IKnowPhysics

Don't hate on my blind loyalty. Sabres are going to win it all.

I have faith they can do it, but I'm worried they'll wait until Rochester gets going a few games before making any callups.

More numbers. Goals Saved Above Average per 60 looks at goalie performance compared to the average of all goalies. 16th ranked (ie, median of the top 31 goalies) is +0.63; this would be solid starting goaltending. Ullmark is 32nd at -0.02; he's effectively the definition of replacement goaltender. Hutton is 52nd at -0.81 Johansson is 59th at -1.52 If Johansson (-1.52) plays against the median starting goaltender (+0.63), the Sabres need to score (+0.63 - -1.52 = ) 2.15 more goals per game just to even up the goaltending deficit. This is a huge barrier to winning right now. We're 7th last in Goals Against, which is negating our being 9th best in Goals For, and we're simply not getting any help in net.

The top line not scoring is a problem, but this in no way means that Matt Irwin is not a problem. If the trivial solution is to bench Irwin, then let's see it. But don't think for a second Matt Irwin's negative contribution doesn't affect game outcomes. His high danger scoring chance differential was -7 (1 HDCF, 8 HDCA) in his 12 minutes today. This negates Hall/Eichel/Olofsson's +7 (12 HDCF, 5HDCA) in 21 minutes tonight. 12 minutes of Matt Irwin sucks the life out of 21 minutes of top line hockey. Understood, but it's simply not good enough. https://www.naturalstattrick.com/playerteams.php?fromseason=20202021&thruseason=20202021&stype=2&sit=5v5&score=all&stdoi=std&rate=y&team=BUF&pos=S&loc=B&toi=0&gpfilt=none&fd=&td=&tgp=410&lines=single&draftteam=ALL He's on the upper end of Hits Given/60 among Sabres defensemen (about the same as Ristolainen), yes, but he's the lowest on the team in Hits Taken/60 by far. Why? He's by far the worst defenseman on the team in Giveaways/60 and he has zero Takeaways. Opponents don't have to hit Matt Irwin to separate him from the puck. This does not punish teams nor does it make the Sabres "hard to play against."

And that issue's name? Matt Irwin. See thread.

Matt Irwin is bad at hockey. When he was signed as a UFA, we were warned he was going to be bad. Real bad. https://www.ontheforecheck.com/2019/8/30/20839903/2018-2019-nashville-predators-player-reviews-matt-irwin He was one of the 30 worst defenders in the NHL in Goals Above Replacement: And we believed the analysis. His stats were going to be bad. Many were stunned that we signed him to a one-way contract. We didn't know what Kevyn Adams or Ralph Krueger saw in this guy. We still don't. https://www.naturalstattrick.com/playerteams.php?fromseason=20202021&thruseason=20202021&stype=2&sit=5v5&score=all&stdoi=oi&rate=y&team=BUF&pos=S&loc=B&toi=0&gpfilt=none&fd=&td=&tgp=410&lines=single&draftteam=ALL Matt Irwin allows more shots per 60 minutes than any defender we have. He allows more High Danger Corsi Against per 60 minutes than any defender we have, a staggering 16.33 HDCA/60. Of all defenders that have played more than 30 minutes, this is 9th worst in the league. For reference, McCabe, Risto, Dahlin, Joker, Montour are all in the respectable 6.5-9 range; Miller is at 10.8. The stats say he's real bad. The eye test looks worse. Just in the 5-3 loss to NJ today, several goals were straight up his fault. Several exquisite NJ scoring chances were a result of him being out of position. He makes bad decisions on pinches and his legs can't bail him out of trouble. He gets beat hard. His accidental tripping penalty was a result of poor stick control (read: if he were more skilled, it wouldn't have happened). Watch this *****. The opening goal 20 seconds into the game was his terrible read. https://www.nhl.com/devils/video/mcleod-opens-scoring-on-breakaway/t-320765148/c-7383909 The go-ahead goal to make it 4-3 was a bad read leading to a worse pinch and terrible recovery in which he got close to being back in on the play, but then put himself out of position by diving for the puck. If he doesn't pinch, he covers the play. If he skates through until the end instead of diving, he takes away the rebound. https://www.nhl.com/devils/video/woods-buzzer-beater/t-277437418/c-7384622 These goals aren't good bounces or good redirections and screens by NJD with some element of luck. Matt Irwin's bad play is making players like McLeod and Wood look like All-Stars. I'm not surprised that Matt Irwin's stats said he was going to be bad and that his stats continue to be bad. I'm surprised that he looks so visibly and obviously bad in real time and he continues to get ice time. Right now, Ralph Krueger has the luxury of choosing to not call up Matt Irwin. But down the stretch, injuries will happen, and Matt Irwin will be relied on to be top-six, and it will continue to cost the Buffalo Sabres dearly. They cannot expect to ice Matt Irwin and win hockey games.

ThE TrIaL oF MaRiO LeMiEuX

https://www.tsn.ca/tsn-originals/video/tsn-original-the-unwanted-visitor~2128335

One weird detail I'm watching is that in each of the past two games, Cozens has not played past the 52 minute mark. When it was 3-2 Sabres, Okposo and Sheahan each took a turn doubling to cover Cozens' shifts. When it was tie game last night, Sheahan was double shifted twice to cover Cozens' shifts. No injuries that I know of; not sure what's up. Also, generally speaking, Krueger seems to keep lines together for the first half of the game, and then in the third period, he fires up the blender.

WOWY data shows that Olofsson is not as good as Skinner in 5v5 (probably not a surprise, but let's be objective). The real question we don't have enough data to answer yet is what's the better lineup in overall team performance: Olofsson with Stall and Skinner with Lazar OR Skinner with Staal and Olofsson with Lazar?

I think the best news out of this is: 22-7 in favor of the Rangers in shots from the slot (by far the Sabres' worst game) and we didn't lose both points.

SABRES BAD

https://www.naturalstattrick.com/game.php?season=20202021&game=20110&view=limited#hm CF% 41.67% HDCF% 30% Hall/Olofsson-Eichel-Reinhart accounted for all three HDCF. Woof.

He should either be on the top line or in the press box in Seattle!

Lulz. I say 2nd line... maybe.

Krueger jumbling lines. Olofsson-Eichel-Reinhart Hall-Staal-Sheahan Rider-Eakin-Okposo Skinner-Lazar-Sheahan

Ristolainen is doing an excellent job cleaning up the bouncey trash and bailing out Ullmark. Definitely a calming veteran presence out there on big kill.

Ullmark channeling Hasek tonight.

Tie game.

Great tip by Reinhart.

***** these dead zone hits.

Ullmark showing up.

The aded ice time is because Olofsson has been playing the power play. Total 5v5 minutes on the season between SKinner and Olofsson are within a single shift.

That's 100% on Matt Irwin collecting the rebound and giving it directly to Panarin on the tape with Ullmark out of position. Awful play by Irwin.