Pominville's Worth

[stenbaro]

Just figured I would see what everyones' thoughts were on what they think Pominville is worth vs what he is going to get...

 

I think Jason is a 4-5 mill a yr player..

I think he gets between 5-6 mill maybe more depending on how he and his agent and the Sabres play this out...My feeling is the Sabres will want to sign him but the agent will be crazy to let him after seeing how much more money players have recieved leaving Buffalo...Thoughts????

[tom webster]

Just figured I would see what everyones' thoughts were on what they think Pominville is worth vs what he is going to get...

 

I think Jason is a 4-5 mill a yr player..

I think he gets between 5-6 mill maybe more depending on how he and his agent and the Sabres play this out...My feeling is the Sabres will want to sign him but the agent will be crazy to let him after seeing how much more money players have recieved leaving Buffalo...Thoughts????

 

Erat just signed $31.5 for 7. No way Pominville takes less then that.

[Bmwolf21]

I'd like to see a cap hit in the $5.5M-$6M range on a 5-year deal with annual escalating salaries from $5.25M to $6.5M -- but I think he could easily get $7M given the market and comparable players. Brad Richards has had similar numbers the last couple years and his cap hit is $7.8M - and Pominville is a much better two-way player.

[Bmwolf21]

Erat just signed $31.5 for 7. No way Pominville takes less then that.

That's only a $4.5M cap hit.

[BetweenThePipes00]

Well seeing as Nashville just gave Martin Erat $31.5 million for SEVEN years ($4.5/year), and he had 57 points and was a minus-3, I would say Pommer is going to command a lot more than between $4-5 million a year. I was on my way home when I heard this on the radio and they were talking about how great it was they locked up a "solid, second-line guy."

Pommer is a year younger, is a first-line guy (especially compared to Erat, even if technically you want to say the Roy line is Buffalo's "first line") and is a much more complete player than Erat. He hasn't missed a game due to injury in either of the past two seasons, and has 61 goals in those two years compared to 39 for Erat.

I don't think his agent would be crazy to let him sign, but he's not going to make it easy given the above facts. The worst part to me is the length of that Erat deal. His agent is already going to argue Pommer is worth more per season ... if the Sabres offer less than a 6 or 7 year deal that's going to up the ante even more because it could be argued if you are not going to offer that security you better throw in a bit more per year.

If I was his agent I would go in and start at 7 years, $42 million ... I could get talked down to $5.5 million for 6 maybe but ... we'll see. If they can get him for $5million a year I would call it great value given what Erat just got.

[BetweenThePipes00]

I'd like to see a cap hit in the $5.5M-$6M range on a 5-year deal with annual escalating salaries from $5.25M to $6.5M -- but I think he could easily get $7M given the market and comparable players. Brad Richards has had similar numbers the last couple years and his cap hit is $7.8M - and Pominville is a much better two-way player.

 

This is true but Richards got that contract under the old CBA, right? After they won the Cup? Plus Pommer is still a year from free agency ... if you get a long-term deal a year before free agency, you can't expect to get market value as if you were a free agent ... that's the point, you take a little hit for the security.

But yeah, if he hit the open market after another great year he could get $7 million I bet.

[stenbaro]

I'd like to see a cap hit in the $5.5M-$6M range on a 5-year deal with annual escalating salaries from $5.25M to $6.5M -- but I think he could easily get $7M given the market and comparable players. Brad Richards has had similar numbers the last couple years and his cap hit is $7.8M - and Pominville is a much better two-way player.

I wish he was a little bit more of a leader type and I would feel more comfortable with that type of a cap hit for Jason...Something just seems to be missing and I cant quite put my finger on it..If you are gonna pay soemone 7 mill per yr I would rather it be a Datsyuk or a player with some ring to it if that makes any sense...I could be way off here though..Somethin doesnt fit..LOL

[BetweenThePipes00]

I wish he was a little bit more of a leader type and I would feel more comfortable with that type of a cap hit for Jason...Something just seems to be missing and I cant quite put my finger on it..If you are gonna pay soemone 7 mill per yr I would rather it be a Datsyuk or a player with some ring to it if that makes any sense...I could be way off here though..Somethin doesnt fit..LOL

 

Four years ago when Datsyuk was Pomminstein's age he had a 57-point season ... not saying Pomminstein will go off like Datsyuk has, just sayin ... you are asking for leadership and "name recognition" out of a 25-year old and comparing him to a guy who will turn 30 this year ...

[tom webster]

That's only a $4.5M cap hit.

 

That was in response to Stenbaro talking about 4 to 5. I think if the term is right and they are agressive, 5.25 to 5.75 will get it done and I think they would be willing to have the first year start at around 4.

 

The Richards example has been used before, but I don't think anyone uses that contract as market value because it was so far out there as far as his regular season production.

[SabresFan526]

Pominville's worth to me is:

 

5 for $25 million

6 for $33 million or

7 for $40 million with escalating salaries for each year.

 

I think he could be had for any of the above deals. The future of this team are Roy, Vanek, Pominville, and Miller. They are the core and build around them.

[Bmwolf21]

This is true but Richards got that contract under the old CBA, right? After they won the Cup? Plus Pommer is still a year from free agency ... if you get a long-term deal a year before free agency, you can't expect to get market value as if you were a free agent ... that's the point, you take a little hit for the security.

But yeah, if he hit the open market after another great year he could get $7 million I bet.

Richards signed a 5 year, $39M contract after the team was eliminated from the 2006 playoffs, so it was under the current CBA and he was re-signed two months before becoming a UFA (here I thought we unrestricted free agents wouldn't even talk contact at that point - or at least that's what Darcy and Larry have told us.)

 

The problem is that Pominville has more leverage than the Sabres - he can play out his contract and watch his free agency value skyrocket with just an average season next year - and his agent is definitely going to remind him of that. Obviously there is risk to playing it out, since he could blow out a knee and lose value, but as stenbaro and I have already debated - that's much more likely to happen to an older player.

 

I wish he was a little bit more of a leader type and I would feel more comfortable with that type of a cap hit for Jason...Something just seems to be missing and I cant quite put my finger on it..If you are gonna pay soemone 7 mill per yr I would rather it be a Datsyuk or a player with some ring to it if that makes any sense...I could be way off here though..Somethin doesnt fit..LOL

After reading most of your posts, I get the impression that you aren't comfortable paying anyone not named Drury or Briere more than $4-5M. You've said essentially the same thing - he's got to prove he's worth it, something I don't like about his game - about both the Sabres' upcoming big free agents, Pominville and Miller.

[BetweenThePipes00]

The problem is that Pominville has more leverage than the Sabres - he can play out his contract and watch his free agency value skyrocket with just an average season next year - and his agent is definitely going to remind him of that. Obviously there is risk to playing it out, since he could blow out a knee and lose value, but as stenbaro and I have already debated - that's much more likely to happen to an older player.

That's the case for every guy though ... every player has that leverage, which is why the rule that you can't start even talking to them about a new deal until July one of their last season sucks ... they can already see the light at the end of the tunnel.

[Bmwolf21]

That was in response to Stenbaro talking about 4 to 5. I think if the term is right and they are agressive, 5.25 to 5.75 will get it done and I think they would be willing to have the first year start at around 4.

 

The Richards example has been used before, but I don't think anyone uses that contract as market value because it was so far out there as far as his regular season production.

It is way out there WRT his regular-season production - but you know Jason's agent is going to bring him up.

"Richards is worth $7.8 and gives you 45-60 points per season, and Jason is averaging 74 points/season over the last two years, so what is he worth?" Kills penalties, plays the power play, team leader...

[BetweenThePipes00]

Pominville's worth to me is:

 

5 for $25 million

6 for $33 million or

7 for $40 million with escalating salaries for each year.

 

I think he could be had for any of the above deals. The future of this team are Roy, Vanek, Pominville, and Miller. They are the core and build around them.

 

This is backwards ... the price per season is going to go UP the shorter the deal ... you can pay less per season if you give more security with a longer deal ...

[wonderbread]

I say we just let his contract play out and see if we can sign him in his last year of UFA! :blink:

[BetweenThePipes00]

I say we just let his contract play out and see if we can sign him in his last year of UFA! :blink:

If you were Pomminstein wouldn't you consider it? Takes two to tango ... he's going to want to sign but he's not going to come cheap.

[SabresFan526]

This is backwards ... the price per season is going to go UP the shorter the deal ... you can pay less per season if you give more security with a longer deal ...

A couple of things with my rationale. First you are putting a premium on the UFA years. Pominville is only an RFA after this contract is up, and could conceivably be signed for a one year deal. So, you are putting a premium on the UFA years like you do with Roy. Second, the built in assumption is that players hit their peak at the age of 29-31. Hence, you pay a huge premium for those years of the contract. Hence, the average goes up towards the end. If, Pominville were older say 28-30, your strategy makes sense because he has fewere good years left to play. For younger players, it's the opposite because they have more good years left to play and for each year you buy during their peak UFA years, you pay a premium for it. Either way, if we get him for any of those deals I stated before, he'll probably end up as a bargain still.

[stenbaro]

Richards signed a 5 year, $39M contract after the team was eliminated from the 2006 playoffs, so it was under the current CBA and he was re-signed two months before becoming a UFA (here I thought we unrestricted free agents wouldn't even talk contact at that point - or at least that's what Darcy and Larry have told us.)

 

The problem is that Pominville has more leverage than the Sabres - he can play out his contract and watch his free agency value skyrocket with just an average season next year - and his agent is definitely going to remind him of that. Obviously there is risk to playing it out, since he could blow out a knee and lose value, but as stenbaro and I have already debated - that's much more likely to happen to an older player.

After reading most of your posts, I get the impression that you aren't comfortable paying anyone not named Drury or Briere more than $4-5M. You've said essentially the same thing - he's got to prove he's worth it, something I don't like about his game - about both the Sabres' upcoming big free agents, Pominville and Miller.

I never wanted to resign Briere..Just Drury..Maybe you only read a couple of those then...Pominville has proved more than Miller imo..I dont think either of those 2 are worth what Drury meant to this team but this isnt about Drury i just asked what you thought Jason was worth and what he might get...I dont feel like turning this into another pissin contest about drury or briere..There is enough of those

[stenbaro]

anybody watching the standoff on the 90?

[Bmwolf21]

I never wanted to resign Briere..Just Drury..Maybe you only read a couple of those then...Pominville has proved more than Miller imo..I dont think either of those 2 are worth what Drury meant to this team but this isnt about Drury i just asked what you thought Jason was worth and what he might get...I dont feel like turning this into another pissin contest about drury or briere..There is enough of those

Wasn't trying to turn this into a Briere-Drury pissing contest (nor one about Miller's worth.) Just making an observation, and I already posted my thoughts on what Pominville is worth. My apologies if I misrepresented your POV on Briere, but the point stands - you seem reluctant to see the Sabres pay any of the potential free agents (outside Drury) anywhere near market value.

[tom webster]

Richards signed a 5 year, $39M contract after the team was eliminated from the 2006 playoffs, so it was under the current CBA and he was re-signed two months before becoming a UFA (here I thought we unrestricted free agents wouldn't even talk contact at that point - or at least that's what Darcy and Larry have told us.)

 

The problem is that Pominville has more leverage than the Sabres - he can play out his contract and watch his free agency value skyrocket with just an average season next year - and his agent is definitely going to remind him of that. Obviously there is risk to playing it out, since he could blow out a knee and lose value, but as stenbaro and I have already debated - that's much more likely to happen to an older player.

After reading most of your posts, I get the impression that you aren't comfortable paying anyone not named Drury or Briere more than $4-5M. You've said essentially the same thing - he's got to prove he's worth it, something I don't like about his game - about both the Sabres' upcoming big free agents, Pominville and Miller.

 

 

Eveybody has that option but other teams get their players to sign before playing it out, and to be fair, Buffalo has done the same with Roy and Hecht. I think a couple of things play into the Pominville deal;

1) He was grossly under-paid in his last deal and will want to make up for that

2) I think both he and Ryan can be convinced to take less if they believe they are being treated fairly and more importantly, if they believe management is comitted to building a winner. Why would either player sign up for 5 to 10 years of mediocrity?

[stenbaro]

Wasn't trying to turn this into a Briere-Drury pissing contest (nor one about Miller's worth.) Just making an observation, and I already posted my thoughts on what Pominville is worth. My apologies if I misrepresented your POV on Briere, but the point stands - you seem reluctant to see the Sabres pay any of the potential free agents (outside Drury) anywhere near market value.

Ok...I want them to pay players that deserve the big money not ones that might earn it..Vanek as a giant example...Miller could be one..I think Pominville definately deserves a pay raise I jsut think he slipped under my radar and I missed what great things he did..He put up some nice numbers plays the penalty kill and powerplay it just seems that he is missing something and I cant finger it out...LOL..He is gonna get a huge pay day and he might get as much as Vanek...Are those the 2 players you are gonna want to pay big money to lead this team?? I am not sure..On the other hand he is so freaking young still he could get alot better..Its screwy..I guess You gotta pay him...

 

PS..Dont forget I was all for keeping Campbell too..How could you forget that??Here in case u miss him...

 

[Bmwolf21]

Ok...I want them to pay players that deserve the big money not ones that might earn it..Vanek as a giant example...Miller could be one..I think Pominville definately deserves a pay raise I jsut think he slipped under my radar and I missed what great things he did..He put up some nice numbers plays the penalty kill and powerplay it just seems that he is missing something and I cant finger it out...LOL..He is gonna get a huge pay day and he might get as much as Vanek...Are those the 2 players you are gonna want to pay big money to lead this team?? I am not sure..On the other hand he is so freaking young still he could get alot better..Its screwy..I guess You gotta pay him...

 

PS..Dont forget I was all for keeping Campbell too..How could you forget that??Here in case u miss him...

 

I think we agree on Vanek and Drury, slightly disagree on Pominville (I don't think we're that far off) and disagree pretty solidly on Campbell and Miller.

 

I look at Pominville as developing into a combo of the best parts of Drury and Briere - kind of like Roy. I think you take Drury's ability to play both ways, his quiet leadership and tireless effort and add it to Briere's scoring and you've got a young Pominville. I think he is going to develop into a special player and I'd hate to see that happen somewhere else, especially if it comes down to a Ryan Smyth-type contract situation.

[stenbaro]

I think we agree on Vanek and Drury, slightly disagree on Pominville (I don't think we're that far off) and disagree pretty solidly on Campbell and Miller.

 

I look at Pominville as developing into a combo of the best parts of Drury and Briere - kind of like Roy. I think you take Drury's ability to play both ways, his quiet leadership and tireless effort and add it to Briere's scoring and you've got a young Pominville. I think he is going to develop into a special player and I'd hate to see that happen somewhere else, especially if it comes down to a Ryan Smyth-type contract situation.

Pretty fair assesment of Jason...

 

Anyone else watching this standoff???

[LabattBlue]

I think Pominville will only get better especially is they can get him a play making center. Even with Hecht as his center for the most of the year, Pominville was dynamite.

 

IMO...Depending on the length of offer, the contract could average anywhere from 4.5 to 5.5 per year.

 

PS I don't want to hijack the thread, but am I the only one who wonders why Brad Richards is getting huge money? I'm not sure if it was a reaction to TB winning the Cup, but every time I watch him, he seems very average.