my own roster analysis

[nfreeman]

No doubt, but for the cost, he would have been better than the alternative (moving Hecht to center or playing Kotalik and moving up Gaustad.) Like I said, he would have been a good option last August.

 

Carp, I must disagree. Peca had 8-26-34 last year -- essentially the same #s as Gaustad. Although I thought Goose (like most of our roster last year) had a disappointing year, I see him as a true 3rd line center. I wouldn't bump him to the 4th line in favor of Peca. And Peca certainly isn't a top 2 center. While I don't want Hecht playing center either, Peca doesn't solve that problem -- we're not putting him at center with Jochen and Pommer. Peca's just not good enough for that kind of ice time. And while I wouldn't be unhappy if he became our 4th-line center for the veteran minimum or close to it, this isn't really what we need.

 

Bottom line is that we have too many decent forwards and not enough good-to-excellent centers. Any forward we add needs to be a real difference-maker. Throwing another marginal one like Peca into the mix isn't going to solve our problems from last year.

 

Nice work on the compilation, Curse. (Didn't you do something similar for the playoff push this past year - are you by nature a compiler? ;) )

Anyway - I like the roster, but I still see it as one that's destined for the 7-10 range, with the most likely outcome being the 8 or 9 - not a team to hang your hat on. I'd like our chances a whole lot more if the 3 big needs can get addressed: D1/2, C2 and G2.

 

The market is going to go bananas for "Herb" Brooks Orpik, no way we should be the high bidder. That said, I was intrigued to learn the following about him: he was born in San Francisco, played 2 years of high school hockey in Buffalo (Nichols), and, like wee Nathan Gerbe, played his college hockey at BC.

 

Good post. I agree 100%.

[That Aud Smell]

I think [Orpik] will exceed Campbell's contract, and deservedly so.

while i won't necessarily dispute the "deservedly" piece, i tend to doubt this will prove to be the case.

[SabresFanInRochester]

while i won't necessarily dispute the "deservedly" piece, i tend to doubt this will prove to be the case.

 

When I wrote that, it was from a Buffalo perspective. I think a tough d-man is worth more than an offensive d-man right now, and I would pay more for that. Detroit's defense set the standard and there will be more demand for Orpik than Campbell, IMO. When it's all said and done, the contracts will be close, but Orpik will get more.

[X. Benedict]

I was talking to a friend of mine in Philly, and he says Hunter is gone and they need another d-man and Orpik is the perfect fit. Does Philly have a history of throwing large piles of cash at free agents? There will certainly be a bidding war and I think he will exceed Campbell's contract, and deservedly so.

 

There is no way Orpik will get more money than Campbell. Just won't happen.

Totally different skill sets, and pairing potentials.

 

Campbell is entering an agents dream scenario - a poor free agent market - plus a skill set that is in high demand.

 

Orpik brings grit....and will make a lot of money, but he is still 4-5 on a depth chart.

[nfreeman]

When I wrote that, it was from a Buffalo perspective. I think a tough d-man is worth more than an offensive d-man right now, and I would pay more for that. Detroit's defense set the standard and there will be more demand for Orpik than Campbell, IMO. When it's all said and done, the contracts will be close, but Orpik will get more.

 

 

There is no way Orpik will get more money than Campbell. Just won't happen.

Totally different skill sets, and pairing potentials.

 

Campbell is entering an agents dream scenario - a poor free agent market - plus a skill set that is in high demand.

 

Orpik brings grit....and will make a lot of money, but he is still 4-5 on a depth chart.

 

Pretty interesting question, and one I'm sure we'll take note of on July 1-2 -- since both will be signed in the 1st 36 hours of FA. I'll agree with XB that Soupy will get more, but I'll disagree that Orpik is 4-5 on a D depth chart. I think he's more like a solid #3 -- ie a solid 2nd pairing guy -- and can play on the top pairing if needed (as he did frequently for Pittsburgh in the playoffs). SFiR's position (and of course Orpik's) is also helped by the huge dose of publicity/hype that Orpik reaped during the finals. The contracts will be closer than would have been the case before the playoffs, that's for sure.

 

I'd guess Orpik gets $4.25 - $4.75 million per year, while Soupy gets $5.25 - $5.75 million per year. Both will probably get 5+ year deals.

[Bmwolf21]

The question on Campbell is this - how much (if any) does his sub-par playoffs impact his price tag? He had a career year scoring-wise - 8-54-62 (although that cheatin' bastard has one game more than the rest of the league) but he struggled in the postseason.

[That Aud Smell]

I'd guess Orpik gets $4.25 - $4.75 million per year, while Soupy gets $5.25 - $5.75 million per year. Both will probably get 5+ year deals.

i think the disparity's about right (I'm taking your low-end for Orpik and your high-end for Campbell) - but unless the market has softened, or the GM's have regained their collective sanity (doubtful), I'd say that Orpik's annualized number will be right around 5MM (I can see him getting 6/32, e.g.), and Campbell's will be ~6.5MM (i'm guessing 7/45).

[SabresFan526]

This Orpik discussion is really interesting. In my opinion, I'd say before July 1st, his value is really around $3.5-$4 million/year. In the post July 1st market, though, I do think his value goes up a lot. The best comparable for Orpik is the contract Scott Hannan signed last year with Colorado at $4.5 million/year. If you assume the market has gone up for that type of player, Orpik now commands around $5 million/year if you account for annual hockey salary inflation. It's kind of ridiculous for a defensive defenseman getting that much, but I think if you use the Hannan comparable, add hockey inflation, and think that Orpik is better than Hannan (which I'm not 100% convinced of) you are actually looking at Orpik going for $5 million/year. The trend of the last three years would dictate this as in 2006, Jay McKee signed a 4 year deal at $4 million/season. Last year, Hannan signed a 4 year deal at $4.5 million per season. So, most likely, that does mean Orpik goes at 4 years at $5 million per if the trend plays out that the best defensive defenseman on the market annually gets $500K more than the previous year's best defensive defenseman. The question becomes is Orpik worth $5 million/year that you didn't want to give to Campbell back in August of 2007?

 

As for Campbell, again, it's a similar situation. If he signs prior to July 1st, I imagine San Jose signs him at $5.5 million/year. In the post July 1st market, based on trends over the last few years, he becomes a $6.5 million player. If we agree that Campbell is overall a better defenseman that Souray, then we are looking at Campbell definitely making more than $5.4 million/year Souray signed for last year in Edmonton excluding the hockey inflation premium. If we think Campbell is about the same as Markov's $5.75 million, then Campbell goes in the $6-$6.25 million/year range because of the hockey inflation premium. If we think Campbell is in the upper echelon of NHL defenseman (Phaneuf, Chara, Lidstrom, Niedermeyer, Pronger, etc.) then with the hockey inflation premium, Campbell now becomes a $7 million/year player. If I were a guessing man, I would expect Campbell to be signed for about $6.5 million/year by some team as he's probably in the Markov/Rafalski category, but not in the top tier category.

 

If I'm Buffalo, I think the real need is to get a guy like Brooks Orpik and replace Campbell's production with JM Liles at a cheaper price. The other option is you just sign Liles to replace what you had with Campbell and hope and pray Weber becomes what McKee and Brooks Orpik are. Now, I think Weber could be that guy, but should you rush his development? I don't know the answer to that. It's a very interesting discussion. Just my thoughts.

[carpandean]

Carp, I must disagree. Peca had 8-26-34 last year -- essentially the same #s as Gaustad. Although I thought Goose (like most of our roster last year) had a disappointing year, I see him as a true 3rd line center. I wouldn't bump him to the 4th line in favor of Peca. And Peca certainly isn't a top 2 center. While I don't want Hecht playing center either, Peca doesn't solve that problem -- we're not putting him at center with Jochen and Pommer. Peca's just not good enough for that kind of ice time. And while I wouldn't be unhappy if he became our 4th-line center for the veteran minimum or close to it, this isn't really what we need.

But, but ... this was all Peca:

:thumbsup:

 

 

Seriously, though, you may be right, as he has definitely lost some of that edge he once had. It just would have been nice last year to have another true center. I hated having Hecht at center and we couldn't even move Gaustad up there (he wasn't terrible there, just ok, but better on faceoffs that Hecht), because then we had Kotalik on the third line (Yuck!). Between the two (Peca and Gaustad), they could have handled the third and fourth line regular duty and one of them could have moved up when Connolly was out, with Mair filling in on the fourth line. Peca certainly has more experience on a top line, though he may not be the best setup man. It also would have been nice to have another PK specialist to lighten the load on Pommer and Roy. Oh well, I don't see it as a good option this year (unless, as you said, it is to be a cheap 4th-line center/PK specialist, which is not an urgent need), so the discussion is moot. Back to this coming season ...

[X. Benedict]

Pretty interesting question, and one I'm sure we'll take note of on July 1-2 -- since both will be signed in the 1st 36 hours of FA. I'll agree with XB that Soupy will get more, but I'll disagree that Orpik is 4-5 on a D depth chart. I think he's more like a solid #3 -- ie a solid 2nd pairing guy -- and can play on the top pairing if needed (as he did frequently for Pittsburgh in the playoffs).

Interesting discussion and good post.

 

Playoffs are a bit of a different animal. I would be very surprised if Orpik started averaging anything over 20 min. a game for the regular season next year, wherever he is. Bad spring ice takes away some speed, and when Pittsburgh started trapping in the post-season, Orpik, with their forwards back, could play a hard physical game.

 

In the finals the Red Wings were trapping with a lead too.... Orpik didn't have to worry much about making Demitri Kalinin types of errors because by the time he turned around the Red Wings were already in the neutral zone. Although by then, Pittsburgh had pretty much given up slowing down the Red Wing entries and were just collapsing.

 

I really don't mean the 4-5 as a slight. He's a solid player, but anybody signing him for over $5 million (and there is a chance somebody will) is paying way too much.

[JohnRobertEichel]

Nice work on the compilation, Curse. (Didn't you do something similar for the playoff push this past year - are you by nature a compiler? ;) )

 

Yep, I took "The Official Stanley Cup Playoff Thread" all the way to the bitter end :( . It was still fun, though.

 

Great work on the thread input, guys :thumbsup:. My responses thus far:

 

1. I'm starting to agree with many of you who say Orpik will be too expensive for the Sabres this summer. Even so, we definitely need more of an Orpik-type defenseman than a Campbell type (assuming we can't add both types).

 

2. No Kolzig? I won't lose sleep over it. He was simply the first UFA goalie I could think of off the top of my head. My opinion on next year's back-up goalie is simply any vet but T-Blow.

 

3. Peca returning to Buffalo? HIGHLY doubtful. If the Sabres had no such interest last summer, I doubt they have any interest now. It's not like Peca's contract demands are any longer the hold-up...

 

4. I seriously doubt we trade Lydman. Him and Tallinder were our top pair in 05-06 and 06-07. Considering the coincidence of how many Sabres simultaneously regressed last year and how hard it is to generally find solid defensemen in this league, I just don't see it.

 

5. Numminen for another season? For the vet minimum, sure. But not for the contract we gave him last year. That $2 million extra should be allocated for a younger/higher-caliber free agent defenseman.

 

6. My opinion remains that Hecht is good enough to play C and Kotalik versatile enough to play either LW or RW at about the same level of ability.

 

7. Could we use another forward? Sure. But keep in mind that the 2007-2008 Sabres were 4th in scoring last year and very close to being 1st overall...this in spite of losing Briere and Drury, Afinogenov (stop laughing) and Connolly for stretches of games, as well as enduring the growing pains of Vanek and Stafford. We could ALWAYS get better at every position, but it just seems like such a low priority to me at this point in time. Another center who plays good defense would be nice, but the combination of a decent #2 goalie and 1 or 2 extra quality d-men would more than make up for the defensive deficiencies that kept us out of the playoffs last season.

 

8. I have zero problem keeping Michael Ryan as an energy-line center and Portland call-up, but I bet he will make the decision for Darcy and try his luck with a less forward-heavy franchise.

[FearTheReaper]

We desparatly need to move Max. We have a SURPLUS of offense,and upcoming stars like Gerbe and Kennedy can fill that void if nessacary. We need to resign Paille,Gaustad and Bernier to at least 3 year deals. I know we cant afford to let Miller and Pominville go into free agency,but equally important is the need to address our lack of size. Bernier is a big guy,who can also put up points. Gaustad is a WAR HORSE,we CANNOT let him go. Paille did more than Max and was only a line filler. Getting a guy like Orpik on the back end sounds great to the fans,but the real question is does it sound great to the management? My quess is they resign Miller,Pominville,Paille,Gaustad and Bernier to deals this summer,and go with(for the sake of saving money)Sekera,Pratt and Weber next year. It wont be enough for the playoffs,but its enough for Galisono's "budget hockey team".

 

What or who can we get for Max? And what do you guys think of moving Stafford or Kotalik out of buffalo?

[nfreeman]

This Orpik discussion is really interesting. In my opinion, I'd say before July 1st, his value is really around $3.5-$4 million/year. In the post July 1st market, though, I do think his value goes up a lot. The best comparable for Orpik is the contract Scott Hannan signed last year with Colorado at $4.5 million/year. If you assume the market has gone up for that type of player, Orpik now commands around $5 million/year if you account for annual hockey salary inflation. It's kind of ridiculous for a defensive defenseman getting that much, but I think if you use the Hannan comparable, add hockey inflation, and think that Orpik is better than Hannan (which I'm not 100% convinced of) you are actually looking at Orpik going for $5 million/year. The trend of the last three years would dictate this as in 2006, Jay McKee signed a 4 year deal at $4 million/season. Last year, Hannan signed a 4 year deal at $4.5 million per season. So, most likely, that does mean Orpik goes at 4 years at $5 million per if the trend plays out that the best defensive defenseman on the market annually gets $500K more than the previous year's best defensive defenseman. The question becomes is Orpik worth $5 million/year that you didn't want to give to Campbell back in August of 2007?

 

As for Campbell, again, it's a similar situation. If he signs prior to July 1st, I imagine San Jose signs him at $5.5 million/year. In the post July 1st market, based on trends over the last few years, he becomes a $6.5 million player. If we agree that Campbell is overall a better defenseman that Souray, then we are looking at Campbell definitely making more than $5.4 million/year Souray signed for last year in Edmonton excluding the hockey inflation premium. If we think Campbell is about the same as Markov's $5.75 million, then Campbell goes in the $6-$6.25 million/year range because of the hockey inflation premium. If we think Campbell is in the upper echelon of NHL defenseman (Phaneuf, Chara, Lidstrom, Niedermeyer, Pronger, etc.) then with the hockey inflation premium, Campbell now becomes a $7 million/year player. If I were a guessing man, I would expect Campbell to be signed for about $6.5 million/year by some team as he's probably in the Markov/Rafalski category, but not in the top tier category.

 

If I'm Buffalo, I think the real need is to get a guy like Brooks Orpik and replace Campbell's production with JM Liles at a cheaper price. The other option is you just sign Liles to replace what you had with Campbell and hope and pray Weber becomes what McKee and Brooks Orpik are. Now, I think Weber could be that guy, but should you rush his development? I don't know the answer to that. It's a very interesting discussion. Just my thoughts.

 

Good post. You are probably right on the inflation effect with respect to what Orpik will end up getting -- I wouldn't be surprised if it ends up being $5 million per year or more. It only takes one dumb GM with money to spend. However, I don't think Soupy is as good as Markov, and I would bet most NHL GMs don't either. OTOH, I can't say I'd be shocked if he ended up with $6 million per year.

 

I don't like the idea of rushing Weber into a full-time NHL role this year, and I suspect Darcy doesn't either.

 

Interesting discussion and good post.

 

Playoffs are a bit of a different animal. I would be very surprised if Orpik started averaging anything over 20 min. a game for the regular season next year, wherever he is. Bad spring ice takes away some speed, and when Pittsburgh started trapping in the post-season, Orpik, with their forwards back, could play a hard physical game.

 

In the finals the Red Wings were trapping with a lead too.... Orpik didn't have to worry much about making Demitri Kalinin types of errors because by the time he turned around the Red Wings were already in the neutral zone. Although by then, Pittsburgh had pretty much given up slowing down the Red Wing entries and were just collapsing.

 

I really don't mean the 4-5 as a slight. He's a solid player, but anybody signing him for over $5 million (and there is a chance somebody will) is paying way too much.

 

I agree that playoffs are different, and that Orpik isn't going to get more than 20 minutes or so per game. But 20 minutes is 2nd pair/borderline 1st pair ice time. My bottom line on him is that although he's not an elite player, he's a good, solid defenseman who provides plenty of wee-wees and vinegar -- and as such is inherently valuable. In any case I agree that $5 million is too much for him, and anyone giving him that much will be making a panic move.

 

4. I seriously doubt we trade Lydman. Him and Tallinder were our top pair in 05-06 and 06-07. Considering the coincidence of how many Sabres simultaneously regressed last year and how hard it is to generally find solid defensemen in this league, I just don't see it.

 

5. Numminen for another season? For the vet minimum, sure. But not for the contract we gave him last year. That $2 million extra should be allocated for a younger/higher-caliber free agent defenseman.

 

7. Could we use another forward? Sure. But keep in mind that the 2007-2008 Sabres were 4th in scoring last year and very close to being 1st overall...this in spite of losing Briere and Drury, Afinogenov (stop laughing) and Connolly for stretches of games, as well as enduring the growing pains of Vanek and Stafford. We could ALWAYS get better at every position, but it just seems like such a low priority to me at this point in time. Another center who plays good defense would be nice, but the combination of a decent #2 goalie and 1 or 2 extra quality d-men would more than make up for the defensive deficiencies that kept us out of the playoffs last season.

 

4. I agree -- Lydman isn't going anywhere.

 

5. There is no way Teppo is playing anywhere for the vet minimum. He can get more than that playing in Europe, where he'd be closer to home. There are a bunch of NHL teams that would give him at least $1.5 million per year. I expect him to play for the Sabres next year for about $1.8 - $2.2 million, and to play well.

 

7. I agree that scoring itself wasn't the problem last year. However, I'd go beyond that and say that talent wasn't the problem. The problem was a crying lack of leadership, mental toughness, size up the middle, grace under pressure and clutch scoring. We scored plenty of goals against Tampa. We hardly scored any against NJ, Pittsburgh, Montreal, NJ, etc. That's why we need an experienced #2 center. We need a guy who can win faceoffs, throw a check, score a goal in the 3rd period against a playoff team, and take the pressure off of Vanek, Roy, Max (if he's still here), Stafford, etc.

[shrader]

upcoming stars like Gerbe and Kennedy can fill that void if nessacary

 

The rest of the post is fine, but I don't understand comments like this one. The road to becoming an every day NHL player is such a long one and we'll be lucky if even one of these two becomes that guy. To be hoping for an immediate impact seems like a major stretch to me. Just look at the struggles of 3 or our most recent highly regarded talents, Stafford, Paille, and MacArthur. I think its safe to say that all 3 will be regulars at the NHL level from here on out, but that wasn't just handed to Paille or MacArthur. They both had to wait a year before even touching NHL ice and they came into the system just as highly regarded. You know what the major difference is though? Paille, MacArthur, and Stafford have size. Sure, MacArthur and Paille aren't giants, but they're both north of the 6 foot mark, something that is going to cause a lot of growing pains for Gerbe and Kennedy.

[nfreeman]

The rest of the post is fine, but I don't understand comments like this one. The road to becoming an every day NHL player is such a long one and we'll be lucky if even one of these two becomes that guy. To be hoping for an immediate impact seems like a major stretch to me. Just look at the struggles of 3 or our most recent highly regarded talents, Stafford, Paille, and MacArthur. I think its safe to say that all 3 will be regulars at the NHL level from here on out, but that wasn't just handed to Paille or MacArthur. They both had to wait a year before even touching NHL ice and they came into the system just as highly regarded. You know what the major difference is though? Paille, MacArthur, and Stafford have size. Sure, MacArthur and Paille aren't giants, but they're both north of the 6 foot mark, something that is going to cause a lot of growing pains for Gerbe and Kennedy.

 

Good post. People are dreaming if they expect anything out of the college kids this year.

[shrader]

Good post. People are dreaming if they expect anything out of the college kids this year.

 

There are some that you can expect to make the jump. I can't think of anyone from this past college season that should do it this year. Turris will probably get a good amount of playing time, but that has a lot to do with the Phoenix system. The elite talent leaves school so early now, but even most of them need some development time. The upperclassmen that turn pro now are more than likely going to need that time as well.

[Team Strike Force]

I like Orpik.

 

I think the Sabres should offer him 5 years, 5 million. :doh:

 

 

But if that doesn't work, another solid, defensive minded d-man is Mike Commodore. Would he command the same demand as Orpik? Maybe, but Orpik, I feel played himself into a new salary level in the playoffs. Commodore may be the cheaper buy.

[Team Strike Force]

There are some that you can expect to make the jump. I can't think of anyone from this past college season that should do it this year. Turris will probably get a good amount of playing time, but that has a lot to do with the Phoenix system. The elite talent leaves school so early now, but even most of them need some development time. The upperclassmen that turn pro now are more than likely going to need that time as well.

 

 

While we're talking about college people and defensemen, anyone have any idea about how well (and fast) Chris Butler should develop? I have high hopes for this guy, based on the little I know about him.

[shrader]

While we're talking about college people and defensemen, anyone have any idea about how well (and fast) Chris Butler should develop? I have high hopes for this guy, based on the little I know about him.

 

I don't know if anyone can say how he'll develop, but I think he may end up being the best of the three college signees. I think he fits the mold of an NHL player better than Kennedy or Gerbe. There does seem to be a bit of a logjam at that part of the depth chart right now though, so only time will tell.

[X. Benedict]

I like Orpik.

 

I think the Sabres should offer him 5 years, 5 million. :doh:

But if that doesn't work, another solid, defensive minded d-man is Mike Commodore. Would he command the same demand as Orpik? Maybe, but Orpik, I feel played himself into a new salary level in the playoffs. Commodore may be the cheaper buy.

 

Commodore should come much cheaper, but I really think he's more limited than Orpik.

Maybe a little cagier, and not as good on the PK or blocking shots and at his worst he gets caught standing still. Commodore does have better up-ice vision and is pretty huge and will drop the gloves. I don't know if I'm crazy about the idea, but he's certainly an option.

[Bmwolf21]

If Commodore comes to Buffalo tell him to leave the stupid robe and crocs in Ottawa or send them back to NASCAR country...:death:

[X. Benedict]

If Commodore comes to Buffalo tell him to leave the stupid robe and crocs in Ottawa or send them back to NASCAR country...:death:

 

Ronald McDonald on Ice.

[ROC Sabres]

Larry Quinn was on WGR this morning with some interesting comments.

Link

 

Full interview will probably be in the audio vault soon.

[tom webster]

Larry Quinn was on WGR this morning with some interesting comments.

Link

 

Full interview will probably be in the audio vault soon.

 

$49 to $50 million could lead to some significant additions, especially if they can find a way out of the Max contract.

 

On another note, listening to the staff talk about money shows how little they know about how the cap works. They are trying to work out the payroll and keep counting Pominville and Miller's contracts into this year's equation.

[ROC Sabres]

$49 to $50 million could lead to some significant additions, especially if they can find a way out of the Max contract.

 

On another note, listening to the staff talk about money shows how little they know about how the cap works. They are trying to work out the payroll and keep counting Pominville and Miller's contracts into this year's equation.

Yea, they said they were counting it for this year because they are factoring in what they are going to be costing the next couple of years. So if we did want to sign a UFA that number would be included.