Shocking News!!!! Connolly out with a sore back

[Two or less]

I always find these discussions funny on how great a player Timmy is, and how he is a top line type player when about 2-3 seasons ago (so in Timmy time, thats 1 full season played) almost everyone wanted to see him traded for used jocks and some stale pretzels, and putting him at the same level as Peters. He has the equivelant of 1 full season roughly, and can't stay healthy, yet now he is a mahjor key to the Sabres success?

 

The guy played 44 games last year and scored 40 points. Do the math.

 

The guy has a great sense with the puck and is very creative.

 

Connolly gets a 80 point season, we'll be a top 4 team. Mark my words. And i'd put money on it.

[Stoner]

And I think it's nothing more than people overanalyzing the situation. It's not an injury that he has a history with, nothing with the head or legs. The article even said that he practiced at full speed all weekend. It's just the preseason, you don't put any rostered player at risk if he's not 100%. Will he get hurt at some point, yeah, most likely. Pretty much everyone on this team will, but this is hardly a doom and gloom moment right now.

 

Thanks for the common sense.

[carpandean]

That is why I always have a :huh: look on my face whenever I read a fan stating how important Connolly is to the team. That is the problem. He shouldn't be important at all. He should be a spare part, a luxury, not a player this team can count on. He has proven he can't be counted on, yet all I seem to read is how great Tim is when he is healthy. That and 3 bucks :cry: will get you a cup of coffee.

 

This organization has made a horrible decision to count on Connolly for anything. Someone should be in his place, that can be counted on. Trade Max, trade Tallinder, do whatever it takes to get a #2 center (although some would argue that Roy isn't even a number 1).

I agree with what you are saying. However, saying he is an important part, while unfortunate, is not wrong. He definitely should not be counted on as an important part of this team (management's mistake), but given the personal they have, he is an important part. Compare this team's potential if Connolly plays 82 games vs. if he gets a concussion in game 1. There is a huge difference, so he is an important part. I, too, hope they do everything possible to pick up a #2 center, but until they do, a healthy Connolly is an important part of this team.

[inkman]

The guy played 44 games last year and scored 40 points. Do the math.

 

The guy has a great sense with the puck and is very creative.

 

Connolly gets a 80 point season, we'll be a top 4 team. Mark my words. And i'd put money on it.

 

What in the name of God leads you to believe he'll be healthy for 40 games let alone 80 games?

[inkman]

I agree with what you are saying. However, saying he is an important part, while unfortunate, is not wrong. He definitely should not be counted on as an important part of this team (management's mistake), but given the personal they have, he is an important part. Compare this team's potential if Connolly plays 82 games vs. if he gets a concussion in game 1. There is a huge difference, so he is an important part. I, too, hope they do everything possible to pick up a #2 center, but until they do, a healthy Connolly is an important part of this team.

 

I don't think anyone is arguing how good Connolly is, it's just that he shouldn't be counted on for 1 point let alone 80. This lies squarely in Darcy's lap.

[Two or less]

What in the name of God leads you to believe he'll be healthy for 40 games let alone 80 games?

 

Nothing. I was just saying, his health is a major concern for our success. We don't really NEED him to be a top 4-5 team if players like Max, Stafford and MacArthur/Gerbe surprise this season but IF Connolly stays healthy, even for 65 games, for a player like him that could be anywhere from a 60-70 point season and THAT would make us a very strong offensive team if our 2nd line center is getting that kind of point production. I am not debating if he can or can't stay healthy, all i'm saying is we have a better chance of mostly injury-free season by Connolly then Stafford scoring 30 goals or MacArthur hitting 40 points.

 

And i was quoted to my "Connolly's health is a concern to Sabres success" because IF he stays healthy majority/all of the season, we will be a top 4/5 team.

[shrader]

They are within $1.2 million of the floor with 22 players counted. They can easily attain the floor. The hang up with him is that he wants a short term deal and the team wants nothing less then a 3 year deal.

 

I take it that I should look at numbers that include more than 11 forwards, 4 defensemen, and 1 goalie, huh? Still, it's a pretty good situation for O'Sullivan. They're not going to fill $1.2 million worth of space with nothing but entry level guys and one roster spot. I guess they could go the last second cheap RFA route, but that can't be too appealing.

[Bmwolf21]

The guy played 44 games last year and scored 40 points. Do the math.

 

The guy has a great sense with the puck and is very creative.

 

Connolly gets a 80 point season, we'll be a top 4 team. Mark my words. And i'd put money on it.

For clarification's sake, he had 40 points in his 48 games played last year. That works out to .833 PPG, so an 82-game season would net him 68 points. (His best season in terms of PPG, not surprisingly, was 05-06, when he had .87 PPG. Anyone remember why scoring was up that year for finesse players?)

 

 

Going back to the original point - he played 48 games last year. (Missed 34 games)

 

And 2 games the year before. (Missed 80 games)

 

And 63 the year before that. (Missed 19 games)

 

And none the year prior to the lockout. (Missed 82 games)

 

For those doing the math, that is a grand total of 133 regular-season games missed since the lockout, and 215 over his last four seasons.

 

No one is saying he isn't talented or isn't a scoring threat, but they're saying he cannot and should not be counted on. Pray he stays healthy and hits that 80-point plateau, but don't be surprised when a little November injury nags into a a few missed games in December and leads to him shutting it down in February or being relegated to the press box every other game.

[Two or less]

^^ and thus our season going down the tubes unless we have some kind of a miracle from a Stafford, MacArthur or Gerbe..... like i said, his health is a vital part of our overall teams success. I know how many games he's missed and i know how unrealistic it is for him to play over 60 games, all i am saying, the longer he's healthy, the more chances we have of success, therefor benching him for meaningless games in September shouldn't worry anyone. That's all i'm saying.

[LabattBlue]

^^ and thus our season going down the tubes unless we have some kind of a miracle from a Stafford, MacArthur or Gerbe.....

The only problem is none of the players you listed are centers.

[That Aud Smell]

Connolly gets a 80 point season, we'll be a top 4 team. Mark my words. And i'd put money on it.

i love your posts and spirit, VM, i do -- so please take it the right way when i say that i also loved the internal disconnect of this post. on the one hand, you're forecasting something that i think everyone agrees is very, very unlikely to happen (connolly playing enough games (70+) to post 80 points) and, on the other, you're asking that your words be marked and saying you'd wager on this prediction coming to pass. just awesome.

 

from where i sit, there appears to be a continuum of playoff probability that's tied to the number of games that connolly plays at full-speed or thereabout. so, e.g., if connolly were to play 82 games at full tilt, we could put the probability of making the playoffs at a corresponding number: 82% -- but, say, if tinny were to play 35 games, we might peg the probability at 35% (it's over-simplified that way, but i sort of like its simplicity).

[carpandean]

I take it that I should look at numbers that include more than 11 forwards, 4 defensemen, and 1 goalie, huh? Still, it's a pretty good situation for O'Sullivan. They're not going to fill $1.2 million worth of space with nothing but entry level guys and one roster spot. I guess they could go the last second cheap RFA route, but that can't be too appealing.

They signed this year's #2 draft pick (Drew Doughty) to an entry-level contract that works out to something like $3.75 million per year, including signing bonuses (anyone know if those count toward the cap or not?), plus a few young guys to low-hit contracts.

[Two or less]

The only problem is none of the players you listed are centers.

 

You don't need to be a center to be a impact player. If we lose Connolly long term, we'll need something big and unexpected to happen to compete in the loaded Eastern Conference... something like for example a 30-goal season by Stafford and such. I don't know. But Roy, Pommer, Max and Vanek, the defense and Miller isn't going to carry us straight into the playoffs.

[nobody]

For clarification's sake, he had 40 points in his 48 games played last year. That works out to .833 PPG, so an 82-game season would net him 68 points. (His best season in terms of PPG, not surprisingly, was 05-06, when he had .87 PPG. Anyone remember why scoring was up that year for finesse players?)

Going back to the original point - he played 48 games last year. (Missed 34 games)

 

And 2 games the year before. (Missed 80 games)

 

And 63 the year before that. (Missed 19 games)

 

And none the year prior to the lockout. (Missed 82 games)

 

For those doing the math, that is a grand total of 133 regular-season games missed since the lockout, and 215 over his last four seasons.

 

No one is saying he isn't talented or isn't a scoring threat, but they're saying he cannot and should not be counted on. Pray he stays healthy and hits that 80-point plateau, but don't be surprised when a little November injury nags into a a few missed games in December and leads to him shutting it down in February or being relegated to the press box every other game.

 

 

This all means he's a young 27 right? Darcy better make sure they get him signed for another 7 years.

[That Aud Smell]

You don't need to be a center to be a impact player.

but you do need to be a center in order to be a ... center. right? :rolleyes:

[BetweenThePipes00]

I agree, I wish they would have brought in another center and looked at Connolly as a bonus ...

But here's the thing ... I know Hecht playing center is viewed by most around here as if they were asking Lalime to play the point on the power play in full goalie gear ... but is it THAT bad? Consider:

- He did a lot of the dirty work centers do away from the puck even when Briere was here. I'm not saying Briere was cruising around the neutral zone like Ovechkin, but he wasn't exactly getting his nose dirty behind the Sabres net either.

- He played center most of the time last season and put up 22-27-49 in 75 games, 0.65 ppg and was +1 ... Drury was 0.71 ppg and -3 ... not saying he is as good as Drury, of course, but the average No. 2 center on the playoff teams last season was between 45-55 points, most of them played the PP more than Hecht and he is above average in his own end. Him playing center is NOT what kept the Sabres out of the playoffs.

What they NEEDED was a No. 3 center who can win draws and let Gaustad center the 4th line and occasionally play wing ... Hecht was playing on the No. 2 line with Pomminstein either way, Connolly or not. So that's what I wish they had done ... gotten a No. 3 center and if Connolly is healthy, great, if not, Hecht is fine in that spot. Not OUTSTANDING, just solid. I'm more worried about Tallinder/Lydman playing better and the kids buying in to playing both ends than I am hecht as the No. 2 center.

[Two or less]

but you do need to be a center in order to be a ... center. right? :rolleyes:

 

Quit being a smart ass.

 

Besides, despite what someone said below about Gerbe playing wing, no way does he survive in this league anywhere but center. If Gerbe gets a call up from Lindy this season, he'll play center.

[shrader]

Quit being a smart ass.

 

Besides, despite what someone said below about Gerbe playing wing, no way does he survive in this league anywhere but center. If Gerbe gets a call up from Lindy this season, he'll play center.

 

Since everyone on this board is so ready to compare him to Theo Fleury, you may want to look up what position he played. Another very short, yet successful player (much taller than Gerbe though), Martin St. Louis, not a center. Then there's the fact that Gerbe hasn't played center at a meaningful level since at least his USNTDP days (and I'm not even sure on that), do you really think he's going to suddenly be able to make that switch, especially this year?

[Two or less]

Since everyone on this board is so ready to compare him to Theo Fleury, you may want to look up what position he played. Another very short, yet successful player (much taller than Gerbe though), Martin St. Louis, not a center. Then there's the fact that Gerbe hasn't played center at a meaningful level since at least his USNTDP days (and I'm not even sure on that), do you really think he's going to suddenly be able to make that switch, especially this year?

 

We'll see what Lindy does when he calls him up....

[nfreeman]

I agree, I wish they would have brought in another center and looked at Connolly as a bonus ...

But here's the thing ... I know Hecht playing center is viewed by most around here as if they were asking Lalime to play the point on the power play in full goalie gear ... but is it THAT bad? Consider:

- He did a lot of the dirty work centers do away from the puck even when Briere was here. I'm not saying Briere was cruising around the neutral zone like Ovechkin, but he wasn't exactly getting his nose dirty behind the Sabres net either.

- He played center most of the time last season and put up 22-27-49 in 75 games, 0.65 ppg and was +1 ... Drury was 0.71 ppg and -3 ... not saying he is as good as Drury, of course, but the average No. 2 center on the playoff teams last season was between 45-55 points, most of them played the PP more than Hecht and he is above average in his own end. Him playing center is NOT what kept the Sabres out of the playoffs.

What they NEEDED was a No. 3 center who can win draws and let Gaustad center the 4th line and occasionally play wing ... Hecht was playing on the No. 2 line with Pomminstein either way, Connolly or not. So that's what I wish they had done ... gotten a No. 3 center and if Connolly is healthy, great, if not, Hecht is fine in that spot. Not OUTSTANDING, just solid. I'm more worried about Tallinder/Lydman playing better and the kids buying in to playing both ends than I am hecht as the No. 2 center.

 

Good post.

[LabattBlue]

Quit being a smart ass.

 

Besides, despite what someone said below about Gerbe playing wing,no way does he survive in this league anywhere but center. If Gerbe gets a call up from Lindy this season, he'll play center.

The only size-wise comparable to Gerbe over the last 15 years is Theo Fluery and he played wing.

 

 

I see Shrader beat me to the punch. :oops:

[shrader]

We'll see what Lindy does when he calls him up....

 

Why not take a look at where Lindy's been playing him in the preseason games? Hell, Kennedy is getting the ice time at center and it wasn't his position either. Hell, watch where he ends up playing in Portland before you even worry about that call up.

[darksabre]

Gerbe plays more physical than half the team.

[ROC Sabres]

Gerbe plays more physical than half the team.

The saddest truth there is.

[LabattBlue]

Hell, watch where he ends up playing in Portland before you even worry about that call up.

Good point.