Weave Posted May 5, 2011 Report Posted May 5, 2011 Kentucky Derby this weekend. We always have a house party for this one. Lots of Juleps, trash talking about who picked who, and too much food. But I haven't been paying attention this year. Who does everyone like for the Derby this year and why? Lets hear your picks..
Bmwolf21 Posted May 5, 2011 Report Posted May 5, 2011 Kentucky Derby this weekend. We always have a house party for this one. Lots of Juleps, trash talking about who picked who, and too much food. But I haven't been paying attention this year. Who does everyone like for the Derby this year and why? Lets hear your picks.. Same here, weave. Thanks for starting this thread - my wife and I usually enjoy watching the Triple Crown races and I usually have a little background on some of the horses heading into the Derby, but not at all this year. I'm interested to see what others have to say.
Ghost of Dwight Drane Posted May 5, 2011 Report Posted May 5, 2011 Pretty wide open on paper. All the expected favorites have had setbacks. Dialed In is the favorite and is a big closer, so the traffic down the stretch will be a factor. Uncle Mo, I wouldn't bet and in fact i think he may even scratch by Saturday. The buzz horses are Nehro and Archarcharch. Nehro is a closer with a good pedigree and I like his chances, but he is 6-1 morning line....too low. AAA is an interesting horse, but he may get squeezed on the rail and i won't use him. Calvin Borel is on Twice the Appeal. I don't think he has a real shot and is a longshot. Some good backstories... Jinks Fires - trains AAA and is in his 70s. Pants on Fire - Rosie Naprovnik is a young female jockey, who is good Mucho Macho Man - trainer is a woman who had a heart transplant, the horse was a stillborn and revived, his jockey was paralysed the night before his big race and walked out of the hospital 2 months later I'm betting MMM. I am biased though, so take that into account, but he is doing great right now. He's huge but has started to fill out his frame. He has a stalking style and should not get tired when many will. Cautiously optimistic. I think Soldat can run big if it is sloppy. He is a small horse and may get pounded around. He likes to be on the lead to stay out of trouble but the pace will be fast. If it track is dry I am not as thrilled. Nehro is a closer and has improved. I will use him underneath in exotics but odds are too low. I will also use Dialed In and Pants on Fire in exotics. If you are looking for a bomb, the horse that looked best with his body language today was Twinspired. He is bred for turf, but he is full of himself right now. I also think Decisive Moment looks really good and I may even bet him to show. He is my superfecta bomb horse. If you bet the oaks....there is a Filly that really caught my eye today and that is Her Smile. Pletcher just got her and Bobby Flay owns her, but she is one classy girl, and she is built. I like the pedigree and her form....and I fell in love with her today from the barn to the track. She is under the radar and you will get good odds. Have fun, and don't bet more than you can afford to lose.
Sterling Archer Posted May 5, 2011 Report Posted May 5, 2011 Secretariat http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_B-CCX4ff64
Weave Posted May 5, 2011 Author Report Posted May 5, 2011 Thanks Dwight. I got on anddownthestretchtheycome.com at lunch today and they mentioned some similar takes to yours. One tidbit they gave was the intestinal bug that Uncle Mo is dealing with. Too bad for the timing with that horse. And they don't like AAA on the rail either. Thanks for the tip on The Oaks too. I may have to get in on that. We like to bet on the ponies a few times a year. Small money stuff. I probably spend more on drinks than I do on the horses when we go. I'll place 3-5 bets on the Derby if I feel good about a few horses. Went to Keeneland last year for their opening week. First time ever down in the heartland of thoroughbreds. OMG what a great time !!! And Keeneland was an amazing track with huge crowds. Pretty ladies in sundresses and bonnets. The place smelled of money. And they had bourbon barrel aged Kentucky Ale on draft. I didn't hit on a single race, not even for small money, but we sure had fun and plan on going back sometime soon. Maybe as soon as next year for opening week.
Ghost of Dwight Drane Posted May 5, 2011 Report Posted May 5, 2011 Thanks Dwight. I got on anddownthestretchtheycome.com at lunch today and they mentioned some similar takes to yours. One tidbit they gave was the intestinal bug that Uncle Mo is dealing with. Too bad for the timing with that horse. And they don't like AAA on the rail either. Thanks for the tip on The Oaks too. I may have to get in on that. We like to bet on the ponies a few times a year. Small money stuff. I probably spend more on drinks than I do on the horses when we go. I'll place 3-5 bets on the Derby if I feel good about a few horses. Went to Keeneland last year for their opening week. First time ever down in the heartland of thoroughbreds. OMG what a great time !!! And Keeneland was an amazing track with huge crowds. Pretty ladies in sundresses and bonnets. The place smelled of money. And they had bourbon barrel aged Kentucky Ale on draft. I didn't hit on a single race, not even for small money, but we sure had fun and plan on going back sometime soon. Maybe as soon as next year for opening week. Yeah...I didn't give any earthshattering views, but at least got to see them in the flesh today. I am happy with my betting choice. Keeneland is neat. I love Saratoga so much. So do the horses. You should see how some of them relax going up there when they are used to the Florida heat and concrete.
Weave Posted May 5, 2011 Author Report Posted May 5, 2011 Yeah...I didn't give any earthshattering views, but at least got to see them in the flesh today. I am happy with my betting choice. Keeneland is neat. I love Saratoga so much. So do the horses. You should see how some of them relax going up there when they are used to the Florida heat and concrete. It may not have been earthshattering, but the confirmation is nice. You are in Lexington right now? If you don't mind my asking, what do you do in the industry?
X. Benedict Posted May 5, 2011 Report Posted May 5, 2011 Calvin Borel is on Twice the Appeal. I don't think he has a real shot and is a longshot. I'm going to bet a little on this across the board. Should be a nice pay if it hits.
darksabre Posted May 5, 2011 Report Posted May 5, 2011 Well I know what horse I'm taking this weekend. I like a good back story.
Ghost of Dwight Drane Posted May 6, 2011 Report Posted May 6, 2011 It may not have been earthshattering, but the confirmation is nice. You are in Lexington right now? If you don't mind my asking, what do you do in the industry? In Louisville. I do a little bit of everything depending on the scenario. In the business and management side at times, and race/breed/sales. Some years are great, some are horrible, always fun.
Ghost of Dwight Drane Posted May 6, 2011 Report Posted May 6, 2011 I'm going to bet a little on this across the board. Should be a nice pay if it hits. He will get overbet because of the jockey. He supposedly likes a wet track and is coming from New Mexico like Mine That Bird. Hey...it is very open.
X. Benedict Posted May 6, 2011 Report Posted May 6, 2011 He will get overbet because of the jockey. He supposedly likes a wet track and is coming from New Mexico like Mine That Bird. Hey...it is very open. I'll be watching the pools. If he gets under 15-1...I'll probably pick again.
Braedon Posted May 6, 2011 Report Posted May 6, 2011 I was sad to see Toby's Corner get scratched, he's a colt out of a farm down the road in Alachua. Mucho Macho Man's farm is about 40 minutes from us in Ocala, but he's a long shot. I'll probably be betting Shackleford, only because I've read that he's a darkhorse. I really dropped the ball this year in following the ponies.
Weave Posted May 6, 2011 Author Report Posted May 6, 2011 In Louisville. I do a little bit of everything depending on the scenario. In the business and management side at times, and race/breed/sales. Some years are great, some are horrible, always fun. Louisville is a great town to visit too. For that matter, I don't think I saw a part of that half of the state that I wouldn't want to spend time in again. Your job description sounds like a response I'd get if I asked a Soprano what they did in the industry. :blink:
Ghost of Dwight Drane Posted May 6, 2011 Report Posted May 6, 2011 Louisville is a great town to visit too. For that matter, I don't think I saw a part of that half of the state that I wouldn't want to spend time in again. Your job description sounds like a response I'd get if I asked a Soprano what they did in the industry. :blink: I guess you can say sort of like that. I own horses, have bred them, manage and buy for others, and have worked in consulting and management for different industry aspects. I'm not a big wig royal blue blood, but I guess I'm sort of like Michael Keaton in Gung Ho. I translate pretty well between the guys with more cash than our entire membership on this board combined, and the guy working his butt off for $50 a day. I think that's why I get so critical at times about the Sabres. I have seen almost every type of person and every trick in the book. Louisville is ok. Lexington is better with all the farmland and UK.
Freeezo Posted May 6, 2011 Report Posted May 6, 2011 I think Arch*3 is the most solid on paper. However, that post is gonna be tough. 'Big Steve A fan so I guess I'm rooting for Nehro. Remember Arch just sired last years Classic winner "Blame" at Churchill!!! I'm gonna have to check out that Oaks tip!!...
Freeezo Posted May 6, 2011 Report Posted May 6, 2011 I guess you can say sort of like that. I own horses, have bred them, manage and buy for others, and have worked in consulting and management for different industry aspects. I'm not a big wig royal blue blood, but I guess I'm sort of like Michael Keaton in Gung Ho. I translate pretty well between the guys with more cash than our entire membership on this board combined, and the guy working his butt off for $50 a day. I think that's why I get so critical at times about the Sabres. I have seen almost every type of person and every trick in the book. Louisville is ok. Lexington is better with all the farmland and UK. Hey Dwight- what's your connection to 3M? Any opinion on Zito's horse ie his workout spacing etc? Lot's of synth/turf types in this race...Do you throw these out?
BuffaloSoldier2010 Posted May 6, 2011 Report Posted May 6, 2011 Secretariat http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_B-CCX4ff64 You have no idea how happy you made me by posting this. Thank you. Thank you so much.
Ghost of Dwight Drane Posted May 6, 2011 Report Posted May 6, 2011 Hey Dwight- what's your connection to 3M? Any opinion on Zito's horse ie his workout spacing etc? Lot's of synth/turf types in this race...Do you throw these out? People are touting Animal Kingdom, but I hate synthetic racing in all honesty. You can't always throw it out, but I have more confidence in betting dirt to synthetic than the other way around. Twinspired is a good looking turf horse, but I have a hard time seeing him get a major hunk. 20 horses...maybe 12 have a legit shot. Crazy race. Zito seems really emotional with the horse. I wouldn't be shocked to find out he is gutting out some sort of hindering factor that makes him proud of the horse. A lot of these guys are babying the horses coming into this because they just don't seem to stand up to the pounding. The horse closes like a train, but he is green out there and I don't know how that really improves with 4 total races and a 20 horse field. 3M is a good ol' Florida boy. We share a carrot every now and then.
Ghost of Dwight Drane Posted May 6, 2011 Report Posted May 6, 2011 No Mo' ;) Liver primed....headed out to make my donation.
Weave Posted May 6, 2011 Author Report Posted May 6, 2011 Uncle Mo officially out, eh? I guess that means my choices got a little easier. Not really, I was going to avoid that horse anyway.
Ghost of Dwight Drane Posted May 6, 2011 Report Posted May 6, 2011 Sorry about the Oaks pick. Never even in the thick of it. My B list sports celeb encounter trifecta....Joel Quinville, Moises Alou, Dave Wantsted. Wantsted was actually blocking the stairs getting a picture taken with his family. I welcomed him to Buffalo and talked shop. He did not enjoy the gin soaked Drane humor though. X's pick was at 8-1 last I looked.
darksabre Posted May 8, 2011 Report Posted May 8, 2011 What an awesome race. Watching AK come up on the outside was unreal. Mucho was my pick and I'm happy he showed. I think he had the speed to win but got hung up in the pack. Watching him follow AK to the front was awesome. I'm definitely putting a little money down next year.
Weave Posted May 8, 2011 Author Report Posted May 8, 2011 It was defintely an entertaining race. I had money on almost a third of the field. In the end, Only Nehro paid off for me. Oh well, it's all entertainment cash anyway. Fun stuff. Our crowd headed out and watched the race at Batavia Downs. By far it was the largest crowd watching a race at the Downs in quite a few years. I hope that means that the economy is turning and folks have a little extra cash to spend.
darksabre Posted May 8, 2011 Report Posted May 8, 2011 It was defintely an entertaining race. I had money on almost a third of the field. In the end, Only Nehro paid off for me. Oh well, it's all entertainment cash anyway. Fun stuff. Our crowd headed out and watched the race at Batavia Downs. By far it was the largest crowd watching a race at the Downs in quite a few years. I hope that means that the economy is turning and folks have a little extra cash to spend. The TV guys were saying this was the largest Derby crowd ever as well. I think my buddies and I might start hitting up Batavia once in a while. Since I got back into riding again it's definitely renewed my interest in the races.
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