All About July 1 wishes

[Lanny]

If you would like to spit out some more garbage in desperation, it would have been easier to say I'm a member of NAMBLA.

The North American Marlon Brando Look A-likes?

[Ghost of Dwight Drane]

The North American Marlon Brando Look A-likes?

 

:thumbsup:

[carpandean]

GoDD: I have to continue some of the argument that Taro started. You are confusing the idea of an "average team" and the average performance over all teams. You assume that all teams are equal and, thus, the chance of any given team winning at least one in three years is roughly 1/10 (actually about 9.6%, because there is some chance that other teams win more than once.)

 

To give you a rough number, let's say that you can group teams into 5 groups of 6 teams: top tier, above average, average, below average, and bottom feeder. To keep things simple, assume teams don't move from one category to the next over the three years. Then, I might estimate that in a given year, there would be a 60% chance that the Cup will be won by a top tier team (these teams are more likely to finish in the top seeds, which statistically have shown to be more likely to win the Cup), 30% chance that it will be won by an above average team, 10% chance that it will be won by an average team, and a negligible chance that it will be won by a below average or bottom feeder team. If the chances are roughly equal within at least the 6 "average" teams, then that would mean roughly a 1/60 chance that a given "average" team wins it in a given year. Thus, the chance that a given average team wins one in three years would be roughly 1/20 (= 1-(59/60)^3 = 4.9%.)

 

Obviously, these are just some rough numbers and may be off a bit, but what's important is that there are better teams that will have a higher chance of winning one or even multiple Cups and worse teams that will have little, if any, chance of winning even one. A truly average team would have well under a 1-in-10 chance of winning 1 Cup in 3 years.

[Ghost of Dwight Drane]

GoDD: I have to continue some of the argument that Taro started. You are confusing the idea of an "average team" and the average performance over all teams. You assume that all teams are equal and, thus, the chance of any given team winning at least one in three years is roughly 1/10 (actually about 9.6%, because there is some chance that other teams win more than once.)

 

To give you a rough number, let's say that you can group teams into 5 groups of 6 teams: top tier, above average, average, below average, and bottom feeder. To keep things simple, assume teams don't move from one category to the next over the three years. Then, I might estimate that in a given year, there would be a 60% chance that the Cup will be won by a top tier team (these teams are more likely to finish in the top seeds, which statistically have shown to be more likely to win the Cup), 30% chance that it will be won by an above average team, 10% chance that it will be won by an average team, and a negligible chance that it will be won by a below average or bottom feeder team. If the chances are roughly equal within at least the 6 "average" teams, then that would mean roughly a 1/60 chance that a given "average" team wins it in a given year. Thus, the chance that a given average team wins one in three years would be roughly 1/20 (= 1-(59/60)^3 = 4.9%.)

 

Obviously, these are just some rough numbers and may be off a bit, but what's important is that there are better teams that will have a higher chance of winning one or even multiple Cups and worse teams that will have little, if any, chance of winning even one. A truly average team would have well under a 1-in-10 chance of winning 1 Cup in 3 years.

 

 

 

What, are you in on the deal now too?

 

I understand......the question becomes are we trying to broker a wager here, or are we trying to say WHAT, the Sabres are?

 

I made a statement of my expectations. I expect them to win no more than 2 playoff series in the next 3 years. If that to you makes them average, sucky, or awesome...what I said is what I said. What you are doing is actually supporting my statement that by me saying they will not make it to a conference final in those 3 years is not me making a "comfortable" statement if in fact that accusation is coming from someone who says they are on the verge of greatness.

 

To me, my subjective definition of the Sabres is average. The only thing I quantified the Sabres themselves as doing is expecting them not to win more than 2 series. That means 100%, 51%, and anywhere inbetween. Just like when I said I can see the Bills winning more playoff games than the Sabres playoff series, it can be 1%-100% (and please don't say it can be .0000001, or pull infinity and zero into this!). I clarified and said my expectations were close to 30% because some people thought I was saying the Bills are great and the Sabres stink.

 

Now I'm tired.

 

Here's an easy question.....what odds do you think the Sabres will be to win the Cup next year? It could change over the next few months with roster moves, but what line do you put on them right now?

[Ghost of Dwight Drane]

I hereby declare that I will no longer refer to the Sabres as average.

 

 

I will now refer to the Buffalo Sabres as firmly entrenched in the suffering mediocrity that is Hockey Purgatory.

 

Sort of like Prince I guess. Although he is a better than average musician.

[BuffaloSoldier2010]

I understand, and I like Pegula and Black. I expected more of a business approach to making leadership decisions, but so far it has been fan-based and "feel-good". I think they are correct in identifying a culture change was needed, but the most efficient way of doing so has been passed by in my opinion in both maintaining status quo, and missing the first real chance to do something about the roster makeup.

I see what you mean, but perhaps the feel good and fan based focus was to gauge where the fan base was at? It definitely ushered in a culture change to say the least, and I'm not sure that the deadline would have in fact, been the best time to move everyone. Not saying it'd be a bad time, but maybe not the best.

 

Bear with me for a moment here and entertain this notion.

 

Granted, Timmers is now hurt and his stock has probably dropped from bad to worse since the lockout, that's really the only example where i think value has been lost.

 

I think if we're at the point where we have the deep, young defensive core, AND we have a dynamic pairing in net, the logical thing to do wouldn't be to trade for picks.

 

In my mind, when you have a solid up and coming defense along with the goal-tending to patch up any holes, the best thing to do would be to trade for your key offensive pieces.

 

I truly believe we have a better shot at signing that UFA we need in the off season, or trading for a key piece using picks and prospects during the off season from teams that have since been knocked out of the playoffs, than we ever would have at the deadline, especially considering how tight the races were this year.

 

I also think that abandoning ship at the deadline would not have been the best image the new management could have sent to the fan base. I'm glad they made the push they did, and i still think there's enough time to right this roster as soon as this upcoming off season.

 

but that's just me.

[LastPommerFan]

I see what you mean, but perhaps the feel good and fan based focus was to gauge where the fan base was at? It definitely ushered in a culture change to say the least, and I'm not sure that the deadline would have in fact, been the best time to move everyone. Not saying it'd be a bad time, but maybe not the best.

 

...

 

I think if we're at the point where we have the deep, young defensive core, AND we have a dynamic pairing in net, the logical thing to do wouldn't be to trade for picks.

 

In my mind, when you have a solid up and coming defense along with the goal-tending to patch up any holes, the best thing to do would be to trade for your key offensive pieces.

 

 

We do not need to move everyone and we do not have a solid up and coming defense, we have solid up and coming defensmen. There is a difference. Other than Pommers, we do not have an above average defensive forward returning. We will score plenty of goals next year with the roster we currently have in place. We will get solid, possibly great, goaltending. What we need is the ability to make teams work way harder to score goals.

 

Let me take a moment to make a key distinction about hockey:

 

Of the 4 major US sports, Hockey is the only one where having a poor defense hurts your ability to play offense. In Baseball, everyone gets the same offensive opportunities every game no mattter what (27 outs). In Football and Basketball, you get to play offense as soon as the other team scores, so the faster you get scored on, the more chance you get to put up (see Big XII Football for reference). Defensive failures are rewarded with offensive opportunities.

 

In hockey on the otherhand, you do not get to play offense until you've been successful on defense. A HUGE part of the Sabres Failure in the playoffs was our inability to finish off a defensive stand and clear the puck out of the zone. This is the defensive interaction between our D-men and our forwards, especially the puck side wing and centerman. We had two typical types of breakdown, D-man hesitation and premature forward evacuation*. What we need to add at the blueline is one strong veteran who can help improve the play of the 4-headed youth monster (AS/MW/CB/MAG). But we also need to add a centerman and a winger who can work the puck out of the zone once we gain possession. No matter how good Miller is, he can't clear the puck.

 

This plays back into the July 1 Discussion as well as the "Are the sabres really that close to being good" discussion because those defensive minded forwards are significantly less cap-spensive* than their point scoring bretheren. The strong veteran blueliner is more, but fortunately, there is a much stronger class of them coming UFA this year than the forwards, slowing the growth of their general market values and creating more opportunity for the sabres actually be able to get one.

 

All this said, if we play better on our side of the redline, we will be one of the most frightening teams to play against in the East, and match up well against the various western superpowers.

 

 

[* © "premature forward evacuation" and "cap-spensive" copyright LastPommerFan 2011]

[LastPommerFan]

My offseason looks like this:

 

Trade for a center from SJS, PIT, or PHI, the assets I'm shopping around are Gerbe (resigned at $5m/3yrs), Kassian, McNabb, Foligno, Scheistal, MAG($2M/2yrs), Butler($3.5M/3yrs), Weber ($3.5M/3yrs), all picks this year and next.

 

Sign Christian Erhoff at about $36M/6yrs on July 1st at 12:01pm.

 

Either sign stafford at $18M/4ys or less or trade his rights for a second yound pick. If he leaves, Gerbe comes off the tradeable list and we look for a third line winger on the FA market.

 

Attach A Bionic super-ankle to Jason Pominville.

 

We don't become the 1998 Wings with this, but there isn't a team in the East that would be better than even money against us in a 7 game series. We'd be top 5 in the NHL in GF and top 10 in GA.

[LGR4GM]

Average versus above average is irrelevant. the only thing that matters this offseason is progress. Signing drew to a reasonable deal is progress, signing one of those top ufa defnders is progress, trading for a center who will at least score is progress. The one thing we must remember is that right now we have some young but good defender and every year they develop they get better and in turn the sabres get better.

[LGR4GM]

We do not need to move everyone and we do not have a solid up and coming defense, we have solid up and coming defensmen. There is a difference. Other than Pommers, we do not have an above average defensive forward returning. We will score plenty of goals next year with the roster we currently have in place. We will get solid, possibly great, goaltending. What we need is the ability to make teams work way harder to score goals.

Yea that, is totally true our defense will be good but our offensive defense needs a major overhaul!

[carpandean]

What, are you in on the deal now too?

 

I understand......the question becomes are we trying to broker a wager here, or are we trying to say WHAT, the Sabres are?

 

I made a statement of my expectations. I expect them to win no more than 2 playoff series in the next 3 years. If that to you makes them average, sucky, or awesome...what I said is what I said. What you are doing is actually supporting my statement that by me saying they will not make it to a conference final in those 3 years is not me making a "comfortable" statement if in fact that accusation is coming from someone who says they are on the verge of greatness.

 

To me, my subjective definition of the Sabres is average. The only thing I quantified the Sabres themselves as doing is expecting them not to win more than 2 series. That means 100%, 51%, and anywhere inbetween. Just like when I said I can see the Bills winning more playoff games than the Sabres playoff series, it can be 1%-100% (and please don't say it can be .0000001, or pull infinity and zero into this!). I clarified and said my expectations were close to 30% because some people thought I was saying the Bills are great and the Sabres stink.

 

Now I'm tired.

 

Here's an easy question.....what odds do you think the Sabres will be to win the Cup next year? It could change over the next few months with roster moves, but what line do you put on them right now?

I am just a third-party neutral observer on this one, pointing out an error in mathematical logic. I wasn't arguing your or TW's stance on the Sabres, but rather correct the standard of what "average" means.

 

If the Sabres do nothing to change their roster, then I would share your assessment of their future potential. However, if they don't do anything to significantly change that roster, then Pegula hasn't had an effect, so what reason would anyone have to expect a different outcome than the last four years? However, I do expect some, possibly significant, changes to be made this Summer. If they do make, say, one significant change each on offense and defense, then I increase my estimate of their chances of winning series and winning the Cup. If they continue to make changes over the next two off seasons, then their odds would go up each season (if they can make smart choices.) I can't really give an estimate of their chances because I don't know what those moves will be. If they can add a number one center and top pairing defenseman in this offseason or next, then I definitely would find your estimates to be low. You seem to assume that they won't do much, which is fine for you to believe, but you don't know that it's true.

[Ghost of Dwight Drane]

I am just a third-party neutral observer on this one, pointing out an error in mathematical logic. I wasn't arguing your or TW's stance on the Sabres, but rather correct the standard of what "average" means.

 

If the Sabres do nothing to change their roster, then I would share your assessment of their future potential. However, if they don't do anything to significantly change that roster, then Pegula hasn't had an effect, so what reason would anyone have to expect a different outcome than the last four years? However, I do expect some, possibly significant, changes to be made this Summer. If they do make, say, one significant change each on offense and defense, then I increase my estimate of their chances of winning series and winning the Cup. If they continue to make changes over the next two off seasons, then their odds would go up each season (if they can make smart choices.) I can't really give an estimate of their chances because I don't know what those moves will be. If they can add a number one center and top pairing defenseman in this offseason or next, then I definitely would find your estimates to be low. You seem to assume that they won't do much, which is fine for you to believe, but you don't know that it's true.

 

Well.....I'm on record.

[BuffaloSoldier2010]

We do not need to move everyone and we do not have a solid up and coming defense, we have solid up and coming defensmen. There is a difference. Other than Pommers, we do not have an above average defensive forward returning. We will score plenty of goals next year with the roster we currently have in place. We will get solid, possibly great, goaltending. What we need is the ability to make teams work way harder to score goals.

 

Let me take a moment to make a key distinction about hockey:

 

Of the 4 major US sports, Hockey is the only one where having a poor defense hurts your ability to play offense. In Baseball, everyone gets the same offensive opportunities every game no mattter what (27 outs). In Football and Basketball, you get to play offense as soon as the other team scores, so the faster you get scored on, the more chance you get to put up (see Big XII Football for reference). Defensive failures are rewarded with offensive opportunities.

 

In hockey on the otherhand, you do not get to play offense until you've been successful on defense. A HUGE part of the Sabres Failure in the playoffs was our inability to finish off a defensive stand and clear the puck out of the zone. This is the defensive interaction between our D-men and our forwards, especially the puck side wing and centerman. We had two typical types of breakdown, D-man hesitation and premature forward evacuation*. What we need to add at the blueline is one strong veteran who can help improve the play of the 4-headed youth monster (AS/MW/CB/MAG). But we also need to add a centerman and a winger who can work the puck out of the zone once we gain possession. No matter how good Miller is, he can't clear the puck.

 

This plays back into the July 1 Discussion as well as the "Are the sabres really that close to being good" discussion because those defensive minded forwards are significantly less cap-spensive* than their point scoring bretheren. The strong veteran blueliner is more, but fortunately, there is a much stronger class of them coming UFA this year than the forwards, slowing the growth of their general market values and creating more opportunity for the sabres actually be able to get one.

 

All this said, if we play better on our side of the redline, we will be one of the most frightening teams to play against in the East, and match up well against the various western superpowers.

 

 

[* © "premature forward evacuation" and "cap-spensive" copyright LastPommerFan 2011]

when i say everyone, i was simply referring to the players many believe we should have unloaded at the deadline.

[LastPommerFan]

when i say everyone, i was simply referring to the players many believe we should have unloaded at the deadline.

 

I think the playoff experience for the young players, especially since it went seven games, was worth more to the sabres in the next 5 years than anything we could have got for connoly, morrisonn, staff, or monty. It think everyone else is just as valuable now as they were then, so I agree with you that holding them was the best idea. so if morrisson can be moved now for a pick, great, otherwise, I'm not sure anyone left (since TC and Monty are gone) really needs to be moved. Trade for improvement or to meet needs, sure, but I think there are more pieces here than many people on this board would like to believe.

[BuffaloSoldier2010]

I think the playoff experience for the young players, especially since it went seven games, was worth more to the sabres in the next 5 years than anything we could have got for connoly, morrisonn, staff, or monty. It think everyone else is just as valuable now as they were then, so I agree with you that holding them was the best idea. so if morrisson can be moved now for a pick, great, otherwise, I'm not sure anyone left (since TC and Monty are gone) really needs to be moved. Trade for improvement or to meet needs, sure, but I think there are more pieces here than many people on this board would like to believe.

You're agreeing with me, i said the exact same thing a few pages back, it was my first post into all of this. All I'm saying is that perhaps the deadline wasn't in fact the best time to get rid of these players, and maybe the off season can bring a better return.

[LastPommerFan]

You're agreeing with me, i said the exact same thing a few pages back, it was my first post into all of this. All I'm saying is that perhaps the deadline wasn't in fact the best time to get rid of these players, and maybe the off season can bring a better return.

 

Yup I was agreeing with you when I said, "so I agree with you..."

 

The part I am not agreeing with, and it wasn't really your position, is that we need to unload everyone and start from scratch. I don't think we need to do that. I think that position is based on the idea that there are 2 dozen players scoring 40 goals every year. Which there aren't. Pommers, Vanek, and Roy are a great start toward the goal scoring you need to win the cup. Throw Ennis and Gerbe in there, the faceoff wiz, and a grinders like McCormick and Kaleta that can change a game with a hit and occasionally a goal, and our forwards are just a couple of players away from being top notch. And I don't think those couple of players need to be named Richards or Stamkos.

[SwampD]

Yup I was agreeing with you when I said, "so I agree with you..."

 

The part I am not agreeing with, and it wasn't really your position, is that we need to unload everyone and start from scratch. I don't think we need to do that. I think that position is based on the idea that there are 2 dozen players scoring 40 goals every year. Which there aren't. Pommers, Vanek, and Roy are a great start toward the goal scoring you need to win the cup. Throw Ennis and Gerbe in there, the faceoff wiz, and a grinders like McCormick and Kaleta that can change a game with a hit and occasionally a goal, and our forwards are just a couple of players away from being top notch. And I don't think those couple of players need to be named Richards or Stamkos.

My greatest fear this offseason is that Darcy agrees with this.

[LastPommerFan]

My greatest fear this offseason is that Darcy agrees with this.

 

Please back this fear up with a reason. Everyone seems to agree with you, I want to know why we need a 30 goal 80 point centerman. [this is a loaded request, but please humor me]

[SwampD]

Please back this fear up with a reason. Everyone seems to agree with you, I want to know why we need a 30 goal 80 point centerman. [this is a loaded request, but please humor me]

I don't know if the team needs one but I sure do. I'm tired of Darcy's "when the players get better then they'll be better" approach to improving the team. I want to get a guy that I know will make the team better immediately. No guessing.

 

Also, the whole concept of "we can roll four lines" sounds great an'all, and it may work in the regular season, but late in games the deeper we get into the playoffs, teams rarely roll four lines. The better your top line is the better chance you have of moving on. I really want to see the Sabres move on someday.

[LGR4GM]

Please back this fear up with a reason. Everyone seems to agree with you, I want to know why we need a 30 goal 80 point centerman. [this is a loaded request, but please humor me]

See Ryan Kesler's goal with 14 seconds left in game 5 of the Western Conference Finals. See Nathan Horton's goal with 7 minutes left in game seven of the Eastern Conference Finals. See Drury's goal against the NYR with 7 seconds left in the Eastern Semifinals of 07. All guys who have that ability to make an impact and do. If we had a brad richards or a stamkos type player it gives the other team 1 more guy to worry about and 1 more threat for us to use against them. We need someone besides roy and vanek, we need THAT GUY.

 

Deep in the playoffs with the game on the line you do not roll Mckormick or Kaleta you roll Vanek, Roy, Myers, MAG, and maybe pommers or drew. Well now we have rolled them and they are tired but the games still on the line so we roll.... Richards, Drew/boyes, gerbe, weber leopold and because you have Richards that line is as potent as the first. WE must have a 70pt at least center. Otherwise that line turns into Boyes, Ennis maybe, Drew, Leo, weber, I am less impressed immediately.

[LastPommerFan]

I don't know if the team needs one but I sure do. I'm tired of Darcy's "when the players get better then they'll be better" approach to improving...

 

 

See Ryan Kesler's goal with 14 seconds left in game 5 of the Western Conference Finals. See Nathan Horton's goal with 7 minutes left in game seven of the Eastern Conference Finals. See Drury's goal against the NYR with 7 seconds left in the Eastern Semifinals of 07...

 

We don't need that goal if our Defense is better, and I'm refering to our 5 man defensive ability. I would much rather see the Sabres sign a center like Mike Peca was than a 80 pointer who averages -7. I want a hard nosed defensive guy that sees the whole ice at both ends. That guy plus Christian Ehrhoff and maybe a third pair vet join the squad, and two thing happen. First our GA goes from 229 to somewhere around 200. Second, we play 4-5 more minutes a game in the other end. That is what Vanek/Ennis/Gerbe/Stafford need. More shifts on attack.

 

To be clear, if we can get Richards/Stamkos/Stasney without shipping out the entire future or signing a deal that puts Richards on the books for 25 years and eats so much of the cap that we can't get a Top D-Man, I'm all for it. Obviously I'd rather have him than not, but this team is dangerous with a defense, and we're just a couple of skaters away from being that team.

[deluca67]

My greatest fear this offseason is that Darcy agrees with this.

My greatest fear is that Pegula is still too starry-eyed at this point and Regier will be able to sell him on bringing in the lower tiered free-agents which are the only ones Regier can sign.

 

Is there any doubt that next season the Regier defenders will be flooding the boards with players the Sabres "tried" to sign and trades Regier "tried" to make but couldn't get them done.

[deluca67]

We don't need that goal if our Defense is better, and I'm refering to our 5 man defensive ability. I would much rather see the Sabres sign a center like Mike Peca was than a 80 pointer who averages -7. I want a hard nosed defensive guy that sees the whole ice at both ends. That guy plus Christian Ehrhoff and maybe a third pair vet join the squad, and two thing happen. First our GA goes from 229 to somewhere around 200. Second, we play 4-5 more minutes a game in the other end. That is what Vanek/Ennis/Gerbe/Stafford need. More shifts on attack.

 

To be clear, if we can get Richards/Stamkos/Stasney without shipping out the entire future or signing a deal that puts Richards on the books for 25 years and eats so much of the cap that we can't get a Top D-Man, I'm all for it. Obviously I'd rather have him than not, but this team is dangerous with a defense, and we're just a couple of skaters away from being that team.

This team is far from dangerous. Spending time this playoffs looking at the collection of forwards many teams have in the East is all you need to realize how far off the Sabres are.

[inkman]

My greatest fear is that Pegula is still too starry-eyed at this point and Regier will be able to sell him on bringing in the lower tiered free-agents which are the only ones Regier can sign.

I'm as leery as anyone when it comes to Reiger but can we give him one off season without penny pinching OSP and meddling Larry Quinn involved in the situation.

 

If the Sabres start next season with only having acquired mediocre to sub par players, I'm sure you won't be alone in banging the Darcy sucks drum. You just seem to be on this never ending quest to set up this ultimate "I told you so moment". Stop trying so hard.

[tom webster]

This team is far from dangerous. Spending time this playoffs looking at the collection of forwards many teams have in the East is all you need to realize how far off the Sabres are.

 

You are so funny. You use stats when they serve your purpose and anecdotal evidence when the stats don't work. This team had one center for half a year and no centers for the rest and yet had two 30 goal scorer, another forward who scored on a 30 goal pace the second half the year, another forward who finished in the top 10 rookie scorers and another scorer who scored on a 25 goal pace after overcoming concussion problems. They finished near the top of the East in goal scoring . You put a legit center on this team and it has the wingers.

Unfortunately your sick of them or bored with them or whatever so all these teams who can't outscore them are more dangerous then them.

Going back outside. Have a great holiday weekend.