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IKnowPhysics

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Everything posted by IKnowPhysics

  1. After being mistaken for other newcomer Borgen and still working on fluency.
  2. I think any undeserved hype he receives is a product of being the only decent long term goalie prospect who was taken earlier in the draft than any Sabres G since Noronen in '99, which is not his fault. If Ullmark leaves or UPL doesn't pan out, we'll go through the same thing with Portillo, who's shaping up well in B1G. Side note: we should consider signing Strauss Mann to a two-way contract. Agreed. Ullmark was drafted in 2012, nine years ago, when Ryan Miller was still starting, and he's just now getting his NHL game to a high level of performance and consistency. UPL was drafted in 2017.
  3. Lots of reasons to put UPL in as short term backup. He's earned the meager backup role. Not putting him in with so many injuries on the roster would show a lack of confidence in him that he doesn't deserve. Give him a taste of working with the NHL coaches and players in practice. Give him a taste of playing in NHL games. Expose him to the level of work ethic that it'll take to succeed at the NHL level. Success or failure, he and the coaches will be able to identify areas of improvement in his game to continue to work on. Give him a an opportunity to impress coaches and fans, even if chances aren't exactly favorable. Achievement is ability multiplied by opportunity. He's not going to get shell shocked to the point of career ruination from a couple of games. Better now than when the team was struggling under Krueger or during the winless streak.
  4. Same as Nylander's AAV with identical 0.74P/GP over the last three seasons, plus a bump for cap growth and not making what Nylander made this season, then plus or minus some margin: $7M +/- $0.3M at 7-8 years, NMC after three years.
  5. Dis never miss, but dat always scat.
  6. It's always dat. Always.
  7. If my Civil War maps, googling, and math are right, that leaves only CHI, MN, COL, and SEA untouched. COL's Ball Arena is north of the hypothetical line by about 2.21 miles.
  8. Simply put, every team in the Eastern Standard Time zone can ***** off: MON, OTT, TOR, BOS, DET, NYR, NYI, NJD, PIT, CBJ, WSH, CAR, TBL, FLA. Honorable mentions: EDM, PHX, ANA.
  9. When you're a born competitor and you've strived to win something your entire life but have yet to do so, it's probably crushing to lay it down.
  10. Non-fancy stats, as of 4/14: Team Records: Ralph: 6-18-4, 0.286 P% 2.07 GF/GP (31st), 3.39 GA/GP (28th) 28.1 SF/GP (27th), 30.8 SA/GP (19th) Not Ralph: 4-7-3, 0.393 P% 2.79 GF/GP (16th), 3.50 GA/GP (30th) 26.9 SF/GP (27th), 36.4 SA/GP (31st) Goalie Records: Ullmark, regardless of Ralph: 9-6-3, 0.583 P%, 0.917 SV%, 2.63 GAA Not Ullmark, regardless of Ralph: 1-19-4, 0.125 P%, 0.890 SV%, 3.57 GAA Goalie Stats: Under Ralph: Linus 5-4-2, 0.919 SV%, 2.44 GAA Hutton 1-9-1, 0.884 SV%, 3.43 GAA Johansson 0-5-1, 0.884 SV%, 3.79 GAA Under Not Ralph: Linus 4-2-1, 0.915 SV%, 2.95 GAA Tokarski 0-4-2, 0.905 SV% 3.54 GAA Hutton 0-1-0, 0.897 SV%, 3.82 GAA Player Stats: Under Ralph: Under Not Ralph: "Core" Players P/GP (Under Ralph / Under Not Ralph): Eichel 0.86 / INJ Reinhart 0.73 / 0.50 Cozens 0.25 / 0.43 Dahlin 0.39 / 0.50 Ristolainen 0.38 / 0.36 Movers: ++ Okposo 0.17 / 0.82 ++ Asplund 0.20 / 0.56 ++ Skinner 0.12 / 0.43 ++ Thompson 0.15 / 0.45 ++ Montour 0.28 / 0.57 ++ Bryson 0.09 / 0.38 -- Olofsson 0.68 / 0.36 -- Hall 0.57 / 0.33 -- Staal 0.36 / 0.00 (4GP) -- Rieder 0.20 / 0.11 The skinny, examining only the numbers: This team simply will not win with any goalie we have not named Ullmark. The disparity between Ullmark and others trumps the differences from the coaching change. The coaching changes moved us toward scoring more goals (+0.72 GF/GP!), yes, but we also allow more shots (+5.8 SA/GP) and goals (+0.11 GA/GP)- if we're not backstopped by Ullmark, this will kill us on average almost no matter how many more goals are scored on average. Not-Ullmark has a season 3.57 GAA and only three teams in the NHL score more GF/GP than that GAA (COL, NYR, PIT). Our 2.79GF/GP under Not Ralph is tenable with Ulmmark's 2.95 GAA under Not Ralph- we might end up winning a couple games, but it's still not looking great. With Tokarski's 3.54 GAA under Not Ralph, this is much worse. By the improved GF/GP-to-GA/GP ratio, the Sabres are clearly a better team under Granato than Ralph. But we still don't stand much of a chance if we don't play Ullmark 100% of the time. Which is bad, because, as of tonight, he has a LBI. If Ullmark's out, and we keep our scoring pace but can't win a game, you'll already know why. Wins aside (typical groan) : Several players are producing more, likely due to changes in systems brought by the coaching change. For instance, Okposo might be the most-improved player in the NHL in the past 15 games. Skinner is predictably up. Cozens is relishing a bigger role. Thompson is productive 5-on-5. Dahlin's now allowed to razzle your dazzle, so he's up a bit. A couple players are producing less, perhaps in changed usage or in Eichel's absence. For instance, Sam's point production is a little down as he's not on Jack's hip. Olofsson's powerplay production was steady at 4.05 PPG/60 under Ralph but he hasn't scored a PPG under Not Ralph. FWIW, Hall and Staal fell off cliffs before their departure. It's good to see the future improving with Cozens, Dahlin, Thompson, Asplund, Bryson, Jokiharju, and Skinner improving, but with the defense so, so porous and non-Ulmmark goalie straight stinking, it's hard to be encouraged.
  11. I gotta think that we're waiting for a team to make a move, possibly a trade with a 3rd team, to clear cap space to land Hall. Should be decent return if a team's willing to go through that hassle.
  12. The other night, they went with seven defensemen and only eleven forwards. Do they put Artuu D too?
  13. ***** referee #49 Reid Anderson for causing the turnover on the reverse that led to NJ's 5th goal when it was 4-3 with 1:43 to go. He'd been reffing from the far side all period before making no effort to get out of the way of that reverse, which caused the turnover and immediately setup NJ for the quick goal. Referees are trained to get out of the way of the puck on plays like that and, when he kicked Sheahan's reverse pass straight to the NJ forward, he told Sheahan, which you can hear on the ice-level mics, "I'm *****in' standin' right here, where do you want me to go?" Effectively bad puck luck for the Sabres, but ***** him anyways.
  14. Only the Sabres (3-0-2) and Leafs (5-0-0) are unbeaten in regulation in their last five games.
  15. There are many reasons why we were so, so bad and many reasons we're improving now. Goaltending is one of those many reasons, but it is not the only reason.
  16. Reminds me of a late 2003-04 season, but worse. Sabres were 12-18-2-1, then pulled to 28-26-6-1, faltered a little bit, then went on a 10-4-1-3 tear to finish 37-34-7-4, one spot out of the playoffs. That season was transformative for the organization and gave us momentum to launch into the rule-change-era with high confidence. This season's lows were much lower and the adversity was much tougher. Whichever players survive this year's mess into a Blue ang Gold sweater next season will surely be battle-hardened. We won't get the benefit of a rule change, but we will get the benefit of a coaching change and there's little doubt that we will be a better team and organization for the struggle.
  17. Gary Bettman will make sure Don Granato gets infected with COVID if it's the last thing he ever does.
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