Magic Number

[ntjacks79]

Six Points. Sabres have to finish 3-4-0 (or get 6 points) if Ottawa goes 6-0-0 to win the NorthEast.

[shrader]

Six Points. Sabres have to finish 3-4-0 (or get 6 points) if Ottawa goes 6-0-0 to win the NorthEast.

 

3-4-0

2-3-2

1-2-4

0-1-6

 

There are plenty of ways to get 6 points.

[spndnchz]

3-4-0

2-3-2

1-2-4

0-1-6

 

There are plenty of ways to get 6 points.

 

I think I'm playing those numbers.

[ntjacks79]

3-4-0

2-3-2

1-2-4

0-1-6

 

There are plenty of ways to get 6 points.

The easiest way is for Ottawa to lose 3 games, starting tonight in Washington. ;-). If that happens, the Sabres can rest everybody until playoffs. ;-).

[shrader]

The easiest way is for Ottawa to lose 3 games, starting tonight in Washington. ;-). If that happens, the Sabres can rest everybody until playoffs. ;-).

 

Not entirely true. Montreal can still finish tied with us, and if they do, they take the tie breaker.

[ntjacks79]

Not entirely true. Montreal can still finish tied with us, and if they do, they take the tie breaker.

Dude. You are seriously "grasping". Montreal 6-0-0 and Sabres 0-7-0? I think that speaks for itself as to why I didn't include that possibility. But it changes nothing. The Magic Number is still 6 points. The 1st point eliminates Montreal... the last 5, Ottawa.

[NowDoYouBelieve]

Dude. You are seriously "grasping". Montreal 6-0-0 and Sabres 0-7-0? I think that speaks for itself as to why I didn't include that possibility. But it changes nothing. The Magic Number is still 6 points. The 1st point eliminates Montreal... the last 5, Ottawa.

 

But if we achieve the Magic Number of 6 over Ottawa by Ottawa losing 3 games, that doesn't automatically clinch the division if we lose and Montreal wins. Therefore, shrader is correct in that the Magic Number to clinch is not technically 6.

[spndnchz]

We can't lose any games if we want to guarantee 2nd in the conference. Pens max right now is 107, ours 108.

 

Pens play : Tampa Bay, Washington, and Atlanta (twice) NY Islanders (twice)

[shrader]

But if we achieve the Magic Number of 6 over Ottawa by Ottawa losing 3 games, that doesn't automatically clinch the division if we lose and Montreal wins. Therefore, shrader is correct in that the Magic Number to clinch is not technically 6.

 

It depends on the definition of magic number. If the Sabres themselves gain 6 points, then yes, it is done. But when you start looking at the combination of points gained plus points lost by other teams, then you have to include Montreal. It doesn't matter how much of a stretch it is, it is still mathematically possible. Quite honestly, even the prospect of Ottawa catching us is a very big long shot, yet we're still talking about it.

[That Aud Smell]

Not entirely true. Montreal can still finish tied with us, and if they do, they take the tie breaker.

h-to-h? i would not have figured that. (then again, how could i forget the buzzkill of the home opener?) shows how much i've been paying attention. we should take them in 6 if we see them in the first round.

 

i can't lie: i'm grateful to see things shaping up such that we most likely won't see ott'wa in round 1.

[shrader]

h-to-h? i would not have figured that. (then again, how could i forget the buzzkill of the home opener?) shows how much i've been paying attention. we should take them in 6 if we see them in the first round.

 

i can't lie: i'm grateful to see things shaping up such that we most likely won't see ott'wa in round 1.

 

I'll take the Ottawa thing one step further for you. If we finish 2nd and they finish 6th, we can't play them at all until the conference finals.

 

Yeah, I have too much free time today.

 

edit: Oh, and the first tie breaker is always total wins, not head to head. If Montreal were to finish tied with Buffalo, they would have more wins.

[That Aud Smell]

I'll take the Ottawa thing one step further for you. If we finish 2nd and they finish 6th, we can't play them at all until the conference finals.

me likey.

 

Oh, and the first tie breaker is always total wins, not head to head. If Montreal were to finish tied with Buffalo, they would have more wins.

gotcha - thanks.

[shrader]

me likey.

 

And I missed one other possibility. 3 and 7 can't play each other until the conference finals either. So if you really want to avoid Ottawa as long as possible, a 2nd-6th or 3rd-7th finish makes a potential Buffalo-Ottawa matchup the least likely.

[ntjacks79]

We can't lose any games if we want to guarantee 2nd in the conference. Pens max right now is 107, ours 108.

 

Pens play : Tampa Bay, Washington, and Atlanta (twice) NY Islanders (twice)

Interesting. Sabres schedule is much harder than that. I don't really think that 2nd is a realistic possibility because of it. Just at Montreal, at Ottawa, at New Jersey, at Boston alone makes it tough for the Sabres to think about moving up, even if wins in both home games are assumed.

[ntjacks79]

But if we achieve the Magic Number of 6 over Ottawa by Ottawa losing 3 games, that doesn't automatically clinch the division if we lose and Montreal wins. Therefore, shrader is correct in that the Magic Number to clinch is not technically 6.

HUH???!!!! The Magic Number IS six. It's six on Ottawa and one on Montreal. You always go by the higher number. Does anyone watch baseball on this board? ;-)

[Calvin]

Does anyone watch baseball on this board? ;-)

What's that? Is that a competitive sport like the spelling bee is?

[shrader]

HUH???!!!! The Magic Number IS six. It's six on Ottawa and one on Montreal. You always go by the higher number. Does anyone watch baseball on this board? ;-)

 

The 3rd team always complicates things. Even in baseball if a third team was in the picture, the talking heads wouldn't go to a so called magic number, quite simply because it is not absolute. You say the magic number is 6 points (and it is if we're talking about 6 points won), but I've already outlined a scenario for you where those the 6 points is met yet we don't win the division. It won't happen, but as long as it's possible, I'll mention it.

 

Anyway, isn't it a ###### of a lot nicer being able to argue over this instead of trying to scrape together what it would take to sneak into the 8th slot?

[ntjacks79]

Anyway, isn't it a ###### of a lot nicer being able to argue over this instead of trying to scrape together what it would take to sneak into the 8th slot?

Yes, I'll grant you this, even though I don't understand your Magic Number logic. ;-). You aren't a Red Sox fan, are you? ;-)

[SwampD]

The 3rd team always complicates things. Even in baseball if a third team was in the picture, the talking heads wouldn't go to a so called magic number, quite simply because it is not absolute. You say the magic number is 6 points (and it is if we're talking about 6 points won), but I've already outlined a scenario for you where those the 6 points is met yet we don't win the division. It won't happen, but as long as it's possible, I'll mention it.

 

Anyway, isn't it a ###### of a lot nicer being able to argue over this instead of trying to scrape together what it would take to sneak into the 8th slot?

This just isn't true. It doesn't matter how we get six points. We get them we win the division. Period.

 

If we get 6 overtime losses, we win the division.

[ntjacks79]

This just isn't true. It doesn't matter how we get six points. We get them we win the division. Period.

 

If we get 6 overtime losses, we win the division.

I can't believe I'm arguing on behalf of the guy who's arguing with me, ;-), but his point is simply that a Magic Number of 6 implies that if Ottawa loses 6 possible points, the Sabres should clinch - but they don't. The Sabres don't clinch unless Montreal also loses a point (assuming the Sabres never get another point). If the Sabres win 6 points, it's over no matter who does what.

[SwampD]

I can't believe I'm arguing on behalf of the guy who's arguing with me, ;-), but his point is simply that a Magic Number of 6 implies that if Ottawa loses 6 possible points, the Sabres should clinch - but they don't. The Sabres don't clinch unless Montreal also loses a point (assuming the Sabres never get another point). If the Sabres win 6 points, it's over no matter who does what.

Well if we're talking crazy then the magic number is zero. If the Sabres, Habs, Bruins and Senetors all get zero points from here on out, then the Sabres win the division. I know that's impossible but since we're talkin' crazy anyway...

 

The magic number is the magic number. It changes over time but right now it's 6.

[Dave Dryden]

I can't believe I'm arguing on behalf of the guy who's arguing with me, ;-), but his point is simply that a Magic Number of 6 implies that if Ottawa loses 6 possible points, the Sabres should clinch - but they don't. The Sabres don't clinch unless Montreal also loses a point (assuming the Sabres never get another point). If the Sabres win 6 points, it's over no matter who does what.

Or put another way, they are 6 from clinching against Ottawa, and 1 from clinching against Montreal--in both cases any combination of Buffalo getting points and the other team "losing" points by not winning.

 

Right now Buffalo has 94 points. If Ottawa wins out they can get to 99 at best and have the tiebreaker against Buffalo. If Montreal wins out, they can get to 94 points, and have the tiebreaker(more wins if Buffalo loses out). Buffalo gets to 100, Ottawa can't catch them no matter what they do. Buffalo gets to 95, Montreal can't catch them.

 

Buffalo's tasks get easier to the extent Ottawa and Montreal lose games, as their possible maximum point total goes down. If Ottawa, for example, loses tonight, then the most they can get for the year is 97 points, so the Sabres magic number to win the division vis Ottawa goes to getting 98 points, or just 4 more. Anything less than Buffalo losing all 7 remaining games in regulation and Montreal winning all 6 of their games and Montreal is out of Division contention.

[Dave Dryden]

Well if we're talking crazy then the magic number is zero. If the Sabres, Habs, Bruins and Senetors all get zero points from here on out, then the Sabres win the division. I know that's impossible but since we're talkin' crazy anyway...

 

The magic number is the magic number. It changes over time but right now it's 6.

No. Buffalo loses all 7 games it has left in regulation--finishes with 94. Ottawa goes 3-3("giving" Buffalo 6 points) finishes with 93--Buffalo beats them with the magic 6. But Montreal wins out, gets to 94 and has the tiebreaker, wins the division with 94. So the magic number vis Ottawa currently is 6, and a different magic number for Montreal is 1. Any points Buffalo gets works down both magic numbers. But points "lost" by Ottawa, for example, does nothing to reduce the Sabres magic number vis Montreal, and vice versa. Make sense?

[shrader]

The funny part is that the Montreal thing will be probably be settled after one game, but since the possibility (0.001% or whatever it is) I have to mention it.

[SwampD]

No. Buffalo loses all 7 games it has left in regulation--finishes with 94. Ottawa goes 3-3("giving" Buffalo 6 points) finishes with 93--Buffalo beats them with the magic 6. But Montreal wins out, gets to 94 and has the tiebreaker, wins the division with 94. So the magic number vis Ottawa currently is 6, and a different magic number for Montreal is 1. Any points Buffalo gets works down both magic numbers. But points "lost" by Ottawa, for example, does nothing to reduce the Sabres magic number vis Montreal, and vice versa. Make sense?

Well I'll be dipped in sh##!?!

 

 

I think I didn't see this at first because I never think of how to get into the playoffs in terms of what other teams do. I never want to have to count on someone else to do my business. Sabres, just get 6 points and be done with it.