bottlecap Posted March 16, 2006 Report Posted March 16, 2006 I hope we can correct this embarrassing problem. Besides that, I am hard-pressed to find anything wrong with this team. It's the best balanced Sabres team I have ever seen, since 1970.
Corp000085 Posted March 16, 2006 Report Posted March 16, 2006 I'm trying to find a positive in that problem. The only thing i can come up with is that its a coaching problem and not a skill problem. Seems like all it would take would be a change of philosophy, one film session and one practice session to address it. I hope this happens before the playoffs.
Stoner Posted March 16, 2006 Report Posted March 16, 2006 It's not a "problem" for Ruff. He has said he accepts the shorties because a more aggressive approach leads to more power play goals. Someone should do the math and figure out where our power play stands in the category of "net goals." Still very high, I'm sure.
Taro T Posted March 16, 2006 Report Posted March 16, 2006 I'm trying to find a positive in that problem. The only thing i can come up with is that its a coaching problem and not a skill problem. Seems like all it would take would be a change of philosophy, one film session and one practice session to address it. I hope this happens before the playoffs. As someone (Topshelf, I think) posted here yesterday, the Sabres net a lot more powerplay goals for than most teams even with the 16 shorthanded against. The Sabres are 2nd in PP% at 21.6%, they are 5th in net PP% ((ppgf - shga)/ppo) at 17.5%, are 2nd in ppg/gm at 1.31, and are 7th in net ppg/gm at 1.06. Their powerplay is NETTING more than a goal per game on average. When you combine that with their penalty kill stats, that will result in a lot more W's than L's even with them giving up a shorthanded goal every 4 games. Just as an FYI, the penalty kill stats are also excellent. 3rd overall - 85.7% 4th in net - 87.8% 2nd in ppga/gm - 0.75 3rd in net ppga/gm - 0.64 Come playoff time, it's all special teams and goaltending. The Sabres have the special teams and could have the goaltending.
Stoner Posted March 16, 2006 Report Posted March 16, 2006 Dave, how many times have I told you to do your homework before posting! Corp... is there anything we can do about this guy?
Larry Playfair Posted March 16, 2006 Report Posted March 16, 2006 Dave, how many times have I told you to do your homework before posting! Corp... is there anything we can do about this guy? he never has ANY facts to back up his bs opinions! Go sabes - smash the leafs!
Corp000085 Posted March 16, 2006 Report Posted March 16, 2006 Dave, how many times have I told you to do your homework before posting! Corp... is there anything we can do about this guy? I can't suspend a blind squirrel for finding a nut! I can only suspend people who don't include links to hot babes in their posts.
topshelfcookies Posted March 16, 2006 Report Posted March 16, 2006 Howdy Boys, Since I have the week off for Spring Break, I did figure out some PP stats the other day. However, this argument has intrigued me enough to delve a little deeper. It should be noted before we begin, that I absolutely do not mind the number of PPG's the Sabres have allowed, because I think it's worth it. However, what do the stats say? Be patient, hopefully this will make sense in the end. Also, SHGA is Short Handed Goals Allowed, and all stats are from espn.com on Thursday afternoon. SHGA(teams in bold are currently in top 8 in East/West) Buffalo - 16 Pittsburgh - 15 Washington - 15 Toronto - 11 Phoenix - 11 Nashville - 11 Anaheim - 11 LA - 10 Chicago - 10 Carolina - 9 Obviously, this stat can be generalized as something that all the really bad teams in the league have in common(with the exception of STL, who, go figure, has allowed just 4 SHG, the fewest in the league), BUT there are other playoff type teams in the top 10. Also, as of today, Anaheim is just 2 points out of 8th in the West. So while the Sabres have certainly allowed the most, they aren't the only teams to have allowed a fair amount of SHG. Of course, the difference is, of the 10 teams above, the Sabres have also scored the most PPGs. PPG Detroit - 87 Buffalo - 84 Atlanta- 84 Toronto - 82 Phoenix - 81 Carolina - 80 Colorado - 79 Ottawa - 78 Vancouver - 78 Edmonton - 75 If you feel that a SHG effectively neutralizes a PPG, then the Sabres would have "come out ahead" on 68 of 388 PP Opportunities, which means that 17.5% of the time the Sabres would have gained a scoring advantage while on the PP. This is what Dave B was getting at. WITHOUT adjusting the other teams, a 17.5% "success" rate, would place the Sabres tied with Philadelphia for 18th in the NHL. This is pretty extraordinary. Here's how the top 10 PP teams look, if you cancel out a PPG for each SHGA. The formula I used (for those that care) is... PPG-SHGA then that total divided PP opportunities. Here are the Top 10 PP teams with thier current conversion rates, followed by conversion rates adjusted for allowing SHGs. Team Current PP% "Adjusted SHGA" % Differential in % DET 23.5 21.6 1.9 BUF 21.6 17.5 4.1 OTT 20.6 18.5 2.1 TOR 20.2 17.4 2.8 COL 19.6 17.3 2.3 ATL 19.4 17.7 1.7 MON 19.0 17.8 1.2 CAR 18.5 16.4 2.1 PHX 18.4 15.9 2.5 EDM 18.4 17.4 1 So, of the Top 10 PP teams in the NHL, the Sabres do "suffer" the most from allowing SHG, though notice that their "adjusted %" is STILL pretty much right in the middle of the top 10 teams at 17.5%. I think what I'm trying to state is that despite the amount of SHGA, the Sabres PP unit would still be one of the most formidable units in the league, certainly one of the top units of the teams heading into the second season. This is the point I made the other day, regarding the PP and SHGA in the playoffs... Look at it this way, the Sabres are averaging giving up a SHG once every 4 games. However, over the course of 4 games, they've been averaging scoring 5+ PPGs. Therefore, in a 7 game series, they would average giving up not quite 2SHG (1.75 actually). They would also score approximately 9PPGs. That's a difference of 7 goals a series, or a goal a game over the course of a series. Game 1, Round 1 vs the Flyers, we're essentially starting off with a 1 goal lead. It should be noted, that one of the reasons that Ottawa would be such a tough match up for the Sabres, is that Ottawa has currently scored the most SHG in the league, 20! That's a little bit of a scary thought. The Sabres have scored just 7 SHG this season. Whew...time for a beer and the Leafs game!
JujuFish Posted March 16, 2006 Report Posted March 16, 2006 That's a difference of 7 goals a series, or a goal a game over the course of a series. Game 1, Round 1 vs the Flyers, we're essentially starting off with a 1 goal lead. No, we're not. Buffalo's netted 1.0625PPG/G (84PPG-16SHGA)/64G Philadelphia's netted 0.9394PPG/G (66PPG-4SHGA)/66G Disregarding PK, we'd essentially be starting off with a 0.1231 goal lead.
Taro T Posted March 16, 2006 Report Posted March 16, 2006 One thing that hasn't been mentioned about the SHGA the Sabres have given up is, because the Sabres use 4 forwards on the PP and they EXPECT to give up a fair number of shorties, I don't think SHG's against the Sabres are as much of a momentum shifter as they are when most teams give them up. Typically, a SHG is a significant momentum shifter as the SH team is pumped and the scored on team takes a blow to the solar plexus. The Sabres don't (typically) suffer the letdown associated with giving up a SHG.
Rock DJ Posted March 17, 2006 Report Posted March 17, 2006 I can't suspend a blind squirrel for finding a nut! I can only suspend people who don't include links to hot babes in their posts. That's cause mine is in my avatar, and my sig link.... :P
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