Gretzky vs. Crosby

[Goodfella25]

I was procrastinating at work today and I wanted to look at Crosby vs. Gretzky in their first 2 seasons. Here's Wayne's stats thru his first 5 seasons:

 

 

GP G A TP PIM +/- PP SH GW GT Shots Pct

79 51 86 137 21 0 13 1 6 4 284 17.96

80 55 109 164 28 41 15 4 3 2 261 21.07

80 92 120 212 26 81 18 6 12 3 369 24.93

80 71 125 196 59 60 18 6 9 0 348 20.40

74 87 118 205 39 76 20 12 11 0 324 26.85

 

Here's Sid so far:

GP G A Pts +/- PIM Shots Sh%

81 39 63 102 -1 110 278 14.03

62 27 71 98 +10 50 185 14.59 on pace for 79GP 34G 90A 124PTS

 

Obviously Sid is not Gretzky, but for a long time so many people said no one would ever come close to his records...what do you think Sid's chances are of taking second place to Gretzky one day? Do you think that one day someone will challege Gretzky's single-season records? Crosby may not be the one, but love him or hate him, he's one hell of a gifted hockey player and probably the best playmaker since Gretzky.

[Bmwolf21]

It's going to be tough for Sid, for a few reasons:

1. goalies are a hell of a lot better now than they were in Wayne's heyday

2. despite the NHL's efforts to crackdown on obstruction, between obstruction, the increased size, speed and skill of opposing defenses means less room for star players to work their magic

3. the salary cap will likely prevent the Pens from surrounding Crosby with and keeping complementary talent around him, while Gretzky had guys like Kurri, Tikanen (sp?), Messier, Andersen, Coffey...who knows if the Pens will be able to keep Malkin, Whitney, Malone, Staal, etc.

 

I think he has the talent to make a run at Gretzky's #'s, but there will be a lot of obstacles to overcome.

[scottnc]

Obviously Sid is not Gretzky, but for a long time so many people said no one would ever come close to his records...what do you think Sid's chances are of taking second place to Gretzky one day? Do you think that one day someone will challege Gretzky's single-season records? Crosby may not be the one, but love him or hate him, he's one hell of a gifted hockey player and probably the best playmaker since Gretzky.

 

Let's not forget about Mario Lemieux here who, had it not been for various injuries throughout his career, probably would have broken a lot of Wayne's career records at least. That being said it's tough to compare Sid yet as he's only in his second season. So far so good but I don't think we'll have a real answer to this question for a few more years yet. Compounding the issue is the fact that the game is a lot different today than it was in Wayne's heyday.

[will]

to echo the mario reference/possibility, there is always the chance sid could become the next ken griffey jr. in a manner of speaking. hank aaron actually picked him as the most likely candidate to break his hr record, but the body just didn't hold up to ken's 110% effort in centerfield and on the basepaths day after day. there's a lot of uncertainty in a fast sport where injuries play a big factor in on-ice success.

 

can you imagine where wayne might have ended up if he didn't have the back problems later in his career?

[pkwwjd]

I don't think in the long run Sid will even come close. Next year at the trading deadline, Kansas City will trade Sid to some borderline playoff contender that will slowly be sinking back into mediocrity again (LA Kings, Phoenix ...). Sid will never be surrounded by quality talent again. He'll put up 30G & 50A but never look really powerful.

[shrader]

It's going to be tough for Sid, for a few reasons:

1. goalies are a hell of a lot better now than they were in Wayne's heyday

2. despite the NHL's efforts to crackdown on obstruction, between obstruction, the increased size, speed and skill of opposing defenses means less room for star players to work their magic

3. the salary cap will likely prevent the Pens from surrounding Crosby with and keeping complementary talent around him, while Gretzky had guys like Kurri, Tikanen (sp?), Messier, Andersen, Coffey...who knows if the Pens will be able to keep Malkin, Whitney, Malone, Staal, etc.

 

I think he has the talent to make a run at Gretzky's #'s, but there will be a lot of obstacles to overcome.

 

I think you missed out on one important point here, the increased size and strength of the players in todays game. The biggest obstacle in Crosby's way could be the risk of serious injury.

[Bmwolf21]

It's going to be tough for Sid, for a few reasons:

1. goalies are a hell of a lot better now than they were in Wayne's heyday

2. despite the NHL's efforts to crackdown on obstruction, between obstruction, the increased size, speed and skill of opposing defenses means less room for star players to work their magic

3. the salary cap will likely prevent the Pens from surrounding Crosby with and keeping complementary talent around him, while Gretzky had guys like Kurri, Tikanen (sp?), Messier, Andersen, Coffey...who knows if the Pens will be able to keep Malkin, Whitney, Malone, Staal, etc.

 

I think he has the talent to make a run at Gretzky's #'s, but there will be a lot of obstacles to overcome.

I think you missed out on one important point here, the increased size and strength of the players in todays game. The biggest obstacle in Crosby's way could be the risk of serious injury.

I'll give you partial credit on that one, shrader. I have the increased size & speed of opposing players=less room on the ice, but didn't tie in the injury angle. I thought about adding the "staying healthy" aspect but for some reason edited it out. :beer:

[Taro T]

I think you missed out on one important point here, the increased size and strength of the players in todays game. The biggest obstacle in Crosby's way could be the risk of serious injury.

Of course protective equipment and medical science continue to advance to make a lot of plays that resulted in injuries (such as a stick or puck toward to eyes or knee on knee hits) that were once career ending to now just keep a player out for a few weeks to a few months.

[shrader]

Of course protective equipment and medical science continue to advance to make a lot of plays that resulted in injuries (such as a stick or puck toward to eyes or knee on knee hits) that were once career ending to now just keep a player out for a few weeks to a few months.

 

And at the same time, the equipment can add to the injuries, specifically concussions, which look like the biggest career threat in the game right now. Whether or not the league steps up and addresses this situation is a discussion for another thread.

[sabreman]

not stacking up much!

[gregkash]

sid plays in a time where long careers like Gretzky's don't happen very often..

 

I doubt Sid will compete for any of Wayne's Records but it's not gonna be because he's not Wayne Talented.

[Bmwolf21]

BTW, TSN (about 1/2way down on the right) is tracking Sid's numbers vs. Wayne's (current season only) and they have him on pace for 35-92-127 - 10 points off Wayne's pace for his second season.

 

Still I think he has the talent to make a serious run at Wayne's numbers, but it will depend on a lot of outside factors - how good his surrounding cast is, how the NHL & refs continue to call the game, if he stays healthy, etc.

 

not stacking up much!

It's not really a fair comparison. Aside from the obvious differences - better goalies now, bigger, faster defensemen, less leeway for stars, Wayne had something Sidney didn't for his first two years in the NHL - a year in the WHA.

 

Granted, the easiest way to compare them is to use their first two NHL seasons, since Sid didn't have the option of playing in the WHA. But I wanted to see how their first two pro seasons stacked up, which is why I totaled Wayne's numbers for his first two years as a pro (WHA + NHL rookie season) and compared them to Sid's #'s for his first two years to date, and also added his pace.

 

Wayne:

1978-79 (Indy & Edmonton - WHA) 80 GP 46-64-110

1979-80 (Edmonton - NHL) 79 GP 51-86-137

 

Sid:

2005-06 Pitt 81 GP 39-63-102

2006-07 Pitt 62 GP 27-71-98

On Pace: Pitt 79GP 35-92-127

 

Totals:

Wayne: 159GP 97G-150-237

Sidney: 143GP 66G-134-200

Sid's Pace: 160GP 74G-155-229

 

Again, if you compare the first two NHL seasons, it's not close (at Sid's current pace, around 100 points difference.) But in terms of development and learning how to dominate the league, I don't think you can discount how important that year in the WHA was to Wayne. It will be interesting to see how well Sidney stays on pace with Wayne and Mario.

[gregkash]

That's an interesting point.

[Taro T]

BTW, TSN (about 1/2way down on the right) is tracking Sid's numbers vs. Wayne's (current season only) and they have him on pace for 35-92-127 - 10 points off Wayne's pace for his second season.

 

Still I think he has the talent to make a serious run at Wayne's numbers, but it will depend on a lot of outside factors - how good his surrounding cast is, how the NHL & refs continue to call the game, if he stays healthy, etc.

 

It's not really a fair comparison. Aside from the obvious differences - better goalies now, bigger, faster defensemen, less leeway for stars, Wayne had something Sidney didn't for his first two years in the NHL - a year in the WHA.

 

Granted, the easiest way to compare them is to use their first two NHL seasons, since Sid didn't have the option of playing in the WHA. But I wanted to see how their first two pro seasons stacked up, which is why I totaled Wayne's numbers for his first two years as a pro (WHA + NHL rookie season) and compared them to Sid's #'s for his first two years to date, and also added his pace.

 

Wayne:

1978-79 (Indy & Edmonton - WHA) 80 GP 46-64-110

1979-80 (Edmonton - NHL) 79 GP 51-86-137

 

Sid:

2005-06 Pitt 81 GP 39-63-102

2006-07 Pitt 62 GP 27-71-98

On Pace: Pitt 79GP 35-92-127

 

Totals:

Wayne: 159GP 97G-150-237

Sidney: 143GP 66G-134-200

Sid's Pace: 160GP 74G-155-229

 

Again, if you compare the first two NHL seasons, it's not close (at Sid's current pace, around 100 points difference.) But in terms of development and learning how to dominate the league, I don't think you can discount how important that year in the WHA was to Wayne. It will be interesting to see how well Sidney stays on pace with Wayne and Mario.

Not to take anything away from your point, but I assume you do realize that Wayne was 17 when he was in the WHA, and both were 18 in their 1st NHL seasons. 110 points, even in a 1B league, at the age of 17 is pretty amazing.

[Bmwolf21]

Thanks, Dave. Wasn't really going for any real solid point, just to point out that while the 1st 2 years of their NHL careers seem damn similar, it isn't exactly an apples-to-apples comparison. I am amazed at what Wayne was able to accomplish, and I wonder what Sidney might have done in his first year in the NHL had he been afforded the opportunity to play one year at a higher level than the QMJHL.

 

Having never seen any of the WHA play, I don't know how to rank it in comparison to other leagues - would Crosby playing in the AHL in 2004-05 been more beneficial to him than playing another year in the Q? I don't know. Someone smarter than me would have to weigh in on the relative toughness of the WHA, competition-wise, and give an educated guess as to how that year impacted his development. I do see some big names listed on WHA rosters, including Bobby Hull, Gordie Howe, Rick Vaive :thumbsup: so I have to believe that playing with and against that kind of competition was probably more beneficial to Wayne's development than being a big fish in a little pond (Crosby/QMJHL) but I also don't know if Sid had many other options, given the lockout, the CBA and the lack of an alternate pro league...

[Taro T]

Thanks, Dave. Wasn't really going for any real solid point, just to point out that while the 1st 2 years of their NHL careers seem damn similar, it isn't exactly an apples-to-apples comparison. I am amazed at what Wayne was able to accomplish, and, I wonder what Sidney might have done in his first year in the NHL had he been afforded the opportunity to play one year at a higher level than the QMJHL.

 

Having never seen any of the WHA play, I don't know how to rank it in comparison to other leagues - would Crosby playing in the AHL in 2004-05 been more beneficial to him than playing another year in the Q? I don't know. Someone smarter than me would have to weigh in on the relative toughness of the WHA, competition-wise, and give an educated guess as to how that year impacted his development. I do see some big names listed on WHA rosters, including Bobby Hull, Gordie Howe, Rick Vaive :thumbsup: so I have to believe that playing with and against that kind of competition was probably more beneficial to Wayne's development than being a big fish in a little pond (Crosby/QMJHL) but I also don't know if Sid had many other options, given the lockout, the CBA and the lack of an alternate pro league...

Like you say, it's a tough comparison because it isn't apples to apples. Sid has been pretty comparable to Wayne though at each level where they do have comparables. In addition to the stats you tracked down, here are their last years in junior (again Wayne 1 year younger).

 

Wayne - 64 gp 70-112-182

Sid - 62 gp 66-102-168

 

Sid led the Q in all 3 categories. It doesn't appear that Wayne lead the OHL in any (no data on who did lead in goals, Bobby Smith lead in points), but again he was only 16 and did make 2nd team all star that year.

[Bmwolf21]

Wayne was 2nd in goals, assists and points in the OHA that year (1977-78):

LINK

 

Points

1 Bobby Smith, Ottawa..............192

2 Wayne Gretzky, Sault Ste. Marie..182

3 Dino Ciccarelli, London..........142

 

Goals

1 Dino Ciccarelli, London.......... 72

2 Wayne Gretzky, Sault Ste. Marie.. 70

3 Bobby Smith, Ottawa.............. 69

 

t10 Mike Foligno, Sudbury............ 47 :thumbsup:

 

Assists

1 Bobby Smith, Ottawa..............123

2 Wayne Gretzky, Sault Ste. Marie..112

3 Steve Marengere, Ottawa.......... 93

 

Just shows how tough it is to predict how well a guy will do by just looking at his numbers. It will be interesting to see if Sid's career path follows Wayne's, and if he can stay healthy enough to make a run at any of his numbers. I don't think we'll see anyone come close to the single-season goals or even the assists/points records, so if Sid does want to make a run at his records, he'll have to maintain a high level of play for longer than Wayne did.

[BRH]

Wayne was 2nd in goals, assists and points in the OHA that year (1977-78):

LINK

 

Points

1 Bobby Smith, Ottawa..............192

2 Wayne Gretzky, Sault Ste. Marie..182

3 Dino Ciccarelli, London..........142

 

Goals

1 Dino Ciccarelli, London.......... 72

2 Wayne Gretzky, Sault Ste. Marie.. 70

3 Bobby Smith, Ottawa.............. 69

 

t10 Mike Foligno, Sudbury............ 47 :thumbsup:

 

Assists

1 Bobby Smith, Ottawa..............123

2 Wayne Gretzky, Sault Ste. Marie..112

3 Steve Marengere, Ottawa.......... 93

 

Just shows how tough it is to predict how well a guy will do by just looking at his numbers. It will be interesting to see if Sid's career path follows Wayne's, and if he can stay healthy enough to make a run at any of his numbers. I don't think we'll see anyone come close to the single-season goals or even the assists/points records, so if Sid does want to make a run at his records, he'll have to maintain a high level of play for longer than Wayne did.

Bobby Smith turned 20 that season (1977-1978) when he led the OHA and was in his third full season in the league. Dino Ciccarelli turned 18 that same year and was in his second season. Gretzky started that season -- his first full season in the league -- at 16 and finished it at 17. Seen through that prism, the numbers are even more impressive -- Gretzky was just ten points off the pace set by a guy who was three years older, forty points ahead of the top 18-year-old, and I'm sure he blew away any other 16-year-old in the league.

[Goodfella25]

It's interesting to think about who has the marbles to take a run at Crosby. If/when the Pens make the playoffs, that might be the time where Sid finally starts getting hit. Granted, he does have big Georges Laraque there to protect him now, but as we saw with the Drury hit/NHL response to it, the league is doing nothing to protect its star players (also look at the 3 game suspension for Janssen=slap on the wrist). So in terms of durability, we'll see if anyone ever has the marbles to run him. And THEN let's see how the league handles it when their poster child is hit "late but not dirty." <_< I guess I'm trying to change the direction of this thread

[Hawerchuk]

Crosby needs to get 93 goals to break the record for a season. If not, he's terrible! Trade him!! :lol:

[Alaska Darin]

It's interesting to think about who has the marbles to take a run at Crosby. If/when the Pens make the playoffs, that might be the time where Sid finally starts getting hit.

Are you kidding? Crosby get's mugged virtually every shift, every night. That's the reason they went and got Laraque in the first place.

 

Crosby is even more amazing to me than Gretzky, simply because the skill and quality of player has evolved so much since Gretzky's heyday.

[X. Benedict]

Are you kidding? Crosby get's mugged virtually every shift, every night. That's the reason they went and got Laraque in the first place.

 

Crosby is even more amazing to me than Gretzky, simply because the skill and quality of player has evolved so much since Gretzky's heyday.

 

Of course Gretzky had Semenko and McSorley around to keep things awfully polite too.

Crosby has had Laraque for about a week.

 

EDIT: A point I now realize you made hours ago on the Bills board.

[Alaska Darin]

Of course Gretzky had Semenko and McSorley around to keep things awfully polite too.

Crosby has had Laraque for about a week.

 

EDIT: A point I now realize you made hours ago on the Bills board.

And Lee Fogolin.

And Kevin McLellan

And Mark Messier

 

Have I mentioned lately I hate Wayne Gretzky? Nice team in Phoenix there, Wayne-o. :lol:

[Goodfella25]

Are you kidding? Crosby get's mugged virtually every shift, every night. That's the reason they went and got Laraque in the first place.

 

Crosby is even more amazing to me than Gretzky, simply because the skill and quality of player has evolved so much since Gretzky's heyday.

 

 

I'm not talking about him getting "mugged." I am talking about a hit, not a scrum in front of the net. The kind of hit that makes the audience go "ohhhhhh." I'm not talking about a guy like Jason Blake giving him a little spear in the stomach. Let's see Chris Neil or Sean Avery or Kasparaitis(if he was still around) hit him open ice, then see what happens. See how the league responds.

 

BTW, Gretzky had the upper body strength of a 13 year old, so obviously Crosby is a better athelete. But Gretzky had that amazing hockey sense to go with the skills...that natural awareness. Don't get me wrong though, I never liked Gretzky and still don't, and Crosby will probably reach that level of annoyance at some point.

[Bmwolf21]

How many times was Wayne hit like that in the open ice? I can't remember many...

 

For that matter, how often did guys hit Wayne along the boards? IIRC, there weren't a lot of guys who wanted to touch him for the fear of retribution from Semenko, McSorely, Messier, Fogolin, etc.