RochesterExpat

Lets see Krebs step up!

Kings need a goalie as much as we do unless they're planning on the gamble of Copley for the rest of the season. Quick is not good this season. **Sorry, I meant this in the context of I'm not sure Chychrun makes sense for them.

Agreed on the latter item. That aside, when it comes to Chychrun, I don't think he's as good a fit for Buffalo as people make him out to be. He's not a puck-moving defenseman and his passing leaves a lot to be desired for a player of his caliber. His strength is his shot first followed by his play along the boards and his reads. While he has played on his off-side, his stats aren't as good as when he's playing on his left. Do we really need another left-shot D-man? I'd rather we find a player who can move the puck and pass the puck before we start targeting D-men where the strength is the shot. There's also the concern on his contract renewal cost in two years and our cap situation then, but that's less of a concern. Like I said, I don't think he's a good fit. It's not that I don't think he's a stellar hockey player because he is. I just think for the price they're reportedly asking, I'd want a player who is a better fit for our roster/situation. And, honestly, I think my big hang up is I believe we need a starting goalie first. I'd be willing to give up our 1st for Juuse Saros before Chychrun if that makes sense. And specifically Saros because he's posted outrageously good numbers considering the horrendous defense in front of him that gives up similar scoring chances as the Sabres. My biggest hangup with him is Nashville still blocks substantially more shots than Buffalo so I don't know if we'd see a true translation of his play. Which leads me to another point against Chychrun: he blocks fewer shots than Dahlin. I'd like us to fill that gap as well.

I don't see Chychrun as the answer to our problems. I'd like to understand why others do.

Sometimes being patient is the correct move. Plenty of teams have made terrible moves at the trade deadline because they wanted to rush it through. I'd rather be methodical.

Who is getting Korpisalo? Toronto?

I'm confused. Are Washington buying or selling?

The act of "waiving" the player is the act of removing them from the active NHL roster either by re-assignment (regular) or because you're buying out the contract (unconditional). Waivers come in once the player is removed from the roster. Not before. Better way to phrase it: think of waivers as the window during which other teams can claim a player after he is reassigned/removed from the NHL roster.

UPL was in net for the 4-3 (OT) win while Andy was in net for the 3-1 loss in the games against Boston earlier this year. I think DG is putting UPL in with a "just score more" approach. Odd today didn't go to Comrie though.

You can turn your western NY card in right now, sir.

I thought roster limits applied until the day after the deadline? Or is there a grace rule?

We have draft capital and prospects to move, but I'm only in favor of getting Jensen if we extend him for two years and I don't see Adams doing that anymore. Not if we're adding another NHL contract in Stillman. The only way I see it happening is if one of Clague or Bryson are packaged in the offer (or Stillman, I guess). I also think he's hesitant to add a top 4 D-man because the contract situation with Ryan Johnson. Alternatively, they're going to move Ryan Johnson's rights as part of the trade as well since he's technically worth a late 2nd round pick in 2024 (and Washington traded their 2024 2nd so it gives them one back--albeit late). So what's the offer for Jensen? A 2nd + Bryson? Adding Ryan Johnson's rights starts to sound like an overpay. Also we'd have to waive one of Krebs, Quinn, Peterka, Sammy, Power or UPL--although on paper only and something we're likely to do anyway so they're eligible for the AHL playoffs--to make room assuming we execute the trade Friday before the deadline. If we executed it before then, we'd have to send one to Rochester until Saturday.

I’m sure either UPL or Hino are paper Amerks right now since bother are waiver exempt.

Houser is on waivers so he doesn’t count against the limit anyway.

What is the deadline value for a 7th d-man and is it equal to or lesser than a bottom-6 ceiling NHL prospect that’s still in juniors? I feel like this is the metric to judge this trade. edit: it’s a sincere question. I don’t know.

Maybe we’re all overthinking it and it’s simply a reward from the organization before he goes to Cinci after Levi signs. That seems like something GMKA would do.

Watch, this is the missing piece to Chychrun because Arizona demanded a D-man coming back and GMKA didn't want to send anyone on the roster out of a fear of screwing up the vibes.

So... Well alright then. I don't get this move at all. Did Sam Ventura mastermind this based on some weird stats analysis we're not privy to?

Also who did we waive for the contract spot? We're at 23/23 right now.

Can we see his stats that don't include rookie years? Namely the last season? Then see those stats relative to the rest of the Canucks?

UPL's development curve has also been hampered by injuries. This year, thankfully, he's been healthy, but he's done nowhere close to a starting goalie's workload since the OHL and he still won't this season because the 3-headed goalie rotation. Since he was was drafted in 2017: 2017-18: 46 games (Liiga + WJC) 2018-19: 78 games (OHL, AHL (one game), WJC) 2019-20: 33 games (10 AHL, 23 ECHL) 2020-21: 31 games (Liiga for 13, AHL for 14, 4 in the NHL) 2021-22: 44 games (9 in NHL, 35 in AHL) 2022-23: 33 games (24 NHL, 9 AHL) -- 24 total games remaining of which I'd guess at most he gets 12 starts bringing him to 45 games Linus Ullmark's development curve since joining the league was 48, 56, 52, 37, 34, and 20 games during his tenure with Buffalo. Injuries obviously hurt him toward the end, but his initial seasons here were frontloaded. The opposite of UPL. UPL turns 24 in a couple days and goalies are just plain weird for development. The problem is the Sabres are ahead of schedule on the rebuild. If we were 15 points outside a playoff spot, everyone would be clamoring for UPL to start every game so he could get experience, but we aren't. The irony is that we're playing for wins at this point and the concern that UPL isn't reliable in net (which is completely valid because he isn't) runs counter to the stats: Craig Anderson is 9-7-2 this season, Eric Comrie is 7-8-0 and UPL is 15-8-2. If you want points you play UPL. Also, to preempt the argument about the losing streak when our D-men all decided to get hurt affecting goalie stats, we hit a losing streak from 11/4 (Anderson) that lasted until 11/23 (UPL). During that time, UPL lost one, Comrie lost 4, and Anderson lost 3. If we take those games out, the goal tending is all about even and it doesn't make Anderson a clear frontrunner. So yes we should be starting UPL still if we choose to cherry pick the season. So how bad is UPL? When Craig is on the ice, the xGAA is 3.21 and his real GAA is 2.70 which puts him at .51 which is enough for 7th in the league for goalies with 15+ starts which is good for those of you keep track at home. More interestingly, the xGAA for both UPL and Comrie is worse. UPL is 3.47 and Comrie is 3.30 for a GAA better than expected of -.10 and -.30, respectively. UPL's xGAA better than expected is basically "average" by the model and Comrie's is bad. The difference between the xGAA for Andy and UPL is .26 and for Comrie and Andy it's .09. So what's up with the Andy and UPL numbers? When Andy is in net, the Sabres are blocking more shots (quite a bit more per 60) and aren't allowing the same high-danger scoring chances they are against UPL and Comrie. They're playing more defensively. The team is also playing more defensively with Comrie than UPL which is telling of Comrie's play and not in a good way. What other teams have deltas this large between goalies? Only teams with clear frontrunners in net (Colorado: .44, Calgary: .29, Islanders: .23) come close to Buffalo. It's a cheap and easy metric for how much players trust their goalies. The problem in Buffalo's case is the goalie the players trust to make saves is playing basically league-average goaltending. He's not a superstar. He's just marginally worse than the model's "average" goalie. Also, for the record, last season the difference between Tokarski and Anderson (the only two goalies with 15+ starts) was .04. Point of order on xGAA: rebounds can negatively effect the score because those tend to be "high danger" chances, but UPL is handling rebounds better than both Comrie and Anderson this season so, if anything, it makes the argument about the defense in front of him more apparent. So how bad is the defense in front of UPL that's allowing these shots? Well, the only goalies ahead of him are with Anaheim, Montreal, Arizona, Columbus and Chicago. So, yeah, when we play like a bottom tier team, we let in a lot of goals. I realize that's a simplification, but the generality holds true. And the goaltending in front of Comrie and Andy isn't much better but it is still better. So to summarize my totally unpopular opinion: UPL is not a good goalie but he's not as bad as people think either because the team doesn't play defense in front of him like they do Andy or even Comrie. This hurts his stats. No one would think twice about this if we weren't pushing for a playoff spot ahead of schedule which, funny enough, is largely because of UPL's play. Craig is a better goalie, yes, but the team doesn't win games at the same rate as they do under UPL so someone call a sports psychologist to explain that one. Do you want wins or good goaltending? Because in Buffalo you don't get both. At the end of the day, we need to ask ourselves if we want to try and accelerate the timeline to make a playoff spot only to get absolutely hammered in the first round when our lack of defensive play and goaltending becomes apparent. Also, adding another defensemen isn't the solution to the issue when we have a good chunk of the middle six that's a defensive liability on 5v5. The cost of playing more defense in front of Andy comes at the cost of wins. With UPL in net, the team's attitude is "score more, win more" and with Craig it's more of a complete style of hockey (which just further shows the issues in our current roster). We're not a team that can play a complete game yet. That's something that needs to be fixed in the off-season and not at the overpriced trade deadline. Keep playing UPL so he gets reps. Stop worrying about the playoffs--we weren't supposed to make it this year anyway. Be happy we are team chaos and just embrace it.

AHEM

Who is available and at what long-term cost though?

I think UPL staying in the NHL and getting the bulk of starts is better at this point for his development, but I don't think it's better for the team.