That Aud Smell

Sabres are bad at the hockey. Never was his style.

^ Hear, hear

I should say. I'd reckon a 4th rounder is a more likely value. But maybe the trade is made conditional on what Taylor does for the acquiring team, with a ceiling of a 2nd and a floor of a 4th.

Ah, gotcha. My point was that, after coming off the bench to lead his team to the national championship (not unlike Tua did), Cardale was not named the starter for the following season, and that, even though Cardale was eventually named the starter days before the opener, he did not hang onto the job for the entire season (he was benched in favor of Barrett). So maybe Hurts looks at that scenario and sees that he still has a shot with Bama. Or maybe not.

fwiw - from his wikipedia page: After entering the 2014 season as a redshirt sophomore, third on the Buckeyes' depth chart, Jones made his first start of his college career in the Big Ten Championship Game in place of J. T. Barrett, who had been injured the prior week versus Michigan. Jones led the #6 (AP) ranked Buckeyes squad to a 59–0 victory over the #11 ranked Wisconsin Badgers, on the eve of the NCAA football committee's inaugural playoff selection.[21] Jones was named MVP of the game. Cardale Jones made the second start of his college career, and the Ohio State Buckeyes defeated #1 ranked Alabama Crimson Tide 42–35 in the Allstate Sugar Bowl to advance to the College Football Playoff National Championship against the Oregon Ducks. In the championship game, he excelled once again and led the Buckeyes to a 42–20 victory over the Ducks. Jones recorded 280 all-purpose yards, scoring two touchdowns. He completed 16 of 23 attempted passes for 242 yards, with one touchdown and one interception and ran for another 38 yards and a touchdown.[22] The day after winning the National Championship, Jones discussed his future football career. In a news conference, Jones said that while he did not officially rule out declaring for the 2015 NFL Draft, he believes that he is "not ready for that level yet," partly because he has only started in 3 college football games.[23] Jones confirmed on January 15, 2015 that he would not declare for the 2015 NFL Draft, and would stay with Ohio State for at least another year, most probably until he graduated.[24] 2015 season[edit]After a competition with Barrett that lasted the entire offseason, Jones was named the Buckeyes' starting quarterback immediately before gametime in Ohio State's season opener at Virginia Tech. Both he and Barrett remained listed as co-starters on the depth chart headed into September 12 meeting with Hawaii.[25][26] He set career highs in passing yards and completions and passing yards against Maryland on September 10, 2015 with 21 completions, 291 passing yards, and two passing touchdowns.[20] After starting the first seven games of the season, he was benched in favor of Barrett.[27] After Ohio State's final home game, he announced his intention to enter the 2016 NFL Draft.[28]

I'd dispute the conclusion that Smith ~ Rivers. The latter has thrown for about 20,000 more yards and 150+ more TDs than the former. As for Mariota, I know that his inclusion is shaky. I think that bomb-ass block he threw at the end of the Chiefs game tipped it for me. I will readily admit that my criteria were undefined and vague. Fair on Mariota. I do think he gets it sorted out and becomes a good NFL starter. Jameis? I'm not sure what's going on with that guy, man.

I'd say NFW Cousins can be had for a fair price or (amortized) term. I love the idea of two QBs at the lower half of the 1st round, but the team also has many holes to fill. Meh. I'd say nay.

Just for discussion's sake, I'll define the first twelve overall picks as top of the 1st round (which I think is fair for the QB position). Below are the QBs picked within the range since 1990. I've bolded the ones that would likely be considered true "hits" -- and that includes 2 guys who are still just getting started (Goff and Wentz), one guy who's had some struggles early (Mariota), and another guy who flamed out spectacularly but did enough to be really good for a time (Vick). It is not quite a 50-50 proposition. Closer to 1-in-3. 1. Peyton Manning Eli Manning Drew Bledsoe Carson Palmer Alex Smith Jeff George Michael Vick Matthew Stafford Cam Newton David Carr Sam Bradford Andrew Luck Tim Couch Jameis Winston JaMarcus Russell Jared Goff 2. Donovan McNabb Rick Mirer Robert Griffin Marcus Mariota Carson Wentz Ryan Leaf 3. Steve McNair Matt Ryan Joey Harrington Vince Young Blake Bortles Heath Shuler Akili Smith 4. Philip Rivers 5. Kerry Collins Mark Sanchez 6. Trent Dilfer David Klingler 7. Byron Leftwich Andre Ware 8. Ryan Tannehill Jake Locker 10. (None at 9.) Blaine Gabbert Matt Leinart 11. Ben Roethlisberger Jay Cutler Daunte Culpepper 12. Christian Ponder Cade McNown +++ Another thought: Holy moley, once you get outside the top-4.

Didn't Cardale do something similar for Ohio State? And then he didn't even start the next season? (Maybe Cardale played because of an injury, though.) I went to bed around half-time. The Oklahoma-Georgia game was glorious. Last night's game, or first half anyway, was a reminder of how tedious college foobaw can be.

There is something to this. OTOH, I genuinely hope that the Bills FO is not prioritizing that consideration (a'tall) when making decisions. I think that's right. I know zilch about any of the prospects, of course, other than to know that there are many names out there. Take your shot, I say. But don't trade up and expend capital. That's especially so because I envision the team parting with a pick or picks to get Alex Smith.

my recency bias says "no." this is fair. i guess i wish smith would come cheaper than a 2nd. maybe he would/will. if tyrod stays, then something's gotta change with the O. does dennison go? that too seems counter-productive. but maybe not as counter-productive as having a QB who's such an ill fit for the passing scheme.

I'd like to think so. The $5M more is not a huge deal, I don't think. The 2nd round pick hurts, sure, but it's a good use of an asset for an improvement in the team's bridge QB. I've posited that Taylor is firmly entrenched among the bottom third of the league's starters (and he may not even start for a team next season). My sense is that Smith is firmly entrenched among the middle third of the league's starters. And he's a fit for the west coast timing O that Dennison runs (assuming there's no change made there).

It's mission critical that the team not overpay for Cousins.

The more I think about it, the more I think that the best case scenario is for the Bills to acquire Smith from the Chiefs for something other than a 1st rounder (there'd be some symmetry there, in that they can get back (some of? more than?) what they gave up for Mahomes), and then draft a QB (or two (maybe even one in 2018 and one in 2019?)). I've read people here saying that Smith is no better than Taylor. I disagree with that. He's somewhat better, and far from great. But Smith would be an ideal bridge quarterback until the team's next QB of the future is ready to go.

I was imprecise, I think. I don't mean to suggest that it's a crapshoot, as in, you may as well try to get your Brady in round 6 rather than get your Peyton Manning at #1 overall. I am sure that the overwhelming majority of good (or better) starting QBs are taken in round 1 or 2. What I mean is that, within those first two rounds, the matter of getting the right guy seems fairly random (and even a bit unlikely). Peyton Manning, Luck, and Cam Newton went first overall. But so did Alex Smith, Tim Couch, Jeff George, Jamarcus Russell, and David Carr. Donovan McNabb and Carson Wentz went 2nd overall. But so did Rick Mirer and Ryan Leaf. Matt Ryan went third overall, but then again so did a thing called Joey Harrington, as well as chumps like Vince Young, Blake Bortles, Heath Shuler, and Akili Smith. You say Philip Rivers? I say Jake Locker. You say Ben Roethlisberger? I say Blaine Gabbert. Like I said, it seems pretty random. I am sure that there are some scouts who are better at it than others. But I think I'd rather be lucky than good when it comes to getting the next great signal caller.

Yeah - I'm just gonna disagree. His arm strength looks below average to me insofar as NFL QBs go. That's damning with faint praise. Taylor has shown the ability to throw a good long ball (although less and less so of late), but he does not have much of an arm. Can Taylor scorch a ball into a small window? Hell no. I lost track. Who said Taylor has a cannon for an arm? Puh-leez. He can put some air under a nice spiral. Doesn't mean he has a cannon. Hmmm. I dunno, man. The fact that highly experienced, highly trained people spend 1000s of hours trying to hit on these QBs, and fail far more often than they succeed, suggests to me that the task is a difficult one, not, as you seem to posit, that there are dozens, even hundreds of stupid, cowardly people doing the work. The scouts do cling to the things that can be readily quantified. I think that's because the other stuff -- so much of it mental (like, will a prospect learn to identify a cover 4 and, within seconds, understand that his outside receiver will be singled with the weaker of the opponent's two corners?) -- is so difficult to quantify and predict. Ah, there it is. Tyrod does not have a cannon. He probably has low-average NFL arm strength. He also lacks touch, as you say. And accuracy. Taylor is firmly nestled in the bottom third of the league's starting QBs. He's capable of making spectacular plays; persistently incapable of making routine ones.

Meh. I'm convinced it's mostly a crapshoot anyway. Wait - what? i can't recall any of his throws against San Diego (and thank God for that), but his INT yesterday appeared to take roughly 3 minutes to reach the intended receiver. Someone here said it: His arm strength is like post-surgery Chad Pennington.

That'd be my plan. Ideally, they'd fine an OC better than Dennison. But if they were to bring in Smith, a vanilla west coast scheme might get you another 9 wins?

I really don’t want the Bills to overpay Cousins. If Smith were to be the team’s QB next year, it’d be an incremental improvement over Taylor — but not insubstantial. Especially in this west coast system. I think the Bills likely beat the Jags with Smith at QB in yesterday’s game. Romo seemed to give the brutal truth about Tyrod on several replays yesterday. Taylor just doesn’t see the field in a reliable manner. Final thought: Very unlikely that Shady catches lightning in a bottle next season (age 30). The offence could somehow get worse?

Haha - that kid sounds to be my age. Hell, we’re all kids right now. Go Bills.

[Oprah voice]: YOU get a QB! And YOU get a QB!

Lol Mark Davis. The Pardon My Take show dropped a joke in which it was posited that Davis wants to hire Gruden because, when Davis looks in the mirror, he (Davis) thinks he looks like Gruden; that Davis has fantasies of living out some sort of buddy-movie with Gruden in which they occasionally wear matching outfits and confound other people in the organization who cannot tell them apart. And, really. It's a funny joke. It's also plausible.

I think the importance of the position has a tendency to boost a prospect's position on a draft board.

I recall that being reported -- that the 2nd they got from SF was less than the 1st the Browns offered. I do think there's a very good chance that the owner intervened on some level and said, in effect, the better football decision may be to move on from Brady, but the better business decision is probably to stick with him. OTOH, it's been consistently reported that Belichick holds grudges like no other. That would include having one against the Browns. Additionally, it's been reported in connection with Garappolo that he really wanted to see him succeed elsewhere (if it could not be in NE) because that would reflect well on Belichick and his legacy. In that regard, it would make sense that he'd say "no" to the Browns tire fire and instead entrust his prized prospect to a person he trusts (Shanahan in SF, IIRC). I think it's strong to call it a hatchet job (which is what all my Pats fan friends are calling it), but I think it has the whiff of being a bit overdone.

If you have not seen the video re this quote, please go see it. Linked upthread (to a Twitter post).