my own roster analysis

[JohnRobertEichel]

I took an early look at what our 23-man roster could look like next year, and I came away surprisingly optimistic about both the immediate and long-term future of our Sabres. We have a really nice core of young talent that can be kept under the salary cap, and hopefully last year's miserable season was a good learning experience that some of the younger guys used to build those all-important leadership skills.

 

Quick summary: we have 2 glaring roster holes that should be filled from outside the franchise (backup veteran goalie, top defenseman), 4 RFA's who deserve to be re-signed (Gaustad, Paille, Bernier, MacArthur), and 2 rising NHL stars that Regier cannot risk exposing on the open market next summer (Miller, Pominville).

 

Here's the roster outline that helped me reach my conclusions. I used a standard 9 W/7 D/5 C/2 G format. Contract length/status for each player is included, and the actual cap numbers I omitted here can be found at http://www.nhlnumbers.com/overview.php?team=BUF. Let me know where you think I might have gone wrong:

 

G1 Ryan Miller (1 year, UFA) --- must extend contract

G2 ??? How about Kolzig from Washington?

 

D1 ??? How about Orpik from Pittsburgh?

D1 Jaroslav Spacek (1 year, UFA)

D2 Toni Lydman (2 years, UFA)

D2 Henrik Tallinder (2 years, UFA)

D3 Andrej Sekera (1 year, RFA)

D3 Mike Weber (2 years, RFA)

D4 Nathan Paetsch (2 years, UFA)

 

LW1 Thomas Vanek (6 years, UFA)

LW2 Daniel Paille (RFA) --- must re-sign

LW3 Clarke MacArthur (RFA) --- must re-sign

LW4 Ales Kotalik (1 year, UFA)

LW5 Andrew Peters (1 year, UFA)

 

C1 Derek Roy (5 years, UFA)

C2 Jochen Hecht (4 years, UFA)

C3 Tim Connolly (1 year, UFA)

C4 Paul Gaustad (RFA) --- must re-sign

C5 Adam Mair (2 years, UFA)

 

RW1 Drew Stafford (1 year, RFA)

RW2 Steve Bernier (RFA) --- must re-sign

RW3 Jason Pominville (1 year, RFA) --- must extend contract

RW4 Patrick Kaleta (1 year, RFA)

 

Vets that we can safely let go:

 

G Jocelyn Thibault (UFA)

D Teppo Numminen (UFA)

D Nolan Pratt (UFA)

D Dmitri Kalinin (UFA)

C Michael Ryan (UFA)

 

Players that we can/should probably trade for draft picks/defensemen prospects:

 

RW Maxim Afinogenov (1 year, UFA)

[Buffalo Fan]

I took an early look at what our 23-man roster could look like next year, and I came away surprisingly optimistic about both the immediate and long-term future of our Sabres. We have a really nice core of young talent that can be kept under the salary cap, and hopefully last year's miserable season was a good learning experience that some of the younger guys used to build those all-important leadership skills.

 

Quick summary: we have 2 glaring roster holes that should be filled from outside the franchise (backup veteran goalie, top defenseman), 4 RFA's who deserve to be re-signed (Gaustad, Paille, Bernier, MacArthur), and 2 rising NHL stars that Regier cannot risk exposing on the open market next summer (Miller, Pominville).

 

Here's the roster outline that helped me reach my conclusions. I used a standard 9 W/7 D/5 C/2 G format. Contract length/status for each player is included, and the actual cap numbers I omitted here can be found at http://www.nhlnumbers.com/overview.php?team=BUF. Let me know where you think I might have gone wrong:

 

G1 Ryan Miller (1 year, UFA) --- must extend contract

G2 ??? How about Kolzig from Washington?

 

D1 ??? How about Orpik from Pittsburgh?

D1 Jaroslav Spacek (1 year, UFA)

D2 Toni Lydman (2 years, UFA)

D2 Henrik Tallinder (2 years, UFA)

D3 Andrej Sekera (1 year, RFA)

D3 Mike Weber (2 years, RFA)

D4 Nathan Paetsch (2 years, UFA)

 

LW1 Thomas Vanek (6 years, UFA)

LW2 Daniel Paille (RFA) --- must re-sign

LW3 Clarke MacArthur (RFA) --- must re-sign

LW4 Ales Kotalik (1 year, UFA)

LW5 Andrew Peters (1 year, UFA)

 

C1 Derek Roy (5 years, UFA)

C2 Jochen Hecht (4 years, UFA)

C3 Tim Connolly (1 year, UFA)

C4 Paul Gaustad (RFA) --- must re-sign

C5 Adam Mair (2 years, UFA)

 

RW1 Drew Stafford (1 year, RFA)

RW2 Steve Bernier (RFA) --- must re-sign

RW3 Jason Pominville (1 year, RFA) --- must extend contract

RW4 Patrick Kaleta (1 year, RFA)

 

Vets that we can safely let go:

 

G Jocelyn Thibault (UFA)

D Teppo Numminen (UFA)

D Nolan Pratt (UFA)

D Dmitri Kalinin (UFA)

C Michael Ryan (UFA)

 

Players that we can/should probably trade for draft picks/defensemen prospects:

 

RW Maxim Afinogenov (1 year, UFA)

 

 

I agree there is reason for optimism. Depending on who you get for the extra D man, I think TEppo might be a keeper for 1 more year. His calmness was DEFINITELY missed this past season. I liked watching Orpik in th playoffs. The guy seemed to hit everything that moved. I think I would rather see Lydman moved. He seems SO weak in front of the net and in the corners to me.

 

The big "if" in this senario is if Timmy stays healthy. Then I really like what you've outlined here.

[stenbaro]

I took an early look at what our 23-man roster could look like next year, and I came away surprisingly optimistic about both the immediate and long-term future of our Sabres. We have a really nice core of young talent that can be kept under the salary cap, and hopefully last year's miserable season was a good learning experience that some of the younger guys used to build those all-important leadership skills.

 

Quick summary: we have 2 glaring roster holes that should be filled from outside the franchise (backup veteran goalie, top defenseman), 4 RFA's who deserve to be re-signed (Gaustad, Paille, Bernier, MacArthur), and 2 rising NHL stars that Regier cannot risk exposing on the open market next summer (Miller, Pominville).

 

Here's the roster outline that helped me reach my conclusions. I used a standard 9 W/7 D/5 C/2 G format. Contract length/status for each player is included, and the actual cap numbers I omitted here can be found at http://www.nhlnumbers.com/overview.php?team=BUF. Let me know where you think I might have gone wrong:

 

G1 Ryan Miller (1 year, UFA) --- must extend contract

G2 ??? How about Kolzig from Washington?

 

D1 ??? How about Orpik from Pittsburgh?

D1 Jaroslav Spacek (1 year, UFA)

D2 Toni Lydman (2 years, UFA)

D2 Henrik Tallinder (2 years, UFA)

D3 Andrej Sekera (1 year, RFA)

D3 Mike Weber (2 years, RFA)

D4 Nathan Paetsch (2 years, UFA)

 

LW1 Thomas Vanek (6 years, UFA)

LW2 Daniel Paille (RFA) --- must re-sign

LW3 Clarke MacArthur (RFA) --- must re-sign

LW4 Ales Kotalik (1 year, UFA)

LW5 Andrew Peters (1 year, UFA)

 

C1 Derek Roy (5 years, UFA)

C2 Jochen Hecht (4 years, UFA)

C3 Tim Connolly (1 year, UFA)

C4 Paul Gaustad (RFA) --- must re-sign

C5 Adam Mair (2 years, UFA)

 

RW1 Drew Stafford (1 year, RFA)

RW2 Steve Bernier (RFA) --- must re-sign

RW3 Jason Pominville (1 year, RFA) --- must extend contract

RW4 Patrick Kaleta (1 year, RFA)

 

Vets that we can safely let go:

 

G Jocelyn Thibault (UFA)

D Teppo Numminen (UFA)

D Nolan Pratt (UFA)

D Dmitri Kalinin (UFA)

C Michael Ryan (UFA)

 

Players that we can/should probably trade for draft picks/defensemen prospects:

 

RW Maxim Afinogenov (1 year, UFA)

Still weak at center..Need a leader who can win faceoffs kill penalties tough 2 way man...Orpik is gonna get between 5-6 mill if youre willing to pay it ( I am) get him. I still think another tough defensman is needed even if they sign Orpik. Pominville needs to be resigned he is gonna cost a bundle his numbers matched Heatleys and his agent is a tough negotiator...Still need a older point producing forward someone to push Bernier and Staffords spot, dont let them get too comfortable make em earn it..Other than that I like it...

[SabresFan526]

I'd rather Hecht be playing LW instead of at C. In my opinion, the biggest needs are at C and D because Tim Connolly's health just cannot be trusted at all. I think Darcy needs to swing a deal to bring in a true second line centerman to play with Hecht and Pominville. I'm thinking Jokinen or Marleau or someone who can play the PK, PP, good faceoff man, play defense, and can contribute offensively. I think the depth at forward should be used to create some cap space so that the Sabres can acquire Orpik and Liles on the UFA market. I would trade one of Lydman or Tallinder to make room for an Orpik. I also do not have a problem re-signing Teppo as a 7th defenseman and Paetsch as 8th as invariably injuries will consume this blueline next year as it always seems to. Just my opinion.

[SabresFanInRochester]

I agree there is reason for optimism. Depending on who you get for the extra D man, I think TEppo might be a keeper for 1 more year. His calmness was DEFINITELY missed this past season. I liked watching Orpik in th playoffs. The guy seemed to hit everything that moved. I think I would rather see Lydman moved. He seems SO weak in front of the net and in the corners to me.

 

The big "if" in this senario is if Timmy stays healthy. Then I really like what you've outlined here.

 

Very well said regarding the optimism. Teppo should be around for another year, IMO. I think Orpik would be the perfect fit and with Kalinin's money gone, and Max's money (hopefully) leaving, you have to find a way to pay him. I think Lydman has to stay, however. He has one HUGE screw-up every game, but that being said, he is pretty consistent as a 2nd line d-man, especially paired with Tallinder.

[deluca67]

I have to ask why Clarke MacArthur is considered a must resign. I don't mind him as a call up for a few games. I wouldn't want to see him full time on the Sabres roster.

[Chief Enabler]

Nice work McKinley :thumbsup:

 

I think Kolzig is done; Aebischer chatter? :unsure: check this read quoted from Enroth: Why does he say Aebischer? :unsure:

 

Saturday, June 7, 2008

Enroth talks summer plans, Buffalo

Below is the best translation of a brief interview that Jhonas Enroth did with HockeySverige this week.

 

Jhonas Enroth, 19, goalkeeper

From Sodertalje to Buffalo Sabres (former club: Huddinge IK)

 

What do you know about the Sabres?

-- The first goalie Ryan Miller is known quite well, but it is not clear who will be backup, although I think the team will sign someone like David Aebischer or another. I have been in Buffalo in the past and the city and the team seems equally good organization. But in general, I know no one on the team except Dennis Persson. But I read on your website yesterday that he will be lent to a Swedish club the first year. Although some feel safe again some of the other guys from past camps.

 

What also sticks out in your post is Spacek, I like him when healthy, but he must take a paycut if to be re-signed here.

[JohnRobertEichel]

I have to ask why Clarke MacArthur is considered a must resign. I don't mind him as a call up for a few games. I wouldn't want to see him full time on the Sabres roster.

 

Maybe a "must re-sign" claim was a bit of a stretch on my part? Nevertheless, I thought he did a great job whenever he was called up to play last year. I think he's shown as much potential as Pominville displayed at the equivalent stage of his career. None of the 4 RFA's are "must signs," really, but the production/potential combo of each is worth the price tag they'll command on the market this summer.

[bob_sauve28]

I think you have to love our forwards. They score, are getting bigger and are becoming more seasoned veterans.

 

Defense needs help. As I watched the playoffs unfold I kept thinking how bad Lydman played this year compared to what I was watching. Tallinder needs to get back to where he was. I'm all for Teppo coming back, if he wants to. Sekera and Webber are keepers and will hopefully be the guys for the long term.

 

 

WE NEED A BACK UP GOALIE! I know Miller was not ready last year to play over 70 games and he might be able to handle it this year, but no team goes far without a backup that can play well. Is Conklin available?

[bob_sauve28]

I'm keeping Mike Ryan if I can. I know he isn't anything special, but the kid can skate really well and works hard. Nice to have him around as a utility player

[carpandean]

I'd rather Hecht be playing LW instead of at C. In my opinion, the biggest needs are at C and D because Tim Connolly's health just cannot be trusted at all. I think Darcy needs to swing a deal to bring in a true second line centerman to play with Hecht and Pominville. I'm thinking Jokinen or Marleau or someone who can play the PK, PP, good faceoff man, play defense, and can contribute offensively.

Yes, please for the love of all things hockey, take Hecht out of the Center slot. I still believe that one of two things that hurt us more than anything else this year was having only 4 true centers (Roy, Connolly, Gaustad and Mair), only two of which are top-line caliber (Roy and Connolly) and one of those is injury-prone. Hecht is not a true center. He's ok in a pinch, but not someone who I want getting regular time there. Likewise, Gaustad is good, but not top-line good and the Kotalik experiment was a disaster. We either need to pick up a true top line center and take Connolly out of the full-time, top-line equation, or pick up a third-line shut-down center capable of playing on the top-line when needed (e.g., Peca.)

 

Other than that, I agree that we need a good backup goalie and a physical, top-pair defenseman.

 

As for Mike Ryan, he actually is a good cheap utility player (fast enough to make teams cover him and good on the PK), but he will likely be lost due to depth. Maybe he'll be in Portland next year. Could he become a career AHL veteran?

 

Oh, also, I believe Ales is a right winger, not a left winger.

[james duncan]

D--I like Teppo, but at his salary, I'd make due with Paetsch and Pratt (7 and 8)--Pratt can't play every night and wore out as the season went on doing so but he's fine in spot duty. Weber and Sekera look too good not to keep playing together. Nothing to substantiate it, but I've got a feeling Lydman was playing hurt. Tallinder hasn't been the same since that little Recchi broke his arm. He concerns me more than Lydman who I think will bounce back nicely. That leaves a partner for Spacek. I'm an Orpik believer. Though signing its own free agents has been a problem for us. Signing someone else's...?

 

G--Enroth complicates a long term deal with Miller I think. This could be interesting depending upon how far along the organization thinks he is. Ruff will screw up whatever backup we sign. It's his only real fault as a coach as I see it.

 

F--OK. I LOVE Connolly's potential. But how long do we have to keep saying that? I really hope he stays healthy...and is playing somewhere else as well as Max and Kotalik. I suspect Al will be back, not getting enough time to be effective (and not earning it). And that Connolly will be playing out his contract here--saving the spot for Gerbe in 09-10.

Agree with 526. I never want to see Hecht at center again. DeLuca is right about MacArthur. The kid has had more time than just about any other kid on the roster and hasn't shown enough. Flashes, yes. But not a must-sign.

 

I'm looking forward to how the farm team develops as the year goes on. The Sabres roster shows a lot of promise and is not the pushover on size/grit as it once was and should still be able to score. Particularly if Connolly or the new #2 center have a decent year. If the friggin Fly-boys made it to the ECF this year, we can be there next year.

[shrader]

I'm keeping Mike Ryan if I can. I know he isn't anything special, but the kid can skate really well and works hard. Nice to have him around as a utility player

 

The ideal situation would be if they could get him to accept a two-way deal. Send him down to Portland, but if someone claims him on waivers, its no big loss. I don't know how likely he would be to take that two-way deal though, since he wasn't on one last year.

 

McKinley, I'll say one thing. Nice work on the use of "re-sign". :thumbsup:

[ROC Sabres]

I think you have to love our forwards. They score, are getting bigger and are becoming more seasoned veterans.

 

Defense needs help. As I watched the playoffs unfold I kept thinking how bad Lydman played this year compared to what I was watching. Tallinder needs to get back to where he was. I'm all for Teppo coming back, if he wants to. Sekera and Webber are keepers and will hopefully be the guys for the long term.

WE NEED A BACK UP GOALIE! I know Miller was not ready last year to play over 70 games and he might be able to handle it this year, but no team goes far without a backup that can play well. Is Conklin available?

 

I agree on all points. My biggest disappoint I would have to say over the last two season, is the pair of Lydman and Tallinder. They were really solid players but ever since Tallinder broke his arm he hasn't been the same. Not exactly sure why he would be afraid to hit someone with titanium in their arm. If you ask me, that's a concealed weapon in its own, USE IT!

 

Back up goalie, a must. I think that once July 1st hits, we need someone signed. Don't care if we get Orpik, Liles, Marleau, etc. If we don't get a solid #2 in net, doesn't matter.

 

EDIT: Just checked the numbers. We were 4th overall for Goals For and 22nd for Goals Against. So we all know the need isn't up front, but behind the blue line.

[awill29]

I'd rather Hecht be playing LW instead of at C. In my opinion, the biggest needs are at C and D because Tim Connolly's health just cannot be trusted at all. I think Darcy needs to swing a deal to bring in a true second line centerman to play with Hecht and Pominville. I'm thinking Jokinen or Marleau or someone who can play the PK, PP, good faceoff man, play defense, and can contribute offensively.

 

Mike Peca would be absolutely perfect.

 

1) He allows Connolly to center L2 when (or if?) Timmy's healthy. He'd probably play L3 and bump Goose down to L4. Mair might be shifted to the wing on L4.

2) He can easily fill the gap at L2 when Timmy's hurt. A second line of Hecht-Peca-Pominville is a great secondary scoring line AND a shut-down line. All 3 are good defensively, Peca can win the draw and is a leader, and all 3 can fill the net.

3) He can be brought in for under 2M. Last offseason, Peca said he'd love to come back to Buffalo. He's also getting older(which isn't a bad thing for this team--experience is good), and I doubt that he'd choose any other offer over Buffalo. They need a leader, he's a UFA, it's basically a perfect fit.

[carpandean]

Mike Peca would be absolutely perfect.

1) He allows Connolly to center L2 when (or if?) Timmy's healthy. He'd probably play L3 and bump Goose down to L4. Mair might be shifted to the wing on L4.

2) He can easily fill the gap at L2 when Timmy's hurt. A second line of Hecht-Peca-Pominville is a great secondary scoring line AND a shut-down line. All 3 are good defensively, Peca can win the draw and is a leader, and all 3 can fill the net.

3) He can be brought in for under 2M. Last offseason, Peca said he'd love to come back to Buffalo. He's also getting older(which isn't a bad thing for this team--experience is good), and I doubt that he'd choose any other offer over Buffalo. They need a leader, he's a UFA, it's basically a perfect fit.

I've been saying that for a while. It seemed almost silly last summer, but in retrospect, he would have been a big help for a very low price ($1.315 million, plus performance bonuses, which totaled $600k last season.) I don't know if he will still be a viable option this year, but going back to August of last year, I think he would have helped.

[nfreeman]

Mike Peca would be absolutely perfect.

 

1) He allows Connolly to center L2 when (or if?) Timmy's healthy. He'd probably play L3 and bump Goose down to L4. Mair might be shifted to the wing on L4.

2) He can easily fill the gap at L2 when Timmy's hurt. A second line of Hecht-Peca-Pominville is a great secondary scoring line AND a shut-down line. All 3 are good defensively, Peca can win the draw and is a leader, and all 3 can fill the net.

3) He can be brought in for under 2M. Last offseason, Peca said he'd love to come back to Buffalo. He's also getting older(which isn't a bad thing for this team--experience is good), and I doubt that he'd choose any other offer over Buffalo. They need a leader, he's a UFA, it's basically a perfect fit.

 

 

I've been saying that for a while. It seemed almost silly last summer, but in retrospect, he would have been a big help for a very low price ($1.315 million, plus performance bonuses, which totaled $600k last season.) I don't know if he will still be a viable option this year, but going back to August of last year, I think he would have helped.

 

Gents, there's a reason Peca is essentially a journeyman at this point, with none of his teams interested in re-signing him. He's just not what he used to be. If he were, I'd be right there with you, but he ain't. It's time to move on.

[X. Benedict]

Still weak at center..Need a leader who can win faceoffs kill penalties tough 2 way man...Orpik is gonna get between 5-6 mill if youre willing to pay it ( I am) get him. I still think another tough defensman is needed even if they sign Orpik. Pominville needs to be resigned he is gonna cost a bundle his numbers matched Heatleys and his agent is a tough negotiator...Still need a older point producing forward someone to push Bernier and Staffords spot, dont let them get too comfortable make em earn it..Other than that I like it...

 

If Orpik goes for 5-6 million, he is too much. I like him. But you have to land him well under 5.

Don't expect to see the Orpik of last month show up regularly. It just never works like that for the hitter/shot blockers.

[carpandean]

Gents, there's a reason Peca is essentially a journeyman at this point, with none of his teams interested in re-signing him. He's just not what he used to be. If he were, I'd be right there with you, but he ain't. It's time to move on.

No doubt, but for the cost, he would have been better than the alternative (moving Hecht to center or playing Kotalik and moving up Gaustad.) Like I said, he would have been a good option last August.

[X. Benedict]

I'm keeping Mike Ryan if I can. I know he isn't anything special, but the kid can skate really well and works hard. Nice to have him around as a utility player

He would be a very nice guy to sign to a two way.

He would be a veteran for Portland,

I think he would regularly clear waivers, and would be be good call-up depth.

[Bmwolf21]

He would be a very nice guy to sign to a two way.

He would be a veteran for Portland,

I think he would regularly clear waivers, and would be be good call-up depth.

The Sabres signing a veteran for Portland? Now you're just rubbing salt in Rochester's wounds... ;)

[X. Benedict]

Gents, there's a reason Peca is essentially a journeyman at this point, with none of his teams interested in re-signing him. He's just not what he used to be. If he were, I'd be right there with you, but he ain't. It's time to move on.

 

Talking about Peca, makes me wonder how much Craig Conroy would go for.

Let's get a Golden Knight back in the state. :beer:

 

 

 

(half joking, but I think I would prefer Conroy to Peca)

[X. Benedict]

The Sabres signing a veteran for Portland? Now you're just rubbing salt in Rochester's wounds... ;)

 

You're right! :lol:

[That Aud Smell]

Nice work on the compilation, Curse. (Didn't you do something similar for the playoff push this past year - are you by nature a compiler? ;) )

 

Anyway - I like the roster, but I still see it as one that's destined for the 7-10 range, with the most likely outcome being the 8 or 9 - not a team to hang your hat on. I'd like our chances a whole lot more if the 3 big needs can get addressed: D1/2, C2 and G2.

 

The market is going to go bananas for "Herb" Brooks Orpik, no way we should be the high bidder. That said, I was intrigued to learn the following about him: he was born in San Francisco, played 2 years of high school hockey in Buffalo (Nichols), and, like wee Nathan Gerbe, played his college hockey at BC.

[SabresFanInRochester]

Nice work on the compilation, Curse. (Didn't you do something similar for the playoff push this past year - are you by nature a compiler? ;) )

 

Anyway - I like the roster, but I still see it as one that's destined for the 7-10 range, with the most likely outcome being the 8 or 9 - not a team to hang your hat on. I'd like our chances a whole lot more if the 3 big needs can get addressed: D1/2, C2 and G2.

 

The market is going to go bananas for "Herb" Brooks Orpik, no way we should be the high bidder. That said, I was intrigued to learn the following about him: he was born in San Francisco, played 2 years of high school hockey in Buffalo (Nichols), and, like wee Nathan Gerbe, played his college hockey at BC.

 

I was talking to a friend of mine in Philly, and he says Hunter is gone and they need another d-man and Orpik is the perfect fit. Does Philly have a history of throwing large piles of cash at free agents? There will certainly be a bidding war and I think he will exceed Campbell's contract, and deservedly so.