Penguins -- dynasty possible under the cap?

[nfreeman]

I thought they looked awesome last night, to the point where the Oilers comparisons might not be as whacked-out as originally thought. But of course, as we know so well, good teams lose free agents in the capped world of the new NHL. After this season, the Pens will have the following UFAs:

 

Hossa

Malone -- 27 goals, 3rd among forwards in ice time

Roberts

Laraque -- protection for the skill guys and, with Ruutu, part of a pretty effective 4th line and

Ruutu -- see above

Hall

Beech

Taafe

Dupuis -- playing on Malkin's line in the playoffs (I think)

Eaton -- third among defensemen in ice time

Orpik -- most physical defenseman

 

Also, Fleury is an RFA after this year.

 

Crosby is at an $8.7 million cap hit starting next year. Malkin is cheap for one more year and then an RFA -- one presumes that he'll extend with Pittsburgh at an $8-$9 million per year deal. Will they try to keep Hossa? He's 29, 6'-1", 210 lbs, and a career 80-90 pt per year guy. He kills penalties and he's 3rd on the team in ice time in the playoffs. If Crosby and Malkin are Gretzky and Messier, Hossa is Jari Kurri or at least Glenn Anderson. To keep him they'll probably have to pony up something like $7 million x 6 years. That would be $25 million between the 3 forwards.

 

They've also got their 2 top defensemen, Gonchar and Whitney, locked up for the next few years (Gonchar at $5 million and Whitney at $3 million). That's $33 million for 5 players. Figure another $3 million for Fleury, and that's $36 million for 6 players. If the cap is $56 million next year, and the Pens' internal budget is $52 million (just a number I'm pulling out of the air, because Pittsburgh isn't NYC or Philly or Toronto), that leaves them $16 million to spend on the next 16 players.

 

That leaves the question at this: should they build this team around the big 3 forwards, their top 2 defensemen, plus Fleury? This means they realistically can't spend more than $1.75 million - $2 million on anyone else -- and they will definitely want to keep Staal.

 

I think I would do it (ie make Hossa a big offer), but that's just me.

 

thoughts?

[shrader]

Possible? Yes, but very unlikely. Personally, I don't think any team can keep the pieces together long term if they have two guys making that $8-9 million figure. Even if you can put together a solid lineup with the remaining money, it'll take a lot of luck to keep that lineup healthy. Depth will be next to nothing.

[apuszczalowski]

I don't know if they have an internal budget

 

And i had also heard that with the way the cap keeps going up, the Pens could easily be able to afford to keep their top players together

[TM8-PL16]

if you think Fleury will sign for 3 million a year, you're nuts! especially not after this playoff run. I understand that he is a RFA, but some team will throw him a Vanek type offer and they won't be able to match it or they will match it and they will let someone else go sooner than they wanted.

 

They ONLY way they sign Hossa to anything is if they DON'T win the cup and he thinks he can sign a one year deal for less money to win a cup and then it's on to big money somewhere else

[apuszczalowski]

if you think Fleury will sign for 3 million a year, you're nuts! especially not after this playoff run. I understand that he is a RFA, but some team will throw him a Vanek type offer and they won't be able to match it or they will match it and they will let someone else go sooner than they wanted.

 

They ONLY way they sign Hossa to anything is if they DON'T win the cup and he thinks he can sign a one year deal for less money to win a cup and then it's on to big money somewhere else

Thats only if Pittsburghs management is dumb enough to let him test the open market and not lock him up before hand, and $3 mil might be enough to do it for a couple of years, just because he had one good playoff run, it doesn't mean that he will get some huge money

[stenbaro]

I thought they looked awesome last night, to the point where the Oilers comparisons might not be as whacked-out as originally thought. But of course, as we know so well, good teams lose free agents in the capped world of the new NHL. After this season, the Pens will have the following UFAs:

 

Hossa

Malone -- 27 goals, 3rd among forwards in ice time

Roberts

Laraque -- protection for the skill guys and, with Ruutu, part of a pretty effective 4th line and

Ruutu -- see above

Hall

Beech

Taafe

Dupuis -- playing on Malkin's line in the playoffs (I think)

Eaton -- third among defensemen in ice time

Orpik -- most physical defenseman

 

Also, Fleury is an RFA after this year.

 

Crosby is at an $8.7 million cap hit starting next year. Malkin is cheap for one more year and then an RFA -- one presumes that he'll extend with Pittsburgh at an $8-$9 million per year deal. Will they try to keep Hossa? He's 29, 6'-1", 210 lbs, and a career 80-90 pt per year guy. He kills penalties and he's 3rd on the team in ice time in the playoffs. If Crosby and Malkin are Gretzky and Messier, Hossa is Jari Kurri or at least Glenn Anderson. To keep him they'll probably have to pony up something like $7 million x 6 years. That would be $25 million between the 3 forwards.

 

They've also got their 2 top defensemen, Gonchar and Whitney, locked up for the next few years (Gonchar at $5 million and Whitney at $3 million). That's $33 million for 5 players. Figure another $3 million for Fleury, and that's $36 million for 6 players. If the cap is $56 million next year, and the Pens' internal budget is $52 million (just a number I'm pulling out of the air, because Pittsburgh isn't NYC or Philly or Toronto), that leaves them $16 million to spend on the next 16 players.

 

That leaves the question at this: should they build this team around the big 3 forwards, their top 2 defensemen, plus Fleury? This means they realistically can't spend more than $1.75 million - $2 million on anyone else -- and they will definitely want to keep Staal.

 

I think I would do it (ie make Hossa a big offer), but that's just me.

 

thoughts?

The cap will continue to rise and with their new arena they should have no problem keeping whomever they want....

[shrader]

Thats only if Pittsburghs management is dumb enough to let him test the open market and not lock him up before hand, and $3 mil might be enough to do it for a couple of years, just because he had one good playoff run, it doesn't mean that he will get some huge money

 

But since he's very close to being able to explore the RFA offers, it would take a significant offer to persuade him not to do that.

[Knightrider]

Thats only if Pittsburghs management is dumb enough to let him test the open market and not lock him up before hand, and $3 mil might be enough to do it for a couple of years, just because he had one good playoff run, it doesn't mean that he will get some huge money

 

So you think Fleury will be dumb enough accept $3M/yr when he can get $5+M/yr in two months?

 

I hope no one tells him, or the Pittsburgh management will look as stupid as Buffalo's... <_<

[nfreeman]

Fleury has looked pretty good in the playoffs so far (and he's quite good at getting the puck in the corner ahead of the offense and passing it out), but he's far from proven as a bona fide #1 goalie. I'd be amazed if anyone gave him a Vanek-type RFA offer. Miller's current contract is a 3-year deal at a $2.67 million per year cap hit (although I don't remember how close he was to RFA when he signed it). Fleury shouldn't command much more than that. Frankly, if he wants more than that, I'd tell him to hit the road if I were Pittsburgh's GM. I'd rather keep Hossa.

 

As for spending to the cap, don't count on it. The Pens are $5 million under the cap right now. They are a small-market team just like the Sabres, albeit with a stronger economy than Buffalo's. The Sabres have a pretty new arena too. The Sabres won't spend $56 million and I doubt Pittsburgh will either.

[apuszczalowski]

So you think Fleury will be dumb enough accept $3M/yr when he can get $5+M/yr in two months?

 

I hope no one tells him, or the Pittsburgh management will look as stupid as Buffalo's... <_<

I don't know if there would really be that huge of a demand for him as a RFA at this point that a team would give him $5 mil a year, plus give up picks??

 

Does Edmonton need a new goalie that bad?

 

Fleury has had one good playoffs in his career, most of the seasons success was on Conklins shoulders, not Fleury's. I don't think he will see $5 mil a year just yet, but $3 mil for 3-4 years I can see, something similar to Emery who has had about the same amount of success over his career

[carpandean]

As for spending to the cap, don't count on it. The Pens are $5 million under the cap right now. They are a small-market team just like the Sabres, albeit with a stronger economy than Buffalo's. The Sabres have a pretty new arena too. The Sabres won't spend $56 million and I doubt Pittsburgh will either.

Yeah, you're not supposed to spend to the cap and very few teams come even close. You need cap space for short term injury (or bad performance) call-ups and most teams leave some for rental pieces if a cup run looks likely in February. The only three teams that had less than $3 million of cap space (cap + LTIR/bonuses cushion - total cap hits) prior to making trades for cup runs were the Rangers, Flyers and Maple Leafs. Each of those had $1.5 - $2.5 million after call-ups for short term injuries. Several other playoff teams were within $3 million, but only after deadline trades and call-ups. Most other teams had $4+ million in cap space and several had $7-12 million of space. I would say $4-5 million under is a safe bet, though they may go a little higher to keep a key piece if they assume the cap will continue to go up. Plus, any extension for Malkin, Stall or any other 2009-10 extension would not count against next year's cap.

 

Edit: San Jose and Nashville were the best values with $10 million and $16 million in cap space.

[shrader]

Fleury has had one good playoffs in his career, most of the seasons success was on Conklins shoulders, not Fleury's. I don't think he will see $5 mil a year just yet, but $3 mil for 3-4 years I can see, something similar to Emery who has had about the same amount of success over his career

 

The whole method to the RFA game is to attempt to poach a player from a team that would have trouble matching the offer. Given what Pittsburgh is about to face with their young talent, they might not be too crazy about matching an offer. But then again, someone has to be interested enough to make that offer. Fleury is an interesting case since he is still very young and goalies tend to be late bloomers. I don't think anyone will make a play for him, but that doesn't mean it can't or won't happen.

[wonderbread]

Me thinks Pittsburgh will be broken up soon enough!

 

Malone will require a hefty raise coupled with their other FA's it won't be long now.

[tom webster]

The whole method to the RFA game is to attempt to poach a player from a team that would have trouble matching the offer. Given what Pittsburgh is about to face with their young talent, they might not be too crazy about matching an offer. But then again, someone has to be interested enough to make that offer. Fleury is an interesting case since he is still very young and goalies tend to be late bloomers. I don't think anyone will make a play for him, but that doesn't mean it can't or won't happen.

 

The other question is, how many teams are actually in the market for a goalie and how many of those teams would be willing to make an offer?

 

Washington - will probably sign Huet

Ottawa - propbable cap issues and rumors of Luongo

Detroit - not their style

Nashville - depends on Ellis

Chicago- signing the Finn

 

As far as I can tell, rest of the teams either set at number 1 or have top prospect ready to play.

[tom webster]

Me thinks Pittsburgh will be broken up soon enough!

 

Malone will require a hefty raise coupled with their other FA's it won't be long now.

 

 

Me thinks Ray Shero and the Penguins will show us how to keep a team together.

[wonderbread]

Me thinks Ray Shero and the Penguins will show us how to keep a team together.

 

 

Don't be so sure. I guess we will see. Tell me what do you consider "keeping team together"?

[nfreeman]

Me thinks Ray Shero and the Penguins will show us how to keep a team together.

 

 

Don't be so sure. I guess we will see. Tell me what do you consider "keeping team together"?

 

This raises the question again of whether it makes sense to devote a huge percentage of your cap to a small group of core players. Everyone thought Ottawa was brilliant for locking up their big 3 at the start of the season. Now? Not quite so much.

 

Having said that, I'd also say that Pittsburgh's big 3 are better than Ottawa's big 3. Malkin and Crosby are both better than any of the Ottawa stars, and Hossa might be as good as Alfie.

 

As an aside, if Pittsburgh wins the cup this year, what will that do to the "the New NHL is dead/only teams like Anaheim can win in the playoffs" theme?

[wonderbread]

As an aside, if Pittsburgh wins the cup this year, what will that do to the "the New NHL is dead/only teams like Anaheim can win in the playoffs" theme?

 

 

I'd say that in order to win the cup you need tp have a nice mixture of stars, bangers, goaltending, and defense. This year Pittsburgh has gotten all that. They seem pretty solid altogether. Of course it only takes one bad string of games to make people say that "the New NHL is dead/only teams like Anaheim (insert random Western team here) can win in the playoffs"

[tom webster]

Don't be so sure. I guess we will see. Tell me what do you consider "keeping team together"?

 

Like you said none of us can be sure but my belief is that the "keeping a core of six or seven" over the four line six defenseman will turn out better. Doesn't hurt if your six or seven are Crosby,Malkin, Staal, Whitney, Gonchar and Fleury.

What Shero and his owners have done is show that they have the courage to roll the dice. Do you really think Darcy would have ever made that Hossa deal? Shero beleives that with his stars in tow that the fifth through twelth forwards are interchangeable. Guys like Malone and Sykora are nice, but if you create the right atmospere, players will want ot come. Look at Gary Roberts. Why didn't he list Buffalo as one of the temas he wanted to go to last year? They were challenging for the President's Trophy, he wanted to go to a team near Toronto that was in contention and he picks Pittsburgh and Ottawa? What, he flunk geography?

I'll be betting on Pittsburgh.