Kotalik

[Barnabov]

Who thinks Ales gets a contract extension? I'd say if they can make the numbers work, he'd been good to retain. Probably they'll let him go though with no return as per business as usual. Sorry if this has been covered elsewhere.

[nucci]

No, too inconsistent.

[will]

shipped for a pick at the deadline, or packaged for a prospect and a pick.

[UncleWally]

I can see him in four places: the box, along the boards behind the opponent goal or around the left face off circle during a PP & lastly, his best spot: leading off on the shoot out

[Lethbridge Broncos]

Yes, 230 pounds is hard to replace in this league. He shot is great. In the playoffs his type makes a difference. He will finish with 20 goals. NO problem.

[carpandean]

Yes, 230 pounds is hard to replace in this league. He shot is great. In the playoffs his type makes a difference. He will finish with 20 goals. NO problem.

1) He doesn't use that 230 lbs at all. Throws a hit about once a month.

2) He does have a nice shot, but they telegraph it too much on the PP. Against a team with a decent PK, he gets blocked over and over.

3) His biggest value is in the SOs, which don't happen in the playoffs.

4) I don't recall him ever being a difference in the playoffs.

[deluca67]

Depends on the price. A big body that can get you 20 goals? If the Sabres can sign him for $3 million it would be a good price. A decent third line player that can log some time on the PP. He's a middle of the roster player. He's not a big ticket item. He's also not a Adam Mair.

[inkman]

I was absolutely tickled when the Calgary announcer declared: "Why isn't Ales Kotalik a perennial 30 goal scorer every season?" We all know the answer, as does he, but it's interesting to hear it from the outside.

[...]

I was absolutely tickled when the Calgary announcer declared: "Why isn't Ales Kotalik a perennial 30 goal scorer every season?" We all know the answer, as does he, but it's interesting to hear it from the outside.

 

 

That got a chuckle out of me, too. The set up was something like "one of the NHL's greatest mysteries is..."

 

I like the guy. Far from being clutch, he does once in a while happen to be in the right place at the right time with the right shot. And, no, SO's don't happen in the playoffs, but they can get you there. It would depend on who Darcy might think his replacement could be.

[tom webster]

Depends on the price. A big body that can get you 20 goals? If the Sabres can sign him for $3 million it would be a good price. A decent third line player that can log some time on the PP. He's a middle of the roster player. He's not a big ticket item. He's also not a Adam Mair.

 

There isn't a team in the league that pays $3 million for a third line player. With the players they have already committed to, with the way Stafford is playing and with the prospects they need to make room for, and the fact they have to commit some money to the 2nd line center position, be it TC or someone else, there is simply no room for him.

[nucci]

The only UFA on the team right now that maybe gets signed is Connolly. I think teams are starting to realize that the cap is going to decrease and are being careful with contracts. On most teams, guys in their contract year have their best seasons. Not here!!

[bflobarry]

Let's see: Can't play defense, at all. Worst passer in the league. Doesn't hustle. Doesn't use his 220 lbs to his advantage. Turnover machine....Yes, he has a cannon shot, WHEN somebody else does the work to set him up. And he is great in shootouts. But, you don't win stanley cups w/ shootout goals. He is the most frustrating Sabre to watch, along w/ the suddendly pitiful Hecht.

[DR HOLLIDAY]

3) His biggest value is in the SOs, which don't happen in the playoffs.

 

But his work in the So's during the season is one reason we might actually make the playoffs.

[inkman]

Worst passer in the league.

Perhaps a bit overstated, but your point is clear.

[carpandean]

But his work in the So's during the season is one reason we might actually make the playoffs.

True, but as I said in another thread, if he's looking for $3 million, I'm not convinced that we can't make up more than what he gives us there by paying someone younger $1 million to play on the third line and putting the extra $2 million into the "second-line center" jar. It's not like you take away Kotalik and suddenly you lose every shootout that he would have scored in. Everyone moves up a slot in the rotation. Maybe, it takes longer (instead of just 2-0 through two rounds), but you still may win. I'd estimate that without him, we'd only lose two points in SOs over the course of the season that we would have gotten with him. But, by not signing him, putting someone who better is defensively and willing to hustle more on the third line, then signing a top-two center, we would make up more than that in regulation play.

[...]

True, but as I said in another thread, if he's looking for $3 million, I'm not convinced that we can't make up more than what he gives us there by paying someone younger $1 million to play on the third line and putting the extra $2 million into the "second-line center" jar. It's not like you take away Kotalik and suddenly you lose every shootout that he would have scored in. Everyone moves up a slot in the rotation. Maybe, it takes longer (instead of just 2-0 through two rounds), but you still may win. I'd estimate that without him, we'd only lose two points in SOs over the course of the season that we would have gotten with him. But, by not signing him, putting someone who better is defensively and willing to hustle more on the third line, then signing a top-two center, we would make up more than that in regulation play.

 

That would be Mancari, out of the people we have in Portland. Which I would be okay with.

 

As the season progresses, I have developed my list of those whom I want to stick around. I like Kotalik, but he's not on the list.

[nfreeman]

I was absolutely tickled when the Calgary announcer declared: "Why isn't Ales Kotalik a perennial 30 goal scorer every season?" We all know the answer, as does he, but it's interesting to hear it from the outside.

Good call. I noticed that too.

 

There isn't a team in the league that pays $3 million for a third line player. With the players they have already committed to, with the way Stafford is playing and with the prospects they need to make room for, and the fact they have to commit some money to the 2nd line center position, be it TC or someone else, there is simply no room for him.

Good post. I think you nailed it.

 

FWIW, I wouldn't mind keeping him at his current salary or less -- but I think this only happens if we make a real trade to ship out more than one of the younger forwards (MacArthur, Paille, Gerbe, Kennedy, Mancari) and/or we lose Stafford as a FA. I don't see either of these happening because I don't see Darcy giving up on Gerbe, Kennedy or Stafford, and I don't see anyone giving us anything worthwhile for Mac, Paille or Mancari.

 

Assuming Max is gone, our forwards next year look like:

 

Connolly/new center-Vanek-Stafford

Roy-Pommer-Hecht

Goose-Kaleta-Paille

Mair + 2 of Mac, Gerbe, Kennedy, Mancari, Ellis

 

Bottom line is there isn't room for Al unless they unload at least 2 other guys.

[LabattBlue]

Good call. I noticed that too.

Good post. I think you nailed it.

 

FWIW, I wouldn't mind keeping him at his current salary or less -- but I think this only happens if we make a real trade to ship out more than one of the younger forwards (MacArthur, Paille, Gerbe, Kennedy, Mancari) and/or we lose Stafford as a FA. I don't see either of these happening because I don't see Darcy giving up on Gerbe, Kennedy or Stafford, and I don't see anyone giving us anything worthwhile for Mac, Paille or Mancari.

 

Assuming Max is gone, our forwards next year look like:

 

Connolly/new center-Vanek-Stafford

Roy-Pommer-Hecht

Goose-Kaleta-Paille

Mair + 2 of Mac, Gerbe, Kennedy, Mancari, Ellis

 

Bottom line is there isn't room for Al unless they unload at least 2 other guys.

The biggest problem I see is that your 4th line outside of Mair and Ellis are guys who are scorers(I'll use the term loosely) and have no place on the 4th line, which should be build with agitators/grinders/hitters...

[R_Dudley]

Who thinks Ales gets a contract extension? I'd say if they can make the numbers work, he'd been good to retain. Probably they'll let him go though with no return as per business as usual. Sorry if this has been covered elsewhere.

which I agree w/poster's here who say around 2 to 2/1/2 Million Or else

shipped for a pick at the deadline, or packaged for a prospect and a pick.

 

I was absolutely tickled when the Calgary announcer declared: "Why isn't Ales Kotalik a perennial 30 goal scorer every season?" We all know the answer, as does he, but it's interesting to hear it from the outside.

Tickled was not quite my response, I posted that observation in last nights thread right after it happened.

 

For me it was like the classic "Mr Obvious" comment to any Buffalo fan who watches the team and it chaffed me like a wedgie with a burlap boxer. :blink:

[carpandean]

Connolly/new center-Vanek-Stafford

Roy-Pommer-Hecht

Goose-Kaleta-Paille

Mair + 2 of Mac, Gerbe, Kennedy, Mancari, Ellis

The biggest problem I see is that your 4th line outside of Mair and Ellis are guys who are scorers(I'll use the term loosely) and have no place on the 4th line, which should be build with agitators/grinders/hitters...

Agreed. I'd actually like to see something like this (I prefer the LW-C-RW notation):

 

Vanek-New Center-Stafford

Gerbe/Kennedy-Roy-Pommer

Hecht-Gaustad-Mancari

Kaleta-Mair-Ellis

 

Alt/trade: Mac, Paille

 

My thinking on that third line is that they could be a true checking (shutdown) line, with three strong two-way players. The fourth line would be the energy (grinders/agitators) line, as it should be. I think one of Gerbe or Kennedy will be ready to step up next year and the other will be on the first line in Portland as the first callup. We have a glutton of LWers on this team and I could see one or two going in a package deal trade. MacArthur has been playing well, but his numbers may be worth more than he really is, so he might be the best to throw into a trade. Honestly, though, Hecht will probably start on the second line and one of the more gifted scoring left wingers will be stuck on the third or, if Paille can play more consistently, he will be on the third (since he is skilled defensively), which would leave Gerbe and Kennedy in Portland.

[nfreeman]

Agreed. I'd actually like to see something like this (I prefer the LW-C-RW notation):

 

Vanek-New Center-Stafford

Gerbe/Kennedy-Roy-Pommer

Hecht-Gaustad-Mancari

Kaleta-Mair-Ellis

 

Alt/trade: Mac, Paille

 

My thinking on that third line is that they could be a true checking (shutdown) line, with three strong two-way players. The fourth line would be the energy (grinders/agitators) line, as it should be. I think one of Gerbe or Kennedy will be ready to step up next year and the other will be on the first line in Portland as the first callup. We have a glutton of LWers on this team and I could see one or two going in a package deal trade. MacArthur has been playing well, but his numbers may be worth more than he really is, so he might be the best to throw into a trade. Honestly, though, Hecht will probably start on the second line and one of the more gifted scoring left wingers will be stuck on the third or, if Paille can play more consistently, he will be on the third (since he is skilled defensively), which would leave Gerbe and Kennedy in Portland.

I can't really disagree, but I have a hard time seeing both Mac and Paille unloaded -- frankly it's more likely that both will be back and continuing to compete with each other for 3rd line vs. 4th line roles. I'd expect to see Ellis gone before either of them goes. I also think that while many posters buy into the traditional "2 scoring line, a checking line and an agitator line" approach, Lindy doesn't, and that he'll continue to play ostensibly scoring forwards on the 3rd & 4th lines.

 

I also think you're right that it's more likely that Hecht stays on the 2nd line than Gerbe or Kennedy getting that spot.

 

Also, I think that at the time he got hurt, Kaleta was showing more of a 2-way game than he had previously, and that, if he stays healthy, he's going to be good enough to be a legit 3rd liner.

[LabattBlue]

I also think that while many posters buy into the traditional "2 scoring line, a checking line and an agitator line" approach, Lindy doesn't, and that he'll continue to play ostensibly scoring forwards on the 3rd & 4th lines.

Sort of like Lindy not buying into the fact that he has to play his backup goalie more than once a month? :doh:

[carpandean]

I can't really disagree, but I have a hard time seeing both Mac and Paille unloaded -- frankly it's more likely that both will be back and continuing to compete with each other for 3rd line vs. 4th line roles. I'd expect to see Ellis gone before either of them goes. I also think that while many posters buy into the traditional "2 scoring line, a checking line and an agitator line" approach, Lindy doesn't, and that he'll continue to play ostensibly scoring forwards on the 3rd & 4th lines.

I also think you're right that it's more likely that Hecht stays on the 2nd line than Gerbe or Kennedy getting that spot.

Also, I think that at the time he got hurt, Kaleta was showing more of a 2-way game than he had previously, and that, if he stays healthy, he's going to be good enough to be a legit 3rd liner.

A lot of Mac and Paille's future will depend on how the FO is feeling about Gerbe and Kennedy for next year. If they are OK with starting them in Portland, then both Mac and Paille may be here. Otherwise, we have too many bodies at the LW position with Vanek, Hecht, MacArthur, Paille, Kennedy, Gerbe and possibly Ellis (oops, I switched Ellis and Kaleta in my fourth line.) Mac is a RFA again this summer and, like I said, his production so far may look better to a GM than he really is (like Paille would have looked last year.)

 

As for Ellis, while I agree that he will likely be gone first, I'm not entirely sure that he should be. The guy works hard, kills penalties and is defensively sound. He's not going to contribute much offensively, but he's a great guy to stick out there for 8-12 minutes per game to take the load off of your higher lines and will be very cheap. Certainly not an option that I would dismiss too easily.

 

I don't know about Kaleta on the third line. While he may develop the requisite skill level (not convinced yet), he's a role player and a good one at that. He draws penalties, gets the crowd excited and puts the other team on their toes. I honestly believe that Mair could have developed into a very good third-liner, too, if they had asked him to. However, when they brought him in, they told him that they had a very specific role in mind for him, one for which he has an uncommon set of skills, so he developed his game that way. Same will likely go for Kaleta.

[spndnchz]

A lot of Mac and Paille's future will depend on how the FO is feeling about Gerbe and Kennedy for next year. If they are OK with starting them in Portland, then both Mac and Paille may be here. Otherwise, we have too many bodies at the LW position with Vanek, Hecht, MacArthur, Paille, Kennedy, Gerbe and possibly Ellis (oops, I switched Ellis and Kaleta in my fourth line.) Mac is a RFA again this summer and, like I said, his production so far may look better to a GM than he really is (like Paille would have looked last year.)

 

As for Ellis, while I agree that he will likely be gone first, I'm not entirely sure that he should be. The guy works hard, kills penalties and is defensively sound. He's not going to contribute much offensively, but he's a great guy to stick out there for 8-12 minutes per game to take the load off of your higher lines and will be very cheap. Certainly not an option that I would dismiss too easily.

 

I don't know about Kaleta on the third line. While he may develop the requisite skill level (not convinced yet), he's a role player and a good one at that. He draws penalties, gets the crowd excited and puts the other team on their toes. I honestly believe that Mair could have developed into a very good third-liner, too, if they had asked him to. However, when they brought him in, they told him that they had a very specific role in mind for him, one for which he has an uncommon set of skills, so he developed his game that way. Same will likely go for Kaleta.

Paille looked good last year, as U say, but he didn't get one offer from any club. Why would Mac be different?

I'll agree on Ellis.

What exactly is Mair's "uncommon set of skills".

[carpandean]

Paille looked good last year, as U say, but he didn't get one offer from any club. Why would Mac be different?

I'll agree on Ellis.

What exactly is Mair's "uncommon set of skills".

I was thinking as part of a package deal at the trade deadline, not as someone grabbed with an offer sheet.

 

Mair has decent skills in both ends of the rink, but is also willing/able to hit and, when necessary, fight anyone who isn't a true heavy-weight (well out of his weight class.) Stupid penalties aside (more of a recent thing), he plays with high intensity every shift, has enough skill to put in some goals and can spark a team when down with a good scrap. Simply put, he's gritty, but not generally a liability (again, penalties aside, which I hope they are addressing.) Given the flexibility that he gives you, I'd say that he's a good value at $750k.