tom webster Posted March 16, 2008 Report Posted March 16, 2008 Two tickets 100 Level preferred playoff tickets to what I consider the best post formulating next season's roster with Salary Cap numbers. A couple conditions; 1) No reference to what might have been 2) Next years cap number must be $47 million with allowances made for Miller and Pomminstein the next year. 3) Can use generic terms like #2 center, #2 defensemen I, and a couple of friends are sole judge and jury. From your friend, Spinner Spenser
carpandean Posted March 16, 2008 Report Posted March 16, 2008 Two questions: 1) What happens to current AHL players' salaries if they are on the full NHL roster? Right now, guys like Kaleta, Sekera, MacArthur and Weber are shown at very low numbers. Do they have to sign new contracts? 2) When you sign an extension, how is your cap hit affected? It appears that Hecht's cap hit for this season is still from his old contract ($2.2 Million) and I assume it will go up to his new contract number next season ($3.525 Million). So, even if they sign Miller and Pominville to extensions, wouldn't their cap numbers remain the same for 2008-09?
tom webster Posted March 16, 2008 Author Report Posted March 16, 2008 Two questions: 1) What happens to current AHL players' salaries if they are on the full NHL roster? Right now, guys like Kaleta, Sekera, MacArthur and Weber are shown at very low numbers. Do they have to sign new contracts? 2) When you sign an extension, how is your cap hit affected? It appears that Hecht's cap hit for this season is still from his old contract ($2.2 Million) and I assume it will go up to his new contract number next season ($3.525 Million). So, even if they sign Miller and Pominville to extensions, wouldn't their cap numbers remain the same for 2008-09? 1) Only MacArthur has to be resigned. 2) When choosing to add someone, you have to take into account what a long term deal will do in the following year. Miller and Pominville's cap number will remain the same next year.
carpandean Posted March 16, 2008 Report Posted March 16, 2008 1) Only MacArthur has to be resigned. Yeah, I knew he would as a RFA. I was looking at the weighted (by games called up) cap numbers for the others by accident, not their contract numbers. It makes more sense now.
deluca67 Posted March 16, 2008 Report Posted March 16, 2008 Two tickets 100 Level preferred playoff tickets to what I consider the best post formulating next season's roster with Salary Cap numbers.A couple conditions; 1) No reference to what might have been 2) Next years cap number must be $47 million with allowances made for Miller and Pomminstein the next year. 3) Can use generic terms like #2 center, #2 defensemen I, and a couple of friends are sole judge and jury. From your friend, Spinner Spenser I knew you were joking.
carpandean Posted March 16, 2008 Report Posted March 16, 2008 To get everyone started, if we can't work a trade to drop some weight, here's what we are committed to: Vanek 7.143 Roy 4 Max 3.333 Timmy 2.9 Ales 2.333 Hecht 3.545 Pominville 1.033 Mair 0.758 Peters 0.55 Stafford 0.984 Spacek 3.33 Lydman 2.875 Tallinder 2.562 Paetsch 0.850 Miller 2.667 For a total of of $38.863 million for 10 forwards, 4 defensemen and a starting goalie. We need 3 more forwards, 3 more defensemen and a backup goalie for $8.137 Million. We also have to look at signing: Goose - will probably push the $1 million mark Bernier - current hit is $1.183 million, but some of that is signing bonus. Current salary is only $850k. He, too, will likely push the $1 million mark. Paille - high six figures; $850k? Pratt - a good defensive defenseman for little money; $800k? We also have some AHLers that could get brought up full time next year: MacArthur - will need a new contract and may get another season in the AHL if we can't free up room. Might somebody put in an offer sheet? Kaleta - $492k and worth every penny Sekera - $675k; making a case for himself now, showing he is probably ready Weber - $750k; also making a case, but could stay down one more season if needed. The easiest way is to sign Goose, Bernier, Paille and Pratt, then bring up Sekera and Weber. For the numbers shown, that puts us at $44.93 Million with a full roster (edit: oops, except the backup goalie) and Kaleta/MacArthur sitting down in Roch ... er, Maine. I think that this is a worst case scenario. If we keep Weber down and/or don't resign Pratt, that leaves about $3-4 Million to sign one or two new defensemen and a back-up goalie. They'd be better off putting that into one top four defensemen (and a goalie) and keep Weber down for another season (or release Pratt) than trying to split that over two new defensemen. Basically, if there are no takers for our trash, unless we find someone worth sacrificing one of our RFA's for up front, we will have to focus on adding to our blue line and wait until the following season (when Max, Timmy and Al are all UFA's) to work on the front line. If we can unload one or more of those three, then we will have more money and spots to fill up front. Either way, though, we're probably going to have to let some RFA forwards go and/or keep some in the farm team until injuries start. A lot is going to come down to what other teams are willing to take off of our hands. Edit: oops #2 - I used the wrong column for Hecht's cap hit (i.e., his 2007-08 number, not his 2008-09 number). Corrected it, which tacked on another $1.3 Million.
tom webster Posted March 16, 2008 Author Report Posted March 16, 2008 I knew you were joking. OK , I have to pay them to call them frinds, but no joke, I paid for the tickets Friday.
inkman Posted March 16, 2008 Report Posted March 16, 2008 Here goes nothin': Vanek (7.143) - Roy (4.0) - Stafford (.984) = 12.127 Hecht (3.525)*- Gaustad (.95)**- Pominville (1.033) = 5.508 Bernier (.95)***- Connolly (2.9) - Kotalik (2.333) = 6.183 Paille (1.0)****- Mair (.758) - Kaleta (.492) = 2.25 extra forwards: MacArthur (.75)***** - Peters (.522) = 1.272 Spacek (3.3) - Sekera (.65) = 3.95 Tallinder (2.562) - Lydman (2.875) = 5.437 Weber (.558) - Paetsch (.85) = 1.41 extra defenseman: Pratt (.65)****** =.65 Miller (2.667)- Free Agent (.75)******** = 3.417 Total Salary (cap hit) - 41.554 *Hecht's '08 cap number is 3.525 based on contract extension numbers **Gaustad's cap number based on projected RFA offer ***Bernier's cap number based on projected RFA offer ****Paille's cap number based on projected RFA offer *****MacArthur's cap number based on projected RFA offer ******Pratt's cap number based on projected UFA offer *******Free Agent goalie cap number based on projected UFA offer I know you stipulated a 47 million dollar cap number but I don't anticipate the Sabres signing any UFA outside of a backup goalie and Nolan Pratt. I personally would like them to move Connolly and Afingenov but I just don't see it happening at this point in time.
carpandean Posted March 16, 2008 Report Posted March 16, 2008 Ink's guess. I agree with most of your numbers, but have two questions: 1) You don't see Max getting traded, but you also don't have him on the list. Did you send him down to our farm team? 2) What is total number of players allowed on the team? I though it was 22 (usually 13 forwards, 7 defensemen, 2 goalies), but you have 23.
inkman Posted March 16, 2008 Report Posted March 16, 2008 I agree with most of your numbers, but have two questions:1) You don't see Max getting traded, but you also don't have him on the list. Did you send him down to our farm team? Terrible off-season accident? :ph34r: 2) What is total number of players allowed on the team? I though it was 22 (usually 13 forwards, 7 defensemen, 2 goalies), but you have 23. Umm... :unsure:
tom webster Posted March 17, 2008 Author Report Posted March 17, 2008 Terrible off-season accident? :ph34r: Umm... :unsure: Teams are allowed to keep 23 but a lot of teams have taken to keeping only 22 to lower cap number One other thing, I am checking this post to see if there are any questions but am trying to avoid reading full post so as not to influence final call.
carpandean Posted March 17, 2008 Report Posted March 17, 2008 I'll use ink's estimates for the RFAs to be consistent (they were close to mine anyway), but I did correct Sekera's and Weber's cap hits (according to nhlnumbers.com). Most of the lines are the same as what I would have guessed, just Paille/Stafford switched (that could change during the season), but Max has to be counted unless he is traded. Thus, without trades, I get: Vanek (7.143) - Roy (4.0) - Paille (1.0) = 12.143 Hecht (3.525) - Gaustad (.95)- Pominville (1.033) = 5.508 Bernier (.95) - Connolly (2.9) - Kotalik (2.333) = 6.183 Stafford (.984) - Mair (.758) - Kaleta (.492) = 2.234 extra forwards: Max (3.333) - Peters (.522) = 3.855 MacArthur stays in Rochester as first call up. Spacek (3.3) - Sekera (.675) = 3.975 Tallinder (2.562) - Lydman (2.875) = 5.437 Weber (.750) - Paetsch (.85) = 1.60 extra defenseman: Pratt (.65) =.65 Miller (2.667)- Free Agent (.75) = 3.417 Total Salary (cap hit) - 45.08 I'd still like to see one move for the blueline. The best possible case would be to make a trade of Max and a pick (or even Stafford or MacArthur) for a solid, veteran defensemen with some team out West that has seen his highlights on YouTube and thinks they can fix any shortcomings. This would free up some of the congestion at forward and fill a need in the back end. As I said before, we could either let Pratt walk or keep Weber in the AHL for another year. However, this is unlikely to happen. As for Pominville and Miller, a lot will free up in 2009-10. Max, Timmy and Kotalik are all UFAs, which is over $8.5 Million of cap space. Pominville will probably go up about $3 Million (from $1.033 to about $4 Million) and Miller will go up about $3.33 Million (from $2.667 to $6 Million) -- give or take -- which at the same cap ($47 Million) means another $2.16 Million of room. We might even re-sign Ales for about that much, which would be ok. Spacek would be up again as an UFA, but I don't see him getting a big raise. Stafford, Kaleta and Sekera would also be RFAs, so that might add a little bit, depending on how well they play. It still looks like a $3 Million/yr defenseman signed this year (for 2008-09) would likely fit under the cap the following year (2009-10). However, even if we dropped all three (Max, Timmy and Ales), the cap and the Sabres' spending would have to go up to add significant players at both forward (center) and at defense.
LabattBlue Posted March 17, 2008 Report Posted March 17, 2008 I probably screwed this up somewhere along the way since I changed it about 10 times... :rolleyes: :rolleyes: Moves Peters and Ryan pack your bags for destination unknown Trade Connolly for a pick or prospect Trade Max for a pick or prospect Sign RFA Bernier 3 years 4.5 mil Sign RFA Gaustad 5 years 8 mil Sign RFA Paille 4 years 6 mil MacArthur gets a qualifying offer(I believe this is a 10% increase) Sign Johan Hedberg 2 years 2.2 mil Sign Brooks Orpik 5 years 10 mil Sign Daymond Langkow 4 years 16 mil Vanek $7.1430 Roy $4.0000 Langkow $4.0000 Hecht $3.5250 Kotalik $2.3330 Gaustad $1.6000 Bernier $1.5000 Paille $1.5000 Pominville $1.0330 Stafford $0.9840 Mair $0.7580 MacArthur $0.7000 Kaleta $0.4920 Spacek $3.3300 Lydman $2.8750 Tallinder $2.5620 Orpik $2.0000 Paetsch $0.8500 Weber $0.7500 Sekera $0.6750 Miller $2.6670 Hedberg $1.1000 Total 08-09 Cap $46.3770 08-09 Lineup Vanek-Roy-Stafford Bernier-Langkow-Pominville Paille-Gaustad-Hecht Kaleta-Mair-Kotalik-MacArthur Lydman-Tallinder Spacek-Orpik Sekera-Weber-Paetsch Miller-Hedberg 08-09 Amerks Forwards - Zagrapan, Hunter, Mancari, Gragnani, Kennedy, Gerbe, Gogulla, Schultz, Breault & 2 or 3 AHL gritty vets to keep Amerks56 happy(assuming the Sabres farm team is in Rochester)! Defense - Funk, Card, Butler & 3 AHL blueliners with some experience Goalies - Enorth & Dennis In 09-10 with new contracts for Miller & Pominville, Miller's cap number goes from 2.667 to 6 and Pominville's from 1 to 4. That is an extra 6.5 mil. Let Kotalik and Spacek go via FA which brings the 6.5 increase down to under a mil.. Bring in 2 low priced vets or prospects to replace them(Spacek and Kotalik) at a total of 1.5 mil and that leaves you around a 48-49 mil cap number for 09-10. PS If I win, I pass on the tickets! I go to enough games, somebody else deserves a chance.
carpandean Posted March 17, 2008 Report Posted March 17, 2008 MovesPeters and Ryan pack your bags for destination unknown Trade Connolly for a pick or prospect Trade Max for a pick or prospect Sign RFA Bernier 3 years 4.5 mil Sign RFA Gaustad 5 years 8 mil Sign RFA Paille 4 years 6 mil Peters is under contract for next season, so he'd have to be traded, sent down or we'd have to eat his salary (not sure any of these are bad options). I hope you are right on Connolly and Max (would completely change the picture for this coming season), but you have to find someone willing to pay their salaries. On the other hand, if your numbers are right for the RFA's (about $2 Million higher than ink/my numbers, but you may be right), then we aren't making any signings without trades to free up cap space (again, would be nice if you are right about making trades.)
carpandean Posted March 17, 2008 Report Posted March 17, 2008 If we could trade off Max (maybe with some sweeteners), hopefully for a top 4 blue liner: Vanek (7.143) - Roy (4.0) - Paille (1.0) = 12.143 Hecht (3.545) - Gaustad (0.95) - Pominville (1.033) = 5.528 Bernier (0.95) - Connolly (2.90) - Kotalik (2.333) = 6.183 Stafford (0.984) - Mair (0.758) - Kaleta (0.492) = 2.234 extra forwards: MacArthur (0.75), Peters (0.522) = 1.272 Spacek (3.333) - Sekera (0.650) = 3.983 Tallinder (2.562) - Top 4 Dman (3.0) = 5.562 Weber/Pratt* (0.750) - Lydman (2.875) = 3.625 extra defenseman: Paetsch (0.85) = 0.85 Miller (2.667)- Free Agent (0.75) = 3.417 Total Salary (cap hit) - 44.797 * Re-sign Pratt and keep Weber in the AHL, or drop Pratt and bring up Weber. Salaries won't be significantly different. (Note: number in italics are unknown value) For 2009-10: Vanek (7.143) - Roy (4.0) - Paille (1.0) = 12.143 Hecht (3.545) - 2nd Line Center (4.0) - Pominville (4.0) = 11.545 MacArthur (0.750) - Gaustad (0.95) - Bernier (0.95) = 2.65 Stafford (1.0) - Mair (0.758) - Kaleta (0.750) = 2.508 extra forwards: Current AHL forward (0.750) = 0.750 Spacek (3.333) - Sekera (1.5) = 4.833 Tallinder (2.562) - Top 4 Dman (3.0) = 5.562 Weber (0.750) - Lydman (2.875) = 3.625 extra defenseman: Paetsch (0.85) =0.85 Miller (6.0)- Free Agent (0.75) = 6.75 Total Salary (cap hit) - 51.206 There are a lot of unknowns in the 2009-10 line-up. In addition to those that are free agents this summer, next summer we will see Stafford, Kaleta, Spacek and Sekera come up. Fortunately, other than Spacek, these are RFAs, not UFAs. Depending on these contract values (you never know how people will play next year), if we do sign Miller for about a $6 Million cap hit and Pominville for a $4 Million cap hit, then with just the two pick-ups shown above, we are around the $50 Million mark. Some savings could be made by keeping Pratt (instead of adding a top-4 Dman) and re-singing Spacek or bringing in a replacement when his contract is up in 2009-10 (depending on how he plays next season and what salary he expects). If Sekera plays as much as it seems he might next year, then he will likely deserve a little more than a low contract, though $1.5 Million may be high. Unfortunately, Tallinder and Lydman will still be under contract. If we could trade one of them off, it would do a lot to free up cap space. Up front, much of what we save by dropping Max and Timmy (and maybe Ales) will be taken up by Pominville and Miller, so signing a true second-line center may stretch the budget. Gaustad could stay on the second line and a new third-line center could be brought in for less. Stafford may get a bigger pay day if he snaps out of his slump or he may turn into a fourth-line grinder (I think he will snap out of it, but you never know). Dropping Kotalik (may or may not be worth re-signing him), then MacArthur can move back up into the line-up, with one of the AHL boys sitting in the press box until needed for injuries.
tom webster Posted March 17, 2008 Author Report Posted March 17, 2008 Two tickets 100 Level preferred playoff tickets to what I consider the best post formulating next season's roster with Salary Cap numbers.A couple conditions; 1) No reference to what might have been 2) Next years cap number must be $47 million with allowances made for Miller and Pomminstein the next year. 3) Can use generic terms like #2 center, #2 defensemen I, and a couple of friends are sole judge and jury. From your friend, Spinner Spenser As someone colorfully pointed out to me, I left no deadline. I will call it either the end of the week or when there is a 24 hour gap between posts which may be as early as tomorrowmoring at 11am.
shrader Posted March 17, 2008 Report Posted March 17, 2008 MacArthur - will need a new contract and may get another season in the AHL if we can't free up room. Might somebody put in an offer sheet? MacArthur will not see the AHL next season. He will be waiver eligible and someone would pick him up immediately if waived. No one will sign him to an offer sheet though. That will still be reserved for the elite RFA talent.
tom webster Posted March 18, 2008 Author Report Posted March 18, 2008 Looks like were down to three hours and only two contestants want the tickets. Last call.
inkman Posted March 18, 2008 Report Posted March 18, 2008 Looks like were down to three hours and only two contestants want the tickets. Last call. I'm starting to wonder if this thread was some sort of psychological test as to our positive/negative attitudes toward the Sabres. :unsure:
tom webster Posted March 18, 2008 Author Report Posted March 18, 2008 I'm starting to wonder if this thread was some sort of psychological test as to our positive/negative attitudes toward the Sabres. :unsure: There were more than a couple of agendas at work here when we put the contests out there. Some more transparent than others. I was kind of surprised at tha lack of respponses given the apparent optimism that seems to be associated with this board. One point that I was trying to make was the amount of cap space available if they really want to use it as well as how its not easy to say they should sign this or that without saying instead of who, as in someone saying that Kotalik should get 3 - 3.5 without saying where he fits. What do you think the responses and lack of more says?
inkman Posted March 18, 2008 Report Posted March 18, 2008 What do you think the responses and lack of more says? People are lazy... :unsure:
tom webster Posted March 18, 2008 Author Report Posted March 18, 2008 People are lazy... :unsure: Sometimes the obvious and simplest answer is the right answer.
carpandean Posted March 18, 2008 Report Posted March 18, 2008 Sometimes the obvious and simplest answer is the right answer. Occam's razor
shrader Posted March 18, 2008 Report Posted March 18, 2008 What do you think the responses and lack of more says? It says that I'm too lazy to bother looking through numbers and that I have no reason to try to get tickets when I live somewhere else.
R_Dudley Posted March 18, 2008 Report Posted March 18, 2008 There were more than a couple of agendas at work here when we put the contests out there. Some more transparent than others. I was kind of surprised at tha lack of respponses given the apparent optimism that seems to be associated with this board.One point that I was trying to make was the amount of cap space available if they really want to use it as well as how its not easy to say they should sign this or that without saying instead of who, as in someone saying that Kotalik should get 3 - 3.5 without saying where he fits. What do you think the responses and lack of more says? Well in my case it says; 1.) I live out of town and probabilty of me making it in to the game depending on what day it was for was low. 2.) I did not have the energy or time to put into to it to do it right w/ the risk of above.
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