RochesterExpat

In Novikov's defense (heh), he's a stay-at-home D-man who uses his stick and massive frame to break up plays. The fact he's played more games this year in the KHL than anyone on that list and is pushing 11 minutes TOI (vs 7 minutes last season) per game and is getting "real" PK time (he has played a few PP shifts too but not 'meaningful') means his real value is higher than people realize. Also, just a reminder, the KHL carries 8 dressed D-men a night, so 11 minutes TOI is 3rd pair. He's been bumped up to the second pair recently too.

I thought it would be fun to care about hockey games again in late February and into March. Turns out I forgot about the stress.

It's a promotion through demotion. Quinn is going to have a bigger** impact playing with Mitts and Krebs and JJ will stay in a more sheltered role. **meaning outsized compared to his linemates

Don't pick on goalies from the 80s. Even if they'll just stand there and take it, it's not very nice.

Oh absolutely, but when that's the entire description in the marketing material, you have to just laugh.

I don't know what caused us to collectively lose our problem solving skills. Google wasn't much help.

If we didn't have a flat cap this is what the cap hit % would look like already. Just saying.

Does he sign a new contract in NY? If so, how is that going to possibly work with their cap situation? I'd like to buy one slightly used RFA, K'Andre Miller, thanks.

Oh boy times have changed.

I don't understand this absurd fear of kids getting hurt and sheltering of them to no end. We swapped band-aids and Neosporin for home surveillance cameras and children wearing leashes at the grocery store. Our 8 year old has a bow, a BB gun and a pocket knife (more accurately a multitool). I told this to one of my wife's friends and she thought we were crazy and now won't let her kid over to our house for the boys to play. Keep in mind, the BB gun stays locked in the gun safe with the other guns and the bow is with my bow locked away in my workshop at all times unless getting used under supervision. He's allowed to keep the multitool on him when he's walking around the property, but he's also aware that if he's seen using it as a toy, it's gone. We've had zero issues. When I was 8 I sliced my thumb open on a pocket knife my grandfather gave me. I'll never forget crying and him just going "Well that was stupid of you. Probably shouldn't cut toward yourself next time." That was that. Lesson learned. People give me a weird look when I tell the kid to "figure it out" whenever he comes crying with a small problem. Can't figure out how to assemble the latest Lego set grandma bought? Figure it out, kid. I'm not going to do it for you. Is it really worth getting upset over? Just work the problem. Same as all the workbooks we buy him. He's done some of the 4th and 5th grade workbooks and gets stuck because the subjects are beyond what he's covered so far in the 2nd grade. That's fine. I'll show him how to do one problem after he reads the example problem out loud, but I'm not going to do the rest for him. He's a smart kid. He can figure it out. If he needs help, he gets enough to get him doing it on his own. I don't pretend to know how parenting is supposed to work, but that's at least my attitude and I'm sticking with it. The wife and I already had the discussion about how to handle children post-high school and we're both (thankfully) in agreement. If they're not actively working a full-time job or attending school, they're not living at home. If they're working, they're only living at home while they save money to find a place to live. I will not have a 25 year old chilling on my couch. I left home at 18 to go to college. That didn't work out so I joined the military. My sister did a PhD and lived at home during summers for 8 years after high school, but as soon as she got her PhD, she was on her own. We both turned out alright.

Just an FYI, there is no way mathematically in which $15m first and second year can result in a $9.75m AAV over 8 years under the current CBA. This is the more likely contract structure: My guess is Dahlin signs for 8 years at $9.825m cap hit which will be structured something akin to: Year 1 - 2024-2025: $775K base, $11.225m signing bonus, $12m total. Year 2 - 2025 - 2026 $12m base ***Year 3 - 2026 - 2027 $775k base, $11.225m signing bonus, $12m total Year 4 - 2027 - 2028 $12m base Year 5 - 2028 - 2029 $9m base Year 6 - 2029 - 2030 $7.2m base Year 7 - 2030 - 2031 $7.2m base Year 8 - 2031 - 2032 $7.2m base *** Current CBA expires September of 2026 and, given the possibility of a lockout that season, I think this structure is going to help push the deal through as the bonus gets paid regardless of whether a season happens or not and there is certainly a value to guaranteed money. And, yes, I am suggesting he goes for $9.825m AAV in part because the numbers work out nicely which made the math easy for me--but if he signs for anywhere between $9.5 and 10 I suspect it's using the above structure. He'll also get major "brownie points" (value TBD) for signing under $10m--although the above ultimately will cost him $1.4m pre-tax so maybe we can put a value on brownie points after all. This is a perfectly kosher NHL standard contract per the updated CBA. The max year-over-year differential is under the 25% of year one salary ($3,000,000) and the lowest year is exactly 60% of the value of the highest year ($7.2m). Keep in mind, Dylan Cozens, Tage Thompson, Mattias Sameulsson and Dahlin's bridge all got a $2m signing bonus paying the first year. VO, Bryson, Boosh, Girgs, Joki, Comrie, Anderson, and Mittlestadt are all 100% base salary contracts with no signing bonus. KO is consistent with signing bonuses. It's $2m or nothing. I think Dahlin is the player who breaks the mold for KA signings and I think it's the signing bonus timing and front-loaded structure which motivates him to sign for less, but I don't see KA breaking the mold entirely and making the entire contract minimum + signing bonus. I think it's first year (as he's done in the past) and then he dangles the CBA year as a treat. If Dahlin signs for 8 years at a still reasonable $10.5m and follows the KA contract pattern of a first year $2m signing bonus with every-year-after-paid-the-same, and a lockout happens in 2026, his contract value at conclusion is $73.5m whereas my above contract is $77.8m. Similarly, my above contract has him netting $6,000,000 added money in the first four years. Assuming that money is invested at the same rate (we'll use 7%) as the money from surplus the last four years of the $10.5m contract, the difference in total contract value is around $3.9m in favor of the $10.5m AAV--which is a little easier to swallow than the paper $5.4m total contract difference. If the ROI on his investments are 10%, the value difference in contracts is now under $3m. When you add in the guaranteed money from the possibility of a contract lockout, I think a reasonable person would consider the lower AAV contract to be a better deal even without the concept of a "team friendly" hit. And, again, all of that is still not even taking into Dahlin's competitiveness which might make him take a lower AAV if he knows that means the team will be a contender as a result of having more cap room. Anyway, that's my $.02 as armchair GM. Take it for what you will. Of course, it's also all predicated on the Pegulas being okay with a contract of that structure.

If it's a properly organized LLC he shouldn't be liable for the business debts, but I'm guessing he made a few mistakes along the way...

Apparently the bulk of this debt is tied to this venture, SolarCode LLC, but I can't seem to find much on the supposed company. In theory, it's a company that uses a solar collector to generate electricity, run a desalinization plant, split water into Hydrogen and Oxygen for further use, and, presumably, cuddle puppies at the same time. It looks like he tried to bankroll a startup and took out loans to keep it afloat? I'm not really sure. It doesn't even seem like a real company, honestly. The company claims to be headquartered in the US and was incorporated by a legal office (not a surprise if you're trying to stay private, but also not really as common as you'd think) and the listed office seems to be a shared space with a few other questionable companies (so I assume it's just a physical address for incorporation purposes). In the very least, there is no signage out front, but, in all likelihood, the office is just a paper address. The company further claims to be based out of Switzerland with an additional office in Morocco. I can't find any evidence those offices exist or ever existed for that matter. It claims to have "officers" in Istanbul, Mumbai and Doha. The latter is the only thing so far that checks out. The LinkedIn page has one employee on it and he's in Doha, Qatar. The images on the website are literally all stock images with the exception of the technology-diagram which is pretty hilarious to anyone who is an engineer: But the subcomponents for that diagram are based on images from the website for "Rhino Onward International"--which is at least a slightly-more-real-but-still-mostly-paper company (they have names and faces and people on LinkedIn at least). Case below: The bread and butter for SolarCode is the power generation in the form of concerntrated solar power via fresnel lens... the same design as the ROI site. I did find some news about SolarCode's company reps apparently meeting with Libya's Energy Minister, but that was it. I tracked down the solar project later and Libya went with a different company and chose to use PVs instead of concentrated solar. SolarCode also has a "WasteCode" section about dealing with waste. It uses entirely generated stock images to describe subcomponents (gasifier, conveyers, etc). There is a section called "HydroCode" which has a stock image of a galaxy and then text. Nothing else. Not even the effort to have subcomponents. But man, read this text: "SolarCode’s technology introduces ultraviolet (UV) radiation to obtain a mixture of hydrogen and oxygen (or hydrogen). The separation of water into the constituent parts by ultraviolet light is carried out from a solid aggregate state (microcrystals of ice water) using this source transmitted in concentration into one or more ice crystals of very low thickness and surface. The consumption of energy with our process is several times smaller (more than a factor of ten) than by electrolysis or other thermal processes. In optimal conditions we will generate approximate 1,800 liters (127.406 kilogram) per kilowatt of input energy." Finally, there is an AquaCode about desalinization that uses a stock image of a rain drop and doesn't have any subcomponent images. Just text. Such as: "Desalinator Heats water by hot air and transforms it into hot steam later cooled." Nice. It looks like Lehner fell for a scam--or else he wanted to scam Venture Capitalists himself.

If the salary cap went up as expected instead of the COVID-induced flat cap--and He-Who-Shall-Not-Be-Named never happened--I think we'd say Skinner's contract was fair enough no one would give it any mind.

How do people value players who can carry a line vs players who can't (i.e. Skinner)? Cozens has seemingly proven he can drive a line on his own. Surely that should be reflected in his valuation? Not that anyone cares, but my two cents on this one is that if Cozens simply plays the next seven years at the level he has played so far this year, I'm more than happy with the initial cap hit of 8.5%. If he continues to grow and improve as is expected for a (just about) 22 year old hockey player, I think this is a great contract. I have a difficult time seeing him regress because his play style is multifaceted and he is the one driving plays and carrying pucks in transition. He's not sitting on a circle ripping one timers on the power play for points.

Could walk around with it too* *except in the central business district of cities where prohibited under local jurisdiction, state parks, and convenience store parking lots

He’d make a terrible politician.

This is my thinking but I am struggling to come up with who you bring on. Who is really available that fits that billing? What team has a Top 4 stay-at-home defenseman that is available?

I love how I thought "All Star Break" and forgot the ASG takes place during it. Who would have thought? Clearly I need more coffee.

There are 13 players carrying a cap hit of $10m a year or more other than Eichel. That list includes Carey Price who is LTIRetired. Bobrovsky is also on the list as well so, when goalies are removed, that's a total of 11 other players making $10m a year. That list includes two defensemen as well (Doughty and Karlsson). So now we're talking 10 forwards in the entire league making his cap hit or more. Does anyone think Eichel is a top 10 league-wide forward? If we want to narrow it further, we can remove wingers (Panarin, Marner, Kane) and that leaves 7 centers. Is Eichel really that good to justify it? If we look at comparable contracts for age at signing, date of signing, games played and point production, this is what we get: McDavid signed his contract 4 months before Eichel after posting 100 points in 82 games and 9 points in 13 playoff games. The year prior he had 48 points in 45 games. Draisaitl signed his contract 2 months before Eichel. He posted 77 points in 82 games and 16 points in 13 playoff games. The year prior he had 51 points in 72 games. What about Jack? Jack posted 57 points in 61 games following a rookie season of 56 points in 81 games. His contract should have been line with Draisaitl's contract of $8.5m, but Buffalo instead gambled that Eichel would be at the level of McDavid when McDavid signed his contract (while Edmonton gambled that McDavid would be the McDavid he is today) and I'm sure Eichel's camp argued Draisaitl was a year older and more along in development, etc. Funny enough, if you swap Eichel and Draisaitl's contracts, suddenly neither looks bad. Eichel at $8.5x8 is more appropriate cap hit for his production that followed and Draisaitl at $10x8 is pretty fair to the player Draisaitl developed into.

If TNT sits out for the game, do you play Asplund again or recall Vinnie from Rochester? Asplund played 7 minutes on Saturday and that was it. Or do you recall Jiri "I have no other plans" Kulich and give him a game?

I think this is my perspective. I'd listen to offers on Savoie first because I see him as a Top 6 player--so his value should be high--but I don't see him breaking the roster next year. I don't see him as a bottom 6 player. Because Savoie was born a few hours too late to be eligible for Rochester next season, that leaves him another year in the WHL which I don't know will really benefit him. I'm afraid if he ends up on the roster next season he'll be in the Lafrenière position of being the wrong player on the wrong line in the wrong role and it ultimately hurting his development. If he does make the roster, I hope it's to bump Peterka down the lineup since I can see Peterka playing a third line role before I see Savoie in that position. Although, admittedly, I didn't see Krebs as an impactful 4th liner either. So maybe I am not the best judge. Östlund will spend next year in Sweden and ELC slide so I suspect he is going to be a part of the Sabres' cap management in the future. I'd still be open to offers on him, but I see the value in three years of having him on an ELC. Kulich plays like a talented third liner and I see a door open for him to take a role there in Buffalo next season. Obviously if you can trade him for an upgrade, I'd be listening, but I think he's the one Buffalo should be protecting the most because of how we are organizationally built as of right now heading into next season.

Out of curiosity, which prospect(s) do people consider expendable as far as trades are concerned?

Was this from his blocked shot?

Few fun bits: Noticeably absent players included French Connection member Rick Martin, Jim "bat killer" Lorentz, and the Oilers future captain and a Stanley Cup winner: defensemen Lee Foggolin. This was the last of three games that Alex Tidey played in Buffalo that season and one of only 9 NHL games he played in his career. Danny Gare was absent as well, but that was due to injury. Apparently only one goalie made it from Buffalo as well: starter Gerry Desjardins (whose career famously ends three games into next season with an eye injury). Al Smith was the slated backup. Funny enough, this wasn't the only game Buffalo would play with only one goalie that season. Al Smith quit the team two weeks later after he walked off the bench following the national anthem--leaving Don Edwards as the only dressed goalie in his first NHL game. The 70s were a wild ride.