wjag Posted July 3, 2009 Report Posted July 3, 2009 Certainly, one could create such a model. However, given the relatively small sample size and large number of potential independent variables (not just those listed, but things like market conditions, supply within the FA market for a given position, etc., etc.), as well as interaction effects among the independent variables (for example, a higher physicality score would be worth more on an 80 point player vs. a 30 point player), it could be difficult to create a model that truly estimates these effects well. Additionally, the traditional assumptions (for Gauss-Markov; e.g., homoskedasticity) would likely be violated, requiring more advanced models. However, as with most cases, you could likely create one that would be detested by true statisticians, but would work well enough for our purposed. :thumbsup: I'll betcha that agents and gms have models.. They can't be just pulling numbers out of the air, can they?
shrader Posted July 4, 2009 Report Posted July 4, 2009 I never understood why professors would try to get away with using the abbreviation for the central limit theorem.
silvermike Posted July 4, 2009 Author Report Posted July 4, 2009 With the new Rick Nash contract coming in, we get a chance to test the model here, and by its terms, Nash is heavily overpaid: $112k per point, following the median-of-the-last-three-years system, or 98k just off of last year's career best. Generally speaking, this does make sense - Nash is a goal scorer, and gets a premium. In particular, he's a guy who actually has way more goals than assists. - remember his 41G 16A game? So a points-measurement may be worth less for him. There seems to be a $7M/year minimum for 40 goal scorers. Also, you have to believe that he's worth more than his production indicates, since he's been on such a crap team. He had 23 more points than anyone else on the team; for comparison's sake, Roy led #2 Pominville by only 4 points. And finally, Columbus may have had to overpay extra to keep him around. Hossa had very similar numbers, but signed for considerably less per season (of course, that gets complicated by the fact that their contracts are similar over the first 7 years).
carpandean Posted July 5, 2009 Report Posted July 5, 2009 remember his 41G 16A game? Wow, how did I miss that?! 41 goals in one game?! :nana:
silvermike Posted July 5, 2009 Author Report Posted July 5, 2009 Wow, how did I miss that?! 41 goals in one game?! :nana: Haha - it was Columbus vs. Phoenix - no reporters or fans were in attendance to document the event.
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