Game Discussion Thread

[LabattBlue]

is stafford expendable since he is streaky at best?

Yes he is expendable. It is no problem to replace a 25 year old power forward(RFA) with 26 goals in 53 games. Just call up some chump from the AHL and you are all set.

[Weave]

This is total bs.

 

 

Please expand.

[LGR4GM]

Yes he is expendable. It is no problem to replace a 25 year old power forward(RFA) with 26 goals in 53 games. Just call up some chump from the AHL and you are all set.

... so is that sarcasm? you know I could start a "is stafford expendable" thread for you :rolleyes: ...And I think even with his improved defensive play he is expendable. Sabres fans (like the organization) love to just hold onto and hold onto and hold onto a guy because well he showed signs during this three week period that if you pass him the puck in front of the net he can bury it. I like staffy but he has 12 of his 26 goals in 4 games... so when hes hot hes super hot and when hes cold he gets an assist here or there. He isnt worth big bucks until he is consistent. So to be clear, I am in favor of stafford being traded but also in favor of him being signed to something under 3.25mil. IDK, what do the rest of the people think?

 

(Staffords goals per game when you delete the 4 hat tricks and the 4 games = 0.292 versus 0.5 gpg if you count everything just some food for thought)

[korab rules]

This is total bs.

 

because of anything in particular or just because you say so?

 

'Ruff said.

[Wraith]

Please expand.

Glad you asked.

 

The original post claims that both Pominville and especially Vanek have been struggling lately because of Connolly.

 

The short answer: Vanek's problem has not been that he hasn't been getting opportunities to score. The problem is he can't finish those opportunities. In fact, one could easily argue that the scoring opportunities have been better than average the last few games. Connolly is at least partially responsible for that increase. A lot of those potential tap ins have been a direct result of a Connolly pass.

 

Blaming Connolly for Vanek's inability to finish is just stupid. There has been a marked improvement in Connolly's offensive zone play in the month of March, especially his passing. Vanek's problems start and end in his own mind right now.

 

Pominville has two points in the last four games while on Connolly's wing. He had two points in the four directly prior. I don't see a change in play at all. In fact I'd say he's been very solid. The two points he does have are a direct result of Connolly.

 

The long answer is for me to go through each of the last four games and point out each good opportunity Vanek had and how he screwed them up. We can do that if necessary.

[JujuFish]

Anyone else notice the little streak we have going? Three game "unbeaten" streak. God bless the NHL's terminology!

I'll admit that I think less of writers who use this terminology. Vogl is particularly bad about it.

[Buffalo Wings]

You just need to know how to use your hockey stick.

Fixed.

[Stoner]

I'll admit that I think less of writers who use this terminology. Vogl is particularly bad about it.

 

Because he writes for the Sabres. Harrington writes for us and never would use that term.

[wjag]

Because he writes for the Sabres. Harrington writes for us and never would use that term.

You have a serious man crush on Harrington. Is he your uncle?

[Stoner]

You have a serious man crush on Harrington. Is he your uncle?

 

There's something about him. He's a big boy. The glasses, the hair slicked back, those eyes. His long, strong pen so much mightier than the swords.

 

You got me.

[Weave]

Glad you asked.

 

The original post claims that both Pominville and especially Vanek have been struggling lately because of Connolly.

 

The short answer: Vanek's problem has not been that he hasn't been getting opportunities to score. The problem is he can't finish those opportunities. In fact, one could easily argue that the scoring opportunities have been better than average the last few games. Connolly is at least partially responsible for that increase. A lot of those potential tap ins have been a direct result of a Connolly pass.

 

Blaming Connolly for Vanek's inability to finish is just stupid. There has been a marked improvement in Connolly's offensive zone play in the month of March, especially his passing. Vanek's problems start and end in his own mind right now.

 

Pominville has two points in the last four games while on Connolly's wing. He had two points in the four directly prior. I don't see a change in play at all. In fact I'd say he's been very solid. The two points he does have are a direct result of Connolly.

 

Much more insightful than, "this is total bs".

 

The long answer is for me to go through each of the last four games and point out each good opportunity Vanek had and how he screwed them up. We can do that if necessary.

 

If you feel compelled I won't stop you. :D

[nfreeman]

One thing that seems to have gone unnoticed about Stafford lately is that suddenly he's out there on the PK from time to time. There has to have been a big change in his game to be getting that ice time because at this time last year, he didn't have a clue what defense was.

Good call. I've noticed this as well.

 

... so is that sarcasm? you know I could start a "is stafford expendable" thread for you :rolleyes: ...And I think even with his improved defensive play he is expendable. Sabres fans (like the organization) love to just hold onto and hold onto and hold onto a guy because well he showed signs during this three week period that if you pass him the puck in front of the net he can bury it. I like staffy but he has 12 of his 26 goals in 4 games... so when hes hot hes super hot and when hes cold he gets an assist here or there. He isnt worth big bucks until he is consistent. So to be clear, I am in favor of stafford being traded but also in favor of him being signed to something under 3.25mil. IDK, what do the rest of the people think?

 

(Staffords goals per game when you delete the 4 hat tricks and the 4 games = 0.292 versus 0.5 gpg if you count everything just some food for thought)

You make an important point here -- i.e. it's not just that if a really good center can be had in trade, Stafford might be the guy the Sabres should trade, but also that the Sabres need to think about how much they're willing to pay to re-sign Stafford. Watching him recently I feel like there is NFW I would want to give him, say, $4MM x 4 years.

 

Glad you asked.

 

The original post claims that both Pominville and especially Vanek have been struggling lately because of Connolly.

 

The short answer: Vanek's problem has not been that he hasn't been getting opportunities to score. The problem is he can't finish those opportunities. In fact, one could easily argue that the scoring opportunities have been better than average the last few games. Connolly is at least partially responsible for that increase. A lot of those potential tap ins have been a direct result of a Connolly pass.

 

Blaming Connolly for Vanek's inability to finish is just stupid. There has been a marked improvement in Connolly's offensive zone play in the month of March, especially his passing. Vanek's problems start and end in his own mind right now.

 

Pominville has two points in the last four games while on Connolly's wing. He had two points in the four directly prior. I don't see a change in play at all. In fact I'd say he's been very solid. The two points he does have are a direct result of Connolly.

 

The long answer is for me to go through each of the last four games and point out each good opportunity Vanek had and how he screwed them up. We can do that if necessary.

I agree that Vanek's poor production is Vanek's fault, not TC's, but I also think that Vanek and TC have consistently failed to display any chemistry or productivity whenever they've been on the same line -- going back to last season as well.

 

I'd much rather see Hecht centering Vanek and Pommer. That line produced quite well for a stretch earlier this year.

[Wraith]

Anybody think Stafford is still playing with that hamstring injury? He's not moving nearly as well as he normally he does.

[Derrico]

Good call. I've noticed this as well.

 

 

You make an important point here -- i.e. it's not just that if a really good center can be had in trade, Stafford might be the guy the Sabres should trade, but also that the Sabres need to think about how much they're willing to pay to re-sign Stafford. Watching him recently I feel like there is NFW I would want to give him, say, $4MM x 4 years.

 

 

I agree that Vanek's poor production is Vanek's fault, not TC's, but I also think that Vanek and TC have consistently failed to display any chemistry or productivity whenever they've been on the same line -- going back to last season as well.

 

I'd much rather see Hecht centering Vanek and Pommer. That line produced quite well for a stretch earlier this year.

 

I really can't wait for the summer because anytime you're debating whether Hecht or TC is your number 1 centre, things are not good.....I hope we can sign Stafford to a reasonable 3 or 4 year contract and then definetly use him as trade bait. The way Gerbe has been playing we already have: Vanek, Ennis, Pommers, Stafford, Boyes and Roy for sure in the top six. Plus Gerbe is now knocking on the door (although I liked his play on the third line). I say trade Stafford and possibly a prospect for a legitimate centre. Next year we'll have:

 

Vanek - x - Boyes

Ennis - Roy - Pommers

 

as our two top forward lines.

[X. Benedict]

Anybody think Stafford is still playing with that hamstring injury? He's not moving nearly as well as he normally he does.

I think so. He's not moving his feet well. He looks to be bearing down the best he can, but when its not there its not there.

[Weave]

 

I'd much rather see Hecht centering Vanek and Pommer. That line produced quite well for a stretch earlier this year.

 

Just for the sake of discussion, what do you want to see happen when Hecht returns? Is Mancari the obvious man out? Does Connolly move from C to RW in Mancari's spot? Lindy thought Gerbe - Goose- Mancari was their best line last night. Does Lindy break that up? Can anyone see Connolly on the 4th line? And which 4th liner goes into the press box? Or does Connolly get put with Ennis and Staff? And then Boyes goes where?

[wjag]

There's something about him. He's a big boy. The glasses, the hair slicked back, those eyes. His long, strong pen so much mightier than the swords.

 

You got me.

 

:lol:

[shrader]

Just for the sake of discussion, what do you want to see happen when Hecht returns? Is Mancari the obvious man out? Does Connolly move from C to RW in Mancari's spot? Lindy thought Gerbe - Goose- Mancari was their best line last night. Does Lindy break that up? Can anyone see Connolly on the 4th line? And which 4th liner goes into the press box? Or does Connolly get put with Ennis and Staff? And then Boyes goes where?

 

One thing to keep in mind is that Mancari's up on an emergency recall (not 100% sure on this one, but it should be the case), so if we ever actually get back to 13 healthy forwards, he goes back to Portland without having to clear waivers. They can burn a call up and keep him here, but at that point, he's here to stay. I'm not so sure they do that.

[korab rules]

Glad you asked.

 

The original post claims that both Pominville and especially Vanek have been struggling lately because of Connolly.

 

The short answer: Vanek's problem has not been that he hasn't been getting opportunities to score. The problem is he can't finish those opportunities. In fact, one could easily argue that the scoring opportunities have been better than average the last few games. Connolly is at least partially responsible for that increase. A lot of those potential tap ins have been a direct result of a Connolly pass.

 

Blaming Connolly for Vanek's inability to finish is just stupid. There has been a marked improvement in Connolly's offensive zone play in the month of March, especially his passing. Vanek's problem start and end in his own mind right now.

 

Pominville has two points in the last four games while on Connolly's wing. He had two points in the four directly prior. I don't see a change in play at all. In fact I'd say he's been very solid. The two points he does have are a direct result of Connolly.

 

The long answer is for me to go through each of the last four games and point out each good opportunity Vanek had and how he screwed them up. We can do that if necessary.

 

You misread my post - I specifically acknowledge that Vanek has had chances he has not finished. My point is that these chances are more self created than due to Connolly being his center. My point though, is that the players on a line with TC go into slumps - having lots of chances and not finishing them supports my theory, not the other way around.

 

Lets look at March. The Sabres have played 11 games in March so far. Hecht has played in 4 of them - 3/1, 3/3, 3/12 and 3/13. In those 4 games, TV scored one goal and 2 assists. In the other 7 games, TV has one goal and six assists. 2 of those assists are on the power play, though.

 

Want to look at the individual points? His goal in the 3/13 game was from goose and weber. His goal in the 3/10 game was from Tyler 1 and Tyler 2. His assist that game was on a goal scored by TC - Vanek had the primary assist. No points in the 3/1 or 3/3 game. He had two assists in the 3/5 game - one on a goal by Pominiville with Boyes getting the other assist, the other on a goal by Staff with Ennis getting the other assist, bothe even strength. He had an assist in the 3/6 game on a goal by Pominville with Connolly getting the other asist at even strength. In the 3/12 loss at Toronto TV assisted on Hecht's goal. On 3/15 the sabres were shut out by Carolina. On the 3/19 8-2 blowout of Atlanta, our leading point man was only able to muster one assist with TC as his center - a PP goal by TC with Pominville getting the primary assist. It was the 8th goal, by the way. In the 3/20 OTL to Nashville Vanek assisted on TC's goal. In last night's win, Vanek was pointless.

 

So - of Vanek's 10 points in March in 11 games, Vanek has been completely shut out in 3 games in which Hecht did not play, TC played no role in either goal Vanek scored, and Vanek has 4 assists on goals in which TC either scored or got the other assist, one of which was a power play goal by TC - the 8th goal in an 8-2 blowout.

 

Pominville has 7 points in March. TC has 3 goals and five assists in March - 2 goals were set up by TV, TC assisted on zero goals by TV. - you can do the breakdown to see where those points came from

 

Vanek is our best offensive player - he gets paid 7 mill to score goals, not assist on TC's 10th and 11th goals of the season. TC is a leach - he drags people down to his level - TV's production has dropped while playing with TC - the overall numbers are similar, but they are gained while playing away from TC. Any analysis more exhaustive will require game film and an inordinate amount of time.

[Wraith]

You misread my post - I specifically acknowledge that Vanek has had chances he has not finished. My point is that these chances are more self created than due to Connolly being his center. My point though, is that the players on a line with TC go into slumps - having lots of chances and not finishing them supports my theory, not the other way around.

First of all, I did not misread your post. A cursory acknowledgement of those chances doesn't mean you've successfully integrated them into a logical argument later on.

 

Secondly, you're wrong about Vanek's opportunities being self-created. Connolly sprung Vanek on both of his break-aways Sunday night, for example. Many of those whiffed one-timers and tap-ins have also come on good passes from Connolly.

 

Thirdly, the bolded part doesn't make sense. Connolly has been and always will be a setup man. His role is to create opportunities for the wingers. You just acknowledged that Vanek has had great opportunities that he hasn't finished on. How is Vanek's inability to finish his great chances caused by Connolly? TC has been on the ice for most of Vanek's missed opportunities. Are you honestly trying to say that Connolly has nothing to do with creating those chances but everything to do with why they failed? How? Bad mojo? Karma? Any objective observer would see the contradiction in your logic.

[korab rules]

First of all, I did not misread your post. A cursory acknowledgement of those chances doesn't mean you've successfully integrated them into a logical argument later on.

 

Secondly, you're wrong about Vanek's opportunities being self-created. Connolly sprung Vanek on both of his break-aways Sunday night, for example. Many of those whiffed one-timers and tap-ins have also come on good passes from Connolly.

 

Thirdly, the bolded part doesn't make sense. Connolly has been and always will be a setup man. His role is to create opportunities for the wingers. You just acknowledged that Vanek has had great opportunities that he hasn't finished on. How is Vanek's inability to finish his great chances caused by Connolly? TC has been on the ice for most of Vanek's missed opportunities. Are you honestly trying to say that Connolly has nothing to do with creating those chances but everything to do with why they failed? How? Bad mojo? Karma? Any objective observer would see the contradiction in your logic.

 

I give you game by game specifics, you throw out sweeping generalizations and your belief disguised as fact - you have to do better than that. And yes, TC is a jinx. He is Grey Cloud.

[Derrico]

I give you game by game specifics, you throw out sweeping generalizations and your belief disguised as fact - you have to do better than that. And yes, TC is a jinx. He is Grey Cloud.

 

It's snowing out in mid to late March! It must be the Tin Man's doing..... :o

[Wraith]

I give you game by game specifics, you throw out sweeping generalizations and your belief disguised as fact - you have to do better than that. And yes, TC is a jinx. He is Grey Cloud.

Please, pot meet kettle. Intermingled with your opinion and sweeping generalizations are a few hand picked pieces of data with no context.

 

Let's break this down the correct way. You claim Vanek's production is down since he started playing with Connolly. Hecht has missed seven games this month. Boyes was Vanek's center for the first three, Connolly for the last four. Let's compare those last four to the entire season:

 

Goals/Game (Last 4): 0.00 goals/game

Goals/Game (Entire Season): 0.35 goals/game

 

No shocker there. You and I have both acknowledged his lack of finish.

 

Shots/Game (Last 4): 3.25 shots/game

Shots/Game (Entire Season): 2.93 shots/game

 

So his shots are actually up 11% playing with Connolly. This is as close as we're going to come to data for scoring opportunities. You've already admitted alot of these shots were high percentage chances that he failed to convert on.

 

Assists/Game (Last 4): 0.50 assists/game

Assists/Game (Entire Season): 0.51 assists/game

 

His assists rate is almost exactly the same with Connolly as it is with everyone else. Remarkable.

 

Pointless Game % (Last 4): 50% (2/4)

Pointless Game % (Entire Season): 50% (31/72)

 

Also exactly the same.

 

So basically, all you've got is that TC is a jinx. Good luck with that.

 

And yes, TC is a jinx. He is Grey Cloud.

I appreciate you admitting you're wrong.

[nfreeman]

Just for the sake of discussion, what do you want to see happen when Hecht returns? Is Mancari the obvious man out? Does Connolly move from C to RW in Mancari's spot? Lindy thought Gerbe - Goose- Mancari was their best line last night. Does Lindy break that up? Can anyone see Connolly on the 4th line? And which 4th liner goes into the press box? Or does Connolly get put with Ennis and Staff? And then Boyes goes where?

 

Good question.

 

This is what I'd like to see:

 

Hecht-Vanek-Pommer

Boyes-Ennis-Stafford/TC

Gaustad-Gerbe-Mancari

TC/Stafford-McCormick-Grier

 

press box: Niedermayer

 

 

...with TC and Stafford alternating spots depending on who's playing better.

 

But you identified the tricky issues perfectly. It is hard to see either TC or Stafford on that 4th line. OTOH, other than Ennis, the "top 6" has been pretty weak lately, so I wouldn't feel like they were making a huge mistake by dropping any of them to the 4th line.

[korab rules]

Please, pot meet kettle. Intermingled with your opinion and sweeping generalizations are a few hand picked pieces of data with no context.

 

Let's break this down the correct way. You claim Vanek's production is down since he started playing with Connolly. Hecht has missed seven games this month. Boyes was Vanek's center for the first three, Connolly for the last four. Let's compare those last four to the entire season:

 

Goals/Game (Last 4): 0.00 goals/game

Goals/Game (Entire Season): 0.35 goals/game

 

No shocker there. You and I have both acknowledged his lack of finish.

 

Shots/Game (Last 4): 3.25 shots/game

Shots/Game (Entire Season): 2.93 shots/game

 

So his shots are actually up 11% playing with Connolly. This is as close as we're going to come to data for scoring opportunities. You've already admitted alot of these shots were high percentage chances that he failed to convert on.

 

Assists/Game (Last 4): 0.50 assists/game

Assists/Game (Entire Season): 0.51 assists/game

 

His assists rate is almost exactly the same with Connolly as it is with everyone else. Remarkable.

 

Pointless Game % (Last 4): 50% (2/4)

Pointless Game % (Entire Season): 50% (31/72)

 

Also exactly the same.

 

So basically, all you've got is that TC is a jinx. Good luck with that.

 

I appreciate you admitting you're wrong.

 

Your condescending tone is as ill advised as the stats you rely on to support your claim.

 

Season long stats really don't inform the discussion. Over the course of the season TV has played with any number of centers, including McCormack (shudder) and Roy. Season long stats also include PP points which really don't involve the play of a traditional center. But if season long stats is what you want to compare against the last four games, lets do so:

 

TV had 60 points in 68 games before the last four. That is .882 ppg.

 

In the last four games with Timmy as his center, he has .50 ppg. That is a statistically significant difference.

 

you look at shots per game? Over the last 4 games he has taken one more shot than his average. Big deal.

 

TC is a jinx, there is no doubt, but a .50 ppg average versus his season long .882 ppg game average is probably a slightly stronger argument.

 

But lets not forget about pommer, who is lucky enough to serve as TC's other wing. He has been playing at a .645 ppg clip. What happens when he gets blessed with TC as his center? He too drops to .50 ppg. Another statistically significant drop.

 

Another thing to consider? half of TV's points and ALL of Pommers points came in the same game - an 8-2 blowout of Atlanta!

 

TC drags down his linemates and the statistics prove it.