wjag Posted March 31, 2011 Author Report Posted March 31, 2011 DAY 3 ======= NYR vs NYI (with the NYR loss last night, this now becomes an interesting game.) PIT vs TAM NYI have a big say in the playoffs playing both NYR and CAR in next two at home. They beat either of these teams and the playoff aspirations of the loser will be dented.
wjag Posted April 1, 2011 Author Report Posted April 1, 2011 Day 4 ====== PHL vs NJ Not a top tier game. Only local interest is that PHL finally catches WAS in games played. With PHL loss last night, number one conference seed is in play. A PHL win tonight pushes it back to three with four to play. If PHL loses, WAS will be energized to take over the top spot from the visiting Sabres on Saturday. Go PHL!!!!!
wjag Posted April 2, 2011 Author Report Posted April 2, 2011 Day 5 ===== This is a big one: Buf vs Was (6th spot vs 1st spot) Car vs NYI (Car needs both points to setup showdown tomorrow in Hartford) Mon vs NJD (Can Montreal stop their free fall or will NJD keep hope alive) Beantown took down Atlanta after Atanta took Beano.. Beantown has eye on top spot too, but second looks possible.
wjag Posted April 3, 2011 Author Report Posted April 3, 2011 And Finally DAY 6 ======= NYR vs PHL (Philly dropped out of number 1 seed last night. Need a point to get it back. Carolina, Buffalo and Toronto need Philly while Rangers need to hold a spot) BUF vs CAR ('nuff said)
Gramps Posted April 4, 2011 Report Posted April 4, 2011 By my calcs, we win/lose in OT Tuesday and the Leafs can't catch us. If the Canes lose in regulation or OT, we are also in if we win Tuesday ... someone please correct me if my math is wrong. Not sure about the tiebreakers, but I think we hold the upper hand on Carolina, but the Leafs are up on us.
spndnchz Posted April 4, 2011 Report Posted April 4, 2011 From GR http://www.wgr550.com/pages/9544243.php?contentType=4&contentId=7935184 The Sabres magic number (Points gained by Sabres or lost by Canes) to make the playoffs is 4 - and that's to make sure they stay up on Carolina. HOWEVER...Sabres magic number to beat out the Rangers is 6 - and if the Rangers lose in REGULATION tonight, that number drops to 3...because the Sabres would clinch the tiebreaker on the Rangers and the MAX points the Rangers could get would be 93. The Sabres would no longer need 94 to beat out the Rangers...only 93. That's only if the Rangers lose in regulation. If the Rangers lose in overtime or a shootout...the magic number would drop from 6 to 4 on the Rangers. 1 for the lost point, and 1 for the lost ability to win the ROW stat. An overtime/shootout loss means the magic number is for on BOTH Carolina and the Rangers. The Sabres can clinch a playoff spot as early as Wednesday... Any win over Tampa, and any Carolina loss to Detroit would end the race. Also... Any regulation win by Buffalo, OR shootout win by Carolina means that the Sabres would clinch the tiebreaker over Carolina. Comes down to ROW (Sabres would clinch a tie on that), then goes to H2H (It's tied there too), and then to goal differential which the Sabres have a HUGE lead in.
Taro T Posted April 4, 2011 Report Posted April 4, 2011 By my calcs, we win/lose in OT Tuesday and the Leafs can't catch us. If the Canes lose in regulation or OT, we are also in if we win Tuesday ... someone please correct me if my math is wrong. Not sure about the tiebreakers, but I think we hold the upper hand on Carolina, but the Leafs are up on us. The Loafs would have the tiebreaker unless 1 (or more) of their wins came in a SO. In that case the Sabres have the edge. As has been mentioned in other threads, the Sabres have the tiebreaker on the Canes unless the Canes win out and the Sabres don't get a regulation or OT win amongst their 3 points. A single point would put the Sabres out of reach of the Loafs. Or a SO victory by the Loafs puts the Sabres out of reach. 4 points puts the Sabres out of reach of the Canes. 3 points w/ 2 of those being a regulation win / OT win gives the Sabres the edge. Sabres have tiebreaker on Strangers (in MOST scenarios). 56 points and they've clinched over the Strangers. EDIT: Neglected possibility that Sabres could get 4 or 5 more points w/out a R/OT win. :doh: 8 points in the Sabres favor out of the 12 remaining available to them and Moe-ray-all puts Buffalo ahead of the Habs. The Habs have the tiebreaker, so 7 of 12 doesn't get it done.
Derrico Posted April 4, 2011 Report Posted April 4, 2011 Didn't want to start a new thread on this so I'll add it here. The remaining schedules for each team in contention: Montreal: Tues vs. Chicago; Thurs @ Ottawa; Sat @ Toronto Buffalo: Tues vs. Tampa Bay; Fri vs. Philly; Sat @ Columbus NYR: Mon vs. Boston; Thurs vs. Atlanta; Sat vs. New Jersey Carolina: Wed vs. Detroit; Fri @ Atlanta; Sat vs. Tampa Bay Toronto: Tues vs. Washington; Wed @ New Jersey; Sat vs. Montreal Definetly hoping for a win by Boston tonight and Detroit on Wednesday!
eball Posted April 4, 2011 Report Posted April 4, 2011 From this fantastic site: MTL magic number on BUF = 5 BUF magic number on NYR = 6 BUF magic number on CAR = 4
EZBills7 Posted April 4, 2011 Report Posted April 4, 2011 I'm a stats geek, so other stats geeks feel free to correct this if I've missed something. The simplest way for the Sabres to get in is to win one game AND either pick up one additional point, or have the Canes lose one game (it could be in OT). Magic Number in points (Sabres need to win ONE of these to make the playoffs): BUF 8 MON 5 (Habs have tiebreaker) BUF 5 NYR 8 (Sabres have tiebreaker) BUF 4* CAR 10 (Sabres will likely have the tiebreaker, as explained below, and their number would drop by an additional one more if/when they secure the tiebreaker) Every time the Sabres win, their number in each pair drops by 2. If they lose in OT or a shootout, the number for each team drops by 1. If the Sabres lose in regulation, the other team's number in each pair drops by 2. The opposite is true for when the other teams play. When a team gets to zero, that team is guaranteed to finish ahead of the other team. For the Sabres, once one of their numbers above gets to zero, they are in the playoffs. For tiebreakers, the Leafs cannot beat the Sabres. The best they can do is tie, and the first two tiebreakers would be even (non-SO wins and head-to-head points), but the Sabres would win on goal differential. The Sabres will have the edge over the Rangers in any tie. The Sabres would beat the Canes in almost any tie, based on either non-SO wins, or goal differential (since they picked up 5 points each head to head). The only scenario where the Canes would have the tiebreaker is if the Canes go 3-0-0 and Buffalo picks up 3 OT or SO losses. So, a Canes loss, a Sabres win, or a Sabres regulation loss would give the Sabres the tiebreaker. The Habs would beat the Sabres based on non-SO wins.
BeachedNLA Posted April 4, 2011 Report Posted April 4, 2011 Understand all the scenarios being presented (for the most part), but with all of the nail-biting from the past weekend, AND the fact that Sabres have had the toughest ending schedule (IMO), what I DON'T want to see is a loss on Tuesday (regulation), coupled with a Carolina win over Detroit, which takes weekend down to 1-point (despite us owning most of the tie-breakers)... So just keep up the desperate play, Sabres!! ("aim high"..., Montreal is very catch-able, although their schedule of last 3 games looks tamest). JUST WIN BABY!! GO SABRES!! (& stay playoff ready..., we'll be a tough out, IMO, whomever we play in Round One, and hopefully beyond!).
Taro T Posted April 4, 2011 Report Posted April 4, 2011 I'm a stats geek, so other stats geeks feel free to correct this if I've missed something. The simplest way for the Sabres to get in is to win one game AND either pick up one additional point, or have the Canes lose one game (it could be in OT). Magic Number in points (Sabres need to win ONE of these to make the playoffs): BUF 8 MON 5 (Habs have tiebreaker) BUF 5 NYR 8 (Sabres have tiebreaker) BUF 4* CAR 10 (Sabres will likely have the tiebreaker, as explained below, and their number would drop by an additional one more if/when they secure the tiebreaker) Every time the Sabres win, their number in each pair drops by 2. If they lose in OT or a shootout, the number for each team drops by 1. If the Sabres lose in regulation, the other team's number in each pair drops by 2. The opposite is true for when the other teams play. When a team gets to zero, that team is guaranteed to finish ahead of the other team. For the Sabres, once one of their numbers above gets to zero, they are in the playoffs. For tiebreakers, the Leafs cannot beat the Sabres. The best they can do is tie, and the first two tiebreakers would be even (non-SO wins and head-to-head points), but the Sabres would win on goal differential. The Sabres will have the edge over the Rangers in any tie. The Sabres would beat the Canes in almost any tie, based on either non-SO wins, or goal differential (since they picked up 5 points each head to head). The only scenario where the Canes would have the tiebreaker is if the Canes go 3-0-0 and Buffalo picks up 3 OT or SO losses. So, a Canes loss, a Sabres win, or a Sabres regulation loss would give the Sabres the tiebreaker. The Habs would beat the Sabres based on non-SO wins. 1 Buffalo win was in SO, other games ended in regulation; so TO got 7 points, Buffalo only 6. If all 3 TO wins in games 80-82 come before SO AND Buffalo loses games 80-82 in regulation; TO gets ahead on 2nd tiebreaker.
EZBills7 Posted April 4, 2011 Report Posted April 4, 2011 I totally agree. No reason they can't take at least 2 of 3 games here to keep their momentum. One note is that the Leafs could conceivably finish ahead of Buffalo if there were one or more teams tied with both of them, but one Sabres point, or one Leafs' lost point, would eliminate that possibility.
EZBills7 Posted April 4, 2011 Report Posted April 4, 2011 1 Buffalo win was in SO, other games ended in regulation; so TO got 7 points, Buffalo only 6. If all 3 TO wins in games 80-82 come before SO AND Buffalo loses games 80-82 in regulation; TO gets ahead on 2nd tiebreaker. Good call - thanks. One Sabres point will take the Leafs out as far as the Sabres are concerned.
EZBills7 Posted April 4, 2011 Report Posted April 4, 2011 1 Buffalo win was in SO, other games ended in regulation; so TO got 7 points, Buffalo only 6. If all 3 TO wins in games 80-82 come before SO AND Buffalo loses games 80-82 in regulation; TO gets ahead on 2nd tiebreaker. Magic Number in points (Sabres need to win TWO of these to make the playoffs): BUF 8 MON 5 (Habs have tiebreaker) BUF 5 NYR 8 (Sabres have tiebreaker) BUF 4* CAR 10 (Sabres will likely have the tiebreaker, as explained below, and their number would drop by an additional one more if/when they secure the tiebreaker) BUF 1 TOR 12
spndnchz Posted April 4, 2011 Report Posted April 4, 2011 By my calcs, we win/lose in OT Tuesday and the Leafs can't catch us. If the Canes lose in regulation or OT, we are also in if we win Tuesday ... someone please correct me if my math is wrong. Not sure about the tiebreakers, but I think we hold the upper hand on Carolina, but the Leafs are up on us. Leafs are dun if they lose tomorrow to the Caps. Only thing that sucks about rooting for Bruins win (besides rooting for Bruins) is that a Bruins win helps Carolina.
spndnchz Posted April 4, 2011 Report Posted April 4, 2011 Who has the most points in the league since Feb 22? Buffalo 30 Capitals 29 Canucks 28 :thumbsup:
Eleven Posted April 4, 2011 Report Posted April 4, 2011 Someone just explain to me what is going on in Taro's sig. As for magic numbers, I'll just hope the Sabres win two out of three and then none of the rest of it will matter.
spndnchz Posted April 4, 2011 Report Posted April 4, 2011 Someone just explain to me what is going on in Taro's sig. As for magic numbers, I'll just hope the Sabres win two out of three and then none of the rest of it will matter. His bet with DeLuca I believe.
eball Posted April 4, 2011 Report Posted April 4, 2011 Leafs are dun if they lose tomorrow to the Caps. Only thing that sucks about rooting for Bruins win (besides rooting for Bruins) is that a Bruins win helps Carolina. Call me crazy, but I'd much rather see the Canes get the 8th seed than the Rags. I can't stand the hype NYC teams get, regardless of the sport. Plus, since I'm in NC, I can go buy a sweater of whatever team the Canes would play and go eat some more babies.
wjag Posted April 4, 2011 Author Report Posted April 4, 2011 Call me crazy, but I'd much rather see the Canes get the 8th seed than the Rags. I can't stand the hype NYC teams get, regardless of the sport. Plus, since I'm in NC, I can go buy a sweater of whatever team the Canes would play and go eat some more babies. You are not crazy. I won't root for it, but I won't object to Carolina making the Elite 8. I think Carolina would give the top seeds fits. I think the 7th and 8th place seeds are going to be tough out for Washington/Philly/Boston? My concern with NYR is that they are seriously struggling to score goals. I should caveat that by saying, okay to Carolina as long as they are the lower seed to Buffalo.
EZBills7 Posted April 4, 2011 Report Posted April 4, 2011 You are not crazy. I won't root for it, but I won't object to Carolina making the Elite 8. I think Carolina would give the top seeds fits. I think the 7th and 8th place seeds are going to be tough out for Washington/Philly/Boston? My concern with NYR is that they are seriously struggling to score goals. I should caveat that by saying, okay to Carolina as long as they are the lower seed to Buffalo. I say we'd want Carolina in as the other team because, if they pulled a first round upset, the Sabres would avoid a top 2 seed in the 2nd round if they could win in the first. I don't see the Rangers getting out of the first round.
Eleven Posted April 4, 2011 Report Posted April 4, 2011 As I put in the other thread, I don't want to see Carolina-Buffalo in the third round. So I don't want them in. But that's the only reason.
Derrico Posted April 4, 2011 Report Posted April 4, 2011 I say we'd want Carolina in as the other team because, if they pulled a first round upset, the Sabres would avoid a top 2 seed in the 2nd round if they could win in the first. I don't see the Rangers getting out of the first round. I'd disagree. Diving and playing like pansies doesn't translate well in the playoffs. But having probably the best goaltender in the world on your side would give a top team trouble. Philly's goaltending is suspect. I could see them letting in an early goal and taking penalties out of frustration late in the game because Lundqvist just simply shuts the door.
eball Posted April 4, 2011 Report Posted April 4, 2011 I'd disagree. Diving and playing like pansies doesn't translate well in the playoffs. But having probably the best goaltender in the world on your side would give a top team trouble. Philly's goaltending is suspect. I could see them letting in an early goal and taking penalties out of frustration late in the game because Lundqvist just simply shuts the door. Lundqvist is the principal reason I don't want the Rags in the playoffs. Goaltending is the great equalizer. Aside from the Rags and Bruins, there isn't another team in the East with a goaltender you "fear" -- and that includes Buffalo, coincidentally.
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