IKnowPhysics

Estimating based on comparables and 3rd party projections (here, here, and here): Reinhart, $6.25-7.5M, best guess $6.5M Olofsson, $4-5M bridge, best guess $4.25M Estimating based on flat-ass guessing: Linus Ullmark, $2M-2.5M, best guess $2.4M Maths: $10.5M-$15M, best guesses $13.15M Note: this leaves little room to sign anyone else, but still need upgrades at LD and, if possible, G. We might try to move an RD, such as Miller ($3.875M) or Montour ($3.85M), for an ELC LD.

Jesus, after reading that, I want an 82 game season to start tomorrow.

We have $13.646M to use, including signing RFAs. Of the four minimum QOs sent, three filed for arbitration: Reinhart, $3.65M - min $3.75M Olofsson, $0.7675 - min $0.7M Pilut, $0.925M - min $0.8325M Ullmark, $1.325M - min $1.325M

As of 3:30pm EST today, 10/12/20, the Sabres numbers are as follows: The salary cap for 2020-21 is $81.5M. The current Sabres cap space, not counting minimum qualifying offers ($6.608M), is $13.646M. The total NHL roster is currently: 12F, 9D, 2G. Cap committed to NHL players under contract (10F, 8D, 1G), totaling $65.575M of salary (new contracts in bold): Eichel, $10M Skinner, $9M Hall, $8M Okposo, $6M Staal, $3.25M Eakin, $2.25M Girgensens, $2.2M Thompson, $1.4M Lazar, $0.8M Rieder, $0.7M ($43.6M for Fs) Ristolainen (RD), $5.4M Miller (RD), $3.875M Montour (RD), $3.85M McCabe (LD), $2.85M Dahlin (LD), $0.925M Jokiharju (RD), $0.925M Davidson (LD), $0.7M Irwin (RD), $0.7M ($19.225M for 3LDs and 5RDs) Hutton, $2.75M ($2.75M for Gs) Buyout: Hodgson, $0.792M Carryover Bonus Overages: $1.4875M For RFAs and UFAs and non-rostered players, this leaves $81.5M - $65.575M - $0.792M - $1.4875= $13.646M RFAs that have been qualified and not yet signed (2F, 1D, 1G) and previous salary, totaling $6.768M, and minimum qualifying offers, totaling $6.608M: Reinhart, $3.65M - min $3.75M Olofsson, $0.7675 - min $0.7M Pilut, $0.925M - min $0.8325M Ullmark, $1.325M - min $1.325M Non-rostered players and NHL cap hit if rostered (doesn't include UFAs): Biro, $0.925M Ruotsalainen, $0.925M Cozens, $0.894M Asplund, $0.845M Murray, $0.775M Pekar, $0.764M Oglevie, $0.750M DiPietro $0.75M Dea, $0.7M CJ Smith, $0.7M Mittelstadt, QO - $0.8325 Samualsson, $0.925M Bryson, $0.889M Borgen, $0.864M Fitzgerald, $0.858M Laaksonen, $0.853M UPL, $0.778 Jonas Johansson, $0.7M Most info sourced from CapFriendly.

I don't even feel any sense of righteousness or pride from this. Just intense relief. Bliss, almost.

VGK trading Schmidt to FLA to make room for Pietrangelo.

Who's the first line right winger on this team? The fallacy of a player not in the top 10 at their position not being a 1st line player seemingly never dies. Is 22nd among players listed at RW not among the 30 highest point totals among players listed at RW? Or 62nd among the 90 highest point totals among forwards? Complain that Reinhart isn't Pastrnak, Kucherov, Kane, or Marner, but Reinhart is irrefutably a 1st line RW.

COL out on Hall.

@john wawrow you gotta press the front office on what roles they're expecting these players to play and what analytics they used to arrive at this being anything near ok. Jason Nightingale is one of only two things right now: 1) Tearing his hair out. 2) A genius operating on a plane well beyond our understanding. Because the only visible bright spot on Cody Eakin is his 50 games of playoff experience, and that's not analytical.

Jesus ***** christ. Remember when Hodgson was being paid 1C money to play 4W minutes and Phil Varone wasn't on th 4th line? Let's never post that again.

If we have any faith in management, gotta believe there's something noteworthy percolating behind closed doors. Something that improves this team.

Still time to get deals done. Arbitration empowers the player, though, in the event they don't get done. Doubt Reinhart, Olofsson, or Ullmark are going anywhere anytime soon.

Analytics on Toffoli's contributions are strong. The more I look, the better he gets. Would definitely recommend making competitive offers.

For the salary and term, we can find better players through trade and FA.

And the dark, unending, murky abyss that is down. There's always highly overpriced/over-termed contracts and unwise trades. Doing nothing, at the moment, is significantly better than doing significant self harm.

Will the Rochester Americans have the highest payroll in the AHL? Maybe. Sabres could sign a player up to $1.075M on a one way contract for 2020-21 and still get 100% cap relief upon assignment to Rochester (pending waivers). Burying contracts and the buried threshold:

https://www.eliteprospects.com/player/45525/brandon-davidson GOT 'EM Krueger connection strikes again:

That should be the first domino to fall for the LDs. Expect more soon/early tomorrow.

Krug and Vatanen were demonstrably fine at ES. Gustafsson was ok. The other UFA LDs are much, much worse (Ericsson, Kulikoz, Zadarov, Alzner, Forbort). Name another UFA LD that you'd let even sniff this roster. Vatenen should attract Brodie+ money. Brodie is somewhat underrated because points, but is measurably solid at both ends of the ice. 4 x $5M is about right for Brodie, as he was making $4.65M, and not way out of the park for his ability, factoring in the UFA premium. Vatenen's about the same age, contributes more in the offensive end, and was making $4.875M. Gustafsson will likely make less than Brodie unless he's grossly overpaid. He was making only $1.2M. He contributes a little less in both own-end and offensive zone (as of this past season), but had a career season in 2018-2019.

Sabres should be on the phone with Krug, Vatenen, and especially Erik Gustafsson. Gustafsson would be a great fit. All top-4 left-shot Ds. All point producers.

Some bits: Certainly has the wheels. Some older bits:

At least there's this, but it's not much.

Analytics show him being among the worst defenders in the league in GAR.

On a one way contract...?

Left shot but listed as an RD on CapFriendly. https://www.eliteprospects.com/player/18745/matt-irwin Also a potential plug. Played sheltered minutes in NSH/ANA and didn't make much impact.