What is our goal

[Bmwolf21]

Trying to sign other people's RFA's is like a bad game of pinochle.

2 off seasons into the CBA you have had only 3 signed offer sheets: Kessler, Penner, Vanek.

Kessler and Vanek were matched by the clubs holding their rights.

I don't know about the pinochle reference (never played the game) but it's interesting to note that of the three RFA offer sheets you listed, two were offered by the same GM (Lowe to Penner and Vanek) and the other GM is out of the league (in terms of being a GM - Bobby Clarke.)

[X. Benedict]

I don't know about the pinochle reference (never played the game) but it's interesting to note that of the three RFA offer sheets you listed, two were offered by the same GM (Lowe to Penner and Vanek) and the other GM is out of the league (in terms of being a GM - Bobby Clarke.)

 

Pinochle - not sure why I thought of it, it opens with bidding/auction/contract process that requires partnerships.

 

Clarke went down in a ball of flames crying nobody will pay to see this type of hockey. (new CBA)

[Taro T]

We were supposed to get that veteran center and big D-man last year, but Vanek and Roy ate up all the money.

 

The same will happen this year for Gaustad, Paille and Bernier.

 

Here is the UFA chart:

Amount Compensation Due

$773,442 or less None

$773,442 - $1,171,882 3rd round pick

$1,171,882 - $2,343,764 2nd round pick

$2,343,764 - $3,515,645 1st and 3rd round pick

$3,515,645 - $4,687,527 1st, 2nd, and 3rd round pick

$4,687,527 - $5,859,412 Two 1st's, one 2nd, one 3rd round pick

$5,859,412 or more Four 1st round picks

Now...if the cap is $56 million, and the average team has 22 with the big club, and maybe another 6 to 8 others signed for an average of 700K not in Buffalo, then you are looking at the travel roster of 22 guys eating up $50 million if a team spends to the cap, or say $42 in the Sabres case. That means the AVERAGE player is making just under $2 million in Buffalo, and $2.3 on a team that pays up.

 

Are Gaustad, Paille and Bernier at least considered average? On a playing basis, your average forward is somewhere between the 2nd and 3rd line. They look average or better to me. When you throw in the type of game Gaustad and Bernier can play, I wouldn't be surprised if a team goes $3 million+ for them. Maybe even Paille. Heck, at $2.3 million, you give up a lousy 2nd round pick. With the Sabres track record of not paying up, they are a target...don't kid yourselves.

 

I have no problem paying Gaustad $17 million for 5 years if I need an all-around playoff type of center.

 

Bernier.....maybe 4 for $9 to get away with a 2nd rounder. Same for Paille.

 

I think you need to factor in an extra $5 million for the 3 of them if they stay. That is pretty much the price of letting Kalinin walk, and trading Max for a pick and filling the roster spots with rookie types.

 

I would laugh if Lowe comes knocking for these guys. For a 1st, 2nd and 3rd...you can walk away with Gaustad and Paille. Who needs to wait 5 years on a draft pick when you can plug 2 young guys in who should be top 8 forwards for the next decade?

Where/when did the Sabres ever say they were going to get a veteran center (other than Drury) or a big D-man last year?

 

Why do you think the Sabres will only spend $42MM next year when they spent over that each of the last 2 years?

 

I don't see Gaustad nor Bernier nor Paille getting an offer for $3MM+/yr. I don't have a problem with any of them getting a multiyear deal for slightly over $2MM/yr as the Sabres will almost definitely match the offer, but I would be surprised if any get an offer sheet.

 

The fact that the median player salary will be slightly over $2MM next year means that for every $4MM player you have on the roster you have to have 2 $1MM players on the roster to balance that out. The top players are going to make more than their fair share, so the median player salary will almost definitely not be over $2MM.

 

None of the 3 players you mention is a goal scorer (to date). Goal scorers are the players that get the big bucks. Character players with few exceptions (McKee being one) don't end up with the monster payday.

 

And realistically, while I don't want to see any of the 3 walk, if the Sabres get an extra 1st, 2nd, and 3rd in next year's draft for Gaustad or Paille; I'll take it. BTW, the Sabres couldn't lose both to the Eulers as they only have one of their own of each of those 3 picks in next year's draft.

[tom webster]

Where/when did the Sabres ever say they were going to get a veteran center (other than Drury) or a big D-man last year?

 

Why do you think the Sabres will only spend $42MM next year when they spent over that each of the last 2 years?

 

I don't see Gaustad nor Bernier nor Paille getting an offer for $3MM+/yr. I don't have a problem with any of them getting a multiyear deal for slightly over $2MM/yr as the Sabres will almost definitely match the offer, but I would be surprised if any get an offer sheet.

 

The fact that the median player salary will be slightly over $2MM next year means that for every $4MM player you have on the roster you have to have 2 $1MM players on the roster to balance that out. The top players are going to make more than their fair share, so the median player salary will almost definitely not be over $2MM.

 

None of the 3 players you mention is a goal scorer (to date). Goal scorers are the players that get the big bucks. Character players with few exceptions (McKee being one) don't end up with the monster payday.

 

And realistically, while I don't want to see any of the 3 walk, if the Sabres get an extra 1st, 2nd, and 3rd in next year's draft for Gaustad or Paille; I'll take it. BTW, the Sabres couldn't lose both to the Eulers as they only have one of their own of each of those 3 picks in next year's draft.

 

Taro, I have a question for you, the CBA guru. Club elected arbitration, what more can you tell me about it. I believe you can only use it once in a player's career and only twice in one off season, but are there any other conditions? It would seem that if they can't get something worked out with Bernier and MacArthur, club elected arbitration would give them another ear to evaluate.

[Taro T]

Taro, I have a question for you, the CBA guru. Club elected arbitration, what more can you tell me about it. I believe you can only use it once in a player's career and only twice in one off season, but are there any other conditions? It would seem that if they can't get something worked out with Bernier and MacArthur, club elected arbitration would give them another ear to evaluate.

You are correct that a player can only be taken to arbitration by a team once in his career (regardless of how many other teams he might play for prior to reaching UFA status (all 2 or so remaining years of RFA status) and regardless of whether he actually has an arbitration hearing) and that a team can only file for arbitration on a max of 2 players per season.

 

A team can only file for arbitration in 2 cases.

 

1. If a player is a Group 2 free agent (standard RFA) and he made $1.5MM or more the previous year.

 

2. If the player was offered and turned down a QO and the player didn't elect arbitration.

 

I don't think the Sabres would gain much if anything by filing for arbitration on either player. IIRC the Rangers filed for arbitration on Lundqvist but that was to keep from having him receive a Kevin Lowe type offer that they'd have to match. I don't see either player you mentioned getting a monster offer so club elected arbitration doesn't serve a defensive purpose.

 

And in the off chance that either player rejects his QO AND doesn't file for arbitration, he has to sign a contract with the Sabres or an offer sheet from someone else by 5:00PM on December 1 or he can't play the entire '08-'09 season. The team would have all the leverage in that situation and filing for arbitration would reduce that leverage.

 

Team elected arbitration is pretty much set up to allow a team to try to reduce a player's salary if they think he's overcompensated but still worth keeping around. (A pretty rare case IMHO.) Players making $1.5MM or more can have their salary reduced by 15%, and players making less than $1MM can be kept from getting the automatic raise associated with a QO. Except in a Lundqvist defensive situation, a team would almost never have a reason to file for arbitration on a player making over $1MM but less than $1.5MM as the minimum the player can be offered is equivalent to the QO (100% of the previous year's salary).

 

And that leverage the team gains when a player doesn't file for arbitration is why so many players file for arbitration regardless of whether or not they believe they can sign before their hearing. One thing that may keep a player from filing for arbitration is an expectation of receiving offer sheets from other clubs as a player scheduled for arbitration can't receive an offer sheet (regardless of whether he or his team filed for arbitration).

[tom webster]

You are correct that a player can only be taken to arbitration by a team once in his career (regardless of how many other teams he might play for prior to reaching UFA status (all 2 or so remaining years of RFA status) and regardless of whether he actually has an arbitration hearing) and that a team can only file for arbitration on a max of 2 players per season.

 

A team can only file for arbitration in 2 cases.

 

1. If a player is a Group 2 free agent (standard RFA) and he made $1.5MM or more the previous year.

 

2. If the player was offered and turned down a QO and the player didn't elect arbitration.

 

I don't think the Sabres would gain much if anything by filing for arbitration on either player. IIRC the Rangers filed for arbitration on Lundqvist but that was to keep from having him receive a Kevin Lowe type offer that they'd have to match. I don't see either player you mentioned getting a monster offer so club elected arbitration doesn't serve a defensive purpose.

 

And in the off chance that either player rejects his QO AND doesn't file for arbitration, he has to sign a contract with the Sabres or an offer sheet from someone else by 5:00PM on December 1 or he can't play the entire '08-'09 season. The team would have all the leverage in that situation and filing for arbitration would reduce that leverage.

 

Team elected arbitration is pretty much set up to allow a team to try to reduce a player's salary if they think he's overcompensated but still worth keeping around. (A pretty rare case IMHO.) Players making $1.5MM or more can have their salary reduced by 15%, and players making less than $1MM can be kept from getting the automatic raise associated with a QO. Except in a Lundqvist defensive situation, a team would almost never have a reason to file for arbitration on a player making over $1MM but less than $1.5MM as the minimum the player can be offered is equivalent to the QO (100% of the previous year's salary).

 

And that leverage the team gains when a player doesn't file for arbitration is why so many players file for arbitration regardless of whether or not they believe they can sign before their hearing. One thing that may keep a player from filing for arbitration is an expectation of receiving offer sheets from other clubs as a player scheduled for arbitration can't receive an offer sheet (regardless of whether he or his team filed for arbitration).

 

Thanks,

I don't really think they will have trouble with these four, but I was just looking for clarification.