IKnowPhysics

I do not believe this to be true. I do not feel this way.

It's unfortunately excellent for the virus and bad for people. It seems to have everything to do with infected persons breathing very heavily while playing, creating lots of airborne droplets, and air ventilation systems generally designed to isolate the ice surface and keep it cold, suspending those droplets where other players breathe heavily. https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/12/04/hockey-covid-transmission-outbreaks/ The CDC recorded a single game during which one infected person was able to infect 14 of 22 players and one staff member: https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6941a4.htm It's actually pretty hard to find events and activities that are worse, transmission wise, than indoor ice hockey. It's one of the reasons that the playoffs last year was a miracle.

I'd tell the NHL to bring out the ***** stick of justice, but they're complicit.

***** you, New Jersey Devils. ***** you, NHL.

I was sort of thinking this too. But let's look. If you define PP1 to be whichever PP line has Eichel on it (vs Staal), then you can uses WOWY with Eichel/Staal to examine PP1 success. Eichel (no Staal) and Reinhart (no Ristolainen) - 29:07 - 10.3 GF/60 - 22.67 HDCF/60 - OnIceSH% 13.89 Eichel (no Staal) and RIstolainen (no Reinhart) - 4:31 - 26.57 GF/60 - 32.14 HDCF/60 - OnIceSH% 22.22 The sample sizes are small, but at face value, EIchel's PP1 line is measurably more productive with Risto on it than Sam with higher scoring rates, higher high danger Corsi for rates, and higher team shooting percentage. Is it enough to not put Reinhart back on the PP? Nah, but it's interesting.

To be honest, I'm not usually a hater, and if I am hating, I'm usually attributing failure to the GM for not getting the right personnel or to the coach for poor motivation, tactics, usage, or matchups. I got nothing against Matt Irwin the person. I'm not even mad that he had the stats he had previously and he was able to get paid to play in the NHL this season. My ire is that he was a known quantity in this league and we were the ones to give him ice time. It's a hard pill to swallow that we somehow didn't know better. And giving him ice time needs to stop.

Side note: Rutherford's contract was through 2021-22. Theoretically, the Penguins have the right to decline permission to other teams to talk to him until then. It'll be interesting to see if the Pens grant permission, as it was Rutherford who resigned and not the Pens who terminated him. That said, would the Pens look good jerking around a late-career HOF GM? No. On our end, I think when the Pegulas got started, they sought lots of advice from league advisors and it burned them. They became obsessed with trying capture elements of Pittsburgh's success and they're mad it got them no where for years. Craig Patrick, Dan Bylsma, Jason Botterill all had significant success there and failed miserably here. The rumors are that the Pegulas are tired of listening to "league experts" and they've started to trust their own instincts on organization and culture building to produce something more organic, similar to the success of Brandon Beane and Sean McDermott. But that all said, they would be the first to admit that someone with Rutherford's resume would likely find some ways to contribute. I don't think the Pegulas execute yet another re-org, fresh off a GM hire and one year removed from a coach hire, to put Rutherford in charge of the circus. And I don't think Jim Rutherford would be interested in merely being a "senior advisor," even if PIT granted permission.

Some of Ullmark's numbers last year weren't that bad. And Hutton had the eye thing. It's entirely possible that Kevyn Adams thought or was being told that Ullmark and Hutton would certainly improve. But we haven't seen that yet.

Good data point. Shift chart confirms this.

Don't hate on my blind loyalty. Sabres are going to win it all.

I have faith they can do it, but I'm worried they'll wait until Rochester gets going a few games before making any callups.

More numbers. Goals Saved Above Average per 60 looks at goalie performance compared to the average of all goalies. 16th ranked (ie, median of the top 31 goalies) is +0.63; this would be solid starting goaltending. Ullmark is 32nd at -0.02; he's effectively the definition of replacement goaltender. Hutton is 52nd at -0.81 Johansson is 59th at -1.52 If Johansson (-1.52) plays against the median starting goaltender (+0.63), the Sabres need to score (+0.63 - -1.52 = ) 2.15 more goals per game just to even up the goaltending deficit. This is a huge barrier to winning right now. We're 7th last in Goals Against, which is negating our being 9th best in Goals For, and we're simply not getting any help in net.

The top line not scoring is a problem, but this in no way means that Matt Irwin is not a problem. If the trivial solution is to bench Irwin, then let's see it. But don't think for a second Matt Irwin's negative contribution doesn't affect game outcomes. His high danger scoring chance differential was -7 (1 HDCF, 8 HDCA) in his 12 minutes today. This negates Hall/Eichel/Olofsson's +7 (12 HDCF, 5HDCA) in 21 minutes tonight. 12 minutes of Matt Irwin sucks the life out of 21 minutes of top line hockey. Understood, but it's simply not good enough. https://www.naturalstattrick.com/playerteams.php?fromseason=20202021&thruseason=20202021&stype=2&sit=5v5&score=all&stdoi=std&rate=y&team=BUF&pos=S&loc=B&toi=0&gpfilt=none&fd=&td=&tgp=410&lines=single&draftteam=ALL He's on the upper end of Hits Given/60 among Sabres defensemen (about the same as Ristolainen), yes, but he's the lowest on the team in Hits Taken/60 by far. Why? He's by far the worst defenseman on the team in Giveaways/60 and he has zero Takeaways. Opponents don't have to hit Matt Irwin to separate him from the puck. This does not punish teams nor does it make the Sabres "hard to play against."

And that issue's name? Matt Irwin. See thread.

Matt Irwin is bad at hockey. When he was signed as a UFA, we were warned he was going to be bad. Real bad. https://www.ontheforecheck.com/2019/8/30/20839903/2018-2019-nashville-predators-player-reviews-matt-irwin He was one of the 30 worst defenders in the NHL in Goals Above Replacement: And we believed the analysis. His stats were going to be bad. Many were stunned that we signed him to a one-way contract. We didn't know what Kevyn Adams or Ralph Krueger saw in this guy. We still don't. https://www.naturalstattrick.com/playerteams.php?fromseason=20202021&thruseason=20202021&stype=2&sit=5v5&score=all&stdoi=oi&rate=y&team=BUF&pos=S&loc=B&toi=0&gpfilt=none&fd=&td=&tgp=410&lines=single&draftteam=ALL Matt Irwin allows more shots per 60 minutes than any defender we have. He allows more High Danger Corsi Against per 60 minutes than any defender we have, a staggering 16.33 HDCA/60. Of all defenders that have played more than 30 minutes, this is 9th worst in the league. For reference, McCabe, Risto, Dahlin, Joker, Montour are all in the respectable 6.5-9 range; Miller is at 10.8. The stats say he's real bad. The eye test looks worse. Just in the 5-3 loss to NJ today, several goals were straight up his fault. Several exquisite NJ scoring chances were a result of him being out of position. He makes bad decisions on pinches and his legs can't bail him out of trouble. He gets beat hard. His accidental tripping penalty was a result of poor stick control (read: if he were more skilled, it wouldn't have happened). Watch this *****. The opening goal 20 seconds into the game was his terrible read. https://www.nhl.com/devils/video/mcleod-opens-scoring-on-breakaway/t-320765148/c-7383909 The go-ahead goal to make it 4-3 was a bad read leading to a worse pinch and terrible recovery in which he got close to being back in on the play, but then put himself out of position by diving for the puck. If he doesn't pinch, he covers the play. If he skates through until the end instead of diving, he takes away the rebound. https://www.nhl.com/devils/video/woods-buzzer-beater/t-277437418/c-7384622 These goals aren't good bounces or good redirections and screens by NJD with some element of luck. Matt Irwin's bad play is making players like McLeod and Wood look like All-Stars. I'm not surprised that Matt Irwin's stats said he was going to be bad and that his stats continue to be bad. I'm surprised that he looks so visibly and obviously bad in real time and he continues to get ice time. Right now, Ralph Krueger has the luxury of choosing to not call up Matt Irwin. But down the stretch, injuries will happen, and Matt Irwin will be relied on to be top-six, and it will continue to cost the Buffalo Sabres dearly. They cannot expect to ice Matt Irwin and win hockey games.

ThE TrIaL oF MaRiO LeMiEuX

https://www.tsn.ca/tsn-originals/video/tsn-original-the-unwanted-visitor~2128335

One weird detail I'm watching is that in each of the past two games, Cozens has not played past the 52 minute mark. When it was 3-2 Sabres, Okposo and Sheahan each took a turn doubling to cover Cozens' shifts. When it was tie game last night, Sheahan was double shifted twice to cover Cozens' shifts. No injuries that I know of; not sure what's up. Also, generally speaking, Krueger seems to keep lines together for the first half of the game, and then in the third period, he fires up the blender.

WOWY data shows that Olofsson is not as good as Skinner in 5v5 (probably not a surprise, but let's be objective). The real question we don't have enough data to answer yet is what's the better lineup in overall team performance: Olofsson with Stall and Skinner with Lazar OR Skinner with Staal and Olofsson with Lazar?

I think the best news out of this is: 22-7 in favor of the Rangers in shots from the slot (by far the Sabres' worst game) and we didn't lose both points.

SABRES BAD

https://www.naturalstattrick.com/game.php?season=20202021&game=20110&view=limited#hm CF% 41.67% HDCF% 30% Hall/Olofsson-Eichel-Reinhart accounted for all three HDCF. Woof.