Next Year Cap Numbers

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I was looking at Dave's numbers in the other thread and got to looking at the NHL cap site.....and it looks like the Sabres are spending real $ next year no matter what.

 

Here are some salary swaps...

 

Vanek - 2 mil

Connolly +500k

Roy +500k

Miller +1m

Hecht +1.5 mil

Pominville +500k

All others +800k

 

That is +2.8 million from this season. Say you let Kalinin walk, that is a wash then. If Max is traded for a pick and Teppo isn't signed, that is a subtraction of 6 million, or a net of -4.5 mil if replaced by 2 solid Rochester kids. Then you have Gaustad, Bernier, Paille and MacArthur who were a total of 2.8 mil this season. That leaves you with 7.3 mil to sign those 4 guys. I think the 4 will total a bit more than that, but we will call it a wash assuming nobody nabs them in RFA.

 

The Sabres are back to $47 million with the exact same team as 2007, minus Max and Kalinin. It may even be a few more dollars to get a viable backup goalie, and in my opinion I think the RFAs may be closer to $9 million total.

 

Unless they get creative and dump Kotalik and Connolly with Max, there is nobody of name value coming this way.

 

Someone tell me if I am missing the boat here. Even though Quinn was talking about $47 million this year, it was closer to $44-45 million. That is where the team will be minus Kalinin, Afinogenov, Kotalik and Connolly. How are we not going to be having the same conversation at this point next year? At that time, they will need to let another set of players go to make up for the $7+ million in raises Miller and Pominville will receive. This looks like an endless cycle unless there is another work stoppage.

[carpandean]

Are you talking cap or salaries? Cap hits are the average of a contract, not the salary of that year. Vanek's hit this year was $7.143 million, but his salary was $10 million.

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Are you talking cap or salaries? Cap hits are the average of a contract, not the salary of that year. Vanek's hit this year was $7.143 million, but his salary was $10 million.

 

These might be bad then.......I'll put up the site where they were from in a second....

[carpandean]

I use this one: http://nhlnumbers.com/overview.php?team=BUF

 

Though, you have to be careful about what is being added up in each column. For example, the cap hit column is their actual cap hit but only over the days assigned to the team. So, to see what their actual cap hit would be for next year (assuming they aren't UFA/RFA's or Hecht, who has a new contract for next year), you have to look at the far left column.

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You are correct.....the only change in cap number is Hecht who is +1.3

 

Kalinin is 2.0 and Max 3.3

 

Teppo is 2.6 but really didn't count

 

The RFAs...Gaustad, Bernier, Paille and MacArthur were only 3.2 combined.

 

Let's back into it...If Max and Kalinin are replaced by Rochester guys making 750k, then that is savings of 3.8..-1.3 raise to Hecht..+2.6 for Teppo....-750K for Teppo replacement....-300K for backup goalie upgrade....that is a savings of 4.0 million.

 

Now since the RFAs were 3.2 and the Sabres are ahead of the game 4 million by letting Kalinin, Teppo, Max and Tbo go...assuming washes everywhere else, we still have $7.2 million to give to the RFAs, which should be bottom end. The Sabres are still at $47 million at best after letting guys walk.

 

These guys love Connolly too much to trade him, but they could let Kotalik go. At best, you replace him with a $4 million veteran and the Sabres are at $50 million.

 

Here is your $50 million lineup

 

Vanek Roy Veteran@$4million

Hecht Connolly Pominville

Paille Gaustad Bernier

macArthur Mair Kaleta

 

Spacek Paetch

Weber Sekera

Tallinder Lydman

 

Miller

20 Game Backup

 

Zags and Mancari/Funk and Peters in the pressbox

 

This is if you resign the RFAs for cheap. If you want to give Miller and Pominville 6 + 5 million each, you are talking another 7 million in '09-'10. That means your targets to walk then are Spacek and Connolly. Add a few more dollars to the guys you bring back, and you are talking $55 million for '09-'10 with your only hope being Gerbe, Kennedy, Butler and Enroth filling the departed spots. In reality Darcy will let at least one of them walk without a contract.

 

There is no way to get bigger and tougher on defense with this plan. You have to wait for guys like Weber and Funk to blossom and hope for the best.

[carpandean]

We already had a full thread on this a while back, but ...

 

Here's a rough idea of where they'd be without Kalinin, Ryan and Max, and signing Teppo, Paille, Bernier and Gaustad to questionable figures:

Vanek - 7.413

Roy - 4.000

Hecht - 3.525

Connolly - 2.900

Kotalik - 2.333

Gaustad - 2.500

Bernier - 2.000

Paille - 2.000

Pominville - 1.033

Stafford - 0.984

Mair - 0.758

Peters - 0.525

Kaleta - 0.492

 

Spacek - 3.333

Lydman - 2.875

Teppo - 2.600

Tallinder - 2.562

Paetsch - 0.850

Weber - 0.750

Sekera - 0.675

 

Miller - 2.667

Backup - 1.000

 

Total: $47.505

 

If they sign someone in place of Teppo or if they trade Lydman, then you can offset the new Dman's salary by $2.6-2.875 million. Also, if they can drop Kotalik or Connolly in picking up a new center, then that gets offset by $2.333-2.9 million. I would suspect that with the upgrades that we all want, the team will be pushing $50 million for a cap hit in 2008-09 and I would not be surprised to find them actually doing that.

 

Edit: how do you go from $47 with Kotalik at $2.333 to $50 with a vet at $4; shouldn't it be $48.666? Also, where's Stafford?

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What you did was keep Teppo as part of the equation, let MacArthur walk, sign the other RFAs to an ok contract, and bump up the backup. I was rounding higher numbers on the RFAs if Kotalik left and a $4 mil type was brought in. You set it up well like this.

 

I think it is telling that Stafford disappeared from my thoughts! He would take MacArthur's place I guess.

 

So at 47.5, there are no new additions and Max and Kalinin leave.

 

When pricing in Pominville and Miller the next year...the Sabres can't afford a trade this year. Nobody will want Connolly for the most part, and you might as well let Kotalik play out the year if just for his backhand and slapshot. Let them walk with Spacek and Peters in '09 in return for Pominville and Miller.

 

I was scouting the wire last year and the Sabres did nothing. I am assuming the same will happen this time.

 

Since the payroll will be up $5 million, expect tickets up the same. Tickets will be up an average of $7 or so if they match dollars.

 

 

Thanks for spelling it out for me....I'm just trying to see if they can start a change of culture, and there really isn't enough room to do so. I don't really know with the NHL anymore. I love Calgary, and game 1 the refs burried the whistles and Calgary punished San Jose. Soupy was Deer in the Headlights Soupy. Then in game 2, the refs called Calgary for 6 straight penalties in about 10-15 minutes. It was crazy.

[carpandean]

I didn't let MacArthur walk, I kept him in Rochester as the #1 call-up. The only reason that he is in the cap numbers at all this year was because of his call-ups. If you trade away or don't sign any of the forwards listed, then he is the guy that would likely move up.

 

If they don't bring back Teppo (or trade away Lydman), trade away Kotalik (or Connolly) and bring in two $4 million players (a center and a defenseman), then under my scheme, they will be at about $50.5 million (less if it's Lyman and/or Connolly.) Even if you tack on another $0.5 million for each of the three RFAs, that's about the same % of the cap that they were planning on spending this season (before Teppo went out.)

[SabresFan526]

I didn't let MacArthur walk, I kept him in Rochester as the #1 call-up. The only reason that he is in the cap numbers at all this year was because of his call-ups. If you trade away or don't sign any of the forwards listed, then he is the guy that would likely move up.

 

If they don't bring back Teppo (or trade away Lydman), trade away Kotalik (or Connolly) and bring in two $4 million players (a center and a defenseman), then under my scheme, they will be at about $50.5 million (less if it's Lyman and/or Connolly.) Even if you tack on another $0.5 million for each of the three RFAs, that's about the same % of the cap that they were planning on spending this season (before Teppo went out.)

MacArthur is a tough one. Next year, he becomes waiver eligible. Meaning, they have to decide if they are going to re-sign him, they will probably have to keep him on the Sabres roster, and if they assign him to Rochester, he will have to clear waivers and the Sabres will risk losing him to another team. I'm not sure I'm ready to have MacArthur on the team full time next year as I would prefer a veteran, not someone like MacArthur replacing a Max. And, if you keep him on the team, he most likely will be a healthy scratch on most nights when the lineup is healthy, but we always have Connolly to go down to injury, so I guess keeping MacArthur with the big team next year may not be so bad.

[carpandean]

MacArthur is a tough one. Next year, he becomes waiver eligible. Meaning, they have to decide if they are going to re-sign him, they will probably have to keep him on the Sabres roster, and if they assign him to Rochester, he will have to clear waivers and the Sabres will risk losing him to another team. I'm not sure I'm ready to have MacArthur on the team full time next year as I would prefer a veteran, not someone like MacArthur replacing a Max. And, if you keep him on the team, he most likely will be a healthy scratch on most nights when the lineup is healthy, but we always have Connolly to go down to injury, so I guess keeping MacArthur with the big team next year may not be so bad.

Good point. This makes me fear that Kaleta will start with whatever farm team we have (Rochester if Duffy can dislodge Donner) with MacArthur starting up with the Sabres.

[stenbaro]

We already had a full thread on this a while back, but ...

 

Here's a rough idea of where they'd be without Kalinin, Ryan and Max, and signing Teppo, Paille, Bernier and Gaustad to questionable figures:

Vanek - 7.413 overpaidRoy - 4.000 worth every pennyHecht - 3.525 overpaidConnolly - 2.900 overpaid

Kotalik - 2.333 overpaid

Gaustad - 2.500 overpaid

Bernier - 2.000 overpaid

Paille - 2.000 who knows

Pominville - 1.033 stealStafford - 0.984 right onMair - 0.758 right onPeters - 0.525 overpaid

Kaleta - 0.492 worth every pennySpacek - 3.333 okLydman - 2.875 overpaidTeppo - 2.600 not worth it

Tallinder - 2.562 maybePaetsch - 0.850 not worth itWeber - 0.750 okSekera - 0.675 ok

Miller - 2.667 okBackup - 1.000

 

Total: $47.505

If they sign someone in place of Teppo or if they trade Lydman, then you can offset the new Dman's salary by $2.6-2.875 million. Also, if they can drop Kotalik or Connolly in picking up a new center, then that gets offset by $2.333-2.9 million. I would suspect that with the upgrades that we all want, the team will be pushing $50 million for a cap hit in 2008-09 and I would not be surprised to find them actually doing that.

 

Edit: how do you go from $47 with Kotalik at $2.333 to $50 with a vet at $4; shouldn't it be $48.666? Also, where's Stafford?

The problem with this team is who they are paying all this money to..In my opinion someone needs to be fired and this needs to be fixed..They overpaid all their middle of the road players..Left no money for their stars and now we watch the playoffs..

[tom webster]

We already had a full thread on this a while back, but ...

 

Here's a rough idea of where they'd be without Kalinin, Ryan and Max, and signing Teppo, Paille, Bernier and Gaustad to questionable figures:

Vanek - 7.413

Roy - 4.000

Hecht - 3.525

Connolly - 2.900

Kotalik - 2.333

Gaustad - 2.500

Bernier - 2.000

Paille - 2.000

Pominville - 1.033

Stafford - 0.984

Mair - 0.758

Peters - 0.525

Kaleta - 0.492

 

Spacek - 3.333

Lydman - 2.875

Teppo - 2.600

Tallinder - 2.562

Paetsch - 0.850

Weber - 0.750

Sekera - 0.675

 

Miller - 2.667

Backup - 1.000

 

Total: $47.505

 

If they sign someone in place of Teppo or if they trade Lydman, then you can offset the new Dman's salary by $2.6-2.875 million. Also, if they can drop Kotalik or Connolly in picking up a new center, then that gets offset by $2.333-2.9 million. I would suspect that with the upgrades that we all want, the team will be pushing $50 million for a cap hit in 2008-09 and I would not be surprised to find them actually doing that.

 

Edit: how do you go from $47 with Kotalik at $2.333 to $50 with a vet at $4; shouldn't it be $48.666? Also, where's Stafford?

 

 

As I posted in another thread, there is no way Paille, Gaustad and Bernier get near $2 million. As I stated Steen and Nillson have set the high end of that market at $1.6 million. Most teams aren't looking to spend $2 million on their third line players. This is just another example of over valuing our own players.

[carpandean]

The problem with this team is who they are paying all this money to..In my opinion someone needs to be fired and this needs to be fixed..They overpaid all their middle of the road players..Left no money for their stars and now we watch the playoffs..

There are definitely some guys that haven't paid off, especially this year, but it's not all that bad:

Vanek may prove himself worth it, but right now he is overpaid. We shall see if that continues.

Agreed Roy is worth every penny, probably more.

Hecht is not overpaid. He is a great two-way forward who plays very well with Pominville and is a great PKer.

Connolly is overpaid because of how much he actually plays. He'd be about right if he plays 75+ games. Bad gamble so far.

Kotalik is overpaid a little because of the give-aways, but is a 20+ goal scorer on the third line and PP unit, and a roughly 50% shootout scorer.

Gaustad, Bernier and Paille haven't signed to those numbers and may very well sign for much less. Time will tell if they are overpaid next year or not, but this year, they were a combined $2.3 million (obviously much of Bernier's went to San Jose), which included bonuses in Bernier's contract.

Pominville will be worth $4 million easy next year, so his $1.033 is definitely a huge bargain.

Stafford, Mair and Kaleta are all fine or better deals.

Peters is probably overpaid, but is paid so little that he's not really hurting us much (not to say I wouldn't cut him in a heart-beat.)

Spacek, Sekera and Weber are good deals or better.

Lydman and Tallinder were paid appropriately before Tallinder's broken arm and the transition back to the Old NHL. Now, they have regressed, so are overpaid.

Teppo hasn't signed for that much and may sign for less or not at all.

 

So, really, it just goes back to Vanek, Connolly, Kotalik (sort of), Lydman and Tallinder (and Max, but it seems he may go). Vanek is a big unknown about his future worth, but the rest can be traded off for all I care. We shall see what happens with the RFAs and Teppo.

[carpandean]

As I posted in another thread, there is no way Paille, Gaustad and Bernier get near $2 million. As I stated Steen and Nillson have set the high end of that market at $1.6 million. Most teams aren't looking to spend $2 million on their third line players. This is just another example of over valuing our own players.

I agree, but since they are unknowns and that's what Dwight thinks they will make, I put those in for worst-case argument's sake.

[tom webster]

I agree, but since they are unknowns and that's what Dwight thinks they will make, I put those in for worst-case argument's sake.

 

 

Sorry if I am not keeping up today, I'm a little under the weather.

[carpandean]

Sorry if I am not keeping up today, I'm a little under the weather.

Watching the playoffs from the outside, I think we are all feeling a little sick right now. ;)

[SabreNod]

The problem with this team is who they are paying all this money to..In my opinion someone needs to be fired and this needs to be fixed..They overpaid all their middle of the road players..Left no money for their stars and now we watch the playoffs..

 

 

anyone who says that Hecht is overpaid doesn't understand the game very well and loses all credibility with me. Do you really think it's only about point production?

 

:rolleyes:

[stenbaro]

anyone who says that Hecht is overpaid doesn't understand the game very well and loses all credibility with me. Do you really think it's only about point production?

 

:rolleyes:

Thank god youre an ameba on my food chain or I might care...next

[tom webster]

anyone who says that Hecht is overpaid doesn't understand the game very well and loses all credibility with me. Do you really think it's only about point production?

 

:rolleyes:

 

Obviously its not only about point production, and while I wouldn't agree that he is greatly overpaid, I am sure that there are teams that wouldn't pay $3.8 million for their number 5 or 6 forward, which is where Hecht would fall assuming your buddy Connolly makes it through more than 40 games or they acquire someone to replace him at number two center.

 

BTW, questioning someone's credibility with regard to hockey knowledge is a pretty big step for someone who didn't understand the concept of plus and minus numbers and thinks that Buffalo is near the top in man loss games.

[Done]

As I posted in another thread, there is no way Paille, Gaustad and Bernier get near $2 million. As I stated Steen and Nillson have set the high end of that market at $1.6 million. Most teams aren't looking to spend $2 million on their third line players. This is just another example of over valuing our own players.

 

Right...and Iginla signed in the offseason for $7 million, setting the highest bar for....oh wait a minute, they're paying Vanek 10.

 

How do you get $1.6 million as the high bar for a third liner when the cap is $56 million? Does that mean a disproportionate amount of salary should be invested in your top line players?

[X. Benedict]

Right...and Iginla signed in the offseason for $7 million, setting the highest bar for....oh wait a minute, they're paying Vanek 10.

 

How do you get $1.6 million as the high bar for a third liner when the cap is $56 million? Does that mean a disproportionate amount of salary should be invested in your top line players?

Yes, for most teams it will.

[carpandean]

How do you get $1.6 million as the high bar for a third liner when the cap is $56 million? Does that mean a disproportionate amount of salary should be invested in your top line players?

Uhh ... yeah.

 

The top two lines are the guys make $3 - 7 million per year. Your fourth liners make under a million and the third are in between (over-generalizing a little bit). I would guess that the top two lines make up 70-80% of the total for forwards.

[tom webster]

Right...and Iginla signed in the offseason for $7 million, setting the highest bar for....oh wait a minute, they're paying Vanek 10.

 

How do you get $1.6 million as the high bar for a third liner when the cap is $56 million? Does that mean a disproportionate amount of salary should be invested in your top line players?

 

 

X already answered for me but like he said, and like the much despised LQ said in the presser, you win with great players not very good players. The four line approach, while an ideal socialist idea, is just not likely to work.

[Done]

X already answered for me but like he said, and like the much despised LQ said in the presser, you win with great players not very good players. The four line approach, while an ideal socialist idea, is just not likely to work.

 

Then why do we have only one player making more than $4 million? The Sabres seem to me to be doing the exact same thing everyone is claiming doesn't work. Give 10 guy $3 million.

 

I would be willing to wager that it is going to take more than $5 million a year to keep Gaustad, Bernier and Paille. These guys might only be worth that much to Buffalo, but with other teams playing a more physical style and with the cap on an upslope....I have a funny feeling someone is going to drop a sheet on the Sabres. There is little respect for Buffalo around the league, so why not take a shot. If Darcy signs these three for $5 million, I will heap praise. I think it's going to be 7.

[carpandean]

Then why do we have only one player making more than $4 million? The Sabres seem to me to be doing the exact same thing everyone is claiming doesn't work. Give 10 guy $3 million.

A lot of that has to do with timing of contracts, too. If Roy had signed this year instead of last year, he would have been signed for more than $4 million per year (note: his salary actually rises throughout his contract from $3 million this year to $5.5 million in his final year.) They took a chance last year and it payed off. If Pominville were a FA this summer, he would be probably sign for over $4 million (fortunately, we get another year on the cheap), as might Miller. A lot of the guys who are in the $2.5 - 3.5 million range are products of old contracts that made more sense at the time than they do now (Max, Connolly, Lydman and Tallinder wouldn't be given their same contracts if they were negotiating now.) Getting rid of those guys is part of what they need to do to make room for a couple more of those $4+ million players.

 

You are right that the cap has gone up a lot, so salaries will have gone up across the board. However, those types of increases tend not to be proportional. In other words, the salaries at the top tend to grow faster than at the bottom.