Jim Lorenz Made An Interesting Point Last Night

[bob_sauve28]

I would too, but you forget a few things: as an RFA they don't need to offer that much and, imo, won't with as close to the cap as they are now. They will most likely do the 1 year, minimum mandated raise this off-season. As for the 3 years, $8 million figure, what do you dump to clear up the cap space? Obviously if Briere and/or Drury go, there is plenty to spare, but if they make a play for both in anticipation of dumping Nummy's salary amoung others to do it, they will likely still be close to the cap. Lastly, this was just an example number I tossed out. Teams could potentially offer more.

Which brings me back to part of my original point. Max. I think he might be gone next season with his 3 million plus contract

[Guest Sloth]

I don't think anyone is really thinking about the Sabres owner point of view of the salary cap. Yes, it is going to go up, but how do we if the Sabres owner is going to spend that kind of money?

 

I'm worried he's not going to increase to the next cap, but you never know. It may all depend on how the Sabres finish this year.

[Taro T]

I don't think anyone is really thinking about the Sabres owner point of view of the salary cap. Yes, it is going to go up, but how do we if the Sabres owner is going to spend that kind of money?

 

I'm worried he's not going to increase to the next cap, but you never know. It may all depend on how the Sabres finish this year.

It'll all depend on what TG expects revenues to be next year. If he thinks the team can reasonably break even or show a profit while spending to the cap, they will spend to the cap.

 

If he expects spending to the cap to cause himself a $10MM loss, the Sabres won't spend close to the cap.

 

Without going through the exercise of estimating how revenues will change next year, I do expect the Sabres to have more $'s to spend on players next year (ticket prices are going up, it sounds like merchandise prices will be up (based on prices of the new style unis), and I'd expect advertising revenues to be up) and do expect their payroll to be ~$2MM below the salary cap. The $2MM below figure is an estimate of what the team will need to not be in "salary cap hell" with regards to bringing players in for injury replacements and the like.

 

Also remember, as most of the teams will likely be close to the salary cap, the nominal value of player contracts will be ~10% higher than their true value; so if the Sabres "actual" player payroll is $46MM, the true salary outlay would be a bit under $42MM.

[tragicheroparade]

I remember when Max first came up. He has never really seemed to find that finishing touch, but he could be worth a Drury or a Briere if he ever did. And a lot of this seems so right: Max should be the ultimate table setter -- he gives defenders absolute fits and seems to clear half the ice for the rest of his line, but the puck never finds its way there. That is frustrating. But the type of player Max is makes it hard to want to get rid of him. He's fiery -- he seems to play to win.

[Taro T]

I remember when Max first came up. He has never really seemed to find that finishing touch, but he could be worth a Drury or a Briere if he ever did. And a lot of this seems so right: Max should be the ultimate table setter -- he gives defenders absolute fits and seems to clear half the ice for the rest of his line, but the puck never finds its way there. That is frustrating. But the type of player Max is makes it hard to want to get rid of him. He's fiery -- he seems to play to win.

That's where Max is a really interesting situation. He is such an entertaining player that a team that is having problems putting fans in the stands could be willing to overpay for him.

 

I'm not saying I want to see him traded. I'm just saying he could bring back more than any of us expect that he'd bring back.

[Mikeleelop]

interesting cap info here. we have 25.5 million tied up on 12 players next year. this is excluding biron and numinem (see below) since they are UFA.

 

if you sign briere and drury for $5m/yr contracts you would have say $36 million tied up on 14 players. If you need a 23 man roster that leaves you approx 11 million (assuming salary cap of $47 million) for 9 more players. It is "doable", but some adjustments may be required ie. Max & Kotalik

 

 

Buffalo Sabres

# Player Age 06/07 Cap Hit 06/07 Salary 07/08 Salary 08/09 Salary 09/10 Salary Comment

Forwards (14) 22.512

48 Briere, Daniel © 28 5.000 5.000 UFA

61 Afinogenov, Maxim (RW) 26 3.333 3.000 3.500 3.500 UFA

23 Drury, Chris © 29 3.040 3.154 UFA

12 Kotalik, Ales (RW) 27 2.333 2.000 2.500 2.500 UFA

55 Hecht, Jochen © 29 2.200 2.350 2.350 UFA

29 Pominville, Jason (RW) 23 1.033 0.800 0.925 1.375 RFA

21 *Stafford, Drew (RW) 20 0.984 0.984 0.984 0.984 RFA

26 *Vanek, Thomas (LW) 22 0.942 0.942 RFA

20 *Paille, Dan (LW) 22 0.722 0.760 RFA

28 Gaustad, Paul © 24 0.713 0.675 0.750 RFA

22 Mair, Adam © 27 0.675 0.675 UFA

9 Roy, Derek © 23 0.627 0.627 RFA

76 Peters, Andrew (LW) 26 0.460 0.460 RFA

13 *Novotny, Jiri © 22 0.450 0.450 RFA

Defencemen (7) 15.366

6 Spacek, Jaroslav 32 3.333 3.225 3.475 3.300 UFA

5 Lydman, Toni 28 2.875 2.300 2.900 3.150 3.150 UFA

27 Numminen, Teppo 37 2.600 2.600 UFA

10 Tallinder, Henrik 27 2.563 1.600 2.500 2.900 3.250 UFA

45 Kalinin, Dimitri 25 2.000 1.750 2.250 UFA

51 Campbell, Brian 27 1.500 1.250 1.750 UFA

38 *Paetsch, Nathan 23 0.495 0.495 RFA

Goaltenders (2) 4.795

30 Miller, Ryan 25 2.667 2.000 2.500 3.500 UFA

43 Biron, Martin 28 2.128 2.128 UFA

Other

19 Connolly, Tim © 25 2.900 2.200 3.000 3.500 UFA Long Term IR

Total Cap Hit 42.673(23) 25.534 (12) 19.121 (8) 5.438 (2) 0.000(0)

Total Salary 39.225 (23) 26.384 (12) 21.209 (8) 6.400 (2) 0.000(0)

Cap Space 1.327

Average Age 26.1

 

 

Last Updated: 4:47 PM 1/22/2007

[wjag]

Don't forget, we can dump Spacek too. That will free up some change...

[ExiledInIllinois]

I would think there is a high degree of angst for injured players seeing that the team played well without them and might have even gotten better.

 

Like the old Account Temps commercial:

 

When the regular employee calls in sick... The boss replies: "Don't worry, we GOT Bob to do the job... Take as long as you want." The regular then starts sounding better with every passing second...

 

:lol: :lol:

[X. Benedict]

 

As mentioned before, the cap will likely increase. Also, do you know how many of the players on each of these teams are under contract for next year? How many will be UFAs? RFAs? Released? Traded? Arbitrated?

I was looking at the whole shebang. Just my opinion, but I don't think it is an unfounded one.

Atlanta for example has nearly half of a team that is unrestricted.

[X. Benedict]

Yes, they can. If they do not match, he goes to play with th offering team and they give the Sabres some combination of picks/prospects.

No. If the team makes a qualifying offer they have exclusive negotiating rights.

[Taro T]

No. If the team makes a qualifying offer they have exclusive negotiating rights.

Vanek needs 1 more season to have arbitration rights, but he is an RFA at the end of this season (20 years old when he signed his 1st SPC & has 3 years pro experience). So, making the QO gives the Sabres the right to match an offer or get draft picks for compensation if they don't match an offer.

[X. Benedict]

Vanek needs 1 more season to have arbitration rights, but he is an RFA at the end of this season (20 years old when he signed his 1st SPC & has 3 years pro experience). So, making the QO gives the Sabres the right to match an offer or get draft picks for compensation if they don't match an offer.

Thanks, Dave.

[bob_sauve28]

Vanek needs 1 more season to have arbitration rights, but he is an RFA at the end of this season (20 years old when he signed his 1st SPC & has 3 years pro experience). So, making the QO gives the Sabres the right to match an offer or get draft picks for compensation if they don't match an offer.

And does that mean the bigger the contract the more the team would have to give up for him in draft picks and prospects? Have many players been signed away from teams this way? Or have many big contracts been created this way that teams had to match?

[Taro T]

And does that mean the bigger the contract the more the team would have to give up for him in draft picks and prospects? Have many players been signed away from teams this way? Or have many big contracts been created this way that teams had to match?

Yes. (Compensation, if required, is ONLY in draft picks.)

Under the new CBA, 0 IIRC.

Under the new CBA, 1 IIRC.

[DrDahlinstein]

just a comment regarding the Sabres as a "small market" team.

 

the sabres have 3 jerseys in the top 5 sellers. they are in the top of the league in merch sales.

 

even the nosebleed seats go for about $65, and most of the games are at max capacity.

 

here in atlanta, the top section seats are $10, the 200s are usually $35. if you know how to get around their website, they will send you tickets to multiple games just for entering an email address.

 

yes, Buffalo is a "small market" city. but the Sabres are probably pulling in more income than a lot of teams.

 

what is the front office's reasoning in saying they do not profit much?

[bob_sauve28]

Yes. (Compensation, if required, is ONLY in draft picks.)

Under the new CBA, 0 IIRC.

Under the new CBA, 1 IIRC.

So it seems rather on the low percentage side of things that someone will try and steal Vanek from us, or try and burden us with a huge contract, but the possibility does exist.

[Screamin'Weasel]

So it seems rather on the low percentage side of things that someone will try and steal Vanek from us, or try and burden us with a huge contract, but the possibility does exist.

It has only been in place since the new CBA so it is not that tested yet. Last year Bob Clarke did just this as Philly GM. I cannot remember, but I think it was Nashville that was forced to meet a higher than expected contract.

 

Now, would you give up a draft pick for a player like Vanek? Why take a pick that will take years to develope and may even be a bust when you can trade that pick for a young player that is proven and already been trained by a team in the league that is considered by many to be the model team?

 

Yes, they have to offer a contract that is not overboard for themselves but high enough to cause the Sabres trouble. That's the important part: if they don't land him, they lose nothing but the Sabres are stuck with a higher than expected payroll increase they may or may not be able to cover. That is more or less where I think it will head: forcing teams to pay more than they had wanted, thereby preventing them from using that money to improve themselves. If you get a player like Vanek in the process, that's not bad compensation.

[Taro T]

So it seems rather on the low percentage side of things that someone will try and steal Vanek from us, or try and burden us with a huge contract, but the possibility does exist.

I wouldn't say it's a low percentage possibility, I'd actually say that it's about a 33% chance something like that could happen.

 

Teams have been learning how the system actually works these past 2 off seasons. No one (except Booby Clarke) was willing to test the RFA system during the past 2 off seasons. I'd be very surprised to see that trend continue. I don't expect to see a lot of RFA offer sheets, but I do expect to see at least a couple and possibly as many as a dozen. And a player like Vanek would be the sort that I'd expect to see someone try to cherry pick.

 

There was absolutely no idea about where leaguewide revenues were going to be post-lockout. Revenue didn't dip nearly as much as "experts" expected them to go down. Most teams also didn't truly believe, IMHO, just how much of a premium speed would command in the league post-lockout. There were a lot of big names signed coming out of the lockout to big deals that wouldn't have gotten close to what they did if GM's understood how the landscape had changed.

 

This past off-season teams and players learned more about how arbitration works in the new CBA and also how teams collectively spend on paper more than the 54% (most likely 55% this year) of total revenues owed to the players.

 

I expect things to settle into a bit of a routine after the '07-'08 season, but this year is still a learning one IMHO. It'll be interesting to see how arbitration plays out this season as teams and players may both be a little gun shy especially if their hearing gets assigned toward the end of the schedule. And it will be interesting to see what RFA offer sheets come out.

[nfreeman]

I've said much of this in other threads, but what the heck:

 

1. There is no way in the world we are trading Max. He was on pace for an 89-point season before he got hurt. He is tough, a good teammate, just entering his prime, signed for 2 more years at a reasonable salary and one of the most exciting players in the NHL.

 

2. Teppo is going to be back next year, so his salary slot is not going to be available. Yes, he's 38. That doesn't automatically mean he's going to retire. There a number of defensemen in the NHL older than Teppo (not to mention Gary Roberts, a 40-year-old forward). Why in the world would he not come back? We value his services highly (he's averaging over 21 min. per game and is IMHO our 2nd best defenseman) and will want him back, he's making good money, and he's playing an important role for a cup contender -- after going his 1st 15 years in the NHL without ever getting out of the 1st round. The climate probably feels like home to him. In short, he's in hockey heaven and he's not going anywhere.

 

3. We are not going to unload Spacek. He may not have had an all-star year, but he was a very solid defenseman and played well when healthy. He's signed for 2 more years at a slightly expensive but not crazy amount. He fits our system -- which is built around goaltending and mobile defensemen -- very well. Also, after next year Soupy will be a UFA and Teppo will be another year older -- so all the more reason to keep Spacek.

 

4. There is no way we are going to unload Connolly. He was one of the best players in the NHL when he got hurt. He was great on the PP, the PK, 5-on-5 and at making his linemates better. There do not appear to be any further concussion issues -- now it's just getting into game shape. He's also signed for 2 more years at a reasonable price.

 

5. There is a real risk that someone makes Vanek a big RFA offer, but there is no way we let him go without matching the offer (unless it's $6 million per year or more, which is pretty unlikely). He's going to score 40 in his 2nd year. The sky is the limit for this kid.

 

6. There is no way we are going to dump a bunch of our mid-priced guys in order to keep Briere and Drury. That would be completely antithetical to Darcy/Quinn/TG's entire approach. We will go up to about $6 million per year for 5 years for each of them, but if someone throws a crazy number at either of them, he is gone. That's life and it's the correct decision.

 

7. We won't need to dump the mid-priced guys in order to create slots for the kids. Some of the kids will be up with the big club next year. There is turnover every year. Zubrus will probably be gone, as well as one or both of Briere and Drury. Although I think it's pretty unlikely that we would dump Kotalik, it is possible.

 

Just my opinion.

[X. Benedict]

1-7

 

Just my opinion.

 

Great Post. That saved me a lot of typing :beer:

[jad1]

I've said much of this in other threads, but what the heck:

 

 

2. Teppo is going to be back next year, so his salary slot is not going to be available. Yes, he's 38. That doesn't automatically mean he's going to retire. There a number of defensemen in the NHL older than Teppo (not to mention Gary Roberts, a 40-year-old forward). Why in the world would he not come back? We value his services highly (he's averaging over 21 min. per game and is IMHO our 2nd best defenseman) and will want him back, he's making good money, and he's playing an important role for a cup contender -- after going his 1st 15 years in the NHL without ever getting out of the 1st round. The climate probably feels like home to him. In short, he's in hockey heaven and he's not going anywhere.

 

7. We won't need to dump the mid-priced guys in order to create slots for the kids. Some of the kids will be up with the big club next year. There is turnover every year. Zubrus will probably be gone, as well as one or both of Briere and Drury. Although I think it's pretty unlikely that we would dump Kotalik, it is possible.

 

Just my opinion.

 

In regards to #2, I agree with you about Numminem being a solid player this year. But what if they could accomplish all your other points about not shedding those guys AND keep Briere and Drury by replacing Numminem with Paetsch?

 

With Paestch progressing at his current pace, I find it hard for the Sabres to justify keeping both Numminem and Spacek at their current salary on the roster. One of those guys are going to be replaced next season.

[inkman]

You don't think a team would offer Vanek $5 million a year? I do, he is one of the best players in the league

Even so, why wouldn't the Sabres match it?

[X. Benedict]

This is a LIST OF UFA'S that I lifted from another board - it looks pretty accurate:

LW:

Vyacheslav Kozlov - ATL - 34 - 2,014,000

Marco Sturm - BOS - 28 - 2,100,000

Jeff Friesen - CGY - 30 - 1,600,000

Ray Whitney - CAR - 35 - 1,500,000

Andrew Brunette - COL - 33 - 800,000

Steve Konowalchuk - COL - 34 - 1,900,000

Fredrik Modin - CLB - 32 - 2,204,000

Brendan Morrow - DAL - 28 - 2,200,000

Ryan Smyth - EDM - 31 - 3,500,000

Petr Sykora - EDM - 30 - 2,900,000

Martin Gelinas - FLA - 37 - 975,000

Gary Roberts - FLA - 41 - 2,250,000

Paul Kariya - NSH - 32 - 4,500,000

Brendan Shanahan - NYR - 38 - 4,000,000

Martin Straka - NYR - 34 - 3,100,000

Kyle Calder - PHI - 28 - 2,950,000

Ladislav Nagy - PHX - 28 - 3,000,000

Owen Nolan - PHX - 35 - 1,250,000

John LeClair - PIT - 37 - 1,500,000

Nils Ekman - PIT - 31 - 1,100,000

Keith Tkachuk - atl - 35 - 3,800,000

Richard Zednik - WSH - 31 - 1,976,000

 

Right Wingers:

 

Teemu Selanne - ANA - 37 - 3,750,000

Scott Mellanby - ATL - 41 - 1,000,000

Tony Amonte - CGY - 36 - 1,850,000

Scott Walker - CAR - 33 - 1,520,000

Ian Laperierre - COL - 33 - 1,064,000

Stu Barnes - DAL - 36 - 1,140,000

Jere Lehtinen - DAL - 34 - 2,774,000

Tomas Holmstrom - DET - 34 - 1,501,000

Kirk Maltby - DET - RW - 34 - 1,368,000

Todd Bertuzzi - FLA - 32 - 5,269,080

Mike Johnson - MTL - 32 - 1.900.000

Alexander Mogilny - NJD - 38 - 3,500,000

Sergei Brylin - NJD - 33 - 1,520,000

Jason Blake - NYI - 33 - 1,558,000

Mike Knuble - PHI - 35 - 1,520,000

Sami Kapanen - PHI - 34 - 1,520,000

Shane Doan - PHX - 30 - 3,382,000

Mark Recchi - PIT - 39 - 2,280,000

Bill Guerin - SJS - 36 - 2,000,000

Ruslan Fedotenko - TBL - 28 - 1,650,000

Jeff O'Neill - TOR - 31 - 1,500,000

Jan Bulis - Van - 29 - 1,300,000

Dainius Zubrus - BUF - 29 - 1,850,000

 

Centres:

 

Daniel Briere - BUF - 29 - 5,000,000

Chris Drury - BUF - 30 - 3,154,000

Michal Handzus - CHI - 30 - 2,128,000

Bryan Smolinski - CHI - 35 - 1,520,000

Joe Sakic - COL - 37 - 5,750,000

Pierre Turgeon - COL - 37 - 1,500,000

Tyler Arnason - COL - 28 - 950,000

Eric Lindros - DAL - 34 - 1,550,000

Pavel Datsyuk - DET - 28 - 3,900,000

Robert Lang - DET - 36 - 3,800,000

Joe Nieuwendyk - FLA - 40 - 2,250,000

Jozef Stumple - FLA - 35 - 1,750,000

Todd White - MIN - 32 - 1,550,000

Wes Walz - MIN - 37 - 1,368,000

Radek Bonk - MTL - 31 - 2,394,000

Mike York - NYI - 29 - 2,850,000

Michael Nylander - NYR - 34 - 2,280,000

Peter Forsberg - PHI - 33 - 5,750,000

Petr Nedved - PHI - 35 - 2,356,000

Jeremy Roenick - PHX - 37 - 1,200,000

Mike Ricci - PHX - 35 - 1,520,000

Mike Peca - TOR - 33 - 2,500,000

 

Goalies:

 

Jean-Sebastien Giguere - ANA - 30 - 3,990,000

Martin Biron - BUF - 29 - 2,128,000

Patrick Lalime - CHI - 32 - 700,000

Dominik Hasek - DET - 42 - 750,000

Ed Belfour - FLA - 42 - 750,000

Dan Cloutier - LAK - 31 - 2,550,000

Mathieu Garon - LAK - 29 - 1,216,000

David Aebischer - MTL - 29 - 1,900,000

Tomas Vokoun - NSH - 30 - 2,280,000

Robert Esche - PHI - 29 - 1,000,000

Antero Niitymaki - PHI - 30 - 1,000,000

Curtis Joseph - PHX - 40 - 2,000,000

Jocelyn Thibault - PIT - 1,500,000

Manny Legace - STL - 34 - 1,400,000

Sean Burke - TBL - 40 - 1,600,000

 

Defense:

 

Sean O'Donnell - ANA - 35 - 1,520,000

Andy Sutton - ATL - 29 - 2,000,000

Greg de Vries - ATL - 33 - 2,052,000

Teppo Numminen - BUF - 39 - 2,600,000

Roman Hamrlik - CGY - 33 - 3,500,000

Glen Wesley - CAR - 38 - 1,200,000

Patrice Brisebois - COL - 36 - 3,000,000

Bryan Berard - CLB - 30 - 2,500,000

Janne Niinimaa - DAL - 32 - 2,508,000

Darryl Sydor - DAL - 35 - 2,128,000

Chris Chelios - DET - 45 - 850,000

Danny Markov - DET - 30 - 2,500,000

Mathieu Schneider - DET - 38 - 3,300,000

Steve Staios - EDM - 33 - 1,615,000

Aaron Miller - LA - 35 - 2,280,000

Andrei Markov - MTL - 28 - 2,000,000

Sheldon Souray - MTL - 30 - 2,432,000

Kimmo Timonen - NSH - 32 - 2,280,000

Brian Rafalski - NJD - 33 - 4,200,000

Sean Hill - NYI - 37 - 600,000

Tom Poti - NYI - 30 - 2,750,000

Chris Phillips - OTT - 29 - 2,204,000

Tom Preissing - OTT - 28 - 600,000

Scott Hannan - SJS - 28 - 2,204,000

Luke Richardson - TBL - 38 - 500,000

Cory Sarich - TBL - 28 - 1,900,000

Sami Salo - VAN - 33 - 1,500,000

Jamie Heward - WSH - 36 - 675,000

[MattPie]

This is a LIST OF UFA'S that I lifted from another board - it looks pretty accurate:

 

Dominik Hasek - DET - 42 - 750,000

 

Seriously?

[X. Benedict]

Seriously?

nobody wanted to touch him after he screwed Ottawa.