All About July 1 wishes

[deluca67]

Agreed. What you need to win in today's NHL is a good goaltender combined with great defense. Just look at all of the previous cup winners. They all had good goaltenders or guys that player amazing in goal while in the playoffs. Even the 4 teams remaining have great D... Buffalo only has the star goalie, but the defense Is only half as good as Bostons/Vancouvers...

"Good" versus "star" is the debate. You can get "good" goaltending for less than the $6+ mil the Sabres are paying Miller.

[SwampD]

"Good" versus "star" is the debate. You can get "good" goaltending for less than the $6+ mil the Sabres are paying Miller.

Yes, you can get a good goaltender for less than that, but the problem with this line of thinking is that it's a gamble. You might get a Niemi. You might get a Neuvirth. With Miller you know you get a good (to great) goalie and I think that that is worth paying for.

[LGR4GM]

I keep saying it, we are going to have to suck it up and deal with the growing pains of our defense. We can bring in a couple vets but within 3 years its going to be McNabb, Myers, Weber, MAG and probably sekera/butler and pysyk and if they get great before miller leaves I bet miller's numbers go way up. Also he has won at least 30 games every year since 05-06 season... be curious to know what that ranks.

[Gramps]

I keep saying it, we are going to have to suck it up and deal with the growing pains of our defense. We can bring in a couple vets but within 3 years its going to be McNabb, Myers, Weber, MAG and probably sekera/butler and pysyk and if they get great before miller leaves I bet miller's numbers go way up. Also he has won at least 30 games every year since 05-06 season... be curious to know what that ranks.

Since the lockout, Miller ranks 4th in wins (181) behind Kiprusoff (201), Brodeur (199) & Luongo (190)

[nobody]

Staffords Career

Year ---------Team-----GP-----G----A----Pts----+/-__GW----SOG----Pct

2006-07--------BUF-----41----13---14----27-----5------3-----67-----.194

2007-08--------BUF-----64----16---22----38-----3------5-----103----.155

2008-09--------BUF-----79----20---25----45-----3------0-----183----.109

2009-10--------BUF-----71----14---20----34-----4------1-----181----.077

2010-11--------BUF-----62----31---21----52-----13-----4-----179----.173

Career___________317----94---102---196---28-----13----713----.132

 

 

I'm always looking for forwards to have a shooting 'percentage' over .1 - which Stafford has done pretty well. So I could live with resigning him for $3 mil. But he needs to increase his shots on goal to about 3.5 shots per game at a minimum. That will get him near the top in the league and get him to around 40 goals if he keeps his shooting percentage where it has been.

[LastPommerFan]

I had to peek. :rolleyes:

 

Stafford was tied for 21st in goal scoring.

 

Pominville was tied for 81st in points.

 

As has been previous posted, Stafford had a career year. If there was any thought that Stafford could stay at that level of scoring or even bettering that total I wouldn't have any issue with the Sabres paying him. The problem with Stafford is that he doesn't come across as the type of player to make the level of commitment needed. The Sabres are facing a another possible Connolly/Pominville situation.

 

It would be great if Pominville was making $3-$3.5 mil. The problem is that he doesn't. That's another $2 mil to through on the pile of misspent money that could be used to bring in top end talent.

 

Pommer was on pace for 25 goals this season despite playing significantly hampered while recovering from a concussion. You'd pay $2M for 5 more goals?

[inkman]

We can argue back and forth about how much we'd give drew stafford, but me thinks the architects of hockey heaven are going to want to set a good example while the rest of the players are looking on. I fully expect drew back at market value, like it or not.

[LGR4GM]

We can argue back and forth about how much we'd give drew stafford, but me thinks the architects of hockey heaven are going to want to set a good example while the rest of the players are looking on. I fully expect drew back at market value, like it or not.

Whats market value for a 25 yr old whos only ever broken 50pts once? IT doesnt make us hockey heaven buy overpaying underachievers, it makes us Hockey welfare.

[Lanny]

Whats market value for a 25 yr old whos only ever broken 50pts once? IT doesnt make us hockey heaven buy overpaying underachievers, it makes us Hockey welfare.

Moulson signed 3 yrs $9.4M last offseason after scoring 48 pts. Grabner just resigned 5 years $15M. Both have less of a track record than Stafford had previous to this offseason. Also neither had the ability to go to arbitration nor were they passing up UFA years, so I'd say the market value would be somewhere around 3-5 years @ $3.75M-$4.5M per.

 

Couple others I found that could be similar, all broke only 50 pts once prior to extension: RJ Umberger signed 4 yr $15M in 2008, $3.75 cap hit; Louie Eriksson 6 yrs $25M in 2009, $4.267M cap hit; David Booth 6yrs $25.5M in 2009, $4.25M cap hit; Matthew Lombardi 3 yrs $10.5M, $3.5M cap hit; Travis Zajac 4yrs $15.55M in 2009, $3.888M cap hit

[tom webster]

What I see, even from posters I often disagree with but whose opinions I respect, (Deluca, PA, Kristian, et al) is a lack of understanding of what is going on with the cap and league wide production. There aren't a plethora of players scoring more then 25 to 30 goals in a year. Stafford and Pominville both finished tied for 77th amongst forwards in points. Pominville has routinely been there while playing the penalty kill and being responsible defensively.

Its simple math.

There are 30 teams, 90 forwards that make up those top two lines.

The cap this year will likely be $62.2 million. $5.3 million will not be that far out of whack for a forward whose production and value to the club puts him in the top 60 forwards. Paying someone $5.3 out of $62.2 million is like paying someone $3.6 out of $39.9 million.

As for Stafford, I think he's a different player then he was two years ago. Sports teams pay for potential and if he continues to develop into a 30-35 goal scorer if not more, $4.5 will be a bargain.

[Ghost of Dwight Drane]

What I see, even from posters I often disagree with but whose opinions I respect, (Deluca, PA, Kristian, et al) is a lack of understanding of what is going on with the cap and league wide production. There aren't a plethora of players scoring more then 25 to 30 goals in a year. Stafford and Pominville both finished tied for 77th amongst forwards in points. Pominville has routinely been there while playing the penalty kill and being responsible defensively.

Its simple math.

There are 30 teams, 90 forwards that make up those top two lines.

The cap this year will likely be $62.2 million. $5.3 million will not be that far out of whack for a forward whose production and value to the club puts him in the top 60 forwards. Paying someone $5.3 out of $62.2 million is like paying someone $3.6 out of $39.9 million.

As for Stafford, I think he's a different player then he was two years ago. Sports teams pay for potential and if he continues to develop into a 30-35 goal scorer if not more, $4.5 will be a bargain.

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cr6CnG5dmvM

[tom webster]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cr6CnG5dmvM

 

 

Prefer ELP's arrangement. Which one of us is blowin in the wind?

[Ghost of Dwight Drane]

Prefer ELP's arrangement. Which one of us is blowin in the wind?

 

ELP is the best band of all time, at least talent-wise.

 

I'm all for Stafford going to arb and taking home $4.5 next year. Stafford will be a better player on another team that can work with his talents.

[tom webster]

ELP is the best band of all time, at least talent-wise.

 

I'm all for Stafford going to arb and taking home $4.5 next year. Stafford will be a better player on another team that can work with his talents.

 

 

Nothing like seeing Carl Palmer spinning 360 while the sound traveled around CN Stadium. 1978/79 I think.

 

Stafford will be a Sabre next year making $4.25 with a cap hit of $4.5.

[LGR4GM]

We can argue back and forth about how much we'd give drew stafford, but me thinks the architects of hockey heaven are going to want to set a good example while the rest of the players are looking on. I fully expect drew back at market value, like it or not.

 

 

Whats market value for a 25 yr old whos only ever broken 50pts once? IT doesnt make us hockey heaven buy overpaying underachievers, it makes us Hockey welfare.

 

 

Moulson signed 3 yrs $9.4M last offseason after scoring 48 pts. Grabner just resigned 5 years $15M. Both have less of a track record than Stafford had previous to this offseason. Also neither had the ability to go to arbitration nor were they passing up UFA years, so I'd say the market value would be somewhere around 3-5 years @ $3.75M-$4.5M per.Couple others I found that could be similar, all broke only 50 pts once prior to extension: RJ Umberger signed 4 yr $15M in 2008, $3.75 cap hit; Louie Eriksson 6 yrs $25M in 2009, $4.267M cap hit; David Booth 6yrs $25.5M in 2009, $4.25M cap hit; Matthew Lombardi 3 yrs $10.5M, $3.5M cap hit; Travis Zajac 4yrs $15.55M in 2009, $3.888M cap hit

 

 

What I see, even from posters I often disagree with but whose opinions I respect, (Deluca, PA, Kristian, et al) is a lack of understanding of what is going on with the cap and league wide production. There aren't a plethora of players scoring more then 25 to 30 goals in a year. Stafford and Pominville both finished tied for 77th amongst forwards in points. Pominville has routinely been there while playing the penalty kill and being responsible defensively.Its simple math.There are 30 teams, 90 forwards that make up those top two lines. The cap this year will likely be $62.2 million. $5.3 million will not be that far out of whack for a forward whose production and value to the club puts him in the top 60 forwards. Paying someone $5.3 out of $62.2 million is like paying someone $3.6 out of $39.9 million.As for Stafford, I think he's a different player then he was two years ago. Sports teams pay for potential and if he continues to develop into a 30-35 goal scorer if not more, $4.5 will be a bargain.

What does all this mean? It means simply this: You either value stafford for what he is, or you value him for what he MIGHT become.

 

I value him for what he is. I guy who has never proven himself and 30 goals once doesnt do it for me. Maybe if he had back to back years I would say yup we got something but as of right now I have seen this team pay way to much for "potential"

 

Also saying that if stafford develops into a 30-35 goal scorer its fair to pay 4.5mil is true. But I havent seen that. I saw him score goals from being parked in front of the net and a couple of those hat trick games were just routs anyways. Hes not a game changer. Does he have the potential to be one? Yes. But it pisses me off that we will say miller isnt a game changer an is overpaid but we then turn around and our willing to overpay drew for the potential to be great... it just doesnt make sense. 3.5-4ish is what hes worth anything over 4 is far to high and I think honestly anything around 4 is pushing it. Sign him to a 2-3 year deal and you can reevaluate but as of this second in time, I have seen nothing from stafford that makes me think he will be a consistent 60-70pt player.

 

I honestly do not care if he scored 30 goals because how many of his goals were him sitting by the net shoveling rebounds into an empty net? Quite a few, which is fine but is not worth top dollar and the cap could go up to 62mil no doubt, but that ='s an extra 3-4mil which is 1 player or you could spread out small raises over 4-6 guys. It does not mean you go and pay Drew 5mil (same as Ryan Freaking Kesler) because he has "potential"

 

52 points in my book doesnt equal 4.5-5mil. Cuz guess what, an Assist and a Goal mean the same thing to the team, "We scored"

[Ghost of Dwight Drane]

Nothing like seeing Carl Palmer spinning 360 while the sound traveled around CN Stadium. 1978/79 I think.

 

Stafford will be a Sabre next year making $4.25 with a cap hit of $4.5.

 

I have never seen ELP. They busted up before my time. There are few things in life I would use the word amazing on, but their music is one of them.

 

I'm sure Stafford will be here.

[tom webster]

What does all this mean? It means simply this: You either value stafford for what he is, or you value him for what he MIGHT become.

 

I value him for what he is. I guy who has never proven himself and 30 goals once doesnt do it for me. Maybe if he had back to back years I would say yup we got something but as of right now I have seen this team pay way to much for "potential"

 

Also saying that if stafford develops into a 30-35 goal scorer its fair to pay 4.5mil is true. But I havent seen that. I saw him score goals from being parked in front of the net and a couple of those hat trick games were just routs anyways. Hes not a game changer. Does he have the potential to be one? Yes. But it pisses me off that we will say miller isnt a game changer an is overpaid but we then turn around and our willing to overpay drew for the potential to be great... it just doesnt make sense. 3.5-4ish is what hes worth anything over 4 is far to high and I think honestly anything around 4 is pushing it. Sign him to a 2-3 year deal and you can reevaluate but as of this second in time, I have seen nothing from stafford that makes me think he will be a consistent 60-70pt player.

 

I honestly do not care if he scored 30 goals because how many of his goals were him sitting by the net shoveling rebounds into an empty net? Quite a few, which is fine but is not worth top dollar and the cap could go up to 62mil no doubt, but that ='s an extra 3-4mil which is 1 player or you could spread out small raises over 4-6 guys. It does not mean you go and pay Drew 5mil (same as Ryan Freaking Kesler) because he has "potential"

 

52 points in my book doesnt equal 4.5-5mil. Cuz guess what, an Assist and a Goal mean the same thing to the team, "We scored"

 

 

Only one of his hat tricks was a route(Tampa). He was second on the team in GWG. Salaries go up as the cap goes up. Timing is everything.

[Weave]

What does all this mean? It means simply this: You either value stafford for what he is, or you value him for what he MIGHT become.

 

IMO last season was "what he MIGHT become". That was his breakout year. He gets paid for that season cuz that's his top end. I think anything over $4M is too much for what we saw. But given the FA list right now I don't know that we can replace him for that much. As far as I am concerned, he's a sign and trade guy.

 

But it pisses me off that we will say miller isnt a game changer an is overpaid but we then turn around and our willing to overpay drew for the potential to be great... it just doesnt make sense.

 

My only comment here is, if you look at the posts, I think you will find that the few who are calling Miller overpaid are among those that want Stafford signed cheap or moved out. None of the anti-Miller crowd is pining to keep Staff at 4.5M.

 

It would be interesting to see what Stafford could do with a top center. We might be much happier with the results. Unfortantely I don't think we are going to see it. My money is on Stafford being moved as part of teh package that brings in our #1 center.

[LastPommerFan]

I still think that if we're going to trade to improve its going to follow this method:

 

 

Sabres get: Top Line/Pair talent with big cap number and (hopefully) the production to back it up

Sabres sell: Potential and Cheap production with low cap numbers. Draft Picks may be added to sweeten the deal.

 

This makes Gerbe, Ennis, MAG, Butler, Weber, Sekera as far as cheap production. Kassian, Adam, and even Enroth for their potential. I'm not saying I wouldn't trade anyone, I think there are offers that could be made to get me to part with any player short of maybe Myers. What I am saying is that these 9 players are the ones that our potential trading partners will be looking for. Nobody's going to be looking to take a $4.5M Stafford, $4M Boyes, $3.5M Hecht. The teams we will be looking to trade with are near the cap (or internal budget), not currrently stanley cup contenders, and have lots of young players to sign this off season.

 

Edit: Move MAG to the potential list.

[Lanny]

What does all this mean? It means simply this: You either value stafford for what he is, or you value him for what he MIGHT become.

Every players contract is based on what he might become. If he had more 30 goal seasons he'd be more of a sure thing, bringing his contract up to Bobby Ryan level, 5-yrs $25.5M.

[Lanny]

It would be interesting to see what Stafford could do with a top center. We might be much happier with the results. Unfortantely I don't think we are going to see it. My money is on Stafford being moved as part of teh package that brings in our #1 center.

I think that makes alot of sense. Especially with having Pville & Boyes both also playing RW.

[shrader]

Would Pomminstein be a better comparison? The Sabres are still waiting for Pominville to return to being the 30+ goal scorer they thought they signed at $5.5 mil a season.

 

IMO, Stafford will always be a guy at about 15-20 goals a season. He had a career year this season during a contract year which isn't that unusual. After watching Stafford play the last five seasons I just don't see a player committed to being the type of player the Sabres need that is worthy of a larger contract. Right now Stafford is a $2.3 which is a bit high for him. The league mandates at least a 10% raise and that is all I would be willing to pay Stafford. $2.53 is still a bit much for a player like Stafford.

 

This was a new Drew Stafford this past season. The kid actually learned how to play defense this past season, something that was completely lost on him for his entire career. That's a definite sign of a commitment to winning. Defensive hockey doesn't get you a big pay day, goals do. Yeah, it's possible that the whole thing was just a product of a contract year, but with a guy massively improving in both ends of the ice like Stafford did this year, it looks to me like a situation where things finally clicked with him.

 

That said, if he's not here next year, it shouldn't be because they let him walk. If nothing else, he should be a chip used to help bring in that center we need so badly.

[Claude_Verret]

Yes, you can get a good goaltender for less than that, but the problem with this line of thinking is that it's a gamble. You might get a Niemi. You might get a Neuvirth. With Miller you know you get a good (to great) goalie and I think that that is worth paying for.

 

Thank you. You pay the premium partly for the peace of mind of knowing what you got.

[LastPommerFan]

Attached is the top 30+ centers by points from this past season. I added Erik Cole at the end as he will be a UFA and was close on points. I'm assuming these are the guys we are talking about when we say we need a #1 Center. Of the 32 I've listed there are 2 UFAs, 1 RFA, 13 with NTCs, and 16 without. I've included next years cap number and the number of years remaining on the contract.

 

So....

 

Who do you get, and how do you get him?

 

#1 Centers.pdf

 

 

Edit: Data from Capgeek and ESPN.com

 

Edit 2: Ignore the cole thing, he's a winger. and I'm an idiot.

[shrader]

Attached is the top 30+ centers by points from this past season. I added Erik Cole at the end as he will be a UFA and was close on points. I'm assuming these are the guys we are talking about when we say we need a #1 Center. Of the 32 I've listed there are 2 UFAs, 1 RFA, 13 with NTCs, and 16 without. I've included next years cap number and the number of years remaining on the contract.

 

So....

 

Who do you get, and how do you get him?

 

#1 Centers.pdf

 

Ok, I haven't paid much attention to Carolina recently, but isn't Cole a wing?