The January Gauntlet...

[LabattBlue]

5-2 so far. Two bad road games against Chicago and Detroit and a lackluster 40 minutes at home against the Rangers, but overall, more ammo for DR to not make any significant trades. :rolleyes:

 

Jan 1 at Toronto W 4-1

Jan 3 at Boston W 4-2

Jan 6 vs Ottawa W 4-2

Jan 9 vs NY Rangers W 2-1

Jan 10 at Detroit L 1-3

Jan 14 at Chicago L 1-4

Jan 15 at Dallas W 5-4

Jan 17 vs Carolina

Jan 19 at Florida

Jan 21 at Tampa Bay

Jan 27 at Edmonton

Jan 28 at Calgary 8:00 pm

Jan 31 at Phoenix 9:00 pm

[That Aud Smell]

i am consigned to the fact that the team won't be making a splash before the trade deadline.

 

let alone a small wave.

 

or a ripple. :wallbash:

 

that said, The Skill was top 6 in ice time for forwards last night. if he can keep it up and get things rolling, our chances of finishing in the 7/8 slot will improve markedly.

[inkman]

The Skill was top 6 in ice time for forwards last night. if he can keep it up and get things rolling, our chances of finishing in the 7/8 slot will improve markedly.

Meh...His stats weren't very impressive:

 

T. Connolly C 20:05 0 0 -1

[BetweenThePipes00]

i am consigned to the fact that the team won't be making a splash before the trade deadline.

 

let alone a small wave.

 

or a ripple. :wallbash:

 

that said, The Skill was top 6 in ice time for forwards last night. if he can keep it up and get things rolling, our chances of finishing in the 7/8 slot will improve markedly.

 

Connolly makes a huge difference. Granted, the 4th Dallas goal was his fault last night, but in addition to his Skill, the guy really does give effort at both ends and is willing to throw his weight around a little, which is either admirable or stupid given his history. I have no confidence that he will survive the month, but now that he has his legs under him, they are a better team with him out there. As frustrating as he is with the injuries, when he is not in there he is missed (unlike Max) ... If he plays 30 of the 38 games left, I think they make the playoffs and may catch NJD for 6th. If he plays 15 (more likely), they will battle to finish 7th or 8th as you say.

 

As for what they may or may not do before the deadline ... I mean ... does anyone really think they are a player away from really contending for the Cup this season? I don't. Even if they got a shot in the arm from someone in a trade, I think they are a playoff team that could finish 5th at best (based on the fact that boston will have 108 points if they play just .500 hockey the rest of the way ... MTL would have 97 or 98 if they play .500 hockey ... so to pass even MTL, the Sabres would have to win like 25 of 38 from here on out - or at least get 50 points somehow. Unless they add LeCavalier or Kovalchuk, no way that happens and even then it's a longshot.).

So all that is a long way of saying that if DR can move Max or Tallinder or even Kotalik and get something that will help long-term, he needs to do it. They can battle for the 6th-8th spots pretty much the same with or without them. But IMO it is not worth giving up on a young player like Stafford just to try to improve THIS YEAR's team. Now, if it's a bigger deal that brings someone that makes them better next year too, fine, I am not saying guys are untouchable. But if they give up an asset just to finish 5th and get bounced early anyway ... just would not be smart.

 

Back to Connolly ... did anyone think the Vanek-Connolly-Kotalik line was interesting? I also liked Roy with Pominville and Hecht if for no other reason than he seemed to get their legs moving. Everyone else who has played with them seems to defer to them because it's like "their line" or something and the other guy is just playing on it. Roy took the puck and was flying in the 3rd period last night, and they had no choice but to go with him. He wasn't waiting around and trying to fit in. He gets out of control and turns it over some, but on that line the other guys are responsible enough to cover for him ...

I don't know, I just thought that for all the times Lindy has tinkered with lines in-game, he may have hit on something that works for more than a period with these lines, even if it was by accident.

[tom webster]

Connolly makes a huge difference. Granted, the 4th Dallas goal was his fault last night, but in addition to his Skill, the guy really does give effort at both ends and is willing to throw his weight around a little, which is either admirable or stupid given his history. I have no confidence that he will survive the month, but now that he has his legs under him, they are a better team with him out there. As frustrating as he is with the injuries, when he is not in there he is missed (unlike Max) ... If he plays 30 of the 38 games left, I think they make the playoffs and may catch NJD for 6th. If he plays 15 (more likely), they will battle to finish 7th or 8th as you say.

 

As for what they may or may not do before the deadline ... I mean ... does anyone really think they are a player away from really contending for the Cup this season? I don't. Even if they got a shot in the arm from someone in a trade, I think they are a playoff team that could finish 5th at best (based on the fact that boston will have 108 points if they play just .500 hockey the rest of the way ... MTL would have 97 or 98 if they play .500 hockey ... so to pass even MTL, the Sabres would have to win like 25 of 38 from here on out - or at least get 50 points somehow. Unless they add LeCavalier or Kovalchuk, no way that happens and even then it's a longshot.).

So all that is a long way of saying that if DR can move Max or Tallinder or even Kotalik and get something that will help long-term, he needs to do it. They can battle for the 6th-8th spots pretty much the same with or without them. But IMO it is not worth giving up on a young player like Stafford just to try to improve THIS YEAR's team. Now, if it's a bigger deal that brings someone that makes them better next year too, fine, I am not saying guys are untouchable. But if they give up an asset just to finish 5th and get bounced early anyway ... just would not be smart.

 

Back to Connolly ... did anyone think the Vanek-Connolly-Kotalik line was interesting? I also liked Roy with Pominville and Hecht if for no other reason than he seemed to get their legs moving. Everyone else who has played with them seems to defer to them because it's like "their line" or something and the other guy is just playing on it. Roy took the puck and was flying in the 3rd period last night, and they had no choice but to go with him. He wasn't waiting around and trying to fit in. He gets out of control and turns it over some, but on that line the other guys are responsible enough to cover for him ...

I don't know, I just thought that for all the times Lindy has tinkered with lines in-game, he may have hit on something that works for more than a period with these lines, even if it was by accident.

 

 

As much as we rip on them, and I admit to being one of their big detractors, they have garnered 26 points in their last 20 games so getting 50 in 38 games doesn't seem like a long shot. In fact at the rate of 65% of points available, they get like 49.4 of the remaining 76 points on the table.

[BetweenThePipes00]

As much as we rip on them, and I admit to being one of their big detractors, they have garnered 26 points in their last 20 games so getting 50 in 38 games doesn't seem like a long shot. In fact at the rate of 65% of points available, they get like 49.4 of the remaining 76 points on the table.

 

Yeah but what are the odds of Boston and/or Montreal playing only .500 hockey too? Even if the Sabres do their part, they are only moving up so far this season.

[LabattBlue]

So all that is a long way of saying that if DR can move Max or Tallinder or even Kotalik and get something that will help long-term, he needs to do it.

I agree with what you are saying and I don't think DR will do anything clsoely resembling that. I think they can move Kotalik, Tallinder and Max and still make the playoffs(assuming they are still in 7th or 8th at the deadline).

 

If they move just Max, I'd be amazed. That is assuming he can get healthy before then and they can find a sucker to dump him off on.

[carpandean]

I really don't think that it matters whether they move into the top 5 or not. If they make moves, they need to consider three things:

1) Do the new players increase the chances of making the playoffs?

2) Do the new players increase the chances of playing well in the playoffs?

3) Can the new players help in the future?

 

We're starting a ways behind those top teams, so even if we somehow make ourselves a better team than they are, there is only a small chance of passing them. Frankly, I don't care about that. The Devils, Rangers and Flyers could be caught, but even that, I don't care so much about. We need to do better than the Penguins, Hurricanes and Panthers, so that we can make it into the post season. As they say, "you have to be in it to win it." A couple of good moves could take them from 50/50 (or where ever you have them at now) to 80/20. Right now, I could see us stealing a round from the right opponent, but we're not built quite right to go far. Again, a couple of good moves could get us through another round, maybe two. However, given any likely moves, I don't see us competing with Detroit or San Jose in the finals, so if the moves can help us in the future (existing contracts or even RFA, not UFA), too, then that's even better. For example, we wouldn't be able to sign a UFA second-line center for less than $4-5 million per, but one might come with a year or two left on his contract at a lower cap hit.

[inkman]

3) Can the new players help in the future?

That is a consideration for sure but Darcy seems to have a decent eye for determining a players peak potential. Novotny and Pyatt were both traded (under different circumstances) because the Sabres had Paille and Stafford in the wings. I could see Darcy moving Paille or MacAthur along with a draft pick for a rental type player like Zubrus a couple years ago. Doug Weight? Bill Guerin? Who knows but Darcy seems to excel at this.

[frisky]

Anaheim at 2/2 should be tacked on to the end of that. I just hope they can do better out west this year. At least come out with half the points.

 

Jan 1 at Toronto W 4-1

Jan 3 at Boston W 4-2

Jan 6 vs Ottawa W 4-2

Jan 9 vs NY Rangers W 2-1

Jan 10 at Detroit L 1-3

Jan 14 at Chicago L 1-4

Jan 15 at Dallas W 5-4

Jan 17 vs Carolina

Jan 19 at Florida

Jan 21 at Tampa Bay

Jan 27 at Edmonton 9 pm

Jan 28 at Calgary 8:00 pm

Jan 31 at Phoenix 9:00 pm

Feb 2 at Anaheim 10 pm

[carpandean]

Anaheim at 2/2 should be tacked on to the end of that. I just hope they can do better out west this year. At least come out with half the points.

Jan 27 at Edmonton 9 pm

Jan 28 at Calgary 8:00 pm

Jan 31 at Phoenix 9:00 pm

Feb 2 at Anaheim 10 pm

Not that it necessarily matters given how inconsistent this team can be, but Calgary is the only team on that list that, on paper, they "should" lose to. They just handed San Jose their first regulation loss at home in 11 months, are 9-1-0 in their last 10 and 16-4-3 at home. The rest of those teams are on the Sabres' level. Anaheim is as bad at home as we are (13-10-3) and Edmonton is worse (9-8-3). Phoenix has a respectable 15-6-2 at home. All of those games will be tough, though, and I would be happy getting at least half of the points, especially if we can handle the three EC teams that we face before them. The next two games (Carolina and Florida) are true "four point games" and are as close to "must win" as you can get at this point in the season.

[LabattBlue]

That is a consideration for sure but Darcy seems to have a decent eye for determining a players peak potential. Novotny and Pyatt were both traded (under different circumstances) because the Sabres had Paille and Stafford in the wings. I could see Darcy moving Paille or MacAthur along with a draft pick for a rental type player like Zubrus a couple years ago. Doug Weight? Bill Guerin? Who knows but Darcy seems to excel at this.

I don't like rental players(because of the price you have to pay) unless a team is a serious cup contender. This team is not a serious cup contender.

[inkman]

I don't like rental players(because of the price you have to pay) unless a team is a serious cup contender. This team is not a serious cup contender.

Sure but room is going to be needed for Gerbe, Kennedy and the like. I wouldn't be surprised to see Kotalik and Connolly back in Sabres gear, particularly if it's on the cheap, which I think Connolly would have to be.

[shrader]

That is a consideration for sure but Darcy seems to have a decent eye for determining a players peak potential. Novotny and Pyatt were both traded (under different circumstances) because the Sabres had Paille and Stafford in the wings. I could see Darcy moving Paille or MacAthur along with a draft pick for a rental type player like Zubrus a couple years ago. Doug Weight? Bill Guerin? Who knows but Darcy seems to excel at this.

 

I would think that Paille and MacArthur are prime candidates for any potential deal, young players already in the NHL who still have plenty of potential. Am I crazy to say that both should have more value than Novotny did?

[Two or less]

I would think that Paille and MacArthur are prime candidates for any potential deal, young players already in the NHL who still have plenty of potential. Am I crazy to say that both should have more value than Novotny did?

 

I think MacArthur could be dealt no doubt about it. However, despite getting benched several times earlier in the season, i don't think Paille will get dealt. He's an excellent defensive forward and a penalty killing machine. He also has potential to hit hard and has enormous speed. I think he gets a bit lazy which is why Lindy benched him but i don't think he's a player Lindy would like traded. Maybe i'm over estimating what Paille means to this team but i just don't see him not a Sabre.

 

I also wouldn't be surprise if we deal one of the little guys. We have 3 pretty short players who are not that far away from the NHL.... Paul Byron, Nate Gerbe and Tyler Ennis. I doubt all 3 will be in the system come Deadline Day 2010.

[bob_sauve28]

Make that 6-2! With a big game against Florida coming up.

[wjag]

Make that 6-2! With a big game against Florida coming up.

After the way they played in Nov and Dec, I've got to say that 12 of 16 points so far is beyond my expectation. Last January the Sabres played themselves out of the playoffs. This January they just might be playing themselves into the playoffs...

[deluca67]

5-2 so far. Two bad road games against Chicago and Detroit and a lackluster 40 minutes at home against the Rangers, but overall, more ammo for DR to not make any significant trades. :rolleyes:

 

Jan 1 at Toronto W 4-1

Jan 3 at Boston W 4-2

Jan 6 vs Ottawa W 4-2

Jan 9 vs NY Rangers W 2-1

Jan 10 at Detroit L 1-3

Jan 14 at Chicago L 1-4

Jan 15 at Dallas W 5-4

Jan 17 vs Carolina

Jan 19 at Florida

Jan 21 at Tampa Bay

Jan 27 at Edmonton

Jan 28 at Calgary 8:00 pm

Jan 31 at Phoenix 9:00 pm

Can a stretch of games that include Toronto, Ottawa,Dallas,Carolina, Florida, Tampa and Edmonton be considered a gauntlet?

 

The game so far in this stretch that has really impressed me was the Bruins game. That is the only game where they gave a full 60 minute effort. They follow that with the stretch of lack luster play that began late in the Detroit game and lasted until late in the Dallas game. At what point does consistency kick in for this team? They can beat the teams they are supposed to beat and have shown they can play with the better teams when they're in the right mood. I wonder more and more each game if it is a talent issue or a motivation issue which falls on the coaching staff.

[carpandean]

Last January the Sabres played themselves out of the playoffs.

While they had a terrible January, starting late January through February, they erased everything they had done wrong that month by going 8-0-2 in a 10 game stretch. It was the next 14 games, where they went 4-7-3 that ultimately saw them fall short of the playoffs.

[bob_sauve28]

While they had a terrible January, starting late January through February, they erased everything they had done wrong that month by going 8-0-2 in a 10 game stretch. It was the next 14 games, where they went 4-7-3 that ultimately saw them fall short of the playoffs.

Revisionist history!!! :D

 

No, you are right, but that long losing slide in late December and thru January is what I remember as the dagger to the heart of this team. It was just so terrible. But you are right, they did rebound for awhile

[Chief Enabler]

FLA, TB and EDM all suck, so the next 3 are very doable....plus the 6 day all-star break is a positive. Downside is the PHX, ANA portion; remember the sunday matinee last year vs. PHX? :wallbash: it has Lalime written all over it.

[wjag]

While they had a terrible January, starting late January through February, they erased everything they had done wrong that month by going 8-0-2 in a 10 game stretch. It was the next 14 games, where they went 4-7-3 that ultimately saw them fall short of the playoffs.

I see your point, but disagree. That slump in January did them in. A few points in January were all they needed to get into the playoffs.. Vanek got hot and they went 8-0-2. But when fighting for a playoff slot, that's what you need to do. You simply can't have a major losing streak and expect to get into the playoffs. You are expected to get hot for a period of time. January did them in.

[carpandean]

I see your point, but disagree. That slump in January did them in. A few points in January were all they needed to get into the playoffs.. Vanek got hot and they went 8-0-2. But when fighting for a playoff slot, that's what you need to do. You simply can't have a major losing streak and expect to get into the playoffs. You are expected to get hot for a period of time. January did them in.

Well, one could argue that every loss cost them two points, so any two could have gotten them in the playoffs. My argument is that their winning streak put them right back in the playoff hunt again. Had they played event decent hockey during that next stretch, they would have made it in, but they instead dug themselves another hole.

 

Before their losing streak, they were exactly at a 94 point pace. After the January losing streak, they were 7.8 points below pace with 35 games to go. Their win streak brought them back to just 1.34 points below pace with 25 games left. However, after the slump that I mentioned, they were back to 6.3 points below pace with just 11 games to go. They had to get 19 points in the last 11 games to make it (8-0-3 or 9-2-1 or ...) That's a far deeper hole than they were in due to small number of games left to get out of it.

[nobody]

FLA, TB and EDM all suck, so the next 3 are very doable....plus the 6 day all-star break is a positive. Downside is the PHX, ANA portion; remember the sunday matinee last year vs. PHX? :wallbash: it has Lalime written all over it.

 

 

I wouldn't lump Edmonton in a suck category. They're 7-3 in January and our old friend Dwayne Roloson is doing a decent job for them again.

[R_Dudley]

I don't like rental players(because of the price you have to pay) unless a team is a serious cup contender. This team is not a serious cup contender.

Agreed. I think it can also disrupt the chemistry that you do have building. The players that come up are different in theory because they are playing in the same system and supposedly can be plugged into the spots they best fit without too much disruption. Change too many pieces and then have too change them again next season can be disruptive on a team still finding it's rythym.(e.g. see penguins this year). Another example just recently the defenseman have been sucessfully joining in the offensive zone rush and stepping up to the chances, was that just changed by design or did they finally start listening to coach? Either way they have jelled enough to comfortably change it up and improve their chances and defensman contributiion w/o sacrificing too much on the breakdowns giveaway side... That kind of play bodes well for being able to make some noise in a playoff series..

 

Well, one could argue that every loss cost them two points, so any two could have gotten them in the playoffs. My argument is that their winning streak put them right back in the playoff hunt again. Had they played event decent hockey during that next stretch, they would have made it in, but they instead dug themselves another hole.

 

Before their losing streak, they were exactly at a 94 point pace. After the January losing streak, they were 7.8 points below pace with 35 games to go. Their win streak brought them back to just 1.34 points below pace with 25 games left. However, after the slump that I mentioned, they were back to 6.3 points below pace with just 11 games to go. They had to get 19 points in the last 11 games to make it (8-0-3 or 9-2-1 or ...) That's a far deeper hole than they were in due to small number of games left to get out of it.

 

Very true but lets not forget they also looked a little spent at the end there as well. IMHO you need to factor into that a couple of things like the new responsibilites for the younger guy's to step up (Vanek, Roy, Stafford, ...) like never before and the record first time workload on Miller. I more inclined to consider those factors into how they didn't manage to adjust and have the ability/maturity to dig themselves outta the hole rather than just "they dug themselves into another hole"..

If what I am starting to see holds true they seem to be developing the ability to bounce back this year they didn't seem to have last year and are starting to build some confidence and momentum at the right time. How they approach any stretch of games is important because they learned after last years 8-2 it's difficult to maintain that level as the season winds down and all other teams press... Tonights another test to see if that's true.