Too much depth?

[Vanek Nation]

There are way too many guys on the roster right now... so who stays and who goes?

 

Right now at Forward:

 

Thomas Vanek - Jason Pominville - Tim Connolly - Derek Roy - Jochen Hecht - Drew Stafford - Paul Gaustad - Clarke MacArthur - Mike Grier - Daniel Paille - Nathan Gerbe - Tim Kennedy - Adam Mair -Cody McCormick - Patrick Kaleta - Matt Ellis

 

That is 16 starters/hopefuls.

 

Right now at Defense:

 

Craig Rivet -Toni Lydman — Henrik Tallinder — Steve Montador — Tyler Myers - Andrej Sekera — Chris Butler - Nathan Paetsch — Mike Weber

 

That is 9 starters/hopefuls.

 

So you can see we have a TON of depth. I just don't see roster spots for the young guys that I'm sure everyone is hoping to see like Gerbe, Kennedy and Myers.

 

This is how I see the starting roster for next season:

 

http://www.capgeek.com/cap_calculator.php

 

This leaves off Myers, Weber, Kennedy, Gerbe, and Ellis. Also, It estimates a 2.75 cap hit from Staff. That puts our Salary hit at 55.5 million, which I'm assuming is well over the 51-52 number that I think management is aiming for.

 

So, what happens now? Clearly some players have to be unloaded before the season starts. Who is it going to be?

 

I'm sure everyone would love to see hecht and tallinder go, to clear up 6 million and open up a couple spots for the young guys, but that is probably not realistic.

 

What do you guys think will happen?

[Vanek Nation]

Sorry link didn't work, but you get the idea.

[darksabre]

I'm not hoping to see Gerbe, for the record.

 

I also think Darcy plays it safe and keeps the younger players down with the exception of Myers who will get his look. Other than that, take the youngins off the list.

[...]

I would not be surprised at all if they unloaded no one. The roster the Sabres have as of this moment may very well be the roster they start the season with. I wouldn't doubt Stafford is a hold-out. Of course, I would love to be wrong.

 

I was going over some of the post season interviews with Ruff and DR, through July 1, and it sounds like A)Ruff is alright with who he has on the roster, and B) DR was looking forward to roster moves via trade which he thought would happen starting within a few weeks after July 1.

 

I don't think there are very many trade options for the Sabres right now - not until their so-called dead weight can prove they're worth something to, well, anyone.

[deluca67]

There are way too many guys on the roster right now... so who stays and who goes?

 

Right now at Forward:

 

Thomas Vanek - Jason Pominville - Tim Connolly - Derek Roy - Jochen Hecht - Drew Stafford - Paul Gaustad - Clarke MacArthur - Mike Grier - Daniel Paille - Nathan Gerbe - Tim Kennedy - Adam Mair -Cody McCormick - Patrick Kaleta - Matt Ellis

 

That is 16 starters/hopefuls.

 

Right now at Defense:

 

Craig Rivet -Toni Lydman — Henrik Tallinder — Steve Montador — Tyler Myers - Andrej Sekera — Chris Butler - Nathan Paetsch — Mike Weber

 

That is 9 starters/hopefuls.

 

So you can see we have a TON of depth. I just don't see roster spots for the young guys that I'm sure everyone is hoping to see like Gerbe, Kennedy and Myers.

 

This is how I see the starting roster for next season:

 

http://www.capgeek.com/cap_calculator.php

 

This leaves off Myers, Weber, Kennedy, Gerbe, and Ellis. Also, It estimates a 2.75 cap hit from Staff. That puts our Salary hit at 55.5 million, which I'm assuming is well over the 51-52 number that I think management is aiming for.

 

So, what happens now? Clearly some players have to be unloaded before the season starts. Who is it going to be?

 

I'm sure everyone would love to see hecht and tallinder go, to clear up 6 million and open up a couple spots for the young guys, but that is probably not realistic.

 

What do you guys think will happen?

"Depth" is the wrong word to use here. "Depth" seems to indicate a higher level of quality than the Sabres have.

[carpandean]

"Depth" is the wrong word to use here. "Depth" seems to indicate a higher level of quality than the Sabres have.

Or, perhaps, too much "depth" is exactly the problem. Typically, "depth" players are the guys at the end of the roster or even in the AHL marked as fill-ins for the team's regular players. If too many of your regulars really should be depth players, at best, you are in trouble. Case in point: Clarke MacArthur is as likely as anyone else on the roster to start as the second-line left winger.

[wjag]

This will take care of itself. These are the Sabres we're talking about. They need this many players just to take care of the injuries...

[JohnRobertEichel]

This roster screams MEDIOCRITY.

[shrader]

This leaves off Myers, Weber, Kennedy, Gerbe, and Ellis. Also, It estimates a 2.75 cap hit from Staff. That puts our Salary hit at 55.5 million, which I'm assuming is well over the 51-52 number that I think management is aiming for.

 

The cap hit isn't the right number to look at. Since that $51-52 million number is a budget, you need to look at the actual 2009-2010 salaries. Since some players are at different stages of front/back-loaded contracts, those numbers won't be the same. I'm too lazy to look it up myself, but I'd expect it to be a near wash. But still, assuming that $51-52 million budget, there may be a little more money to work with than you think.

[carpandean]

The cap hit isn't the right number to look at. Since that $51-52 million number is a budget, you need to look at the actual 2009-2010 salaries. Since some players are at different stages of front/back-loaded contracts, those numbers won't be the same. I'm too lazy to look it up myself, but I'd expect it to be a near wash. But still, assuming that $51-52 million budget, there may be a little more money to work with than you think.

You are right about cap vs. salary, but it does pretty much wash. As for there being room, not so much:

 

 

That's just over $53 million in cap and salary without Stafford (or any other RW.) Add $2-3 million for Stafford (who knows what it will be) and they are in the $55-56 million range with a full 23 man roster. Even if they send someone like Ellis or McCormick down, they aren't saving much. Add in the potential that Myers will be up here. Really, moving Tallinder would be the best thing for them. Replacing his $3.25 million salary with a kid making under $1 million would help a ton.

[shrader]

You are right about cap vs. salary, but it does pretty much wash. As for there being room, not so much:

 

 

That's just over $53 million in cap and salary without Stafford (or any other RW.) Add $2-3 million for Stafford (who knows what it will be) and they are in the $55-56 million range with a full 23 man roster. Even if they send someone like Ellis or McCormick down, they aren't saving much. Add in the potential that Myers will be up here. Really, moving Tallinder would be the best thing for them. Replacing his $3.25 million salary with a kid making under $1 million would help a ton.

 

Stafford could end up with some sort of front-loaded deal too, but that wouldn't change the fact that they're close already without him.

 

Ellis being sent down would save the team nothing. The articles around the time of his signing made a point of mentioning that it was a one-way deal. So really, sending him down would actually cost them more, since they'd be paying him anyway, plus the NHL side of Kennedy or Gerbe's deal (significantly more than Ellis's contract).

 

And I'll nitpick a little here. I've never seen the numbers on Myers deal, but I'm assuming there are decent bonuses in there that bump him up over a million. If he's that kid filling Tallinder's spot, that's more than a million bucks. But still, money's money and they're definitely saving something there. But if that kid winds up being Weber, you're point is completely accurate.

[deluca67]

Or, perhaps, too much "depth" is exactly the problem. Typically, "depth" players are the guys at the end of the roster or even in the AHL marked as fill-ins for the team's regular players. If too many of your regulars really should be depth players, at best, you are in trouble. Case in point: Clarke MacArthur is as likely as anyone else on the roster to start as the second-line left winger.

To me that's not depth. Depth, IMO, means you have solid starters and adequate replacements if they get hurt. I think the drop off from Vanek, Roy and Pominville is to steep to be considered depth.

[X. Benedict]

To me that's not depth. Depth, IMO, means you have solid starters and adequate replacements if they get hurt. I think the drop off from Vanek, Roy and Pominville is to steep to be considered depth.

 

Could you humor me and name 3 teams in the conference with "depth" as you consider "depth"?

[carpandean]

Ellis being sent down would save the team nothing. The articles around the time of his signing made a point of mentioning that it was a one-way deal. So really, sending him down would actually cost them more, since they'd be paying him anyway, plus the NHL side of Kennedy or Gerbe's deal (significantly more than Ellis's contract).

 

And I'll nitpick a little here. I've never seen the numbers on Myers deal, but I'm assuming there are decent bonuses in there that bump him up over a million. If he's that kid filling Tallinder's spot, that's more than a million bucks. But still, money's money and they're definitely saving something there. But if that kid winds up being Weber, you're point is completely accurate.

Yes, I forgot that Ellis has a one-way contract (odd, because I have specifically mentioned that as a point in previous posts.) McCormick is on a two-way deal, so he would be the likely candidate to be sent down. I was assuming that one of those two would be sent down without replacement to save salary, leaving them with 13 forwards and 22 total players. So, sending McCormick down might save you $400k give or take, depending on what his AHL salary is. Still not a significant amount.

 

You are also correct that Myers is a different story. I haven't seen his deal either, but I wouldn't be surprised if his salary + bonuses is potentially as much as Tallinder's salary. The max is somewhere around $3.75 million (looking at recent #1/#2 picks) and while I doubt he got quite that much, I'm sure he got a fair amount. I was, in fact, thinking more of Weber's salary.

[Stoner]

You are right about cap vs. salary, but it does pretty much wash. As for there being room, not so much:

 

 

That's just over $53 million in cap and salary without Stafford (or any other RW.) Add $2-3 million for Stafford (who knows what it will be) and they are in the $55-56 million range with a full 23 man roster. Even if they send someone like Ellis or McCormick down, they aren't saving much. Add in the potential that Myers will be up here. Really, moving Tallinder would be the best thing for them. Replacing his $3.25 million salary with a kid making under $1 million would help a ton.

 

Not to beat a dead horse -- OK, I'll beat it -- but only if you're playing Fantasy Beancounter does replacing Tallinder with a kid "help a ton" or represent "the best thing" for the Sabres. Besides, only Regier knows what his budget is.

[shrader]

Not to beat a dead horse -- OK, I'll beat it -- but only if you're playing Fantasy Beancounter does replacing Tallinder with a kid "help a ton" or represent "the best thing" for the Sabres. Besides, only Regier knows what his budget is.

 

It really doesn't matter what the budget is. If you believe a player to be dead weight and replace him with another who has a lower contract, that's money saved. It's either a few extra dollars to spend somewhere else, or it's moving payroll back down closer to their budget. Money's money.

[Stoner]

It really doesn't matter what the budget is. If you believe a player to be dead weight and replace him with another who has a lower contract, that's money saved. It's either a few extra dollars to spend somewhere else, or it's moving payroll back down closer to their budget. Money's money.

 

It matters only if Regier thinks he's dead weight. I doubt he is as down on Tallinder as the rest of us.

[shrader]

It matters only if Regier thinks he's dead weight. I doubt he is as down on Tallinder as the rest of us.

 

Or if Ruff thinks so, or if either wants to see Myers in the NHL this season. Looking at how many times he was a scratch late last year, it's pretty logical conclusion to come to that he's on one of the lowest rungs of the ladder.

 

Really though, I don't consider him to be dead weight at all. He just seems like one of those guys that would benefit the most from a change of scenery.

[matter2003]

I think the Sabres are working on getting some toughness onto the roster this year, waiting to get rid of some of the dead weight when contract expires next year and hoping the kids on the farm system continue to be as promising as they look...

[henysgol]

This roster screams MEDIOCRITY.

 

Vanek, Connolly, Rivet, Miller, Gaustad, Kaleta, and Butler are definitely not mediocre players. And we have no idea how Pominville, Hecht and Roy will perform(which sucks). I really like them, and I really want to see them succeed this year. I have a feeling Montador and Grier are going to make us glad they're on the team this year. They filled a couple holes that needed to be filled, especially ruggedness. And before anyone starts ripping on Grier let me just say he may be slow but he's tough, intimidating, good on the PK and a good leader. Rivet and Miller can't be the only mouths on the bench or in the locker room, and I think Grier's presence alone will help some of the guys stay focused. He gets respect, and the young guys NEED someone to respect. It definitely makes them play better when there's a voice of experience. It's not all about points. As far as the squirts, I think we have just the right mix who are ready to step in in case of injury. We definitely need to get RID of Tallinder! Has anyone spoke in his favor in the past 3 years? It's obvious he needs to go. And Lydman would be a good dump as well. Geez...if the Sabres could just get RID of them!! It eats away at me.

[fiftyone]

Vanek, Connolly, Rivet, Miller, Gaustad, Kaleta, and Butler are definitely not mediocre players. And we have no idea how Pominville, Hecht and Roy will perform(which sucks). I really like them, and I really want to see them succeed this year. I have a feeling Montador and Grier are going to make us glad they're on the team this year. They filled a couple holes that needed to be filled, especially ruggedness. And before anyone starts ripping on Grier let me just say he may be slow but he's tough, intimidating, good on the PK and a good leader. Rivet and Miller can't be the only mouths on the bench or in the locker room, and I think Grier's presence alone will help some of the guys stay focused. He gets respect, and the young guys NEED someone to respect. It definitely makes them play better when there's a voice of experience. It's not all about points. As far as the squirts, I think we have just the right mix who are ready to step in in case of injury. We definitely need to get RID of Tallinder! Has anyone spoke in his favor in the past 3 years? It's obvious he needs to go. And Lydman would be a good dump as well. Geez...if the Sabres could just get RID of them!! It eats away at me.

 

 

I think these guys just about define a mediocre NHL player...

[henysgol]

I think these guys just about define a mediocre NHL player...

 

Mediocre players have no personality. Gaustad has a personality and he can win faceoffs. What good are high scoring players when you don't have hard winning the puck and getting it to them. Kaleta has a personality and he's a great pest. Butler is kind of a quiet guy but his personality comes out in his play. He knows what he's doing out there and he's going to be great this year.

[deluca67]

Could you humor me and name 3 teams in the conference with "depth" as you consider "depth"?

Boston, Pittsburgh, New Jersey and Philly.

 

Buffalo right now has a top line of Vanek, Roy and Pominville and a bunch of third and mostly fourth line players. That's not depth. The worst example of this is MacArthur who may be a second line player on the Sabres. When you have fourth line talent projecting that high you can't say you have depth.

[sweeper]

Can't they just put whoever they don't want anymore on waivers once it's getting closer to the season?

[fiftyone]

Mediocre players have no personality. Gaustad has a personality and he can win faceoffs. What good are high scoring players when you don't have hard winning the puck and getting it to them. Kaleta has a personality and he's a great pest. Butler is kind of a quiet guy but his personality comes out in his play. He knows what he's doing out there and he's going to be great this year.

 

I'm going to say that when a player's best "attribute," for lack of a better word, is his personality... he's a mediocre player. I'll take a team of skill players over a team of "personality" players any day.