EM88

Using those metrics 5 on 5 individually, from naturalstatrick.come up to today's date, the Sabres centers: Tage Thompson: +10 Ryan McLeod: +9 Dylan Cozens: -11 Peyton Krebs: -1 These are overall numbers, not adjusted per 60 as they did in the article. Just raw numbers.

They do not have 2 players like Quinn and Cozens that have literally sunk the team by themselves. It is amazing to me how the current Sabres are a different, and much better team when those 2 are not on the ice compared to when they are. Buffalo more often than not outplays, and for sure outscores opponents when it is the other 21 players and not those 2 on the ice this year.

I do not think they have easier games upcoming. Montreal has faded a bit, but they have a lot of games with a lot of tough teams coming up right after that.

Ryan McLeod is one of the best defensive centers in the league. In his 2 previous years with Edmonton, he often got checking assignments and when he was on the ice the team allowed an even strength goal once every 29 minutes. When he wasn't on the ice it was a goal every 23.8 minutes. That is a massive difference. This year with Buffalo when he is on the ice even strength the team allows a goal ever 24.1 minutes. When he is not out there it is a goal about every 22 minutes. They also allow less high danger chances against and less overall shots against when he is on the ice. With Buffalo he is also doing that without the benefit of playing with Rasmus Dahlin, who makes just about everyone's numbers look better. The majority of the ice time McLeod gets is with the bottom 4 D-men. For the last 3 years of his career, with 2 different teams and coaches, and several different linemates, 2 different systems, more often than not he is out there in a defensive role against other teams scoring lines, he has proven his team allows less goals and scoring chances when he is out there. When we watch games he appears to be rarely out of position. He appears by most mearues to honestly be an excellent defensive center. Even if he does revert to his career shooting percentage, which is about 14%, and he only gives you about 100 shots in a full season, that means he reverts to a mid-teens goal scorer. Give me the opportunity to sign a 25 year old center who is very good, if not great defensively, who will score me in the teens in goals, and is one of the fastest skaters in the league and I'll take it. If the asking price is $6 million dollars per year, where do I sign up?

I am starting to like some of the analytics sites the more I play with them. I wanted to see who was best with and without Cozens, but not just this season. His numbers and his analytics this season are bad, but what about going back and including the last 3 seasons combined, including his 31 goal season? A lot of posters say they want him to get back to playing like he did 2 years ago so these number are including that season, for those who played with him then. In that time period in even strength play goal differential playing with Cozens vs playing with anyone else besides Cozens from naturalstattrick.com: Alex Tuch with Cozens -4 goal differential, without Cozens +40 Jack Quinn with Cozens -15 goal differential, without Cozens -2 Jason Zucker with Cozens -8, without Cozens +13 Jiri Kulich with Cozens even, without Cozens +2 JJ Peterak with Cozens -20, without Cozens +22 Jordan Greenway with Cozens even, without Cozens +4 Peyton Krebs with Cozens -4, without Cozens even. Tage Thompson with Cozens -16, without Cozens +38. Zack Benson with Cozens -2, without Cozens +2 As far as D-men: Dahlin with Cozens -2, without Cozens +29 Byram with Cozens -5, without Cozens +15 Owen Power with Cozens -9, without Cozens +17 Samuelsson with Cozens even, without Cozens +15 Even Jeff Skinner with Cozens -2, without Cozens +25 Every player of consequence on this team that has played with Cozens, not just this year but anytime they have played with him even though his career year of 2 years ago, has been worse, sometimes considerably, when sharing the ice with him. If those numbers held, this would probably be a playoff team at least 2 of the last 3 years if you could remove the time Cozens was on the ice. I found these using the line tool under the player column on the side and then looked at total goals for vs goals allowed in each player comparing to Cozens even strength.

1.) I think he is an aggressive skater who is willing to forcheck hard and go into the corners and fight for the puck. 2.) I also think he has a quality that Quinn has lost. Cozens is willing to carry the puck into traffic, at risk of taking a hit to get the puck in front of the opposing net. Those 2 qualities might make him a good Winger. He could be "Tuch lite". However those do not make up for his negative qualities especially at center: 1.) He is a below average shooter. 2.) he has no situational awareness 3.) he cannot maintain his position defensively. Opposing teams can run a high school level play to lure him out of his zone and open up scoring chances against the Sabres. 4.) He does make his linemates better. Most of the time he makes them worse. Players numbers and metrics go up when they leave his line, and get worse when they join him. 5.) He hurts the team. Over the course of the year, through simple observation, or looking at basic numbers, or looking at advanced numbers, the team is worse when he is on the ice than it is when he is sitting on the bench in almost all situations. 6.) When Thompson got hurt and had to move to wing because he could not take draws, Cozens was moved up to the 1st line with Thompson and Zucker against Seattle. That first line was a combined -12 for the game. For the year Tuch and Zucker, taking out that game, are a combined +18 on the year. But in that one single game saddled with Cozens, the line was that -12. That line stuck together the next game, and while the Sabres won, that line was 30 points below even on Corsi%, 32 points below even on Fenwick%, they were outshot 7 to 1 even strength. They were split up part way through the game and have not been together since.

It is not all on Luukonen for sure. So I agree with you that it is not a UPL problem. But to say his decline in play from last year is not a contributing factor is deflecting. The team does not have a Luukonen problem, but his decline in play was an issue in the earlier part of the season. His play has been worse this year. He has allowed many questionable goals, especially earlier in the year, where there was not a total breakdown in front of him. For sure more than last year. On the list of problems this team has had, he is not at the top of the list, or even near the top. But he is still on that list when you compare his play this year to last year.

The thing is he is not really playing that much differently overall than 2 years ago. As others have posted in the past, that year 2 seasons ago he made a lot of questionable plays without the puck. The Sabres allowed a ton of goals when he was on the ice. Most players he played with had better analytics, much better defensive analytics, when they played without him compared to with him. The only difference is he had one year, one single year where his shooting percentage was higher. Even then, his shooting percentage and goals were focused on a 1.5-2 month period. Even with his 31 goals, the team still allowed more goals with him on the ice than it scored with him on the ice. He has always been a bad player without the puck and he always has been a player that does not make his linemates better. There has been no growth in that part of his game, at this point I wonder if growth in that part of his game is even possible anymore. Many of us just held on to that 31 goal total from 2 years ago, and all signs are that was an anomaly, a career shooting year for him. He does seem to better in a 'react' mode rather than a 'thinking' mode. Most think his 31 goal season was a year where Granato had a run-and-gun system. He does well in international tournaments where teams are slapped together and have days, not months to pay together so it is more of a reaction game than a system game. Put him in a 'pond hockey' game where everyone is playing that style and he is fine. Ask him to play discipline hockey in a very structured system, and you are better off thowing a random journeyman out there. The problem is, if he really cannot play well in a structured system, that would likely mean he would play even worse if the Sabres ever made the playoffs and he had to play center within a super tight, discipline system.

I will stop bringing up complaints about Dylan Cozens when he starts playing a consistently better game for a few weeks at a time. Until then he, along with any other player, is fair game to criticize. No gatekeeping to protect players we may like individually from me.

Do you even read and try to understand my point? Or or you just so eager for an argument. I have never referenced or said they can take a team of 'jamokes' into a contender. Maybe I need to spell this out for you, I would think through context you could get it: An average team, a 'middle of the road team', a team that struggles to be in the playoffs. Most of the teams in the Bills drought. An elite level QB will take that team and turn them into a contender. My point is there are poorly run organizations, and then there is everyone else. Buffalo is in the everything else category. To me there isn't much of a difference between the 5th best run organiztion and the 25th. The reason the Bills are in that "they are run OK" category but win a lot of games is that it is the elite level QB that gets them there. The Bills are not an elite level run organization. If they did everything else elite, then with Josh Allen they would be in the superbowl already. They are OK. Maybe good. but not elite. If you disagree with that fine. But do not mis-characterize my point by throwing in the 'bunch of jamokes' comment when I never even hinted at anything close to that.

What was his goal there? What did he think he was going to accomplish surrounded by a bunch of other players, putting the puck between his legs in his own zone. Seriously, what was he thinking? A highlight reel of the dozen-or-so plays by Cozens each year should be made. If he does get traded, and the fanbase of the team he is traded to thinks they got over the on the Sabres by getting Cozens in deal, that highlight reel should be sent to their message board.

The bills are 'well' run. Well. They are not an elite level run organization top to bottom. I never stated they were poorly run. If you were to look back at my first couple comments on this, I think you will see my intention is to say that they are not an elite-level run organization. My whole point is they are 'good enough' to get to the playoffs but not run as well as other teams. That was said in response to various other posts on this forum, and in the public, saying they are run near an 'elite' level organizationaly.

The point of my entire post isn't that a great QB isn't enough, it is that without a great QB most teams will drop off considerably. I never debated nor disagreed with a great QB not being enough. There is also a difference between a QB playing 'great' vs 'elite'. Most elite level QB's, like Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, those elite level guys are enough to make a team a consistent contender with just about any roster.

100% agree. Going into this season I put a lot of the Sabres woes on the Defensemen. Some of the posts like the above helped me to see things differently when I watch replays. Often times it looks like our D-men are woefully out of position or do not make plays they should. However as pointed out by many of you, they get very little help from the forwards. Worse yet, the D-men are out of position because our Forwards like Cozens and Quinn and Krebs and Peterka are late getting back or are so out of position, that our D-men have to play things half-way and cover for the negligent forward play. The Defense on this team certainly is not elite. But they are much better than many give credit to. I do believe Krebs has improved from my list of above. But the other three, Cozens and Quinn mostly and sometimes Peterka: If they were replaced with forwards that were just average in terms of defensive coverage, our defense unit would look downright above-average.

What is the list of examples you speak of? Where a great team lost their great QB and then wasn't considerably worse?

Everywhere I look shows their numbers are not solid at all, but awful. This year when they play together, 5 on 5, their Corsi percentage, comparing corsi for vs corsi against (a number better than 50 is positive) and those 2 together are at 46.4. The rest of the team without either of them on the ice is 50.48. When I look up Fenwick percentage, I see them at 44.4. The rest of the team without them is 50.48. I personally consider Goals for percentage the single most telling of the advanced analytics. Cozens and Quinn together are at 39.13, just awful. The rest of the team when neither of them is on the ice actually have good numbers, playoff-level team numbers at 54.73. Expected goal percentage the 2 of them together are at 41.95. The rest of the team without either of them on the ice is at 48.46. High danger chances, high danger goals, the list goes on and on, they drag the entire team down considerably. The Sabres are a much better team in almost every analytical category, harder to play against, overall out-play their opponents, and they are actually a positive team in terms of goal differential when those 2 are not on the ice.

If that did happen, that is the biggest indictment of anyone associated with this team, and in my personal opinion why this lack of success all falls at the feet of Pegula. The blanket cries to fire Adams as GM mean nothing if the above is true and Pegula does not change his mind about it. Better to keep Adams and everyone else until things get so bad that Pegula changes his mind on it.

I was thinking of writing a response to this, central to what could have been different if they did name O'Reilly captain, but as I sat down to type it out, it just became too depressing.

I would disagree with your last statement. There are many examples, and few exceptions, of an elite QB making a team good-to-great every year, and when they are no longer there, the team quickly fades.

I guess I must learn my lesson to not bring up anything bad about the Buffalo Bills here. Let me repeat, I am not saying they are bad as the Sabres. What I am saying is I have read alot of talk about how they are a super-well run organization that does almost everything correctly. My point, as a somewhat outsider to football, is can they really be run that well when they have what many consider a top 5 player in the league and they have not even made a superbowl yet? In no way am I saying they should not be fun to watch for those who enjoy their games. I am not saying they are a bad team. I am simply saying that they have had quite a few years with Josh Allen giving them elite-level play, and as an organization have not been good enough to make the proper moves around him to reach a title game. That is it.

I am not saying they are poorly run. Just not quite at the top of the list as many people think. As I said, even with Josh Allen, not even one Superbowl appearance yet. The reason I brought it up is many think the Bills are an elite organization. I do not think so. They are a good organization, with a great QB ,Much better than the Sabres, yes. but not good enough yet.

In business, there is often a fine line between thinking the fans are your customers that you are providing a product/service for them, or thinking the fans are they to support your product and your vision. When a team is failing like the Sabres, Terry Pegula seems to run the franchise more as if this is his product, his toy to play with, and the fans are just the ones that fill up the seats and pay money to support his project.

Agree on the Bandits. With the Bills, one can take a different side of the argument than what is popular. Maybe, just maybe they are less of a success story than we think. How many times has a team had a Quarterback as good as Josh Allen has been and has yet to reach the superbowl let alone win one? I personally put him in a category that has 95% of Quarterbacks with his talent already at least making a superbowl appearance by this point of his career. Yes, Patrick Mahomes is in his way. But Brady did not stop Roethlisberger or Manning from reaching, and winning the Superbowl. If you were to make up a list of the greatest Quarterbacks of the past 25 years, Allen and Lamar Jackson are probably the only 2 that have not even made a Superbowl, let alone winning one. That might say something more about the organization around them. Remove the starting QB, and I think Kanas City, Philadelphia, San Francisco, the Rams, Pittsburgh, and recently the Vikings and Lions are better teams, and probably have been or are currently better run organiztions top to bottom.

I agree. The truth to me is that Jack Eichel is a better player overall in Vegas than he was in Buffalo. Some of the reason for that may be coaching, it may be the position he was put in. Most of it is that he had a little growing up to do, like many young players. The organization and fan base lifted him up as a chosen one, so he did not have as much incentive on his own to do that growing up. I put that a little on him, a tad bit on the coaching, but mostly in the entire organization at a management level.

Dylan Cozens effect. He almost single-handedly negates the positive analytics of many of the players. In many analytical categories, put a player with Dylan Cozens and they are a lot worse. Most players are positive players, meaning they are on the ice for more goals scored than goals against, except for Dylan Cozens and Jack Quinn. Even last year and the year before, he has a negative impact on many more players than the has a positive impact. It is not just even strength either. Someone else, I think mjd1001, posted an interesting fact and I went back and verified it. In the games before he got hurt against Philadelphia last year, Dylan Cozens was on every single powerplay and the Sabres went multiple games without a power play goal. He got hurt, missed a couple games and the Sabres scored a Powerplay goal in every game he missed. He came back and the next few games he was back on every single powerplay and they failed to score in any of those next 3-4 games. He is a boat anchor that drags the entire team down. He needs to immediately and drastically change his play or he needs to go.