a question before the season gets underway

[HockeyTruth]

The bolded part says it all. Playing the trap in the playoffs wasn't the reason NJ left the playoffs early, it was who they had playing it. They weren't that good last year. The trap worked just fine for them when they won all those SCs, because they had the players to do it.

 

I personally don't care about what kind of lines the Sabres have as long as they are better than the lines of the team they are playing.

So Nj didn't have the players to make the trap work, but are you saying that the Sabres do?

Because the question is how far will Buffalo go with these projected lineups we see these forum fans excited about?

 

Are those players supposed to be the players that can lock down leads, like a few of these people have just suggested?

Tell me, because I get a laugh out of that.

 

What role do you see those 3/4 lines playing in turning the Sabres around?

 

I don't see it, they'll NEED help from some skill players out of Portland, and I don't just mean filling in for injuries.

[...]

KK6666, if you hate forums, why do you haunt them? And why do you group all of the ideas in all forums into one convenient lump that you go after?

 

I don't visit many hockey-oriented forums; this one is my go-to and once in a while I'll check the Sabres official forum - but at the forums I have visited and blog comments I have read I don't get this overwhelming sense that "fans" are happy, or would prefer, so-called "energy" or "shut-down" lines.

 

Sabres fans want the Sabres to win - but most lucid, reasonable people realize that they have painted themselves into a corner in one sense, and the FO refuses to take any risks in an attempt to improve the team. So, the threads where people are putting together possible lines are doing so with what's available.

 

You can bitch and moan about the crap 3/4 lines the Sabres have, and that the second line lacks the talent to be a second line - but the fact is that these are the players they have right now. What are fans supposed to do, other than bow before your self-described "knowledge" and write off the entire season before it starts?

[HockeyTruth]

So in the 35 games I referenced it was nothing but your top 2 lines who scored the goals?

Did I say that?

No, you said the scoring problem were due to inconsistency on the scoring lines.

I said they have little to no secondary scoring as a big part of the problem.

[LabattBlue]

Ah! You speak...

 

 

 

The Truth...

 

 

 

The Truth about Hockey...

 

 

 

The Hockey Truth...

 

 

 

the HockeyTruth...

 

 

Hey, now I get it.

:lol:

[LabattBlue]

Did I say that?

No, you said the scoring problem were due to inconsistency on the scoring lines.

I said they have little to no secondary scoring as a big part of the problem.

okay. :blink:

[HockeyTruth]

I was going to say basically the same thing, specifically in reference to:

 

If playing that type of a lineup works in the regular season, as you (HockeyTruth) admit it did in New Jersey, then why not use it to get into the playoffs? They can always call up more scoring (or ... gasp ... acquire some at the deadline) and revamp the bottom lines after the roster expansion in March to get set for a deep playoff run with a lines like those exception teams.

I never admitted that NJ has the type of lineup Buffalo has.

I don't have any clue where you get that nonsense from.

I replied to someone who suggested that nonsense and asked repeatedly where they see these type of forwards on the fan's projected 3/4 lines for the Sabres.

 

Nice try, but that straw man argument won't get past me.

Nowhere did I suggest these lines for Buffalo mirror the NJ devils, that's hilarious.

 

I have asked several times in this thread and I'll ask it again, tell me who on those lines do you see in this shutdown roll.

[wjag]

So Nj didn't have the players to make the trap work, but are you saying that the Sabres do?

Because the question is how far will Buffalo go with these projected lineups we see these forum fans excited about?

 

Are those players supposed to be the players that can lock down leads, like a few of these people have just suggested?

Tell me, because I get a laugh out of that.

 

What role do you see those 3/4 lines playing in turning the Sabres around?

 

I don't see it, they'll NEED help from some skill players out of Portland, and I don't just mean filling in for injuries.

I think the 3rd line is the lock down line as constituted. Hecht-Gaustad-Grier does have the potential to be more of a lock down line than a scoring line. The 4th line won't be on the ice with the game on the line. Think about it, if they had won just fifty percent of the games they had a lead in after 2 last year, they would have been in the playoffs. I'm not asking for 39-1-1 (although I would love it), just fifty percent better than last year. I think the 3rd line will play a lot against the opposing team's first line. Gaustad will be out there taking the opening draw most nights.

[LabattBlue]

Looking at the 08-09 stats, take away the top 6 scoring forwards for the Sabres and the next 6 forwards(who would be your 3rd and 4th liners) scored 64 goals last year. Guess how many goals were scored by the Penguins forwards who finished in the 7-12 spots on their team in goal scoring? That would be 64. So much for the penguins rolling 4 scoring lines.

 

Like I said previously, the bottom 6 on the Sabres isn't the problem. <_<

 

I hope I'm not talking in cliches again! :lol:

[carpandean]

Exactly, they had little to no secondary scoring.

You have players like Vanek ,Roy and Connolly, they produce but no team's top players score every game. And when they do they don't necessarily score hat tricks.

 

Look at Ottawa, they had the same problem.

Are you going to tell me that the problem with Ottawa was that Heatley Spezza and Alfredson are inconsistent.

It doesn't exist on any team.

 

If the Sabres coaching staff adopts something equivalent to this most recent forum hockey speak and goes the majority of the season with that approach they'll end up on the golf course.

 

Many people on forums talk in cliches and sound bites that circulate, but I'm talking about the reality of what happens in the NHL.

OK, here's something for you. After undoing the trade deadline moves (Kunitz and Guerin were a big infusion of scoring for their playoff run), here's a graph of Penguins' ranked scorers against the Sabres:

and the same for goals:

Basically, if a point is above the line, the Penguins' equivalently ranked player (e.g., 10th vs. 10th) scored more; below the line, the Sabres' player scored more. The depth on the Sabres looks at least as good and possibly better. The top scorers were the difference. If I have time later, I'll check a few other teams, but I'm guessing that it won't be that different. If Stafford finds consistency, Connolly stays healthy and Pommer, Hecht and even Roy rebound (point-wise), they will be fine for scoring.

[LabattBlue]

OK, here's something for you. After undoing the trade deadline moves (Kunitz and Guerin were a big infusion of scoring for their playoff run), here's a graph of Penguins' ranked scorers against the Sabres:

and the same for goals:

Basically, if a point is above the line, the Penguins' equivalently ranked player (e.g., 10th vs. 10th) scored more; below the line, the Sabres' player scored more. The depth on the Sabres looks at least as good and possibly better. The top scorers were the difference. If I have time later, I'll check a few other teams, but I'm guessing that it won't be that different.

Great minds think alike(I just don't have any fancy graphs). :rolleyes:

[...]

I think the 3rd line is a lock down line as constituted. Hecht-Gaustad-Grier does have the potential to be more of a lock down line than a scoring line. The 4th line won't be on the ice with the game on the line. Think about it, if they had won just fifty percent of the games they had a lead in after 2 last year, they would have been in the playoffs. I'm not asking for 39-1-1 (although I would love it), just fifty percent better than last year. I think the 3rd line will play a lot against the opposing team's first line. Gaustad will be out there taking the opening draw most nights.

 

 

I hope you're wrong about the bolded part - obviously depending on who is on that line - but say they throw Kennedy there? All of a sudden, the fourth line is about as much a threat as the second line.

 

Hecht, Gaustad and Grier are too slow to ride with other teams' top lines - they're not shut-down material. To shut down a line, you have to not only be able to play defensively, but also provide offense - you take the offensive game away from the line you're trying to shut down and then generate your own offense. LR has been talking about this recently, so he apparently agrees with the idea.

 

H, G, and G could perhaps do one or the other with the right game plan (although they'd be much better at defense than offense IMHO) but with the Sabres weak D I can't see them successfully doing both consistently. Hope I'm wrong, but aside from a good second line, I'm not sure what the Sabres third line is supposed to be. I'm alright with the first and potential fourth lines.

[HockeyTruth]

okay. :blink:

I hope that's not too complicated.

If you rely almost exclusively on 5 or 6 players that is what will happen.

Bookmark this, because you'll see a repeat of the same thing if this is the route Buffalo takes.

 

These stats you are giving me are stats that I have referenced many times, they are the premise of what I am saying.

They definitely in no way argue against what I say, those stats support it.

 

Last year at this time when fans were blabbering about Buffalo being 4th in the league in scoring I argued that that stat isn't as meaningful as they think and I cited how many games they scored 2 or less.

That was after they finished 4th in scoring!

I was already warning that they were going to need to add a goalscorer.

 

And what I am saying again is without a good season from new blood out of Portland, you will see more of the same.

 

Do you think that Lindy Ruff or Darcy Regier can just throw around this consistency stuff and suddenly the Sabres are going to turn into a two line team that scores every game?

[carpandean]

Great minds think alike(I just don't have any fancy graphs). :rolleyes:

And the five minutes difference in posts shows that I spend too much time on my fancy graphs. :death:

[That Aud Smell]

Two full lines of these lunchpail players is overkill and a formula for failure.

Most NHL teams use this type of set up for their lines. Two scoring lines, a defensive line and a physical line.

yeah, i'm with ink on this one. the halcyon days of rollin' 4 lines are gone, for now. i'm glad to see them with a legitimate checking line -- one, which, btw, has guys who can chip in with a few (especially if hecht returns to form, which i am starting to think he will).

 

Many people on forums talk in cliches and sound bites that circulate, but I'm talking about the reality of what happens in the NHL.

:worthy:

 

<_<

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cdiz0k0Rudw

[HockeyTruth]

I see someone here suggesting that Kennedy be put on the 4th line.

He's not a 4th line player and his talent will be watered down on the 4th line.

 

The Sabres need to make Kennedy or Ennis the 3rd line center.

[LabattBlue]

I hope that's not too complicated.

If you rely almost exclusively on 5 or 6 players that is what will happen.

Bookmark this, because you'll see a repeat of the same thing if this is the route Buffalo takes.

 

These stats you are giving me are stats that I have referenced many times, they are the premise of what I am saying.

They definitely in no way argue against what I say, those stats support it.

 

Last year at this time when fans were blabbering about Buffalo being 4th in the league in scoring I argued that that stat isn't as meaningful as they think and I cited how many games they scored 2 or less.

That was after they finished 4th in scoring!

I was already warning that they were going to need to add a goalscorer.

 

And what I am saying again is without a good season from new blood out of Portland, you will see more of the same.

 

Do you think that Lindy Ruff or Darcy Regier can just throw around this consistency stuff and suddenly the Sabres are going to turn into a two line team that scores every game?

Go back and look at posts 33 and 34.

[HockeyTruth]

yeah, i'm with ink on this one. the halcyon days of rollin' 4 lines are gone, for now. i'm glad to see them with a legitimate checking line -- one, which, btw, has guys who can chip in with a few (especially if hecht returns to form, which i am starting to think he will).

You can "be with ink" all you want and you can try to imply that I advocate rolling four lines, in fact I ridiculed it.

You can play all the little kiddie videos you want.

 

And after you are done with all that nothing changes, most NHL teams do not seek to put together lines that follow that structure.

The teams end up that way from lack of talent not from it being winning formula that most teams follow.

[carpandean]

I see someone here suggesting that Kennedy be put on the 4th line.

He's not a 4th line player and his talent will be watered down on the 4th line.

 

The Sabres need to make Kennedy or Ennis the 3rd line center.

I agree that he is wasted on the 4th line (though, you would obviously play that 4th line more than one with, say, Ellis at center), but I'd be willing to bet that you are more likely to see something like:

 

Vanek-Connolly-Pommer

Roy-Kennedy-Stafford

Hecht-Gaustad-Grier

Paille-Ellis-Kaleta

 

With Roy taking important draws until Kennedy improves at those, as well as double-shifting as a center for some combination of the bottom two lines when trailing.

[carpandean]

You can "be with ink" all you want and you can try to imply that I advocate rolling four lines, in fact I ridiculed it.

You can play all the little kiddie videos you want.

 

And after you are done with all that nothing changes, most NHL teams do not seek to put together lines that follow that structure.

The teams end up that way from lack of talent not from it being winning formula that most teams follow.

You do know that "rolling four lines" is in reference to the post-lockout days where all four lines had serious scoring potential (e.g., Vanek-Roy-Max as a third line), right?

[nfreeman]

I agree that he is wasted on the 4th line (though, you would obviously play that 4th line more than one with, say, Ellis at center), but I'd be willing to bet that you are more likely to see something like:

 

Vanek-Connolly-Pommer

Roy-Kennedy-Stafford

Hecht-Gaustad-Grier

Paille-Ellis-Kaleta

 

With Roy taking important draws until Kennedy improves at those, as well as double-shifting as a center for some combination of the bottom two lines when trailing.

I think MacArthur will play quite a bit more than Paille.

 

As for the "shutdown line" theory -- I don't really subscribe to it either. I think it's much more likely that we'll see one of the Sabres' top 2 lines vs the opponent's top line. Having said that, I think Gaustad-Hecht-Grier will be a very good third line this year.

[HockeyTruth]

I agree that he is wasted on the 4th line (though, you would obviously play that 4th line more than one with, say, Ellis at center), but I'd be willing to bet that you are more likely to see something like:

 

Vanek-Connolly-Pommer

Roy-Kennedy-Stafford

Hecht-Gaustad-Grier

Paille-Ellis-Kaleta

 

With Roy taking important draws until Kennedy improves at those, as well as double-shifting as a center for some combination of the bottom two lines when trailing.

Why would they move Roy to the wing?

The common denominator to winning teams is talent at center, last thing I would do is move Roy to the wing.

Where is MacArthur in this lineup?

You're adding offense from Kennedy but subsracting it by losing MacArthur.

 

This team needs 3 legitimate centers to begin to return to where they were.

[HockeyTruth]

I think MacArthur will play quite a bit more than Paille.

 

As for the "shutdown line" theory -- I don't really subscribe to it either. I think it's much more likely that we'll see one of the Sabres' top 2 lines vs the opponent's top line. Having said that, I think Gaustad-Hecht-Grier will be a very good third line this year.

That's correct, putting that Gaustad line up against top lines is strictly fiction.

It's forum hockey speak, in fact some fans will argue until they are blue in the face that this is how the Sabres do use Gaustad.

They don't and if they do they'll end up in the basement.

[carpandean]

Why would they move Roy to the wing?

The common denominator to winning teams is talent at center, last thing I would do is move Roy to the wing.

And where is MacArthur in this lineup?

You're adding offense from Kennedy but subsracting it by losing MacArthur.

 

This team needs 3 legitimate centers to begin to return to where they were.

Roy has played at wing many times before. He is one of those guys who is very good at just about everything, but not top tier (like Vanek is top tier at scoring goals from in front of the net) at any one thing. He is a decent playmaker and a decent shooter. I see Kennedy as having potential to be a better playmaker, but probably not as good of a shooter. Putting Kennedy at center, where you want the playmaker, and moving Roy to wing would create two very good scoring lines.

 

As for Mac, you can put him on the fourth line wing, if you want or use him for depth with injuries. He chipped in much of his offense in brief bursts, followed by long dry spells. There will be plenty of injuries (there always are), so he would see plenty of action.

 

I'm sure that you would advocate (not trying to put words in your mouth; just guessing):

 

Vanek-Roy-Stafford

MacArthur-Connolly-Pommer

Hecht-Kennedy-Grier

Paille/Ellis-Gaustad-Kaleta

 

which I wouldn't have a real problem with, either, but I don't necessarily think it would be significantly better. I would guess that it would generate a little more from the bottom two lines and and little less from the top two.

[HockeyTruth]

Roy has played at wing many times before. He is one of those guys who is very good at just about everything, but not top tier (like Vanek is top tier at scoring goals from in front of the net) at any one thing. He is a decent playmaker and a decent shooter. I see Kennedy as having potential to be a better playmaker, but probably not as good of a shooter. Putting Kennedy at center, where you want the playmaker, and moving Roy to wing would create two very good scoring lines.

 

As for Mac, you can put him on the fourth line wing, if you want or use him for depth with injuries. He chipped in much of his offense in brief bursts, followed by long dry spells. There will be plenty of injuries (there always are), so he would see plenty of action.

 

I'm sure that you would advocate (not trying to put words in your mouth; just guessing):

 

Vanek-Roy-Stafford

MacArthur-Connolly-Pommer

Hecht-Kennedy-Grier

Paille/Ellis-Gaustad-Kaleta

 

which I wouldn't have a real problem with, either, but I don't necessarily think it would be significantly better. I would guess that it would generate a little more from the bottom two lines and and little less from the top two.

Well yeah Kennedy is a playmaker but that's no motivation to move Roy to the wing and to put MacArthur on the bench or on the 4th line where we end up with a repeat of Afinogenov.

 

No skill player belongs on that line.

 

You guessed right when you assume that I think the best way to utilize Kennedy is at center, keeping both Roy and Connolly at center.

And I disagree, I think that lineup would be significantly better.

No doubt in my mind, establishing Ennis or Kennedy as the 3rd line center is the biggest single improvement this team can make.

 

In fact I'll bookmark this and come back to it.

No matter how much they are invested in promoting Gaustad as a captain or a key player this will be the end result.

Bank on it.

[shrader]

OK, here's something for you. After undoing the trade deadline moves (Kunitz and Guerin were a big infusion of scoring for their playoff run), here's a graph of Penguins' ranked scorers against the Sabres:

and the same for goals:

Basically, if a point is above the line, the Penguins' equivalently ranked player (e.g., 10th vs. 10th) scored more; below the line, the Sabres' player scored more. The depth on the Sabres looks at least as good and possibly better. The top scorers were the difference. If I have time later, I'll check a few other teams, but I'm guessing that it won't be that different. If Stafford finds consistency, Connolly stays healthy and Pommer, Hecht and even Roy rebound (point-wise), they will be fine for scoring.

 

I really don't see the point of comparing any team to Pittsburgh. They're in a situation that we haven't seen many times over the years. They have two of the top 3-5 players in all of hockey (I'd put them at 1 and 3, but that's not the point). Relative to the rest of the talent around the league at their time, we're talking Gretzky-Messier, Lemieux-Jagr, and maybe Sakic-Forsberg (yeah, this one might hear a bit of a fight). Of course they're going to thrive on front line scoring. The presence of Malkin and Crosby makes Pittsburgh so unique that any comparison league-wide pretty pointless to me.