That Aud Smell Posted March 20, 2009 Report Posted March 20, 2009 That's what I said. sorry - missed it. :oops: (but i can be forgiven for glossing over posts in this thread, no? ;) )
SwampD Posted March 20, 2009 Report Posted March 20, 2009 sorry - missed it. :oops: (but i can be forgiven for glossing over posts in this thread, no? ;) ) This has to be the fewest number of posts to get to four pages.
G.M. Posted March 20, 2009 Author Report Posted March 20, 2009 1)Whenever I think of the Sabres, I think about how lucky the City of Buffalo is to even have a team. After the Riga problems, and in light of the City's depressed economy, lack of television revenue, and failure to have a corporate cash flow of any significance or stability (other than HSBC, M&T and few mom-and-pop insurance companies) the team really could have left. As such, and in general, one should be happy to have a club. I don't see much difference between downtown Buffalo or downtown Winnepeg, if you get my drift... 2) As far as stockpiling /sandbaging picks, let me give you a history lesson. Scott Bowman, many many years ago, did exactly what you suggest. Here, he traded the entire team away for: 1982: 1st round picks: Housely, Cyr, Andreychuk (3) 2nd round picks: Anderson, Jens Johansson (2) 1983: 1st rounds picks: Barrasso, Lacombe, Creighton (3) 2nd round picks: Hajdu, Tucker (2) Along with this core, he added even more picks he squirled away. He then added a few veteran spare parts to this mix. It was a COMPLETE failure. Other than Barasso, Housely and Andreychuk, the youth movement was not affective. And these were blue-chip prospects, with all the pedigree one would want in a top pick. Paul Cyr, drafted #9 overall, was supposed to be the next Mike Bossy. Creighton (I think he was 11th overall?) was 6'5 and came from a terrific Ottawa 67s team where he scored 40 goals twice. The point? Sometimes this stategy does not work. And for a laugh, and it is a germane example even though it is a different sport, look at Mike Ditka who dealt his entire team for RB Ricky Williams -- who was/is pretty terrible. While the above are extreme examples of stockpiling NOT working, I would agree with you that some teams are successful in performing it. I agree that the Pens did it to secure Staal, Croz, Fluery, Malkin. The Capitals did it a few seasons ago and now have 6 ALL STARS. And there is little doubt that the 1988-89 Flames did it. On the other hand, there have been plenty of teams that have won the Cup with a nice mixture -- not always loaded with top blue-chip talent. That conversation on this could go on and on... The requisite for me, for a Cup team, is to have a 1) top draft pick at Center (a leader, good on draws, physical, at least 6'4, hard to injure, determined, good skater, will drive and crash the net); 2) a solid netminder (just consistant and calm with good mechanics (see Cam Ward; Chris Osgood; Ed Belfour)); 3) top defender who can kill penalties and play the PP (Chara; Pronger; Chelios (15 yrs ago); Al MacInnis; Scott Stevens; Nick Lindstrom, etc); 4) pure goal scorer (Glenn Anderson; Hull; Kurri; Shannahan; Hejduk; Verbeek; Kevin Stevens; St Louis; Joe Mullen, etc); and 5) a checking line that is fast, clever, can draw penalties, WORKS TOGETHER AS A THREE MAN UNIT, agitates, and adds timely goals (Detroit (Maltby, McCarty, Draper), Oilers (McSorely, Mark Hunter, Mac T); Rangers (Mateau, Mac T, Tikkanen); Avs (Simon, Yelle, Klemm), 93 Habs (Carbonneau, Keane, Benny Brunet), Stars (Carbonneau, Keane, Dave Reid). These clubs, MUST have veteran leadership and size up the middle. They have to have depth and have to have TWO lines that can contribute. Veteran players are savvy, are often more mature, have families, have been traded before and know how to make little plays in tight or close games. They also reflect on the history and pride in the game -- and get emotional every March. The current Sabres roster is filled with a bunch of rich kids. They all grew up together in Rochester, and go paid BIG bucks. Lots of nice cars in the parking lot of HSBC. But they are not warriors or hardchargers. They are soft and have been babied by Ruff. They are governed by the mother hen -- Hecht and Nummenen (two euros who have never won anything in their lives). Finally Rivet was brought in for support -- but while he aint over the hill, he is on the wrong side of the crest. So, life goes on G.M. You have a team to watch -- that needs a makeover. But a Cup team can be built any given season -- just look at the Peca drivin team that almost beat a FAR SUPERIOR Dallas club. Congratulations on an excellent and well written post. :) I mentioned many things in my original post. Hmm, where to start? What was the main idea in my original post? I try to establish the following points. 1. Some of the teams sandbagged. 2. Some of the teams were basically purchased through free agency 3. Some teams built by trading for first overall talent or very low picks in the draft. 4. others You said, ? While the above are extreme examples of stockpiling NOT working, I would agree with you that some teams are successful in performing it.? I'm glad that you verified my work and agree with at least some; so let us take a closer look at that some now? "Detroit(3), Pittsburgh(2), the Islanders(4), Tampa bay(1), Philadelphia(2), and Colorado(3) that?s 15 cups by sandbagging Montreal 6 cups by acquiring talent in the top 5. So out of 38 championships since 1970 20/38 were created by picking low in the draft and stockpiling the best talent in the draft. That?s more than 50 percent. 15/38 created by being lousy then drafting low picks. Additionally those teams were so strong then they were repeat champions!!! " Now I don?t believe that statistics are not an end in and of itself but if you?re reasonable then you must conclude that there is something to this. Your understanding of what would be an ideal team is excellent, so how do you go about it? That is the question? How would one do it? What options are actually open to the Sabres? Buffalo most likely will not swindle the picks from teams because I believe that most are wise to this. They will not trade for such players because they would have to trade equal value and that does not get them any closer. The only time teams give away top talent is for a salary dump, and such players don?t head to Buffalo! Therefore the only reasonable way to get such talent is to sandbag. Make sense? Thanks for the history lesson. However, I remember that team and it is quite understandable why Scotty did what he did. Scotty saw the plan work in Montreal. Because it did not work is not a reflection on the plan it is a matter of statistics. Not every number 1 pick goes onto greatness, granted. Another fascinating statistic is how many times the top player in the league at his, position go on to win cups. Just having one of those increases your odds dramatically. Muckler, probably the best GM in the game almost accomplished it with Ottawa and Buffalo. So history lesson continued. Of the team you mentioned, Housely for Dale Hawerchuk, Turgeon for Lafontaine, Andreychuck for Grant Fuhr add Huddy, Muni... Here is an example of a GM knowing the pieces of the puzzle and putting together a winner. Lafontaine blows out his knee and Molgilny breaks his ankle on the same play. Fuhr is injured VS Boston. Sabres take Montreal to overtime and lose, Montreal goes on and? I have no doubt that this team would have prevailed against Montreal but for the injuries however we will never know. If sandbagging works then why don?t all teams do it? Simple answer, I believe most financial and economic advisers advise teams regarding their payroll VS playoff success, where most teams make their money? The idea is that most fans and radio personalities seem to have this belief that if they could just get in the playoffs they just might have a chance? Yes, OK, the probability is non-zero so yes, they have a chance, however there is a non-zero probability that if you take your next breath all the Oxygen molecules will be on the other side of the room and you suffocate! The pressure to win is enormous and keep people coming to the arena. The idea of trading away everything and really rebuilding is a scary proposition. I would imagine that the same conversations about: line combinations, winning streaks, losing streaks, heart etc are going on in all the other .500 hockey teams messages boards, the sad reality is that these people are just kidding themselves that if their team gets in they have a chance. If a last seed or close to last ever gets to the finals it never wins. If there is it is a statistical hiccup. BTW your point about Mike Peca, leading the oilers is a good one, one of the best defensive centers in recent years who is a winner and has been to the finals twice now. Take a look at that Edmonton Oiler roster and their supporting cast of ?infrastructure? players and defenseman and then the fact that Edmonton was successful as a playoff team is not so surprising. I would rather go for the strategy that has produced the highest probability of winners. I have ideas about how buffalo could do this even in a small market; more posts to come. Again, thanks for the post, I am happy to see that people are actually looking at the data instead of contending that I have no clue without actually trying to refute it. :thumbsup:
G.M. Posted March 20, 2009 Author Report Posted March 20, 2009 i loved that part right there.because this just never gets old, for me. <object width="425" height="344"><param name="movie" value=" name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"></param><embed src=" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="425" height="344"></embed></object> GM = The Brain? just a thought. there are similarities there. both have a good amount going on upstairs, both have a fair amount of wheat embedded in their considerable chaff, both show clear signs of interwebs-induced megalomania. i will add this tidbit: imo, any hockey fan worth his or her salt would acknowledge that the process of building a stanley cup winner is partly a result of magic, divine intervention, call it what you will. :wallbash: Are you for real? Vegas is happy that you are not the one setting the odds? Its all math you are just kidding yourself.
SwampD Posted March 20, 2009 Report Posted March 20, 2009 Again, thanks for the post, I am happy to see that people are actually looking at the data instead of contending that I have no clue without actually trying to refute it. We're not telling you that you have no clue. We're telling you that you are not telling us anything we don't already know. There is no deep incite into what you've written. Pittsburgh sandbagged?----what a shock! Jersey had a great defensemen?-----who knew? We can all look back and see the formula and say "that is why it worked". Hell, after a big storm there are plenty of weathermen that tell us all the conditions that made the storm possible. It doesn't mean they can tell us if it going to rain tomorrow. If your data is so precious, then just tell us. Who will win the SC this year? As for you responding to Lethbridge, I can't tell if that's a real conversation between two people about hockey... or if I'm watching Norman Bates talk to his mother.
G.M. Posted March 20, 2009 Author Report Posted March 20, 2009 I lived in Detroit for a while and followed the Wings in the 90s when they came up. When I got to Detroit, the Red Wings were just another struggling team. What gave them that extra edge? The Euro connection. Back the 90s, they had the Russian 5 (Federov, Larionov, Fetisov & Konstantinov & Kozlov). They had a whole line, O + D from Russia. When some of those guys came over, it was still Soviet Russia and they came at great risk and sacrifice. Politically they were risky but they were proven stars in Russia, the cream of the crop. The Red Wings got 1/4 of their team for free, basically. Federov got a little more expensive after he got the MVP, but for how effective that lineup was, they were dirt cheap. That team's leader was indisputably Yzerman, and they provided him with a pretty good supporting cast in addition to the Russian 5. But eventually, they whole crew moved on or retired. But the Red Wing dynasty didn't end there. How did they maintain excellence even after losing all that talent? Well, they kept Lidstrom, arguably the best NHL defenseman over the last two decades and had the sense to give him the C. (That wasn't such a slam dunk; when the team started to come apart he stated his intent to return to Sweden to raise his family.) But one D-man does not a team make. Where did they get their current star power? Again, Europe: Lidstrom, plus Datsyuk, Filppula, Franzen, Holmstrom, Hudler, Kopecky, Zetterberg, Ericsson & Kronwall were ALL drafted by the Red Wings out of Europe and came up through their farm system, many of them as late round picks (Datsyuk was 171st in 1998, Zetterberg was 210th in 1999!) No, not everyone that comes out of Europe is good. But Detroit has done an amazing job of scouting Europe. From what I have read, they scout over there more than any other NHL team. I think the Sabres need to step up their presence in scouting the Euro market. It's not the wildcard it was for the Red Wings 15-20 years ago, but there are still great players coming out of there. The Sabres have had some decent European prospects but they never quite gelled (we all know I'm talking about Max in particular), but look at the rest of the offensive roster- the only other Euro players are Hecht and Vanek (who was drafted out of the U.S. college system). Considering the Sabres are a small-market, budget-minded team, bringing European players over makes sense. Just making it to the NHL is enough of an incentive that, at least early in their careers, they will work for a little less than top prospects from North America. Leave them in Portland a little longer to learn the U.S. game, and when they do come up they are that much more mature. Because the European game is different than the NHL, exposing them to both systems can result in amazingly creative players. I include Max in that statement, although he doesn't finish his plays as often or as well as he should. Give him two Euro-style linemates and I bet he is a much, much better player. I know it's popular to see the Sabres recent slide and write the team off, but I am more of a "glass is half full" guy. I think the Sabres are maybe two or three players away from being a strong contender again. I think if they had managed to keep Drury they wouldn't have missed a beat, but that train has left. Bring in some of the best Europe has to offer for the future, bring in a few gritty leaders to play offense, maybe bring in a star, and this team is knockin' at the door and ready to barge through. Unfortunately for Buffalo what you say is not true. From my study... Keith Primeau Selected by Detroit Red Wings round 1 #3 overall 1990 NHL Entry Draft Steve Yzerman Selected by Detroit Red Wings round 1 #4 overall 1983 NHL Entry Draft Paul Coffey Selected by Edmonton Oilers round 1 #6 overall 1980 NHL Entry Draft Brendan Shanahan Selected by New Jersey Devils round 1 #2 overall 1987 NHL Entry Draft Martin Lapointe Selected by Detroit Red Wings round 1 #10 overall 1991 NHL Entry Draft Larry Murphy Selected by Los Angeles Kings round 1 #4 overall 1980 NHL Entry Draft "When I got to Detroit, the Red Wings were just another struggling team." AKA Sandbagging Pavel Datsyuk Selected by Detroit Red Wings round 6 #171 overall 1998 NHL Entry Draft Henrik Zetterberg Selected by Detroit Red Wings round 7 #210 overall 1999 NHL Entry Draft Johan Franzen Selected by Detroit Red Wings round 3 #97 overall 2004 NHL Entry Draft You would like to believe that the wings have a special Euro connection however if they had the above players why not draft right away instead of being passing them over a total of 13 times before Detroit finally decided to draft them(the players listed above)? The earlier Russians were already world class players and a real no brainer. Truth is they got their core by sandbagging. :D
G.M. Posted March 20, 2009 Author Report Posted March 20, 2009 That's what I said. megalomania? Then the last thing you should do is respond to my posts! A glutton for punishment! :wallbash: :thumbdown: :wallbash: :thumbdown: :wallbash: :worthy: GO! :worthy: G.M. :worthy: GO! :worthy:
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