Brian Campbell

[Bmwolf21]

There are things I like about Liles, but if the Sabres are going to "bury" someone as the no. 5 defenseman, I hope that player comes cheaper than Liles will. They can grab a defenseman to "bury" from the current talent pool. On a team where the top D-man makes $3.3M, and only 3 defensemen make over $1M (I'm not counting on Numminen at this point), it doesn't make sense to spend more than $1M on a third-pairing guy.

Fair enough. I think there are two things to consider - first, the contracts signed by Tallinder, Lydman and Spacek were signed a couple years ago, so the market has changed and it's going to be hard to find a PP QB at less than what the top pairing is making; and second, if Liles brings some stability and gets the Buffalo PP clicking at a 20% rate and scores 40 points, then I am fine with him getting $3M to be a no.5/PP specialist.

 

The comment about "burying" him as no.5 was in response to those who watched him during the playoffs and decided that he wasn't good enough to be a top-4 guy, based on his alleged Kalinin-esque turnover rate (which was discounted.) My point is I would be fine with him as a no.5 as long as he produces on the PP.

[shack & duff]

I generally see the Slugs only when they play on local TV against the Rangers and Bruins. I remember an absolutely terrible Soupy game shortly before the trading deadline last year against the Rangers and some pretty bad games against the Bruins. There were a lot of posts here last season pointing out his propensity for goal-scoring turnovers, soft play and welcoming his departure.

 

We should move on and look for gritty stay at home defensive players.

[SabresFanInRochester]

I already addressed the miscommunication on the Soupy's press agent comment, so I'm done with that. I apologize if my original response offended you - that was not the intent and I can see how it could have been misconstrued.

 

Buffalo's PP struggled for the better part of the last two years, even when Soupy was here, so you'll have to forgive me when I believe that the return of Soupy is not necessarily going to automatically make the unit better. Yes, Brian does a good job of carrying the puck through the neutral zone, but he didn't carry it in nearly as much as people think. My thought is that we need someone who can get his shot through from the point and on-net consistently, and that is not an area at which Soupy excels.

 

Why is it ludicrous to compare the two? Do we know for sure that Liles has been the PP QB two years ago for the Avs? I seem to remember Rob Blake being a big part of the Avs' PP in 2005-06.

 

The question was whether or not he can be considered as a PP specialist, and the numbers I posted indicate that 57% of Liles stats comes from PP scoring, while PP scoring accounts for 39% of Soupy's numbers. Seems to me that indicates that Liles is better on the power-play than Soupy, and Soupy is a little better scoring at ES, which is why I suggested bringing JML on as a no.5 and using some of the money saved by not signing Brian to bring in the gritty veteran everybody wants.

So if I am putting words in your mouth with my argument, what is this? Find in my post where I said anything about dumping anyone for a bunch of $1M players, or find where I said that we need numbers. This team and this board have been begging for gritty, veteran players for two years now.

If we're spending $5M then IMO Liles +Stephane Yelle (as an example) >>>>>>>>>>>> Campbell, and it's not even close. Or if signing Liles means we still have room to sign someone like Orpik, then I'm all for it.

 

There's a good list of "available players" at NHLNumbers.com and you can sort by free agent status and salary. Right now there are a bunch of names that could help us and would come in around/under $2M. Stephane Yelle, Mike Peca, Steve Rucchin, Stu Barnes, Marty Reasoner, Kevyn Adams, Andrew Brunette, Cory Stillman, Martin Gelinas...all had 07/08 salaries in/around the $2M neighborhood.

I think they are both good skaters; I think Campbell has a harder shot, while Liles does a better job of getting his through from the point, especially on the PP (which is something we sorely lacked, even when we put Pominville and other forwards back there.) Having seen enough of both over the last couple years I think Soupy is a better passer in the neutral zone but I think Liles is better from the blueline in, so I think they are both good playmakers, just in different areas and game situations. Campbell seems to be much better with the breakout pass and jumping up in an odd-man rush, but I think Liles is much better distributing the puck from an offensive setup - i.e., from the PP point.

 

Like I said, you have always made pretty good sense, so I should have realized that there was a breakdown in the communication. My apologies for jumping all over you.

 

Regarding your post, I don't think it is fair to compare PP numbers. I don't know how frequently Liles was used on the PP, but I know Soupy was not always a PP guy. So to look at his stats, and say that over 100 more games, Liles has more PP goals is not a fair statement. The only way the comparison would work, would be if you knew how much ice time a player had during a PP, and you could adjust accordingly.

 

I embellished the 10 players at $1 million each. But it was to exaggerate my point about signing two average players at $2.5 million versus one stud at $5. (I don't think Campbell is that stud, by the way. He is a $4-4.5 million dollar d-man.) This team is not far off and one thing they don't need is just more numbers. They need a difference-maker, and you have to pay for that. If you sign multiple players at $2.5, you really don't fill a void, and you take cap money away from the stud. I think "settling" for Liles and then using that balance of $2.5 for another player as being the best decision. Spend $5 on a top 2 d-man. I think our forwards would improve significantly with a better defense.

[Bmwolf21]

Like I said, you have always made pretty good sense, so I should have realized that there was a breakdown in the communication. My apologies for jumping all over you.

 

Regarding your post, I don't think it is fair to compare PP numbers. I don't know how frequently Liles was used on the PP, but I know Soupy was not always a PP guy. So to look at his stats, and say that over 100 more games, Liles has more PP goals is not a fair statement. The only way the comparison would work, would be if you knew how much ice time a player had during a PP, and you could adjust accordingly.

 

I embellished the 10 players at $1 million each. But it was to exaggerate my point about signing two average players at $2.5 million versus one stud at $5. (I don't think Campbell is that stud, by the way. He is a $4-4.5 million dollar d-man.) This team is not far off and one thing they don't need is just more numbers. They need a difference-maker, and you have to pay for that. If you sign multiple players at $2.5, you really don't fill a void, and you take cap money away from the stud. I think "settling" for Liles and then using that balance of $2.5 for another player as being the best decision. Spend $5 on a top 2 d-man. I think our forwards would improve significantly with a better defense.

Fair enough - no worries. :thumbsup:

 

As for the PP TOI - looking at it year-year there seems to be enough of a discrepancy to be significant. This year (obviously split between two teams) was the closest - Campbell played ~351:00 on the PP, or 4:13/game, while Liles was at 376:00, or 4:39/game. So the question is, again - do you want a PP specialist/no.3-4-5 defenseman and another forward/or maybe Orpik, or do you want someone who is less of a threat on the PP but is better 5-on-5 - but not have the money/cap space to use elsewhere?

 

Liles did get a lot more PP time last year than Soupy did - Liles was on the ice for 357:00 of man-advantage time, or 5:02/game, while Soupy went for 287:00/3:30 per game. So that begs the question -- since Liles had much better years in 05-06 (82 GP, 14-35-49) and 06-07 (71 GP, 14-32-44) than 07-08 (81 GP, 6-26-32), when he was used as a PP specialist and had less ES time -- did the increase responsibilities (more TOI at ES) hurt his game? Would he be best as a PP specialist with limited 5-on-5 time? I think so, and that's why I think he would fit in nicely here. We need blueline help on the PP, we don't need another finesse-type player to be a top-2/3 guy, and we need to keep the salary under control.

 

On the whole, though - I believe the Soupy boat has sailed. I really don't see them bringing him back at $5M per, signing Miller and Pominville long-term and being active players in the FA market. I'll be pretty surprised if they find a way to bring him back, and frankly if they do and don't move someone like Lydman to make room for Soupy, then I'll be pretty disappointed, because we'll have a pretty soft top-4 once again.

[nfreeman]

The question was whether or not he can be considered as a PP specialist, and the numbers I posted indicate that 57% of Liles stats comes from PP scoring, while PP scoring accounts for 39% of Soupy's numbers. Seems to me that indicates that Liles is better on the power-play than Soupy, and Soupy is a little better scoring at ES, which is why I suggested bringing JML on as a no.5 and using some of the money saved by not signing Brian to bring in the gritty veteran everybody wants.

 

this was up for 5+ hours and nobody called BS? Am I the only one paying attention?

[Bmwolf21]

this was up for 5+ hours and nobody called BS? Am I the only one paying attention?

Why is it BS?

[nfreeman]

Why is it BS?

 

"57% of Liles stats comes from PP scoring, while PP scoring accounts for 39% of Soupy's numbers. Seems to me that indicates that Liles is better on the power-play than Soupy, and Soupy is a little better scoring at ES."

 

Just busting your chops on this item, but I don't think your conclusion logically follows from your data. What if Liles scored 10 pts in a season, 5.7 of which were on the PP, and Soupy scored 100, 39 of which were on the PP?

 

In any case, your other posts in this thread do make a persuasive case for Liles if he can be brought in at, say, $2.5 million per year, as opposed to Soupy, who will probably cost about $5.5 - $6 million per year. I had to jump in on the above though.

[Bmwolf21]

You're right, it's not a scientific breakdown of his ice time, scoring in different situations or anything like that, I'll grant you that much. I just looked at it as a percentage of his career points, and that conclusion is based on the established facts that over the last few years the two have played a similar # of games each season and neither has outscored the other by more than 20 points.

 

Liles - 4th year, age 27

312 GP, 44-115-159, +13; 21 PPG, 69 PPA, 90 PPP

 

Campbell - 8th year, age 28

410 GP, 35-159-194, +3; 11 PPG, 64 PPA, 75 PPP

 

 

90 PPP/159 Total Points = 56.603%

 

75 PPP/194 Total Points = 38.659%

 

Besides, if Soupy puts up a 100-pt season then I'd be fine with giving him a $6-8M deal. ;)

[inkman]

We should move on and look for gritty stay at home defensive players.

 

Can I get an Amen brotha!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

...and give it up for my band Sexual Chocolate!