Connolly extension?

[deluca67]

Some of you folks kill me: "...trade for a #1 center". Oh sure, lots of teams giving those away...."Sign Connolly for $1-1.5 mil, maybe". Yea, for sure he'll do that. Connolly is a bona fide #1 center, and will command major $ when he hits the market. He missed 3 games in his first 4 years in the league. Of course he has been injured A LOT recently, and of course everybody is frustrated by that. And, despite De Luca's as usual rediculous assertion that he's "getting healthy 'cuz it's contract time", he IS finally healthy, and makes this team FAR better when he's in the lineup. He will get at least $5 mil per season from somebody, and prolly more (remember- Drury, Briere, Vanek and Scott-friggin-Gomez all make $7 mil). Broduer has missed all of this season- does that make him worth less $ when he returns? Let's assume for a second that his injuries are behind him. Wouldn't you want him on your team? SOMEBODY will take a chance on Connolly, and he won't be signing for less than #1 center money. I hope he's playing here next year, 'cuz he is an extremely talented player; one who makes those around him better (see Mair's goal the other night).

:lol: :lol: :lol:

 

What is the record for most silliness contained in one post. I think you broke the record.

 

A) Broduer is a Hall Of Fame goalie with a long track record of excellence. Connolly has a career high of 16 goals in a season.

B) "Drury, Briere, Vanek and Scott-friggin-Gomez all make $7 mil" They have all also been able to complete full seasons with great numbers. Connolly's next full season with great numbers will be his first.

C) Assuming Connolly's injuries are behind him has already cost the Sabre $9 million dollars they can't get back and have gotten little in return.

D) No team is going to risk $5 million per year for a player that can't stay on the ice. In these economic times? Look at how many quality free agents are still jobless in baseball. You don't think the NHL won't face the same financial difficulties?

 

It would be great for the Sabres if Connolly could stay healthy and play at a high level for an entire season. He should have to prove he can before the Sabres cripple themselves with another huge contract.

 

Connolly has yet to prove he can withstand the grind of a full NHL season. He's doing great right now while his legs are fresh and the rest of the league is feeling the grind of 50+ games. Let's see Connolly tough out the rest of the season. Games should be getting more intense and more physical with so many teams battling for the playoffs. Let's see Timmy make it through 42 games before he gets signed for 240+ more guaranteed.

[K-9]

...Connolly has yet to prove he can withstand the grind of a full NHL season...

 

No need to quibble on the rest of your post but unless the years '99-'00 through '02-'03 didn't exist, then Connolly has not only shown he can withstand the rigors of an NHL season but FOUR of them to boot.

 

Sometimes facts clouded by intractable opinion don't mix well.

 

By the way, how are you doing in the Connolly's Next Injury pool? Did you take the over or under?

 

GO SABRES!!!

[carpandean]

Some of you folks kill me: "...trade for a #1 center".

Most realistic posters have said a #2 or just a "top two" or "scoring line" center. While #1's are occasionally traded, it's not the norm. However, #2's are, especially when a team has depth at center that is pressing to play (for example, were we not a cup-favorite in 2006-07, we would likely have traded Briere and let Roy move up into a top-two spot. That was basically the plan going into 2007-08 until the Drury negotiations were messed up.)

Oh sure, lots of teams giving those away...."Sign Connolly for $1-1.5 mil, maybe". Yea, for sure he'll do that.

Probably not, but that doesn't mean that we should offer him more now.

 

He missed 3 games in his first 4 years in the league. Of course he has been injured A LOT recently, and of course everybody is frustrated by that.

His last healthy season was five years ago. I'll put more weight on the three recent unhealthy seasons.

 

he IS finally healthy

14 GAMES! 14! That's just one more than he played to start last season. Sorry, that's not enough to claim his as truly "healthy", without qualifying it with "for now". As I and many others have said, 42 game (through the end of the season) might be enough, but it is way too early to guarantee him any real money.

 

Broduer has missed all of this season- does that make him worth less $ when he returns?

That's one injury, so probably not. Timmy has missed significant time for at least 5 different injuries in the past two years. If Brodeur misses significant time for a couple more injuries, then his value would fall, too. Players are worth less than nothing when they are injured. If a players injury history begins to suggest a pattern, then their value falls. It's all about playing the odds. A player with Timmy's injury history is worth far less than the exact same player with Vanek's injury history (recent jaw fracture aside.)

 

Let's assume for a second that his injuries are behind him. Wouldn't you want him on your team?

Again, big assumption based on 14 games. But, yes, under that assumption, I would.

 

SOMEBODY will take a chance on Connolly, and he won't be signing for less than #1 center money.

Well, only the Sabres can right now. At the end of the season, if he has stayed healthy then the argument is different. Besides, just because one GM is willing to take a bad bet, doesn't mean that the Sabres are foolish for not taking that same bet. Certainly, it doesn't mean that we should do it now.

[nfreeman]

Boy, this really is a tricky one. You might even call it a conundrum if you were so inclined. Bottom line is that he's going to get more expensive with every game that he plays and doesn't get hurt. So, anyone who says "we should see if he stays healthy for the rest of the season and, if he does, sign him for $1.5MM for 1 year" is just kidding himself. That ain't gonna happen. If he stays healthy through the end of the year and the Sabres win, say, 1 round in the playoffs -- someone is going to give him a deal worth at least $5MM in total (and maybe $10MM -- it only takes one bozo GM).

 

Darcy has already announced that he's trying to sign TC. Since this is going on right now, the question is: what do you give him right now, after all of 14 games, and after missing more games over the last 5 years than ANYONE ELSE in the whole NHL? I'd be fine with 2 years x $2.5 million, but you know his agent is pushing for at least another 3-year deal, and probably for at least $3MM per year. Don't forget that salaries and the cap have both shot up since TC signed his last deal. It's quite likely that TC will not agree to take anything less than his current deal, right now, to keep him off the market.

 

So: do you give him 3 years x $3MM right now? And don't kid yourself -- if the answer is no, the most likely outcome is that he stays healthy and signs with someone else at the end of the season.

[LabattBlue]

So: do you give him 3 years x $3MM right now? And don't kid yourself -- if the answer is no, the most likely outcome is that he stays healthy and signs with someone else at the end of the season.

More than I want to pay, but as long as the Sabres have a Plan B for a scoring line center when(not IF, when) Connolly goes down, I'd be okay with handing him this deal.

 

Plan B does not mean moving Hecht, Gaustad, Mair or any other current Sabre into the role of scoring center.

[bflobarry]

Just for you Tom.

Just for you, Inkman: "Cuz" and "prolly" were on purpose, as per usual board lingo. You got me missing "ridiculous". Good for you. Happy? Either way, and despite all the gnashing of teeth by the "fans" who continually trash Connolly for being injured, he WILL command $5 mil per on the open market. Mark it down.

[Skibum]

I've never posted here before, but I wanted to chime in on this one.

 

My feeling is that Timmy won't be signing with the Sabres. We should know how this works by now. The star player's stock rises, he becomes aware that there are teams out there willing to pay irrational amounts of money for his services, and he stalls contract talks until he becomes a UFA. Then it's out the door to the highest bidder.

 

I'm sure there are plenty of GM's that could talk themselves into signing Connolly to an outrageous contract. No doubt his agent knows this. The injuries amount to a string of bad luck - the guy was an iron man for four years - he's not brittle. Lots of players making stacks of cash have had more concussions than Tim Connolly.

 

Bottom line is that Darcy, given his history, will not be the highest bidder here. We've seen it before. I just hope he has a plan B in mind so we can replace Timmy at center.

 

I would love to see him locked up long term, but the reality is that it's out of the Sabres' hands. Besides, has anyone ever heard Tim say that he hopes he can get a deal locked up so he can stay in Buffalo? Given the way fans have treated him through all his injuries, why would he even want to play here any more? And for those who think he owes the team something for all the games he missed, try to put yourself in his shoes. If your job caused you a broken leg, bone spurs, a broken back, broken ribs, and possibly brain damage, (plus some other stuff I forgot about) would you feel like you owed your employer anything?

[deluca67]

No need to quibble on the rest of your post but unless the years '99-'00 through '02-'03 didn't exist, then Connolly has not only shown he can withstand the rigors of an NHL season but FOUR of them to boot.

 

Sometimes facts clouded by intractable opinion don't mix well.

 

By the way, how are you doing in the Connolly's Next Injury pool? Did you take the over or under?

 

GO SABRES!!!

Connolly starts out playing four full years then spends the next five decimated by injury after injury. How does that show he can "withstand the rigors of an NHL season?" It proves just the opposite. The "rigors" caught up to him.

 

Injury pool? I picked Connolly will get hurt shortly after he signs his next contract. That seems to be how it goes.

[deluca67]

Boy, this really is a tricky one. You might even call it a conundrum if you were so inclined. Bottom line is that he's going to get more expensive with every game that he plays and doesn't get hurt. So, anyone who says "we should see if he stays healthy for the rest of the season and, if he does, sign him for $1.5MM for 1 year" is just kidding himself. That ain't gonna happen. If he stays healthy through the end of the year and the Sabres win, say, 1 round in the playoffs -- someone is going to give him a deal worth at least $5MM in total (and maybe $10MM -- it only takes one bozo GM).

 

Darcy has already announced that he's trying to sign TC. Since this is going on right now, the question is: what do you give him right now, after all of 14 games, and after missing more games over the last 5 years than ANYONE ELSE in the whole NHL? I'd be fine with 2 years x $2.5 million, but you know his agent is pushing for at least another 3-year deal, and probably for at least $3MM per year. Don't forget that salaries and the cap have both shot up since TC signed his last deal. It's quite likely that TC will not agree to take anything less than his current deal, right now, to keep him off the market.

 

So: do you give him 3 years x $3MM right now? And don't kid yourself -- if the answer is no, the most likely outcome is that he stays healthy and signs with someone else at the end of the season.

Throw away another $9 million? I just don't see it happening. Take the money and spend it wisely elsewhere.

[K-9]

Connolly starts out playing four full years then spends the next five decimated by injury after injury. How does that show he can "withstand the rigors of an NHL season?" It proves just the opposite. The "rigors" caught up to him.

 

Injury pool? I picked Connolly will get hurt shortly after he signs his next contract. That seems to be how it goes.

 

Well, DeLuca there are rigors and then there are. rigors. Concussions, misaligned jaws, severe knee sprains, bone spurs, cracked vertebrae, and a broken rib hardly qualify as the normal "rigors" of an NHL season. His four seasons of withstanding the normal rigors are testament to his durability. By your pathetic standards I guess the rigors have finally caught up to Vanek as well.Or Max or Hecht or Gaustad. None of whom has suffered near as severe a series of injurties as TC. But I gotta give you credit for sticking to your guns on the issue. As misguided as they may be.

 

GO SABRES!!!

[nfreeman]

Throw away another $9 million? I just don't see it happening. Take the money and spend it wisely elsewhere.

I know that's what you would do. But what do you think Darcy will do? My point was simply that it's a much tougher decision than "let's wait until the end of the season and, if he stays healthy, sign him for 1 year at $1.5MM", because that isn't an option.

 

For the record, I don't know what I would do, and I don't know what Darcy will do. I would risk $2MM x 2 years, but I don't think that's an option either. Since Max and Kotalik, and probably Spacek, are gone after this year, that's 3 sizeable contracts, each of which worked out badly-to-just-OK, that are gone, with another one (Tallinder) gone in another year if not sooner. Maybe in the overall team budget/cap context, risking another $3MM x 3 years on TC isn't such a bad bet. OTOH, if he misses another 50+% of the games during that contract, we'll all be pulling our hair out again.

[nucci]

I've never posted here before, but I wanted to chime in on this one.

 

My feeling is that Timmy won't be signing with the Sabres. We should know how this works by now. The star player's stock rises, he becomes aware that there are teams out there willing to pay irrational amounts of money for his services, and he stalls contract talks until he becomes a UFA. Then it's out the door to the highest bidder.

 

I'm sure there are plenty of GM's that could talk themselves into signing Connolly to an outrageous contract. No doubt his agent knows this. The injuries amount to a string of bad luck - the guy was an iron man for four years - he's not brittle. Lots of players making stacks of cash have had more concussions than Tim Connolly.

 

Bottom line is that Darcy, given his history, will not be the highest bidder here. We've seen it before. I just hope he has a plan B in mind so we can replace Timmy at center.

 

I would love to see him locked up long term, but the reality is that it's out of the Sabres' hands. Besides, has anyone ever heard Tim say that he hopes he can get a deal locked up so he can stay in Buffalo? Given the way fans have treated him through all his injuries, why would he even want to play here any more? And for those who think he owes the team something for all the games he missed, try to put yourself in his shoes. If your job caused you a broken leg, bone spurs, a broken back, broken ribs, and possibly brain damage, (plus some other stuff I forgot about) would you feel like you owed your employer anything?

Your 1st point is correct. The only problem coming in to play is the talk of the cap going down the year after next. It will be interesting how the GM's deal with it. Philly is already regretting Briere's contract.

[carpandean]

My point was simply that it's a much tougher decision than "let's wait until the end of the season and, if he stays healthy, sign him for 1 year at $1.5MM", because that isn't an option.

I don't know about anyone else, but this wasn't what I was suggesting. I said that I wouldn't be willing to give him more than 1 year, $1-1.5 million right now (i.e., based on just 14 games healthy.) I'd rather wait until the summer and risk having to pay him more or even losing him. I would expect him to command much more at the end of the season if he stays healthy, but I also see that as being less risky.

 

Taken individually, each injury seems to be just bad luck; the type of thing that could happen to anyone. Taken together, though, it really has to make you wonder. How does one player have that many different injuries all due to bad luck? I want to see more than 14 games before I believe that he was, and no longer is, just snake bitten. Realistically, if you had taken just about any legitimate scoring-line center that we could have acquired two years ago and added him to the lineup in place of Connolly, we likely would have made the playoffs last year (we were so close that it's hard to imagine having two scoring lines consistently throughout the season wouldn't have pushed us in) and would be higher in the standings now with a far better chance of making the playoffs. That's what risking money on him has done for us so far and I'd hate to think about that happening again. The worst moment that I had this summer was when Darcy said that they were fine down the middle as long as Timmy was healthy. Look where that got us. Now, because he has played 14 games, we want to try that again, possibly for 2-3 years? It's a hard sell for me.

[nfreeman]

I don't know about anyone else, but this wasn't what I was suggesting. I said that I wouldn't be willing to give him more than 1 year, $1-1.5 million right now (i.e., based on just 14 games healthy.) I'd rather wait until the summer and risk having to pay him more or even losing him. I would expect him to command much more at the end of the season if he stays healthy, but I also see that as being less risky.

 

Taken individually, each injury seems to be just bad luck; the type of thing that could happen to anyone. Taken together, though, it really has to make you wonder. How does one player have that many different injuries all due to bad luck? I want to see more than 14 games before I believe that he was, and no longer is, just snake bitten. Realistically, if you had taken just about any legitimate scoring-line center that we could have acquired two years ago and added him to the lineup in place of Connolly, we likely would have made the playoffs last year (we were so close that it's hard to imagine having two scoring lines consistently throughout the season wouldn't have pushed us in) and would be higher in the standings now with a far better chance of making the playoffs. That's what risking money on him has done for us so far and I'd hate to think about that happening again. The worst moment that I had this summer was when Darcy said that they were fine down the middle as long as Timmy was healthy. Look where that got us. Now, because he has played 14 games, we want to try that again, possibly for 2-3 years? It's a hard sell for me.

I wasn't referring to you (or anyone else) specifically; I was just making the (possibly exaggerated) point that just about anyone would re-sign him at a number that doesn't constitute a risk, i.e. anyone would make an extremely easy decision, but there isn't an extremely easy decision to be made. The real decision is: do you let him leave, or do you take (another) real financial risk and re-sign him now to a deal that is more or less the same as he has now?

 

As for waiting until the summer -- I think that if that happens, he's gone. Someone is going to make an offer that is too rich for the Sabres' blood. This brings us back to making the tough decision now, which is what it seems like Darcy is wrestling with.

 

However, I certainly can't disagree with anything you say, or with the position that it's just too risky to commit more than a nominal amount to him right now. I just don't want anyone to think that there is the slightest possibility of him signing a cheap 1-year extension now. It's not happening.

[Patty16]

whats the risk again?

Lets assume the team can afford him. All contracts are insured, if he is injured and misses the whole season, the Sabres do not pay his salary, he doesnt count against the cap. Even if you cant get his contract insured, hes not a cap hit.

If hes healthy hes a #1 center and 1/pg player. We havent had one of those in a long time, no one on this team is as talented as him, aside from vanek.

[Taro T]

whats the risk again?

Lets assume the team can afford him. All contracts are insured, if he is injured and misses the whole season, the Sabres do not pay his salary, he doesnt count against the cap. Even if you cant get his contract insured, hes not a cap hit.

If hes healthy hes a #1 center and 1/pg player. We havent had one of those in a long time, no one on this team is as talented as him, aside from vanek.

All contracts are NOT insured. (Consideringing your moniker, I'd expect that you knew that.) Even when they are insured, there are typically minimum games missed clauses that kick in before the team sees any relief (similar to the deductible on an auto policy). And a policy on Timmy due to recent injury history would likely not be cheap. I'm sure the Sabres are looking into that, and IF the policy is reasonable, it does lower the risk of signing him significantly.

 

The area where an insurance policy doesn't come into play is that the Sabres are very unlikely to have another true top 2 centerman in their plans if they choose Timmy. If Timmy can stay healthy the rest of this season, there is a good likelihood that the succession of injuries that started w/ the concussion/neck problem in '06 will be behind him after a full normal off-season conditioning regimen. If they aren't, and Timmy is in the future plans, then a contingency plan is necessary. Sliding Jochen to center on the 2nd line, is not what many here would consider to be a "plan."

[carpandean]

whats the risk again?

Lets assume the team can afford him. All contracts are insured, if he is injured and misses the whole season, the Sabres do not pay his salary, he doesnt count against the cap. Even if you cant get his contract insured, hes not a cap hit.

See the last year and a half. 'nough said. The risk is that he continues to get injury after injury through yet another contract, leaving us without a second scoring-line center more often than not. Even if the contract is insured, it's not like they can sign him, watch him get injured again and then just find another scoring-line center. Those are very difficult to be had at any point other than the summer and the trade deadline (basically, once a team acknowledges that they are out and will be rebuilding.) Unless they get Timmy really cheaply right now, they won't be able to have a real backup plan. That's a bad enough situation to be in with two centers with no injury history, but is totally unacceptable when one has Timmy's history.

 

Also, as Taro T pointed out, it is doubt that they could afford insurance given his history.

[...]

So, are we on the verge of giving TV the "injury prone" moniker? I mean, after all, he could have avoided that shot. What if TV sustains another month-long injury after this? That's $7 mil down the tubes.

[spndnchz]

So, are we on the verge of giving TV the "injury prone" moniker? I mean, after all, he could have avoided that shot. What if TV sustains another month-long injury after this? That's $7 mil down the tubes.

I'd be more worried that TV gets gun shy rather than him actually getting another puck to the face.

[Patty16]

All contracts are NOT insured. (Consideringing your moniker, I'd expect that you knew that.) Even when they are insured, there are typically minimum games missed clauses that kick in before the team sees any relief (similar to the deductible on an auto policy). And a policy on Timmy due to recent injury history would likely not be cheap. I'm sure the Sabres are looking into that, and IF the policy is reasonable, it does lower the risk of signing him significantly.

 

The area where an insurance policy doesn't come into play is that the Sabres are very unlikely to have another true top 2 centerman in their plans if they choose Timmy. If Timmy can stay healthy the rest of this season, there is a good likelihood that the succession of injuries that started w/ the concussion/neck problem in '06 will be behind him after a full normal off-season conditioning regimen. If they aren't, and Timmy is in the future plans, then a contingency plan is necessary. Sliding Jochen to center on the 2nd line, is not what many here would consider to be a "plan."

 

No but teams must buy player contract insurance and are free to allocate the coverage as they please (min games missed is 30). You can even get coverage for certain body parts, (see J WIlliams w Carolina). Its really a matter of whether they would want to purchase private insurance which is usually cost prohibitive. They would most certainly be able to get his contract insured for injuries other than neck/head or even to include that if they were willing to shell out the premiums.

ie when players play in intl forum they have their contracts insured. AO's was covered at the worlds for $.5M for just a few games on a $124M contract.

The options IS there for TC, but for a team like buffalo prob not the most prudent avenue.

[G.M.]

If Connolly is traded at the deadline we would most likely get a mid round first round pick. On average the great players are in the top 5 picks. The better players are in the first and second round picks and they wildcards are from round 3 out. Therefore draft in the middle stay in the middle. Never be good enough to get really bad players and never be bad enough to get really good players. *The Sabres are masters at staying in the middle*

Even a larger contract to Connolly would place us well below the cap.

If he gets hurt so what?

It does not cost against the cap since he is on I.R. When he does play we get one of the best centers in the game.

 

If he has a contract then it becomes possible to trade him. And if he is really really good and stays healthy then what? Were not gonna draft in the Top 5 again unless the bottom falls out. To win a Cup the sabres need a number one center? Is this Connolly? In all honesty? Maybe but if he is under contract then the sabres could trade him for value.

 

The so called core of the team including Connolly will be aging rapidly in the next 5 years. Whatever window these current players meaning this goaltender with this forward line have will be decided very quickly.

 

This team is really caught in the middle between a large underachieving cast of characters and a young now but aging group that will be on the outs when all these real young players become available.

 

Give Connolly a 3 year 15 million dollar contract now.

[spndnchz]

Damn those mods are fast. :thumbsup: under 3 minutes. Big bother is watching. :nana:

[LabattBlue]

Damn those mods are fast. :thumbsup: under 3 minutes. Big bother is watching. :nana:

:D

[carpandean]

If he gets hurt so what?

It does not cost against the cap since he is on I.R. When he does play we get one of the best centers in the game.

Repeat after me: the Sabres are cash-strapped, not cap-strapped. We have nearly $6 million in cap space right now, but our salary is at the internal budget. If we sign Connolly for anywhere near that $5 million per year that you suggest, then we will not be signing any other centers (in fact, given our other contracts even signing that one would require an increase in the internal budget.) That means if Connolly gets hurt, even if he goes on LTIR, we won't have the cash to bring in anyone else and Hecht will be our #2 center (unless Kennedy becomes an NHL scoring-line center capable soon.) That's "so what".

[deluca67]

So, are we on the verge of giving TV the "injury prone" moniker? I mean, after all, he could have avoided that shot. What if TV sustains another month-long injury after this? That's $7 mil down the tubes.

If Vanek misses more games than he plays over a five year period you may be correct. Before this injury the last game Vanek missed was game 7 vs the Canes.