Blown Leads

[BuffalOhio]

From Mike Harrington:

 

For the record, here are the six games the Sabres have blown at home this year after leading by at least two goals:

 

? Nov. 28 versus St. Louis (lost, 4-3) ? led, 2-0, in the second period.

 

? Jan. 12, New Jersey (lost, 3-2, in shootout) ? led, 2-0, in second period.

 

? Feb. 8, Boston (lost, 3-2, in shootout) ? led, 2-0, after second period but were outshot, 17-1, in the third.

 

? Feb. 25, Philadelphia (lost, 4-3, in shootout) ? led, 3-0, in the first period.

 

? Tuesday, Ottawa (lost, 6-3) ? led, 3-1, with less than eight minutes left.

 

? Friday, Montreal (lost, 4-3, in overtime) ? led, 3-1, with less than three minutes left.

 

The Sabres have not lost any games on the road this year in which they?ve led by at least two.

[wonderbread]

Theres the 8 points that would put us in 7th. Kind of brings us full circle. That coupled with the 11 ot shootout losses and we are talking an extra 19 points. Granted you are not going to win every game or every shootout this team is not far from where it needs to get a couple of offseason acqusitions and they can resume with a successful run. Imagine what a vetern leader could have done for this team.

[Bmwolf21]

From Mike Harrington:

 

For the record, here are the six games the Sabres have blown at home this year after leading by at least two goals:

 

• Nov. 28 versus St. Louis (lost, 4-3) — led, 2-0, in the second period.

 

• Jan. 12, New Jersey (lost, 3-2, in shootout) — led, 2-0, in second period.

 

• Feb. 8, Boston (lost, 3-2, in shootout) — led, 2-0, after second period but were outshot, 17-1, in the third.

 

• Feb. 25, Philadelphia (lost, 4-3, in shootout) — led, 3-0, in the first period.

 

• Tuesday, Ottawa (lost, 6-3) — led, 3-1, with less than eight minutes left.

 

• Friday, Montreal (lost, 4-3, in overtime) — led, 3-1, with less than three minutes left.

 

The Sabres have not lost any games on the road this year in which they’ve led by at least two.

I debated posting a new topic on this but instead added it to the other thread when the discussion turned to why we're not in the playoffs right now. Here's what I wrote there:

In those six games we had 12 points well within reach - and we ended up with only four.

 

We close out those games with wins and add those 8 points to our total - we're in 5th place right now, 1 point out of 4th and just 6 points back of Montreal.

[tom webster]

Theres the 8 points that would put us in 7th. Kind of brings us full circle. That coupled with the 11 ot shootout losses and we are talking an extra 19 points. Granted you are not going to win every game or every shootout this team is not far from where it needs to get a couple of offseason acqusitions and they can resume with a successful run. Imagine what a vetern leader could have done for this team.

 

You are double counting three shootout losses plus the fact that they have lost only 9 shootouts and 3 in overtime.

 

The problem that comes from breaking down the season like this, and I am not saying either of you are doing this, is that it gives you the impression that they aren't that far away and maybe they could improve on this. I remember Marv Levy saying after a 7 and 9 season in which the team lost 5 or 6 games by less than 3 points how big that difference was.

The fact is all these stats as well as the record in one goal games is all indicative of the same things. Not enough "take charge" players, at least not enough with the needed experience to be. The most disconcerting part of the Montreal game to me was the way Roy just panicked before Higgins goal.

Like "bread" said, there is a definite need for veteran leadership but also a need for management to evaluate their players to see of they have the guys that are going to want the puck at the most definitive time of the game. Any of us that played or play sports know that there are guys or women who want nothing to do with the ball/puck when the game is on the line

[carpandean]

The most disconcerting part of the Montreal game to me was the way Roy just panicked before Higgins goal.

Watch the goal again (I just did several times). Roy takes the puck from Higgins, which sends it to the boards. He goes to the wall and calmly waits for Koivu to come to him, opening up Paetsch behind the goal for a breakout to the right. Roy passes it off the boards to him, but Koivu just gets a stick on it. Paetsch does a good job to take out Koivu and recover the puck. Roy positions himself to take the puck up the left side, but Paetsch's bounce pass needed to go more toward the corner to send him off. Instead, it comes out more toward the net, which goes past Roy and right to Streit, who fed it right to an open Higgins. I didn't see any panic there, just a tip on Roy's pass and a missed pass by Paetsch.

 

I remember thinking the same thing at the time, but in watching it again, I've changed my mind. If Koivu doesn't get a stick on the first pass, Paetsch is taking the puck easily up the right side. If Paetsch's puck doesn't come out between Roy and the net, he's taking the puck easily up the right side. Either would have been a nice breakout pass.

[Hawk]

One thing that bugs the crap out of me is that "they ran out of gas" excuse in back to back games, coupled with the "they didnt have their legs under them" because they havent played in a couple days. Everytime time they have a loss they fall back on these excuses. These guys are supposedly the best conditioned athletes in sports. That's my rant, no more to say. :angry: :angry:

[tom webster]

Watch the goal again (I just did several times). Roy takes the puck from Higgins, which sends it to the boards. He goes to the wall and calmly waits for Koivu to come to him, opening up Paetsch behind the goal for a breakout to the right. Roy passes it off the boards to him, but Koivu just gets a stick on it. Paetsch does a good job to take out Koivu and recover the puck. Roy positions himself to take the puck up the left side, but Paetsch's bounce pass needed to go more toward the corner to send him off. Instead, it comes out more toward the net, which goes past Roy and right to Streit, who fed it right to an open Higgins. I didn't see any panic there, just a tip on Roy's pass and a missed pass by Paetsch.

 

I remember thinking the same thing at the time, but in watching it again, I've changed my mind. If Koivu doesn't get a stick on the first pass, Paetsch is taking the puck easily up the right side. If Paetsch's puck doesn't come out between Roy and the net, he's taking the puck easily up the right side. Either would have been a nice breakout pass.

 

I would dispute the calmly. In my humble opinion, he had several options rather than a weak pass back to Paetsch but seemed like he couldn't wait to get rid of the puck. And why would he wait to the left of the goal when the apparent object of the pass to Paestch was to send the puck up the right side? Was he planning a high risk give and goal directly in front of the net and into the teeth of Montreal's defense?

[Bmwolf21]

Whether it was calmly or panicked, the play is typical of a team that often gets a little too overconfident and cute with the puck in their own end, a team that tries to make too fine a play when sometimes it's a better option to just chip off the glass and out.

 

Go back and watch how many times (at even strength) guys have tried to force a pass out of the zone with passing lanes clogged and wingers covered, when they could take the safe play and just chip it out. It's not just defensemen guilty of doing it and it's not an every time thing, but they do it far more than I'd bet Lindy and Ryan would like and far more than the fans would like....

[wonderbread]

Whether it was calmly or panicked, the play is typical of a team that often gets a little too overconfident and cute with the puck in their own end, a team that tries to make too fine a play when sometimes it's a better option to just chip off the glass and out.

 

Go back and watch how many times (at even strength) guys have tried to force a pass out of the zone with passing lanes clogged and wingers covered, when they could take the safe play and just chip it out. It's not just defensemen guilty of doing it and it's not an every time thing, but they do it far more than I'd bet Lindy and Ryan would like and far more than the fans would like....

 

 

I do have to work tommorow!

[carpandean]

I would dispute the calmly. In my humble opinion, he had several options rather than a weak pass back to Paetsch but seemed like he couldn't wait to get rid of the puck. And why would he wait to the left of the goal when the apparent object of the pass to Paestch was to send the puck up the right side? Was he planning a high risk give and goal directly in front of the net and into the teeth of Montreal's defense?

I say calmly, because he holds the puck for a few seconds, while Koivu comes toward him, freeing up Paetsch. He's looking over at Paetsch the whole time and didn't look to be in a hurry at all (I will give you that he had another option turning the other way, but if the pass had gone through cleanly, then they way he went would have been a perfectly fine play.) When the pass is tipped by Koivu, he moves in to help recover it, sees Paetsch do a nice job taking it back and then backs to an opening on that side to give Paetsch an outlet option. The right side was covered by Paille, who was covered by Higgins. Seemed to be the correct move given where he was and where Paetsch was with the puck; the right side had closed up and the left side had opened. A good pass from Paetsch more toward the corner would have sent Roy away in relative freedom. The pass was behind where it should have been so Roy wasn't able to handle it cleanly. Unfortunately, that put it right on Streit's stick.

 

Like I said, I changed my mind after going back and watching again on NHL.com a couple of times. If, after watching it again, you still don't agree, that's fine. We'll just accept it as a difference of opinion on a subjective analysis.

[tom webster]

I say calmly, because he holds the puck for a few seconds, while Koivu comes toward him, freeing up Paetsch. He's looking over at Paetsch the whole time and didn't look to be in a hurry at all (I will give you that he had another option turning the other way, but if the pass had gone through cleanly, then they way he went would have been a perfectly fine play.) When the pass is tipped by Koivu, he moves in to help recover it, sees Paetsch do a nice job taking it back and then backs to an opening on that side to give Paetsch an outlet option. The right side was covered by Paille, who was covered by Higgins. Seemed to be the correct move given where he was and where Paetsch was with the puck; the right side had closed up and the left side had opened. A good pass from Paetsch more toward the corner would have sent Roy away in relative freedom. The pass was behind where it should have been so Roy wasn't able to handle it cleanly. Unfortunately, that put it right on Streit's stick.

 

Like I said, I changed my mind after going back and watching again on NHL.com a couple of times. If, after watching it again, you still don't agree, that's fine. We'll just accept it as a difference of opinion on a subjective analysis.

 

 

Given that 80% of my dvr is now taken by a 4 and 7 year old, I must delete games after watching them.

One question though, did you change your mind after watching in slow motion? I find that that distorts the facts.

If not, I'll concede to the difference of opinion.

[BuffalOhio]

I say calmly, because he holds the puck for a few seconds, while Koivu comes toward him, freeing up Paetsch. He's looking over at Paetsch the whole time and didn't look to be in a hurry at all (I will give you that he had another option turning the other way, but if the pass had gone through cleanly, then they way he went would have been a perfectly fine play.) When the pass is tipped by Koivu, he moves in to help recover it, sees Paetsch do a nice job taking it back and then backs to an opening on that side to give Paetsch an outlet option. The right side was covered by Paille, who was covered by Higgins. Seemed to be the correct move given where he was and where Paetsch was with the puck; the right side had closed up and the left side had opened. A good pass from Paetsch more toward the corner would have sent Roy away in relative freedom. The pass was behind where it should have been so Roy wasn't able to handle it cleanly. Unfortunately, that put it right on Streit's stick.

 

Like I said, I changed my mind after going back and watching again on NHL.com a couple of times. If, after watching it again, you still don't agree, that's fine. We'll just accept it as a difference of opinion on a subjective analysis.

 

I think Paetsch's pass to Roy was deflected (again) by Koivu, and directly to Streit. When that happened, Paille went to the other pointman, which left Higgins alone at the side of the net because both defensemen were on the other side of the net.

[Buffalo Wings]

I think this all just boils down to knowing how to play 60 minutes. This is not a complaint or gripe about the usual, but the '06 and '07 teams would have never let this happen. Those 12 points may not all have been won, but I'd bet that the vast majority would have if the same leaders were still here (not to mention, the prolonged winless streak in December & January would not have happened, either).

 

It became blatantly clear to me when they blew the lead against the Flyers in late February - this group of players needs to have the on-ice leaders that know how to finish and play the entire 60 minutes.

[LabattBlue]

From Mike Harrington:

 

For the record, here are the six games the Sabres have blown at home this year after leading by at least two goals:

 

? Nov. 28 versus St. Louis (lost, 4-3) ? led, 2-0, in the second period.

 

? Jan. 12, New Jersey (lost, 3-2, in shootout) ? led, 2-0, in second period.

 

? Feb. 8, Boston (lost, 3-2, in shootout) ? led, 2-0, after second period but were outshot, 17-1, in the third.

 

? Feb. 25, Philadelphia (lost, 4-3, in shootout) ? led, 3-0, in the first period.

 

? Tuesday, Ottawa (lost, 6-3) ? led, 3-1, with less than eight minutes left.

 

? Friday, Montreal (lost, 4-3, in overtime) ? led, 3-1, with less than three minutes left.

 

The Sabres have not lost any games on the road this year in which they?ve led by at least two.

 

I think there are at least 1 or 2 games where they also blew a two goal lead, but still ended up winning.

[carpandean]

Given that 80% of my dvr is now taken by a 4 and 7 year old, I must delete games after watching them.

One question though, did you change your mind after watching in slow motion? I find that that distorts the facts.

If not, I'll concede to the difference of opinion.

http://www.nhl.com/nhl/app?date=03%2F28%2F...mp;service=page

Click on the "Watch" link by their game. You can either watch all the replays or click on that particular goal.

It was full speed not slow motion.

[tom webster]

http://www.nhl.com/nhl/app?date=03%2F28%2F...mp;service=page

Click on the "Watch" link by their game. You can either watch all the replays or click on that particular goal.

It was full speed not slow motion.

 

I still think he panics when Koivu comes toward him. If he controls the puck and turns right(away from the net) and goes up along the boards he has an easy clear or a two man rush with Paille.

[carpandean]

I still think he panics when Koivu comes toward him. If he controls the puck and turns right(away from the net) and goes up along the boards he has an easy clear or a two man rush with Paille.

I agree that going the other way might have been a better idea, but he stops, waits and then when Koivu is close tries to put it by him off the boards to an open Paetsch. If he had immediately thrown it away, I would have said he panicked, but this looked calculated to me. Of course, we can't get in his head, so who knows, maybe it was just a deer in the headlights pause. However, Derek plays much better than that, so I will give him the benefit of the doubt.

[tom webster]

I agree that going the other way might have been a better idea, but he stops, waits and then when Koivu is close tries to put it by him off the boards to an open Paetsch. If he had immediately thrown it away, I would have said he panicked, but this looked calculated to me. Of course, we can't get in his head, so who knows, maybe it was just a deer in the headlights pause. However, Derek plays much better than that, so I will give him the benefit of the doubt.

 

 

I will concede that if it was panic, it was out of character for him.