can start sending offer sheets to Stamkos anytime after 5PM today. No sheet can be signed until noon July 1.

 

Tampa Bay has 7 days to review the offer sheet. They can accept it and pay what the offer sheet says or let him go for picks. If they do nothing on the 8th day he goes to the club whomever offer sheet he signed.

 

He would most likely be offered over $7,533,584 which means Tampa would get four first round picks (NHL puts a lock down on those picks when the sheet is signed).

 

FWIW, Flyers still have four (all their own) first round picks over the next 4 years.

[Taro T]

Is it possible for the other teams to make Stamkos a Will Wolford type contract offer? Something along the lines of the contract dollar amount if significantly higher if he pays more than 50% of his home regular season games in Florida say 15 million per year or only 9 million if he plays for a team not residing in Florida. Has the NHL prohibited these types of contracts?

No.

 

Yes.

 

(Respectively.)

[Lanny]

These are all rough figures, but the idea is there. We can take a run at Stamkos, but it might cost us a Hecht/Boyes/Kotalik-level salary to do so. And frankly, that would be reasonable. Buy out Kotalik to make room for a landed Stamkos contract? That's no choice at all.

If the actual salary isn't an issue the Sabres would be better served waiving Kotalik to the AHL therefore there is no cap hit from his contract. The same could be done with Morrisonn, freeing another $5M.

[That Aud Smell]

/snip This Stamkos offer sheet idea to pry apart the TBL team under a tight cap has been around a little while. /snip**

woah. respect, sir.

 

** credit to chz for the board lexicon.

[clancynut]

No.

 

Yes.

 

(Respectively.)

 

Thanks for clearing that up.

[IKnowPhysics]

No that I agree with it all, but nice post.

It's up for discussion. Gracias.

BTW, Stamkos does not have arbitration rights. He hasn't played four seasons yet.

 

Good call, I can't always keep track of all of the CBA ins and outs and whathaveyous.

[wacollin]

Tampa may end up with a little more time, at least until Richards is signed. If someone makes an offer and Tampa takes the whole 7 days to match the team that made the offer can not spend the offer sheet money on another player until the offer is matched or accepted. Or I am fairly certain that is the case.

 

So this may prevent some teams without the extra cap room from making an offer until they have gone after another playerzthe covet. Not sure how many teams this affects. Of course teams can be over the cap 10% until the season starts so maybe the number is very low anyway?

[inkman]

In order to land a Stamkos-sized contract, we would need to make some cap room (like buying out Kotalik).

Buy out Kotalik to make room for a landed Stamkos contract? That's no choice at all.

It's easier to just send him down to Rochester. Less cap hit (none as opposed to ~$1 mill), and the Sabres can spend up to ~$70 million in the offseason and jettison $6 million down the thruway to Rochester (see Kotalik, Morrisson, Hecht).

[cmjoyce113]

Ecklund on hockey buzz just wrote that his dark horse for stamkos is the sabres and Colorado... Very interesting

 

http://www.hockeybuzz.com/blog/Eklund/Ehrhoff-Rights-Traded-To-NYI--On-Stamkos-Jagr-Dagostini-Q--A-11pm/1/36732

[Bullwinkle]

Hearing tonight Stamkos may be signed at between $7-7.5 mil per season

[Taro T]

Ecklund on hockey buzz just wrote that his dark horse for stamkos is the sabres and Colorado... Very interesting

 

http://www.hockeybuzz.com/blog/Eklund/Ehrhoff-Rights-Traded-To-NYI--On-Stamkos-Jagr-Dagostini-Q--A-11pm/1/36732

Bummer. If RumorMongerWhore is saying it could happen, not a chance.

[Sterling Archer]

Hearing tonight Stamkos may be signed at between $7-7.5 mil per season

 

That is the going rate for a first line center. But not for a franchise player.

[Braedon]

I wish SS would add a macro to the site where anyone dishing out Eklund speak would be drive stunned by the keyboard. I'm sure this would slowly remove any grip this DB has on the naivete of our hockey brethren.

[spndnchz]

:doh:

[Bullwinkle]

That is the going rate for a first line center. But not for a franchise player.

 

That was my thought too. This was reported by Mike Brophy - if he can be trusted.

[inkman]

Ecklund on hockey buzz just wrote that his dark horse for stamkos is the sabres and Colorado... Very interesting

Not really...what's the opposite of interesting...oh yeah, boring.

[NoVASabresFan]

I could see the Flyers doing a 7 year $70 million offer sheet.

 

Creative manipulation of a contract to work around the salary cap aside, Flyers have just over $8mil of cap space currently with 9F 7D and 3G signed. I could see Colorado (or other teams threatening the salary floor) throwing ridiculous money at Stamkos on an offer sheet. Compensation to TBL caps at $7.5ish, so them offering 4yr/$50mil doesn't seem unreasonable.

[spndnchz]

Is anyone worth 4 first round picks? or worth giving up 4 first round picks? ur team really needs to be in the right situation to make that move.

[Braedon]

Is anyone worth 4 first round picks? or worth giving up 4 first round picks? ur team really needs to be in the right situation to make that move.

 

 

Orr, the Great one, Mess, Mario, the Rocket, Hull Sr, Sawchuk........

[inkman]

Is anyone worth 4 first round picks? or worth giving up 4 first round picks? ur team really needs to be in the right situation to make that move.

Yes, exactly one player away from the cup.

[cmjoyce113]

I wish SS would add a macro to the site where anyone dishing out Eklund speak would be drive stunned by the keyboard. I'm sure this would slowly remove any grip this DB has on the naivete of our hockey brethren.

 

 

Is ecklunds stuff garbage? Just passing along what I read. I've always been a sabres fan but never followed the off season. With lack of football and pegula mania it's got me overly excited about hockey. Someone give me a heads up who is respectable and what sites I can check out for info.

[nucci]

Is ecklunds stuff garbage? Just passing along what I read. I've always been a sabres fan but never followed the off season. With lack of football and pegula mania it's got me overly excited about hockey. Someone give me a heads up who is respectable and what sites I can check out for info.

Yes. I found Spector to be ok.

http://www.spectorshockey.net/wordpress/