How Vulnerable are the Capitals

[Dave Dryden]

I live in Washington, and down here is seems like a foregone conclusion the Cup is the Capitals this year. But how big a threat are they?

 

First, the obvious. Likely President's Cup winner, and overwhelming offensive firepower. Clearly a great regular season team with tremendous skill players.

 

But will that make them a great playoff team? The Capitals have a dismal history of playoff failure-- a big monkey on their back. Their defense, while very good offensively, has little to scare you on the defensive side. Since February 1, the Caps have given up 70 goals in 21 games, or 3.33 GPG. Their offense compensates for this--but will that work in the playoffs? I mean, will they score so prolificly in playoff style hockey?

 

Finally, they are back to Jose Theodore as their main goalie. Can this guy really win a Cup?

 

I see the Caps as being quite vulnerable despite their awesome regular season. And the Penguins defense is not as stout as it was last year. Jersey is Jersey--thay have been weak in the playoffs for several years and need to get out of that funk. And with the exception of the "good" Ottawa--who can be very good at times, and very bad at others--the rest of the East is bad. Bottom line--is this thing wide open for the Sabres if they can get on a roll, and get a little luck? Seems like it to me.

[shrader]

Yeah, the defense and the goaltending is a major issue there. If they run into a hot goalie, they could be bounced quickly. I won't bother listing potential candidates, but I can see more than a few teams being capable of that.

[eball]

I posted this in a different thread, but here's where it belongs:

 

As good as Washington is offensively (and they're SCARY good), their fans should be just a tad nervous about the back end. And has anyone checked out their ST stats? Despite having a great PP, their PK ineptitude nearly wipes out that advantage.

 

What's that they usually say? Defense (and goaltending) wins championships?

 

I really like where our Sabres are sitting.

[TheMadCap]

I think they are potentially VERY vulnerable.

 

I do agree with that thier largest flaw may be having to rely on Jose Three-or-four. It seems like during thier really hot streak last month, it didn't matter if they gave up 4 goals a game, since they were scoring like madmen. Lately, they have looked terrible in the defensive zone, and have been losing games mainly because they give up too many goals in the 1st period. I defintely think that they can be had assuming you can slow down thier offensive output...

[Calvin]

I see the Caps as being quite vulnerable despite their awesome regular season. And the Penguins defense is not as stout as it was last year. Jersey is Jersey--thay have been weak in the playoffs for several years and need to get out of that funk. And with the exception of the "good" Ottawa--who can be very good at times, and very bad at others--the rest of the East is bad. Bottom line--is this thing wide open for the Sabres if they can get on a roll, and get a little luck? Seems like it to me.

I wouldn't be too hasty in dismissing the Devils - they have some proven leadership and an offense that could surprise a few people. Parise played well in the clutch at the Olympics and they have a certain Russian who seems to be able to turn it on at will.

 

The Pens are not the same team as last year but I still think they could be a nasty out. They could score their way out of trouble, and their depth players are more reliable than ours.

 

For brevity's sake let's assume the top four seeds make the next round - in which case it's us, the Caps, Pens & Devils. I'd much rather face wobbly Three-or-Four or a hobbled Varlamov (let's not forget that Varlie was actually very good last year's playoffs as a rookie)..

[nfreeman]

I'd be very surprised if they got upset in the 1st round, but a 2nd-round upset is quite possible. I hate to say it, because it means I don't see the Sabres getting to the 3rd round, but I kinda expect the Caps to be playing Pittsburgh in the EC finals. That series will be great and a pick-em, IMHO.

[Hirly5]

As mentioned above, they have weak goalie play. The other thing that has helped them out is they play in the Southeast Division. How many cupcake games do they get a year? I think if they played in any of the other Eastern divisions they wouldn't have as good record as they have but you play who is on your schedule. Could this hurt them in the playoffs as they are not battle tested? The playoffs seem to play alittle tighter and more physical than the regular season.

 

Also, there is the curse of the President's Trophy.

[Lethbridge Broncos]

I have attended about 10 Caps games this season. Here is the report:

 

They have:

 

1)

 

Great depth and Scoring on offense.

 

a)Their centers are super. The middle of the ice. Backstrom is a threat to score/assist every time on the ice. He is a top 10 forward in the National League. Morrision is a nice 4th line center. Steckel, a former 1st rounder, is a huge man who is a great defensive center and a top face off guy. Eric Belanger, who they got at the deadline is great on faceoffs and very savvy on offense. He has some real nice offense tools.

 

b)Wingers are super. OV is the best player in the League. Semin is the best pure scorer in the league - his shot is like Kurri 25 years ago. Chimera adds grit and size. Knuble does the same -- and he crashes the net. Fleischmann has become a terrific player. He was great in the Olympics -- and is very crafty. Gordon, Scott Walker and Matt Bradley add grit and hitting and a forecheck up front. Those three gusy will go the violent areas on the ice. The inspirational leader is Laich -- who is having a career year. He is a gritty fella and scores ugly goals.

 

2)

 

Defense is Better thAn You Think.

 

Miek Green is the modern day Paul Coffey. ANd he plays very well in playoff games. Corvo adds the fiber to this corps. He is a vet of playoff games and is clearly a top 4 guy on any team in the league. Erskine is a huge mean ###### who has played well -- and is very reliable. He like a better Joe Reekie. Poti is a good vet -- who is injury free. He still gets called for a lot of penalties. Carlson is their Myers. While not as big, he can skate and cover the ice really well. He is a future all star -- with little doubt. He was the darling of the American youth hockey program for the last 10 years. Morrissonn is a top defensive defenseman. Very sound and hits hard. He is experienced now and the Caps best shut down defender. He can skate with anyone. Lastly, they use Schult sometimes. He is a towering guy - but a panzie. Very soft down low. Like Mike Wilson (old Sabre defender panzie). This corps is pretty good. There offense is so fluid that they dont get a lot of support. But they will tighten up come playoff time. They have the right tonic IMO.

 

3)

 

Net Play

 

Jose has been GREAT. He is back to his playing days in Montreal when he was incredible. His son died at the start of the season and he has been focused this year and dedicated. The rookie sensation, Varlomov is an inigma. He was injured -- but his the future and a real talent. Jose is a vet and will be fine on the back line IMO. He has player very consistant this season and during the Caps win streak, he was JUST INCREEDIBLE. Remember, he was chased out of Colorado b/k he could not replace St. PAtrick. But Jose is very good when focused.

 

4)

 

Experience

Most of this young club was together when they won the CAlder award in the AHL. They guys, like Buffalo, are tight and familial. They have played in a couple of NHL playoff series now -- and are now ready.

 

5) Coaching

 

Bruce was most of these guys AHL coach when they won the Calder. He is a good coach who is logical and hides his teams weaknesses well. He is no worse coach than the other East teams have.

 

6) Verizon Center

This building is very hard to play in. very loud. THe Caps are almost impossible to beat there. Any teams going there in the playoff will hate it.

 

 

All in all, this a very seasoned and talented club. The depth and savvy across the board is there. There defense, IMO, is just fine. And come playoff time, when the ice room dry up, and the time and space is little, this club will be well suited on defense. And on offense, they will score at will on anyone. That PP in the playofff will be devastating.

[Taro T]

Yeah, the defense and the goaltending is a major issue there. If they run into a hot goalie, they could be bounced quickly. I won't bother listing potential candidates, but I can see more than a few teams being capable of that.

I see the 2nd round as their "gotcha" round. 3or4 doesn't put any fear into opponents. Their offense is clearly stacked, but I don't like the defensive side of their game at all. Not saying they will lose in the 2nd, but I could definitely see them losing to NJ or the Otters.

[LabattBlue]

I have attended about 10 Caps games this season. Here is the report:

 

Net Play

 

Jose has been GREAT. He is back to his playing days in Montreal when he was incredible. His son died at the start of the season and he has been focused this year and dedicated. The rookie sensation, Varlomov is an inigma. He was injured -- but his the future and a real talent. Jose is a vet and will be fine on the back line IMO. He has player very consistant this season and during the Caps win streak, he was JUST INCREEDIBLE. Remember, he was chased out of Colorado b/k he could not replace St. PAtrick. But Jose is very good when focused.

Theodore has been anything but GREAT. His GAA is among the worst in the league among goalies(2.87) and his save %(.908) isn't much better. As a team, the goaltending is at the bottom(along with Pittsburgh) in terms of teams that will make the playoffs. It may be easier said then done, but find a playoff opponent that can come up with a plan to slow down the offense and the Caps are going to fall hard.

[JujuFish]

Jose has been GREAT.

I didn't realize being 26th in save percentage and 35th in GAA was "GREAT".

[K-9]

I agree anything can (and does) happen in the playoffs but I get the distinct impression the Caps, since locking up everthing already in terms of playoff position, are just playing out the season before the real season starts. Of course there is inherent danger in that because I believe that in professional sports, and the playoffs in particular, teams are flirting with danger when they're in that "we can turn it on when we need to mode" as the Caps seem to be now. A lot of bad habits can creep into a team when playing like that. I just think they're too talented and will turn it on once the real season starts. Perhaps a loss against the 8th seed in game one will do the trick.

 

GO SABRES!!!

[Calvin]

I have attended about 10 Caps games this season. Here is the report:

 

Net Play

 

Jose has been GREAT. He is back to his playing days in Montreal when he was incredible. His son died at the start of the season and he has been focused this year and dedicated. The rookie sensation, Varlomov is an inigma. He was injured -- but his the future and a real talent. Jose is a vet and will be fine on the back line IMO. He has player very consistant this season and during the Caps win streak, he was JUST INCREEDIBLE. Remember, he was chased out of Colorado b/k he could not replace St. PAtrick. But Jose is very good when focused.

Dude.. now you went and did it. Evidently the 10 games you went to either had Varlie in net, or else the Caps scored more than Three-or-Four shipped.

 

The Caps are usually my pick to watch on CI when the Sabres are not playing, and their goaltending is as bad as the stats look.

 

At the beginning of the season I had picked up Varlie and Three-or-Four as a fantasy goalkeeping tandem and I am still paying for that!! About the only thing they kept me in the hunt for was in the 'W' column. I picked up Howard off the waiver wire halfway down the season and he turned my team around!

[Lethbridge Broncos]

One thing to remember is that the Caps play in a relatively soft division. They feast on "fugly" teams. But they were classy all season. once they had the division won -- they toyed with opponents. But they have won without OV in the lineup and they can come back from ALMOST any lead to tie or win.

 

Jose has been amazing. And he has played well in all of the big games against the big teams. I liken his role (and his subpar stats) to Grant Furh -- who backstopped many a CUP WIN. Grant was habitually over 3.4 in GAA and way under 900 in SAV %. Furh is in the hall of fame for playing for the Oil and then being a big save, at the right time, goalie.

 

 

Jose has jsut made the big save this season -- trust me. When he is focused, he is as good as any guy back there.

 

 

 

 

This club has the experience to advance. The east, outside of the Pens is weak. The premier players at theis posiion, OV and Green now have a lot o balance and support. This club will roll right along. Write it down.

 

 

BTW, goalie stats have changed over the years. Anythng under 3 for GPA and over 900 SAV % is good. you guys were too spoiled with Hasek's numbers

[Marvelo]

with Jose "Three-or Four"?

 

very vulnerable to a balanced quality team as we saw with Ottawa last night.

[Lethbridge Broncos]

The Sens are playing their playoff right now -- and barely won. The caps didnt even skate in that game -- and tied it late after being down several goals. The Caps will win the division and most likely the cup, write it down.

 

 

 

 

 

with Jose "Three-or Four"?

 

very vulnerable to a balanced quality team as we saw with Ottawa last night.

[NowDoYouBelieve]

The Sens are playing their playoff right now -- and barely won. The caps didnt even skate in that game -- and tied it late after being down several goals. The Caps will win the division and most likely the cup, write it down.

 

Well yeah, nobody's gonna argue with you on that one.

[Stoner]

Is it time to drag out the miserable playoff record of Presidents' Trophy winners and conference top seeds (and probably division winners too)? Miserable in terms of failing to win the Cup, I mean.

[JujuFish]

Anythng under 3 for GPA and over 900 SAV % is good.

In a word, no.

[BetweenThePipes00]

Jose has been amazing. And he has played well in all of the big games against the big teams. I liken his role (and his subpar stats) to Grant Furh -- who backstopped many a CUP WIN. Grant was habitually over 3.4 in GAA and way under 900 in SAV %. Furh is in the hall of fame for playing for the Oil and then being a big save, at the right time, goalie.

 

...

 

BTW, goalie stats have changed over the years. Anythng under 3 for GPA and over 900 SAV % is good. you guys were too spoiled with Hasek's numbers

 

Yes, they have changed over the years, which is why your comparison to Fuhr is laughable. When he was giving up 3.40 goals oper game, the league average was MUCH higher ... in other words, he was BETTER than most ... when he won the Vezina in 1988 and they won the Cup, the league GAA was 3.71. Fuhr was 3.41, impressive in that division on that run-and-gun team.

 

The league average now is 2.84 ... and Theodore is 2.87 ... so he is average at best. And as you also pointed out, his divison is hardly the late 1980's Smythe Division, which may as well have been four-on-four compared to today.

 

I am not saying it's impossible for them to win with him, but his career playoff numbers are very average, even when he was at his best in Montreal, and he is only 12 months removed from losing his job in the playoffs to a 20-year old. He is the biggest question mark on that team. If you think they are going to win, that's fine, but he hasn't been GREAT no matter how you slice it.

[Lethbridge Broncos]

The Red Wings recently won the Presidents Trophy and then the Cup -- a few years back...

 

 

 

Is it time to drag out the miserable playoff record of Presidents' Trophy winners and conference top seeds (and probably division winners too)? Miserable in terms of failing to win the Cup, I mean.

[Lethbridge Broncos]

In 2000-2001, the top GOALIES were:

 

1 Mike Dunham, G NSH 2.28 .923

2 Sean Burke, G PHO 2.27 . 922

3 Dominik Hasek, G BUF 2.11 .921

4 Roman Cechmanek, G PHI 2.01 .921

 

The Avs won the cup this season with patrick roy in net. About a dozen goalies had BETTER stats than Patrick Roy (gaa/ sav%) that season -- including the four listed above. Wonder where Dunham and Cechmanek do now? Me too. Cechmanek has a 2.01 GAA! That cup season, Roy was just super. He made every big save needed at the key time. St. Patrick WON the Conn Smyth for this cup.

 

 

Similarly, in 1992-93, when the Habs won the CUp, St. Patrick had the 14th best Save % and the 18th best GAA. Again, he won the CUP AND THE CONN SMYTH.

 

 

clearly, Patrick Roy is NOT Jose Theodore.

 

the point is that STATS mean little when you get into a tourney with 7 game series where a goalie can get hot. What matters is making big saves at the right time. Being dedicated and hungry. Jose has shown this-- and he plays on the best offensive team i have seen since the 1985-86 oil team.

[Stoner]

Wouldn't it be great if someone devised a more useful way of measuring goals-against average, so we can get a better idea of who the clutch goaltenders are. Allow a goal in a tied third period, it's weighted more than allowing a goal in a tied first period, which is weighted more than allowing a late goal when your team is up by more than two goals. And so on. What about weighing "big" games differently? What about weighing scoring chances differently?

 

Shouldn't be that complicated. Carp, I expect to see something on my desk in the morning.

[NowDoYouBelieve]

Wouldn't it be great if someone devised a more useful way of measuring goals-against average, so we can get a better idea of who the clutch goaltenders are. Allow a goal in a tied third period, it's weighted more than allowing a goal in a tied first period, which is weighted more than allowing a late goal when your team is up by more than two goals. And so on. What about weighing "big" games differently? What about weighing scoring chances differently?

 

Shouldn't be that complicated. Carp, I expect to see something on my desk in the morning.

 

I like it. I'd hazard to guess that some statistics geek out there HAS formulated something like this, even if it's not widely published or recognized.