sven233 Posted June 19, 2009 Report Posted June 19, 2009 Well, it is definitely a slow time for all of us hockey fans right now, however, we are quickly approaching an exciting time of year. Before we head into next season, I want to take an objective look at our roster and see where we are all set and where we need to improve to have a legit chance to win the Cup next season. Unfortunately, at least in my eyes, we are lacking in many important areas. Please keep in mind that this is a VERY LONG and VERY DETAILED post. I am sorry for the length, but it is a slow time of year and I just wanted to thoroughly go through and evaluate the roster in many ways. So, the post is VERY LONG. I apologize in advance! After looking at the roster, what it all comes down to is that we have an overall lack of top end talent on this team (I know, I am stating the obvious). However, we do have a lot of pieces in place for a solid supporting cast. The problem is that for the past few years (and it looks like they will be doing the same thing this year) the organization has been trying to take 2nd and 3rd line talent and make them into Top Line players. Taking a look at the current roster, in my opinion, we only have 1 legit Top Line Player in Vanek. I really think that the rest of the players on this team fall into a 2nd Line or lower category. While players like Roy, Connolly, and Pominville do show flashes at times of being Top Line talent, I really feel they are all better suited on the 2nd Line. In fact, I truly believe that those players would make the perfect 2nd Line. I like Roy at center, but I think sliding him back to Wing would be the best thing for this team. So, with all that said, let's take a look at the roster and see who falls where: 1ST LINE TALENT: Vanek 2ND LINE TALENT: Roy Connolly Pominville Stafford (I think is between a 2nd and 3rd line talent at this point and I think he will be re-signed) 3RD LINE TALENT: Hecht MacArthur Paille (Between a 3rd and 4th line talent. I would like him better on a 4th line.....see below) Gaustad (Between a 3rd and 4th line talent. I would like him better on a 4th line.....see below) 4TH LINE TALENT: Kaleta Mair Ellis Peters (We know that Kaleta will be back, but who knows about the others.) So, that is a look at the forwards based on what I believe are the actual talent levels of the players, not where I think they will be played this season. However, the purpose of this post is to find a way to make this team better and be good enough to win the Cup this season as well as finding out what is missing. Using the players and their talent levels alone (not factoring in anything else) here is how I see the team in terms of talent level breaking down: VANEK - - ROY CONNOLLY POMINVILLE HECHT - STAFFORD PAILLE GAUSTAD KALETA The lineup above is obviously missing a few players that I had listed in the current talent level breakdown, but that goes along with much of the problem I have with this team's makeup right now. We just have too many guys that may be good enough to play on a 3rd or 4th line, but not enough upper tier guys. Sure, you could plug guys in like MacArthur and move Hecht back to Center on the 3rd line, but I don't like Hecht at Center at all. He is much better on the wing. And, regardless of what the coaching staff thinks, he is no better than a 3rd Line player. I would definitely be open to moving him, but I just don't see it happening. That is why I included him in the lineup. But, I am playing him where he should be playing and not forcing him into a position or line he is not up to playing on. I also believe that we will re-sign Stafford at a fairly reasonable contract. So, to sum up the forwards, I really think we are lacking some talent at the top. I would love to get a true 1st Line Center and Wing and I think that would allow this team to achieve its true potential. Do I think it will happen, no, but if this team truly wants to compete, I do think they need to get at least 1 of the 2. I think a 2nd line of Roy, Connolly, and Pominville would not only make up the best 2nd Line on this team, but it would be one of the very best in the entire league!!! While I like Roy at Center, I believe he is a better Wing. I also think you could get a solid Vet Center in here pretty cheap to hold down the 3rd Line. Finally, I would love to see that 4th Line. That line is definitely physical enough and I do think they have some offensive talent. So, I think that would be a perfect 4th Line. Based on the model above, I believe the following players are expendable: Mair, Ellis, and Peters Now, let's take a quick look at the Defense. While I believe that there will be some changes, I don't think it will be a major overhaul. I am a firm believe they Myers will get a great look this season and will be one of the top 6 all year. With returning Vets such as Rivet and Lydman, that leaves just 3 spots. Butler was solid pretty much all season and I believe he will definitely be in the mix. And, while he did have an up-and-down season, Sekera will be in the mix as well. I would like to see Spacek re-signed, but only at a reasonable rate. For now though, I will leave him off. I also don't want Tallinder back as I think we need to get better there. So, here is what we are looking at right now on Defense: RIVET - MYERS LYDMAN - - BUTLER and SEKERA will be in the mix and could be plugged into any of those 3 spots. I do think that the Sabres need a #1 D-Man and that should be one of the top priorities in the off-season. This would allow one of the Vets to be paired with a kid at all times, especially if Butler and Sekera get put into the lineup. If they stay as fixtures in the lineup like I think they will, the defense will probably look something like this: RIVET BUTLER (they were really good together last year) MEYERS TOP VET SEKERA LYDMAN PAETSCH I think that 1 solid VET and the addition of Meyers will be good enough. But, they definitely need at least 1 top guy. The goaltending is set with Miller. While I think that we could be better at backup, I don't see any changes there either. So, what does all of this mean and how do we get better with limited cap room? I guess that is the real question. Can we afford to go spend money on 2 Top Line players and a Top D-Man? Probably not. But I really think that if we want to be better and take the next step to contend for a Cup, we have to get 2 of those 3. In a perfect world where my lineup would be feasible, let's take a look at the salaries (CAP HIT) that would be involved: FORWARDS: VANEK: 7.143 ROY: 4.000 CONNOLLY: 4.500 POMINVILLE: 5.300 HECHT: 3.525 STAFFORD: 2.800 (could be slightly higher or lower depending on what he signs for) PAILLE: 1.125 GAUSTAD: 2.300 KALETA: 1.000 (give or take a little depending on what he signs for) TOTAL: 31.693 DEFENSE: RIVET: 3.500 MEYERS: 0.850 LYDMAN: 2.875 PAETSCH: 0.850 SEKERA: 1.000 (give or take a little depending on what he signs for) TOTAL: 9.075 GOALTENDING: MILLER: 6.250 LALIME: 1.000 TOTAL: 7.250 TOTAL PAYROLL OF MY IDEAL TEAM TO THIS POINT: 48.018 All of the other players that are currently signed on this roster (i.e. Tallinder, Mair, etc.), I do whatever I had to to cut their salaries. Trade for pucks if you have to, but just get rid of their salaries. As it is, I would love to see Hecht included in this, but I just don't see the Sabres being able to move his salary. But, we can hope. Since I can't see him getting moved, that is why he is included. With all that said, where are we? We are at 48 Million in Payroll. With the Cap set at 56.7 Million, that leaves us roughly 8 Million to go shopping with. Unfortunately, the hopes of getting 2 Top Line Players and a #1 D-Man are pretty much out of the question. They will have to probably pick 1 or 2 of the 3 missing positions and fill in the rest. So, what do we do now? Personally, I feel that getting a Top D-Man is the most important need. No matter who that is, we can expect a guy like that to cost about 4.5-5.5 (AT LEAST) So that only leaves about 3 Million to get ourselves another solid player. With the Sabres usually not spending anywhere near the Cap, it is unlikely that they will go after anymore than 1 player. Keeping that in mind and knowing how the Sabres usually operate, I think you will see a couple of kids up here for most of the season. Gerbe and Kennedy will probably get 3rd line responsibilities at some point. MacArthur will probably also be around to fill in as well. The problem is that I think the Sabres overpaid for too much average talent. While I like Pominville, to me, he is not a 5 million dollar hockey player. The same can be said about Hecht's contract and a couple others. They paid Pommer like a Top Line forward which I don't think he is and they paid Hecht like a 2nd Line player (he was, but now is between a 3rd and 4th liner). So, now it is taking some creativity to field a talented enough team to compete on a top level. So, after all is said and done, how would I put this team together this season realistically? Well, we will have to re-arrange some pieces to get pieces in place to make up for any lack of talent on the team. Here is what I would do initially to get a better look of the holes that can be realistically filled: VANEK CONNOLLY POMINVILLE - ROY STAFFORD HECHT GAUSTAD - PAILLE - KALETA Moving some pieces around still leave us holes at certain positions. We will have a couple of options here. The first is to play either Gerbe or Kennedy in one or 2 of those spots and play either MacArthur or a new forward (preferable a VET with a history of winning). You could follow the formula with a up-and-coming line like we had a couple years ago with Vanek, Roy, and Max (a kid line so to speak......our old 3rd line) and put Gerbe and Kennedy with another forward that can skate and hold down some defensive responsibilities and use that as a 3rd line. That wouldn't be all bad. That line, while very inexperienced, would be super fast with good offensive abilities and would not have to face top end talent being a 3rd line. That is definitely an option. Doing this would probably free up a little salary and we may be able to get a 1st or 2nd line player (i.e. Gionta) at around $3-$4 mill or so and still allow us to get a pretty good D-Man). Of course that may depend on being able to move somebody like Hecht depending on how the money fits. You would then be able to have some freedom to move Gaustad to either the 3rd or 4th line. Since this is my team, for argument sake, I am going to go out and get a player like Gionta (I will use his name, but it may or may not be him.....need someone for about 3 mill) and play the kids. So, my lineup will look like this: VANEK CONNOLLY POMINVILLE GIONTA ROY STAFFORD HECHT KENNEDY GERBE (could play Hecht at Center if necessary) PAILLE GAUSTAD KALETA While this may not be an ideal lineup (it still lacks some top talent), it is the best we can hope for with the money available. On defense, while I don't need a TOP level guy (like Jay-Bo), I would like to get a VERY SOLID player. I would love to be able to get a guy like Mike Komisarek. Hopefully, he would be able to be had for about 4.5 mill or so. He may get more than that, but that is where I would hope to get someone like that. For argument sake, I will plug him (his name), but if it can't be him, then someone as close to his talent level as we can get for that price range. So, my Defense would look like this: RIVET BUTLER MYERS KOMISAREK SEKERA LYDMAN PAETSCH In Goal: MILLER Using the numbers I have mentioned, our total payroll would be VERY CLOSE to the Cap. While I am committed to winning and the money makes no difference to me, the money does matter to the Sabres and they will not be spending to the Cap. So, even with the kids playing, they are really in a tough spot. Even if they are willing to spend a little money on a D-Man, they are still going to be up there in payroll and the roster will look very similar to what it has been the past few years. So, while many of us are really wanting to make over this team, due to the overspending that they have done on some players, they have made it almost impossible to really make any drastic changes. In order to make themselves better, they will have to spend to the Cap and I just don't see that happening. At the beginning of this post, I mentioned that I wanted to thoroughly examine our roster and what the options are to make us better. So, what's the verdict? Well, it isn't good. While there is some money to make some improvements, drastic changes are just not possible without moving something out (i.e Hecht, Tallinder, etc.) unless the Sabres use my basic formula and spend right to the Cap. They won't do this. They won?t want to even be close to the Cap, let alone spend to it. So, instead of seeing guys like Gionta and Komisarek being brought in, you will probably see McArthur and Spacek brought back. And what will that do? Basically give us the same roster as we had last season. Hmmmmmm......... Oh well, I hold out hope that they will be able to move some money off this team. After the draft if there are any notable trades with the Sabres), we will revisit this and make any necessary adjustments. I hope the Sabres fair better than I did during their evaluation! We are in a tough spot with the team we have. We don?t have a lot of options as I see it right now. Oh well. Hopefully we will see something soon (maybe the draft) where some pieces are moved and we can get a better idea of what the options are. LET'S GO BUFFALO!!!!!!!
thesportsbuff Posted June 19, 2009 Report Posted June 19, 2009 holy sh*t give me bout a week to read this, response coming soon.
sven233 Posted June 19, 2009 Author Report Posted June 19, 2009 holy sh*t give me bout a week to read this, response coming soon. HA! yeah, I told everyone it was going to be long! HA!!!!!!
Eleven Posted June 19, 2009 Report Posted June 19, 2009 Hey. I really didn't read through it all, I only had a few hours. But I don't think guys like Paille and MacArthur are "third line talent." I don't think they make the roster on most teams, actually. (Maybe Paille does; the kid can check.) Only more so for guys like Peters, Ellis, and Paetsch--and I actually like Ellis's effort--but these guys just are not NHL caliber players.
wonderbread Posted June 19, 2009 Report Posted June 19, 2009 and the 2009 Longest Post of the Year 1st place winner is.......... Sven233!!! (applause ensues) Congratulations Goo post imo. The Sabres major problem is they committed to the "wrong" talent for mid to upper level $$. Hecht, Tallinder, Pominville all had off years. If they get it back together they could be better for sure. But I don't see it happening, everyone was crying for DR to keep the players here and he got rooked by a few players for big money. Eleven thats what happens whe you pay to much for your talent at the "top" the bottom falls out.
sven233 Posted June 19, 2009 Author Report Posted June 19, 2009 Hey. I really didn't read through it all, I only had a few hours. But I don't think guys like Paille and MacArthur are "third line talent." I don't think they make the roster on most teams, actually. (Maybe Paille does; the kid can check.) Only more so for guys like Peters, Ellis, and Paetsch--and I actually like Ellis's effort--but these guys just are not NHL caliber players. I actually agree with you. That is why i have Paille on my 4th line. I think he may be good enough to play on the 3rd line someday (he does so some talent. Also, if you notice, in none of my lineups do you see MacArthur. If it were up to me, he would not be on the team. I just don't think he is good enough either. So yeah, I agree with you. I don't think MacArthur is good enough, but I would play Paille on the 4th line. I do believe he would be great there. The problem is that the coaching staff uses him wrong most of the time and they try to jam him in on the 2nd or 3rd Lines. He is best suited on the 4th line. Bottom line is that the Sabres committed too much money to AVERAGE talent and not enough to top tier guys (and no, I am not talking about Briere and Drury). I think they should have gone out and got at least one more legit star to compliment Vanek.
SDS Posted June 19, 2009 Report Posted June 19, 2009 When your 1st round draft choice projects to the 4th line.... you've chosen... poorly.
wonderbread Posted June 19, 2009 Report Posted June 19, 2009 When your 1st round draft choice projects to the 4th line.... you've chosen... poorly. well put. Paille doesn't have to be a world beater he just has to be...better.
red Posted June 19, 2009 Report Posted June 19, 2009 When your 1st round draft choice projects to the 4th line.... you've chosen... poorly. just wondering, was Paille one of those VIDEO SCOUTING gems?
jimiVbaby Posted June 19, 2009 Report Posted June 19, 2009 just wondering, was Paille one of those VIDEO SCOUTING gems? No, but Tyler Myers was.
inkman Posted June 19, 2009 Report Posted June 19, 2009 No, but Tyler Myers was. That's not a convincing argument.
X. Benedict Posted June 19, 2009 Report Posted June 19, 2009 just wondering, was Paille one of those VIDEO SCOUTING gems? Actually at the spot he was taken it is hard to say Paille was a miss. Rounds in the NHL draft are a little misleading.... First round should be 1-15 Second round should be 16-50 Third round should be 51-100 100 + is like playing Keno. The Sabres at that spot only really passed Jarret Stoll and Cam Ward about ......and took the captain of the Canadian World Juniors. He's underachieved but he's on a NHL roster.
X. Benedict Posted June 19, 2009 Report Posted June 19, 2009 No, but Tyler Myers was. Everybody knows the top 100 players. The popular choice where they were sitting last year was to stay put and take Sbisa. Who Philly took and has already played half an NHL season. He looks a lot like Sekera.
shrader Posted June 19, 2009 Report Posted June 19, 2009 Everybody knows the top 100 players. The popular choice where they were sitting last year was to stay put and take Sbisa.Who Philly took and has already played half an NHL season. He looks a lot like Sekera. The earlier comment is a great example of the whining mentality among so many Buffalo fans. They've found something to complain about, but then the facts start to get exaggerated very quickly. The Sabres made the switch in 2006, so it's safe to say that Zagrapan was a product of that system. Then it gets stretched a little bit further to Barret Heisten. Eventually we'll find out that Gilbert Perreault was a product of video scouting... oh wait, that would be a good thing. And wow does that 2002 1st round look pretty weak as a whole. The Sabres did pretty well with their first pick, I just wish Ballard had been able to stay in the organization. They'd made that trade every single time if they could go back and re-visit those days though.
buffalonian Posted June 19, 2009 Report Posted June 19, 2009 Roy and Pominville both averaging around 70 pts per season for the last three years can easily be seen as 1st line talent IMO
shrader Posted June 19, 2009 Report Posted June 19, 2009 Roy and Pominville both averaging around 70 pts per season for the last three years can easily be seen as 1st line talent IMO I think a decent question would be who exactly in this league is first line talent. There can't be 90 players in the league who fit sven's criteria.
SDS Posted June 19, 2009 Report Posted June 19, 2009 I think a decent question would be who exactly in this league is first line talent. There can't be 90 players in the league who fit sven's criteria. Are there 30 teams that are legitimate contenders?
shrader Posted June 19, 2009 Report Posted June 19, 2009 Are there 30 teams that are legitimate contenders? Good point. It's easy to miss a word here or there in that post. :D i'm not sold on the fact that we had all that much more first line talent when we were contenders. I'd call it a roster full of 2nd liners, which I guess would fall close to the top end talent sven was talking about.
sven233 Posted June 19, 2009 Author Report Posted June 19, 2009 Keep in mind what I was saying guys........ I was trying to take a look at the roster objectively and evaluate the talent we have and what is keeping us from being Cup contenders. The fact is that if you take a look at the dominant teams in this league and the teams that have been going deep into the Playoffs, have better TOP END talent than we do. So, while I agree that Roy, Connolly, and Pominville have a lot of talent, they are not as good as the Top players on the Cup winning teams of the past few years. Can they play on our first line and can we get away with that while still trying to contend for a Cup? I am not sure. But yeah.....I know my original post was long and some of it may have been confusing, but the bottom line is that I really think outside of Vanek, our Top line talent is lacking compared to other teams. I really think we need at least 1 more IMPACT player up front to become legit contenders. I do love the depth that Roy, Connolly, and Pommer give us though. We just need 1 more big piece.
wjag Posted June 20, 2009 Report Posted June 20, 2009 Interesting post.. More succintly.. TDS.. as in too damn small.. They can't take the pounding of 100 games...
VansTheMans Posted June 20, 2009 Report Posted June 20, 2009 Well, it is definitely a slow time for all of us hockey fans right now, however, we are quickly approaching an exciting time of year. Before we head into next season, I want to take an objective look at our roster and see where we are all set and where we need to improve to have a legit chance to win the Cup next season. Unfortunately, at least in my eyes, we are lacking in many important areas. Please keep in mind that this is a VERY LONG and VERY DETAILED post. I am sorry for the length, but it is a slow time of year and I just wanted to thoroughly go through and evaluate the roster in many ways. So, the post is VERY LONG. I apologize in advance! After looking at the roster, what it all comes down to is that we have an overall lack of top end talent on this team (I know, I am stating the obvious). However, we do have a lot of pieces in place for a solid supporting cast. The problem is that for the past few years (and it looks like they will be doing the same thing this year) the organization has been trying to take 2nd and 3rd line talent and make them into Top Line players. Taking a look at the current roster, in my opinion, we only have 1 legit Top Line Player in Vanek. I really think that the rest of the players on this team fall into a 2nd Line or lower category. While players like Roy, Connolly, and Pominville do show flashes at times of being Top Line talent, I really feel they are all better suited on the 2nd Line. In fact, I truly believe that those players would make the perfect 2nd Line. I like Roy at center, but I think sliding him back to Wing would be the best thing for this team. So, with all that said, let's take a look at the roster and see who falls where: 1ST LINE TALENT: Vanek 2ND LINE TALENT: Roy Connolly Pominville Stafford (I think is between a 2nd and 3rd line talent at this point and I think he will be re-signed) 3RD LINE TALENT: Hecht MacArthur Paille (Between a 3rd and 4th line talent. I would like him better on a 4th line.....see below) Gaustad (Between a 3rd and 4th line talent. I would like him better on a 4th line.....see below) 4TH LINE TALENT: Kaleta Mair Ellis Peters (We know that Kaleta will be back, but who knows about the others.) So, that is a look at the forwards based on what I believe are the actual talent levels of the players, not where I think they will be played this season. However, the purpose of this post is to find a way to make this team better and be good enough to win the Cup this season as well as finding out what is missing. Using the players and their talent levels alone (not factoring in anything else) here is how I see the team in terms of talent level breaking down: VANEK - - ROY CONNOLLY POMINVILLE HECHT - STAFFORD PAILLE GAUSTAD KALETA The lineup above is obviously missing a few players that I had listed in the current talent level breakdown, but that goes along with much of the problem I have with this team's makeup right now. We just have too many guys that may be good enough to play on a 3rd or 4th line, but not enough upper tier guys. Sure, you could plug guys in like MacArthur and move Hecht back to Center on the 3rd line, but I don't like Hecht at Center at all. He is much better on the wing. And, regardless of what the coaching staff thinks, he is no better than a 3rd Line player. I would definitely be open to moving him, but I just don't see it happening. That is why I included him in the lineup. But, I am playing him where he should be playing and not forcing him into a position or line he is not up to playing on. I also believe that we will re-sign Stafford at a fairly reasonable contract. So, to sum up the forwards, I really think we are lacking some talent at the top. I would love to get a true 1st Line Center and Wing and I think that would allow this team to achieve its true potential. Do I think it will happen, no, but if this team truly wants to compete, I do think they need to get at least 1 of the 2. I think a 2nd line of Roy, Connolly, and Pominville would not only make up the best 2nd Line on this team, but it would be one of the very best in the entire league!!! While I like Roy at Center, I believe he is a better Wing. I also think you could get a solid Vet Center in here pretty cheap to hold down the 3rd Line. Finally, I would love to see that 4th Line. That line is definitely physical enough and I do think they have some offensive talent. So, I think that would be a perfect 4th Line. Based on the model above, I believe the following players are expendable: Mair, Ellis, and Peters Now, let's take a quick look at the Defense. While I believe that there will be some changes, I don't think it will be a major overhaul. I am a firm believe they Myers will get a great look this season and will be one of the top 6 all year. With returning Vets such as Rivet and Lydman, that leaves just 3 spots. Butler was solid pretty much all season and I believe he will definitely be in the mix. And, while he did have an up-and-down season, Sekera will be in the mix as well. I would like to see Spacek re-signed, but only at a reasonable rate. For now though, I will leave him off. I also don't want Tallinder back as I think we need to get better there. So, here is what we are looking at right now on Defense: RIVET - MYERS LYDMAN - - BUTLER and SEKERA will be in the mix and could be plugged into any of those 3 spots. I do think that the Sabres need a #1 D-Man and that should be one of the top priorities in the off-season. This would allow one of the Vets to be paired with a kid at all times, especially if Butler and Sekera get put into the lineup. If they stay as fixtures in the lineup like I think they will, the defense will probably look something like this: RIVET BUTLER (they were really good together last year) MEYERS TOP VET SEKERA LYDMAN PAETSCH I think that 1 solid VET and the addition of Meyers will be good enough. But, they definitely need at least 1 top guy. The goaltending is set with Miller. While I think that we could be better at backup, I don't see any changes there either. So, what does all of this mean and how do we get better with limited cap room? I guess that is the real question. Can we afford to go spend money on 2 Top Line players and a Top D-Man? Probably not. But I really think that if we want to be better and take the next step to contend for a Cup, we have to get 2 of those 3. In a perfect world where my lineup would be feasible, let's take a look at the salaries (CAP HIT) that would be involved: FORWARDS: VANEK: 7.143 ROY: 4.000 CONNOLLY: 4.500 POMINVILLE: 5.300 HECHT: 3.525 STAFFORD: 2.800 (could be slightly higher or lower depending on what he signs for) PAILLE: 1.125 GAUSTAD: 2.300 KALETA: 1.000 (give or take a little depending on what he signs for) TOTAL: 31.693 DEFENSE: RIVET: 3.500 MEYERS: 0.850 LYDMAN: 2.875 PAETSCH: 0.850 SEKERA: 1.000 (give or take a little depending on what he signs for) TOTAL: 9.075 GOALTENDING: MILLER: 6.250 LALIME: 1.000 TOTAL: 7.250 TOTAL PAYROLL OF MY IDEAL TEAM TO THIS POINT: 48.018 All of the other players that are currently signed on this roster (i.e. Tallinder, Mair, etc.), I do whatever I had to to cut their salaries. Trade for pucks if you have to, but just get rid of their salaries. As it is, I would love to see Hecht included in this, but I just don't see the Sabres being able to move his salary. But, we can hope. Since I can't see him getting moved, that is why he is included. With all that said, where are we? We are at 48 Million in Payroll. With the Cap set at 56.7 Million, that leaves us roughly 8 Million to go shopping with. Unfortunately, the hopes of getting 2 Top Line Players and a #1 D-Man are pretty much out of the question. They will have to probably pick 1 or 2 of the 3 missing positions and fill in the rest. So, what do we do now? Personally, I feel that getting a Top D-Man is the most important need. No matter who that is, we can expect a guy like that to cost about 4.5-5.5 (AT LEAST) So that only leaves about 3 Million to get ourselves another solid player. With the Sabres usually not spending anywhere near the Cap, it is unlikely that they will go after anymore than 1 player. Keeping that in mind and knowing how the Sabres usually operate, I think you will see a couple of kids up here for most of the season. Gerbe and Kennedy will probably get 3rd line responsibilities at some point. MacArthur will probably also be around to fill in as well. The problem is that I think the Sabres overpaid for too much average talent. While I like Pominville, to me, he is not a 5 million dollar hockey player. The same can be said about Hecht's contract and a couple others. They paid Pommer like a Top Line forward which I don't think he is and they paid Hecht like a 2nd Line player (he was, but now is between a 3rd and 4th liner). So, now it is taking some creativity to field a talented enough team to compete on a top level. So, after all is said and done, how would I put this team together this season realistically? Well, we will have to re-arrange some pieces to get pieces in place to make up for any lack of talent on the team. Here is what I would do initially to get a better look of the holes that can be realistically filled: VANEK CONNOLLY POMINVILLE - ROY STAFFORD HECHT GAUSTAD - PAILLE - KALETA Moving some pieces around still leave us holes at certain positions. We will have a couple of options here. The first is to play either Gerbe or Kennedy in one or 2 of those spots and play either MacArthur or a new forward (preferable a VET with a history of winning). You could follow the formula with a up-and-coming line like we had a couple years ago with Vanek, Roy, and Max (a kid line so to speak......our old 3rd line) and put Gerbe and Kennedy with another forward that can skate and hold down some defensive responsibilities and use that as a 3rd line. That wouldn't be all bad. That line, while very inexperienced, would be super fast with good offensive abilities and would not have to face top end talent being a 3rd line. That is definitely an option. Doing this would probably free up a little salary and we may be able to get a 1st or 2nd line player (i.e. Gionta) at around $3-$4 mill or so and still allow us to get a pretty good D-Man). Of course that may depend on being able to move somebody like Hecht depending on how the money fits. You would then be able to have some freedom to move Gaustad to either the 3rd or 4th line. Since this is my team, for argument sake, I am going to go out and get a player like Gionta (I will use his name, but it may or may not be him.....need someone for about 3 mill) and play the kids. So, my lineup will look like this: VANEK CONNOLLY POMINVILLE GIONTA ROY STAFFORD HECHT KENNEDY GERBE (could play Hecht at Center if necessary) PAILLE GAUSTAD KALETA While this may not be an ideal lineup (it still lacks some top talent), it is the best we can hope for with the money available. On defense, while I don't need a TOP level guy (like Jay-Bo), I would like to get a VERY SOLID player. I would love to be able to get a guy like Mike Komisarek. Hopefully, he would be able to be had for about 4.5 mill or so. He may get more than that, but that is where I would hope to get someone like that. For argument sake, I will plug him (his name), but if it can't be him, then someone as close to his talent level as we can get for that price range. So, my Defense would look like this: RIVET BUTLER MYERS KOMISAREK SEKERA LYDMAN PAETSCH In Goal: MILLER Using the numbers I have mentioned, our total payroll would be VERY CLOSE to the Cap. While I am committed to winning and the money makes no difference to me, the money does matter to the Sabres and they will not be spending to the Cap. So, even with the kids playing, they are really in a tough spot. Even if they are willing to spend a little money on a D-Man, they are still going to be up there in payroll and the roster will look very similar to what it has been the past few years. So, while many of us are really wanting to make over this team, due to the overspending that they have done on some players, they have made it almost impossible to really make any drastic changes. In order to make themselves better, they will have to spend to the Cap and I just don't see that happening. At the beginning of this post, I mentioned that I wanted to thoroughly examine our roster and what the options are to make us better. So, what's the verdict? Well, it isn't good. While there is some money to make some improvements, drastic changes are just not possible without moving something out (i.e Hecht, Tallinder, etc.) unless the Sabres use my basic formula and spend right to the Cap. They won't do this. They won?t want to even be close to the Cap, let alone spend to it. So, instead of seeing guys like Gionta and Komisarek being brought in, you will probably see McArthur and Spacek brought back. And what will that do? Basically give us the same roster as we had last season. Hmmmmmm......... Oh well, I hold out hope that they will be able to move some money off this team. After the draft if there are any notable trades with the Sabres), we will revisit this and make any necessary adjustments. I hope the Sabres fair better than I did during their evaluation! We are in a tough spot with the team we have. We don?t have a lot of options as I see it right now. Oh well. Hopefully we will see something soon (maybe the draft) where some pieces are moved and we can get a better idea of what the options are. LET'S GO BUFFALO!!!!!!! Excellent, well thought out post. I enjoyed reading your predictions about the offensive lines; they were very rational and realistic. I agree that the Sabres realistically need at least one solid vet dman, and one solid forward to solidify their line up. As you said though, the Sabres wont spend to the cap, which will make things quite difficult.
Stoner Posted June 20, 2009 Report Posted June 20, 2009 FWIW, Brian Burke was on the Hodge Stove League on NHLN last night, probably a rerun, I don't know. He said trades are almost impossible to make in the NHL these days because of the salary cap. He was asked if he was disappointed that he didn't do enough to change the Leafs roster in season, and he said yeah, but he didn't see any teams around him getting better either.
bob_sauve28 Posted June 21, 2009 Report Posted June 21, 2009 Excellent, well thought out post. I enjoyed reading your predictions about the offensive lines; they were very rational and realistic. I agree that the Sabres realistically need at least one solid vet dman, and one solid forward to solidify their line up. As you said though, the Sabres wont spend to the cap, which will make things quite difficult. Until we add a defenseman that can match up at least decently against Spezza's line, or a checking center that can help out against players like that, we are doomed to mediocrity
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