RochesterExpat

So I watched most of the game (although Buffalo had my attention on the split screen) and my thoughts were: Logan Thompson saved that game from being a blow out. At the same time, Vegas' shooting is abysmal with Smith straight up missing a wide open net and a hilariously bad penalty shot in overtime. It's like the whole Vegas squad is snake bit. They didn't play like a 2-8 team. Then I read the stat line that Varlamov stopped 44 of 45 and couldn't believe he faced that many shots because it didn't sync with my eye test. Did a quick look at Vegas' shooting heat map for the season. Compared to 21-22, 20-21, and 19-20. I'm guessing those 45 shots on Varlamov were from such weak areas of the ice it didn't register as heavy shot volume in my mind. Or it's personal bias. Don't know. I guess if Vegas had won in OT, I'd have said Thompson stole them the game, but I don't feel like Varlamov stole the game for the Isles--despite facing more shots. Either way, looks like Vegas doesn't have much of a net front presence.

I love this version of Krebs.

A lot of rebounds by Flower

I'm optimistic on this one. I think if they clean up the penalties they can blow this game wide open.

Jesus Quinn. That was Thompson-esque.

I am talking about this current season of Eichel in Vegas. He was on a tear, got injured, and hasn't looked the same since he got back. Sorry for the confusion.

If this happens and Krebs plays with the same attitude he has been playing with while on the ice with Okposo and Girgs, I really think the Quinn-Krebs-JJ line will be a lot better than people expect. We've seen Girgs-Asplund-Okposo before so we know what we're getting there. I suspect if the first period doesn't go well, the first change DG is making is to swap Asplund and Krebs.

He has Eichel centering a line of Cotter and Amadio. Paul Cotter might, might, play a traditional fourth line checking role in the NHL someday, but he's not much more than an AHL tweener right now. Amadio is at least a bona fide NHL player, but he's still a bottom 6 guy who is going to be fighting for his roster spot every year. Basically, Eichel is with two JAGs (or at least one JAG and one semi-JAG). How did that work for Jeff Skinner again? Anyone remember? Cassidy publicly named and shamed Eichel. Now he's playing him on a line with talent worse than Eichel played with at any point in Buffalo (remember all the "if Eichel were on a good team" arguments?). I recognize Stone is injured, but what is Cassidy even doing? That's not how you motivate Eichel to do better. He's going to keep phoning it in and he'll stay stuck in his weird mental space he goes to. Say what you want about the trade, Eichel's time here, or anything else Eichel/Buffalo related, but you can't deny that Eichel was on a tear to start this season in Vegas. He got injured and I am convinced something transpired with the coaching staff. Maybe he was asked to play through it. Maybe Cassidy told him he's too soft. I don't know. But I am convinced something happened and now Cassidy is at a loss for how to deal with Eichel because Cassidy's strong suit has never been player management.

"Many Sabres scouts graded Neuchev as a first- or early second-round pick. Their analytics staff pegged him as a first-round selection." Analytics strikes again (possibly).

Probably the most trivial and seemingly inconsequential part of a player's play I've ever noticed, but if you pay attention to line changes during the game, Jost presses and buys time while Mitts and VO lazily skate to the bench. I think that's why he's forced turnovers or added pressure so often and been seemingly unsupported--then suddenly support shows and it's KO and not VO. I'm convinced this weird act alone has improved the Sabres second period play as Mitts/VO aren't getting caught deep on a change. Anyone else notice this? Or am I just losing my mind?

There are two pieces to this. First, who is not currently on the team that could make it? Just looking at everyone: The options: Biro, Kulich, Savoie, Rousek, Weissbach, Murray, Cederqvist, Rosen, Kozak, Kisakov, Bloom, Nadeau, and Östlund. I'm intentionally leaving out unsigned prospects. Off the bat: I think Kozak and Kisakov are pretty unlikely. Both are getting pushed around in the AHL due to their size/strength. They need more seasoning. Bloom and Nadeau will play in Rochester next year and will be fun to follow, but I don't see either making the NHL roster. Cederqvist needs more time in the AHL as he isn't playing consistently but he is built and plays like a classic NHL 4th line player. I wouldn't write him off yet. He's like a younger Girgs honestly. I expect Savoie to play another season in juniors, but potentially getting a 9 game look to start this season depending on his camp and the roster. Similarly, I expect the same with Östlund who will likely stay in Sweden for another season. I suspect part of the Sabres' cap management plan is to slide both these ELCs. That leaves Rousek, Kulich, Rosen, Biro, Weissbach and Murray. Rousek has done everything asked of him and battled injury. He's a good player, strong on the boards, has speed and plays a two-way game. He doesn't have the skill to play in the top 6 in the NHL, but I think he could slide in on 3rd/4th as a role player. I expect he'll get the look over the less-skilled/slower Weissbach. Weissbach plays a similar game--he's just small. Rosen and Biro play like Top 6 players. Kulich is an enigma. He can play like a top 6 player, but he can also shut down opponents. He's good on carrying the puck into the zone and retrieval from corners. He plays like a bigger player than he is. I don't know if he's there yet, but he could eventually play almost any kind of roster role with the Sabres--especially under DG's system--if his game transitions well to the NHL. Finally, Murray should be more than capable of playing a 4th line role and adding "grit" and "size" and whatever other 80s/90s coaching clichés you can think of--except he at least has skill to go with it. I just don't think he's fast enough to play up the lineup though. So now to the second part: who do the players replace? How do you see the lines next season? Based on the current roster, I don't see Weissbach, Rosen or Biro making a Top 6 role and, while I recognize DG doesn't run a "traditional" frame for his lines, I'm not sure any of those three slide in on a third line either. Who do they replace? Right now, the only players without contracts next season are Okposo, Girgensons, Jost (RFA), Cozens (RFA), and Asplund (RFA). Asplund isn't in the lineup. No one in the farm system is going to replace Cozens. That leaves Jost, Girgs and Okposo as the current :"open" positions. I can see Rousek, Kulich and Murray playing 3rd/4th line spots. If one of Girgs/Okposos leaves, that opens up a fourth line spot. Any of those three players could slide in, but Murray is the best fit for replacing Girgensons. Kulich could replace Krebs if Krebs moves up in the roster. But Rousek, Kulich and Murray are all lefties. No one fits the role filled by Okposo right now--and I firmly believe Okposo is coming back next season anyway. Kulich could slide in for Jost on the third line, but I'm honestly not sure he's better right now considering Jost, VO, and Mitts are (finally) playing well together. This one might come down to camp. So, to go a very roundabout way of getting there, the only pick from 2022 I see potentially making the roster at the start of next year is Kulich and I don't think it's all that likely. This is from a combination of lack of available roster spots opening up, a lack of "vulnerable" players because we actually have talent (WHAT A CONCEPT!), and cap management. There's also other players in Rochester who are going to compete for the same spot(s) and some are arguably a better fit.

Concussion symptoms and lingering effects vary by person, but the official USA Hockey guideline is that any time loss of consciousness occurs, a concussion has taken place. You can have a concussion and suffer very few symptoms. Similarly, you can have a "minor" concussion that results in long-term issues.

I hate myself for being this pedantic, but concussions can happen from any blow to the head--regardless of how minor, seemingly innocuous, or the angle.

Apologies for the very late response (I was dealing with some personal stuff the last two months). We're fine. We woke to the tornado warning but nothing touched down near us.

I missed the goal because the Hulu app wasn’t working and I had to open ESPN. I demand compensation from Disney.

This is an interesting question because superficially you'd assume the answer is VO, but Asplund is a role player that doesn't currently have any obvious pipeline replacement for his spot. Don't know.

I suspect the answer to this question is directly related to how the salary cup jump affects contract AAV and term this off-season. VO is going to be 29 at the start of his next contract and that was the absolute prime age for an overpay contract via excessive term in the pre-flat cap era. I'm pretty sure Buffalo is aware of that as is, unfortunately, VO's agent. As of today, for core pieces, we'll need to sign Cozens after this season (preferably before the end of it, frankly) as well as Asplund. And Michael Houser, of course. After 2023-2024, we will need to re-sign the core pieces of Dahlin (RIP Cap) and Owen Power (I'm assuming he'll be a core piece) as well as potential core pieces of Mitts, Krebs, Joki, Bryson, Lybushkin, Comrie, and UPL. We'll have to do that with enough room left for JJ and Quinn the following year. It's also not counting cap space for any of the five signed 1st or 2nd round draft picks who could potentially be breaking the roster the season VO's contract is up which means future contracts for them will need to be considered. If Buffalo can re-sign VO without tying the Sabres down to term, I think Buffalo keeps him. If it's apparent that free agent contracts return to the previous norm of overpaying 28/29 year-old players for 7 years because the salary cap is treated like the stock market and can only go up, I really hope Buffalo trades VO instead of letting him walk or signing him to a long-term deal that hurts the team later. I also don't blame VO if he makes it apparent he wants to chase the free agency payday. Although, honestly, now that I think about it, of all the players we could punished for signing long-term contracts at age 29 to, it's hard to see VO's being one that regresses terribly by year 7. Lets be real, his money isn't in his skating or aggressiveness--it's his shot and his pass. Those two skills generally don't age as poorly as skating and physicality (that latter just ages into perennial LTIR). Huh. I wrote all that and now I'm just wondering how to find advanced stats for one-dimensional players and how they regress with age.

I'm saying it's OK to be optimistic for once instead of just continuing the decade of being miserable. There's plenty of valid criticisms of the team, but everything is always presented as "the sky is falling!" because everyone is so used to disappointment. The team is not going to win a Stanley Cup this season and, if odds were even, I would not be comfortable making a bet on whether this team will make the playoffs or not. Which itself is an improvement over recent memory. Point is, they're not a great team, but they're good and they're improving for the first time in a long time. It's something celebrate. The idea the sky is always falling doesn't sit with me.

It's pretty crazy that Thompson winning the Conn Smythe once only makes this trade even.

And MoneyPuck has them at 23rd. In fact, I think of all the analytics based rankings, the highest I've seen Buffalo is 19th. Meanwhile, the Hockey Guy last had them at 9th last week. Regardless... This team could be sitting at 109 points on April 13th and the pundits will still be asking if this team is real and someone on this board will be complaining about our goaltending or defensive depth not being enough to compete and KA should have traded away every Amerk for some aging star with a garbage contract. This team could be playing in game 4 of the Stanley Cup with a 3-0 series lead and someone on this board will post in the GDT how the wheels are falling off and the team is being exposed because last game the Sabres gave up an ugly goal in their 8 to 1 victory. In the thread about the cup parade in downtown Buffalo, someone is going to ask "Yeah, sure, they won the cup but it's like a 100 game sample size. How will we know this team is really legit?" By the way, if you think the above is a joke and not completely plausible, I've got news for you: you're that guy (or girl). The team is good and they have the potential to be great (emphasis on potential). They're going to be streaky because age and inexperience. That's to be expected. On the whole, however, the team is good. Are they going to make the playoffs? Who knows? Injuries could stall the season and there will be streaks where the team doesn't play well. Other teams are going to start gelling (Toronto or Tampa, for example) and Buffalo will need to find another gear. But, again, the team on the whole is good compared to years past. This is supported by the eye test and analytics. This isn't a team winning ten games in a row with 6 of those being OT/shootout wins. You will be alright. Everything is alright. It wasn't your fault. Krueger, Housley, Blysma, Nolan, Rolston, Botterill and Murray are gone. They can't hurt you anymore. It is okay to come into the light. It is okay to feel the warmth of the sun again. It is okay to be happy.

Last game I broke with my own habit of not making predictions. This is how I did: So this game I am going with the following five predictions: - All three rookies get a point. - Asplund gets a goal. - One of Pilut/Clague scores or gets a primary assist off a shot deflection - Buffalo gives up too many two-on-ones early in the game and struggles against Carolina in transition and on the breakout, but adjusts by the third period and has Carolina reeling. - There's a fight

We can talk about it. I think TT is a legitimate and capable 1C at this point. If we're going with the ESPN mantra of "EvErY TEaM NeeDS aN ELiTe 1C to WiN THe cUP" then no. He is not one, but you also don't need one to win a cup. There's realistically like 5 of those in the entire league and two of them are on the Cup-less Oilers and one is in a Cup-less Toronto.

Had our first vet appointment today. He is at 14.2 pounds and the vet did note he is slightly underweight for his frame. He was 11.6lbs on Saturday when I weighed him. Per the vet, he will likely come in around 80-85lbs fully grown based on his current weight and age, but she said we won't really have a good estimate (because he's a mix and will have a less predictable growth pattern than a purebred plus he appears to be slightly underweight) until he's 4-6 months old. She won't be surprised if he ends up breaking 100lbs or, conversely, slides in closer to 70. So it's a pretty big range, but he will be a big boy either way. On the subject of brains, he learned the clicker means a treat in fewer clicks than it took my Belgian Malinois which shocked me and he's learned to sit already--just working on repetitions with him on that for now. So that part of the Border Collie is coming through. Trying to teach him "come" has been fun though as he has learned the command, but you can only get maybe 4 or 5 repetitions in before he's decided he doesn't really feel like walking anymore and the stick/toy/rock/bare concrete at his feet looks interesting. Then he plops down and ignores the clicker. So that bit is certainly the Pyr coming through.

I was thinking the same, but I was going to guess TT for high sticking Alex DeBrincat by holding his stick at waist height.

Unfortunately for my standing on this board, my dad stopped going to Bills games when beer hit $1 which was sometime in the early 80s (I guess? it was before I was born is all I know). For the record, to this day he is adamant that beer should not cost more than $1. I kind of appreciate his stubbornness. He's an Amerks season ticket holder and he won't buy beer at Amerks games either because it's more than $1. Says a lot. Anyway, my maternal grandmother and her sister held Steelers season tickets since the 1970s. She ended up transferring them to my uncle and his wife around the time I was in middle school(ish?). His wife refused to go to any game that was "too cold" so I grew up going to Steelers games and became a Steelers fan--much to my father's chagrin. I'm also a Pirates fan because my grandparents would take me to Pirates games in the summer. On the flip side, I never went to a Penguins game, but I went to plenty of Sabres and Amerks games. Hence how I'm a Sabres fan. I just became a fan of whatever team I would see play in person. I've got a soft spot for the Bills, but I'm not a Bills fan. Granted, I've watched so little football in recent years I can't call myself a Steelers fan anymore either. There's also more to my criticisms of football than simply the excessive number of breaks and stoppages. There's the related note of games taking too long. When I was a young 20-something bachelor, I had no problem sitting on my couch for four hours on a Sunday to watch a football game. Now that I've got a family, it's easier to justify watching a hockey game on a week day after dinner than it is to justify taking up my Sunday afternoon to watch a football game. There are just other things I'd rather be doing at this point in my life. There were other things from the last decade that built up over time too and I'm sure if I sat here longer I'd think of a bunch. I was a big Penn State fan, but Sandusky happened and I virtually stopped watching college football as a result. I got less invested in football in general after that just as a side effect. My point is it's a lot of things that played into to it, but it was one minor thing that just turned the switch off in my brain because I felt the games themselves just weren't that interesting anymore. I don't think the quality of the on-field product is there. Hell, I watched two football games last season. I watched the Buffalo vs KC divisional playoff game and the Super Bowl. I only watched the Super Bowl because I was on a cruise ship and they had it projected on the pool deck under the stars--so that was a cool experience. But the divisional game? Man, that just reminded me not to watch the NFL. That was a great game that was ruined by garbage OT rules that had been garbage for a long time. Yes, I realize those rules have since changed, but it took ruining a QB duel of the ages for the NFL to do something. It's silly. My only contribution to the Buffalo Bills 2022-2023 thread was after the Titans game which I tuned in for about half of and my entire comment was: "I'll be honest, I don't really follow the Bills, but I did tune into this game and... holy hell." I'm glad the Bills are fun to watch and I'd love for Buffalo to win a Super Bowl, but I'm just over football. I'll stick to hockey, baseball when I'm working in the garage and half paying attention, and IndyCar when I've got nothing else. I don't mean this on a macro level of the season as momentum-needed-to-score, but on a shift-by-shift basis during the game, momentum certainly matters. Anyone who has played sports competitively knows the feeling where you feel you can suddenly just takeover a game because the adrenaline rush of something happening. You can pretty quickly lose that if the other team answers. My perspective on the excessive breaks in professional sports is simply that we take that away from the athletes and, if I played in those circumstances, it would drive me nuts. I think it diminishes how exciting the games could be as a result. Again, just a personal viewpoint.