Sabres Draft History

[That Aud Smell]

Here's a link to today's write-up. The story's pasted below.

 

I think Vogl did a good job crunching some numbers, but I found myself wanting him to hint at the larger truth that his analysis seems to point up: Whiffing on early-round picks, or even hitting a solid single or double into the gap, while successfully mining the later rounds for "contributors" (sorry to mix metaphors) may well be at the root of this team's mediocrity.

 

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Sabres find talent in roundabout way

 

By John Vogl

 

NEWS SPORTS REPORTER

 

NHL scouts and executives will gather in Montreal this weekend for the 2009 entry draft, intent on finding the future of their franchises.

 

The Buffalo Sabres and General Manager Darcy Regier are good at doing so ... though not necessarily in the first round.

 

The NHL draft is among the trickiest in pro sports, joining the Major League Baseball selection process, mainly because the 18-year-olds being chosen aren't ready to compete with the men in the league. NFL and NBA draftees, by comparison, are able to play immediately.

 

For the Sabres, the crapshoot begins right from the start. They have a number of first- round busts under Regier's watch.

 

From 1997 to 2006 (leaving out the last two drafts for natural maturation), three of the Sabres' 11 first-round picks haven't played in the NHL, while another played just 10 games.

 

Artem Kruikov (15th overall in 1999), Marek Zagrapan (13th in 2005) and Dennis Persson (24th in 2006) have yet to make "The Show." Barrett Heisten (20th in 1999) played 10 games for the New York Rangers in 2001-02.

 

Of the 291 first-round picks in the 10-year span, only 33 failed to make the NHL. The Sabres' three no-shows account for 9 percent of those failures, tied for most in the league. Edmonton, New Jersey, Phoenix and the New York Rangers also whiffed three times. But the Sabres are able to unearth contributors in the ensuing rounds. In fact, they do it at a better rate than the last six Stanley Cup champions.

 

The Sabres have made 107 picks under Regier, and 24 have become NHL contributors. (A contributor is someone who has played in 140 games or, in the case of Detroit rookie Justin Abdelkader, made a significant impact on his team.) That works out to a 22.4 percent success rate for Buffalo.

 

Among the Cup winners, only Pittsburgh and Anaheim boast success rates over 20 percent during the past 12 drafts. The Penguins have hit on 23 of their 109 picks (21.1 percent), while the Ducks were successful on 19 of 92 (20.7 percent).

 

Carolina is next at 16.7 percent (15 of 90), followed by Tampa Bay's 12.6 percent (15 of 119), New Jersey's 12.3 percent (13 of 106) and Detroit's 12.1 percent (13 of 107).

 

The Sabres will have six chances this weekend to add to their pool of potential contributors. They select 13th overall in the first round Friday night in Bell Centre, then have five picks Saturday. They do not have a second-round selection (it was traded to San Jose in last summer's Craig Rivet deal) and pick once each in Rounds Three through Seven.

 

The 13th spot generally yields a solid player, though the Sabres were one of two teams to buck that trend. Zagrapan and Edmonton's Michael Henrich (1998) are the only two players from 1997 to 2006 who have failed to make the NHL after being picked 13th. NHLers selected 13th in the span include the Oilers' Ales Hemsky, Washington's Alexander Semin, Los Angeles' Dustin Brown and the Sabres' Drew Stafford.

 

. . .

 

The Sabres and the Albright-Knox Art Gallery are teaming to host a draft party Friday at the Elmwood Avenue museum. The free event, which also features free parking at Buffalo State College, will run from 3 to 10 p.m. The draft will be broadcast beginning at 7 p.m.

 

Sabres players will be in attendance to sign autographs, and the Sabres Store will conduct a sidewalk sale. Street hockey games will be set up for children in the gallery's front parking lot; players must bring their own sticks, and those 12 and under need to wear a helmet.

 

There also will be inflatable games and hockey-related crafts, along with an appearance by Sabretooth.

 

jvogl@buffnews.com

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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? 2008 The Buffalo News.

[shrader]

I'd say it's the fact that they find plenty of marginal players but have trouble finding that superstar. Sure, it is partially related to the 1st round issue, but it goes well beyond that.

[Sabre Dance]

I'd say it's the fact that they find plenty of marginal players but have trouble finding that superstar. Sure, it is partially related to the 1st round issue, but it goes well beyond that.

 

Superstars would be nice, but how about just finding some plain old grinders in the draft? There are a bunch of these guys out there: the Staals, Neal, Cole... the list goes on. We always wind up with players like Stafford, Paille and MacArthur. (I can't tell this guys apart when they play except for the number on their sweaters; they all play about the same. Conversely, you could tell it was Darren Helm on the ice during the playoffs just by watching him check). Oh, wait... I know why. All of the good scouts the Sabres had are working for other teams now.

[shrader]

Superstars would be nice, but how about just finding some plain old grinders in the draft? There are a bunch of these guys out there: the Staals, Neal, Cole... the list goes on. We always wind up with players like Stafford, Paille and MacArthur. (I can't tell this guys apart when they play except for the number on their sweaters; they all play about the same. Conversely, you could tell it was Darren Helm on the ice during the playoffs just by watching him check). Oh, wait... I know why. All of the good scouts the Sabres had are working for other teams now.

 

Here we go again. You might want to take a look and see which scouts were with the team when each of those players you mentioned was drafted.

[carpandean]

I can't find the quote, but I seem to remember Darcy saying that he is heavily involved in selections during the first two rounds, but relies more on the scouting staff for choosing in those latter rounds. We do exceptionally well in the latter rounds, but have had considerable problems in the first round. What does that say? I wouldn't make a conclusion based on that small sample size, but it certainly suggests that Darcy is the problem.

 

I don't like doing the "would have, could have" game with the draft, because it's easy to find one guy after any player that did very well (Detroit is full of them.) However, somebody wrote a piece a while back that showed when Darcy reached (i.e., chose someone not expected to go that high) with first round picks and compared them to the guys that the major scouting reports would have suggested. He showed that Darcy's reaches never seemed to do well and that the "expected" players had a pretty high success rate. Again, a lot of hindsight in any of these, but certainly is suspect.

[Stoner]

Or maybe it goes to development and coaching. What does a Dan Paille become in Detroit?

[nobody]

For a team to be successful; they have to make good with those 1st two rounds. Especially the 1st round. Those are the players that should give you that tipping point into the playoffs. The ones who get the extra 5 or 10 goals or 10 or 15 more points. The ones who play the extra 3 to 5 minutes on the blueline, who play the special teams. The ones that step up just a little more when the top players are out with injury. When you are missing the playoffs by a few points you need that little bit more that the top picks should give you.

 

Look at 2000, with Artem Kruikov. If the Sabres had picked Marcel Hossa, Brooks Orpik, Alexander Frolov, Brad Boyes, Justin Williams or Niklas Kronwall; how do they not get that extra couple points in the standings to make the playofss.

[shrader]

The more I think about it, that first round failure things is overstated a bit. At this point, that list should only be Kruikov and Heisten (which was a screwy situation all around). I'm willing to consider Zagrapan at this point, but the comments from his agent when he left made it seem like the NHL is still his goal and they're using the KHL to get to that level. Persson is just now coming to the states, so the book is still out on him. By the standards Vogl laid out, only 6 players from the 2006 fit that contributer label so far.

 

Both of these players may end up joining that list (and I wouldn't be surprised), but I can't throw them there yet.

 

And I'll just throw this one out there. Vogl's mentioning of Justin Abdelkader seems completely out of left field.

[carpandean]

Or maybe it goes to development and coaching. What does a Dan Paille become in Detroit?

Yes, I had considered that, too. Quite possible.

[That Aud Smell]

Or maybe it goes to development and coaching. What does a Dan Paille become in Detroit?

more than fair.

 

The more I think about it, that first round failure things is overstated a bit.

agreed to a point -- but that was partly why i sought to expand the early round analysis to comprising both whiffs as well as what we might see as texas flares and squibbers down the third base line -- not that i stand at the ready to say that paille (weak year, yes?) and stafford would fit into those slots.

 

while it's not apropos of this thread, i could not help but think as i watched the playoffs that the sabres were/are nowhere near being ready/equipped to compete with the kind of hockey i generally saw from the conference semis onward.

[SDS]

Maybe our late round finds are directly related to our early round whiffs?

 

After all, those 1st rounders that went nowhere would have taken someone's roster spot.

[wonderbread]

Maybe our late round finds are directly related to our early round whiffs?

 

After all, those 1st rounders that went nowhere would have taken someone's roster spot.

 

Nice logic. The Butterfly effect.

[X. Benedict]

Maybe our late round finds are directly related to our early round whiffs?

 

After all, those 1st rounders that went nowhere would have taken someone's roster spot.

 

That's exactly it. 2007 was too loaded....even in late 2005 Pomminvile was waived now there

perception the cupboard is bare....talent has been developed and the draft has worked well in Buffalo.

Once they are in the fold, nobody really cares when they were drafted.

 

I think it was hard to wave Chris Thorburn two years ago, he was a middle second round pick.

There just wasn't a spot for him. He is basically the size and grit you would hope for with a draft pick

and should stay in the NHL for a 5-6 years.

[Stoner]

I can't find the quote, but I seem to remember Darcy saying that he is heavily involved in selections during the first two rounds, but relies more on the scouting staff for choosing in those latter rounds. We do exceptionally well in the latter rounds, but have had considerable problems in the first round. What does that say? I wouldn't make a conclusion based on that small sample size, but it certainly suggests that Darcy is the problem.

 

I don't like doing the "would have, could have" game with the draft, because it's easy to find one guy after any player that did very well (Detroit is full of them.) However, somebody wrote a piece a while back that showed when Darcy reached (i.e., chose someone not expected to go that high) with first round picks and compared them to the guys that the major scouting reports would have suggested. He showed that Darcy's reaches never seemed to do well and that the "expected" players had a pretty high success rate. Again, a lot of hindsight in any of these, but certainly is suspect.

 

Rather than Darcy being less involved in the later rounds, maybe it's that others are involved in the early picks. I doubt Golisano sticks his nose in it, but do we really know what role LQ and LR play?

[That Aud Smell]

Maybe our late round finds are directly related to our early round whiffs?

 

After all, those 1st rounders that went nowhere would have taken someone's roster spot.

 

That's exactly it.

interesting ... so much so that my head hurts now.