RochesterExpat

Filip Cederqvist might be the better replacement for Z based on last season, but he's also 2 years older than Kozak and has the muscle mass to show for it--so I guess not surprising? Neither of them will be in Buffalo next season though. I'd bet money that Cederqvist has a 'breakout' season in the A next season (although I don't mean 'breakout' in terms of goals scored as much as presence in front of the net, play disruption, PK minutes eaten, and the like).

He could play with Okposo and Krebs and would likely fit in, but I don’t think that’s the correct move. It’s like using your Ferrari to pick up groceries. I watched the majority of Amerks regular season and post-season games. Kulich is the better player on paper and he has seemingly far more potential than Rousek. He is faster and has a harder shot. Rousek is the more complete player right now though. Kulich needs another stint in the AHL to work on his defensive zone play. He also needs to continue to improve his pace of play. He jumps the boards and goes 100mph for 15 seconds before he’s gassed and suddenly lagging the play. Pretty expected for an eager 18/19 year old who played double the number of games last season than he’d ever played in a season. But both his defensive zone play and his pace of play dramatically improved over the course of the season and he looked solid (for the most part) in the playoffs. Give him a chance to start the season in Rochester and demonstrate he’s taken the next steps. Then when the first injury in the top 6 happens, call him up and run the Ferrari around the track. Burying him with Krebs and Okposo might help his defensive game, but it might also blow his confidence when he doesn’t get the same offensive opportunities. Rousek is solid in the D-zone and a smart player offensively. He moves the puck well in transition. He is consistent. He fits anywhere in the bottom 6. I don’t think Kulich should be put on our 4th line. Kulich may see a spot on the 3rd line depending on how camp works out, trades, and free agent signings, but for now I think he is best served in Rochester to start.

Arizona probably wants to trade him to punish him for keeping their tanking for Bedard from being successful. Although, if Arizona wants to punish a player, wouldn’t trading him be the opposite of that?

Sorry for the lack of clarity. I meant recency bias toward a lower SV% (e.g. closer to .900 than .915) make his career numbers listed out on a season basis look better than they are. His real numbers for 3 of his 5 NHL seasons are below league average compared to goalies with 20 or 25 starts (sorry, I can’t remember which number I pulled earlier). This season he was above average. I didn’t mean to suggest otherwise. The trend over the last decade is lower SV%. It’s why numbers in a vacuum are meaningless. In 2014-2015, for goalies with 25 or more starts, only 3 of 46 were below .900 (6.5%). The 23rd spot was .916. In 2022-2023, 19 of 53 goalies (35.8%) were under .900. Instead of being a middle of the pack 23rd of 46, a .916 this season was 10th of 53. For the record, 19 of the 46 goalies in 2014-2015 had negative GSAx (41.3%). In 2022-2023, 22 of 53 goalies had negative GSAx (41.5%). That is one of the reasons GSAx is a generally better metric for this type of comparison.

I want to jump on any bandwagon that has Buffalo upgrading the current goalie situation. Carter Hart is an upgrade over UPL and Comrie. That being said, he's not as good as you've been making him out to be. Sv% is misleading and three of those 5 seasons were below league averages anyway. It's recent bias that makes the numbers appear better. If Philly's defense was the only issue, his GSAx would be positive every season (in theory and, yes, I'm aware that's not really how it works). 2022-2023: GSAx 10.3 / GSAx per 60: 0.195 2021-2022: GSAx -6.6 / GSAx per 60: -0.152 2020-2021: GSAx -18.3 / GSAx per 60: -0.754 2019-2020: GSAx 6.9 / GSAx per 60: 0.177 2018-2019: GSAx -1.3 / GSAx per 60: -0.045 Of goalies to play at least 25 games in terms of GSAx: '23: 15 of 52 '22: 35 of 53 '21: 30 of 32 (since this was the shortened season, he's still 56 of 58 when changing to 15 games) '20: 7 of 52 '19: 25 of 54 Of goalies to play at least 25 games in terms of GSAx per 60 (usually doesn't change too much when already filtering for 25 games but worth adding): '23: 15 of 52 '22: 35 of 53 '21: 32 of 32 (since this was the shortened season, he's still 57 of 58 when changing to 15 games--Ryan Miller was last) '20: 7 of 52 '19: 27 of 54 So four seasons ago, he was a top 10 goalie in the league and it was his best season. This season he was 15th. The other three seasons he was negative GSAx and negative WAR. Granted, in the past 5 seasons he's done better than any Sabres goalies except for the Messiah himself, Michael Houser, and the Leviathan in terms of GSAx per 60. If we want an inconsistent goalie and think the ask is anything higher than a 2nd + UPL + Murray/Weissbach, we should just sign Frederik Andersen in free agency since he'll probably take a two year deal and it won't cost us any assets. Frederik Andersen GSAx per 60 (GSAx in parentheses) over the same timeframe. '23: 37 of 52 (-3.5) '22: 2 of 53 (27.8) '21: 21 of 37 (he played 24 games, adjusted the games played for that) (-4.8) '20: 40 of 52 (-14.3) '19: 11 of 54 (12.0) There's one other missing piece which is that Freddie has never had under .500 win % in terms of starts in any of his 10 seasons in the NHL. There's something to be said for that. I also concede that I don't know what expectations we're all having for this season. If we want to just make the playoffs, I'm confident enough that Carter Hart is going to get us there. If we want to be a serious contender in the playoffs, I have my doubts that Hart is the right goalie and there aren't a ton of alternatives. Betting on Levi being the second coming of Hasek should not be considered one of them. And, now that I think about it, if we're talking about playoff goaltending, I think I'd rather have Andersen. The window for Buffalo is wide open if we find a goalie and a D-man. I guess we can debate the caliber goalie we need, but we shouldn't sell the farm for someone who isn't going to put us over the edge from making the playoffs to being a contender. I don't believe Hart is that goalie. To me, trading a 1st is selling the farm.

Hart is not worth a first. He’s not that good. Is he an improvement over Comrie/UPL? Yes. Does being better than either of them make him worth trading a first? No. A 3rd, Weissbach and UPL. Or a 2nd and UPL.

Of just Chicago generally.

I know what you mean by this but it should be stressed that AHL teams still need veterans. Look at the Hershey team that beat Rochester. If Rochester didn’t even offer Pilut an AHL contract I’ll be disappointed (pretty sure Swiss League pays more though).

We only know he was available at the deadline this year and he almost ended up in Edmonton (the Kings apparently inquired too but traded for Korpisalo instead because the ask for Saros was too high). Since then the rumors have died down and I suspect the thinking from Nashville's view is to see how the younger players perform at the start of the season and revisit trading Saros at the deadline if the team is outside contention. That being said, there are plenty of "insiders" who are projecting a Saros trade this off-season to really jumpstart the Nashville rebuild. Those are just guesses though. The assumption he is still available is based on his availability at the deadline. Personally, I'd prefer to see Joki moved and a FA like Scott Mayfield brought in instead. That way the 5/6 is a rotation of Boosh, Stillman and Mayfield which Granato can match up against specific teams. For the acquisition guy, I'm going to continue to push DeMelo as the trade target. I don't like Kulich in the NHL though. He's not ready. His defensive game needs growth. He should sit one more year in the AHL as the first call up. In my mind, the bottom six would be some arrangement of Mitts, Krebs, KO, Girgs, Rousek and Greenway. I think Jost's QO makes it problematic to bring him back, but I could see him as the 13th forward. If Graves signs for the $4.6m Evolving Hockey projects him at then I'd be jumping all over adding him, but I think he's going to end up going for more than that and I don't want to add a 4th D-man for high AAV with term. It seems like a substantial risk given the number of contracts we have in the next few years. UPL is in the organization at the wrong time. He doesn't appear to be an NHL starter as his performance drops off as games played increases, but he looks like he could end up a backup. If we were three years along and Levi ends up a true starting goalie, UPL would be the sensible backup. We're just not there.

I was a huge advocate of trying to acquire Saros at the trade deadline this year. That being said, I was typing up a whole thing about how I don't see this happening unless GMKA sweet talks Trotz because Nashville added 8 draft picks at the deadline this year and aren't going to do a full-on rebuild. Then I looked at the roster... Yeah. Lot of expiring contracts. Lot of terrible contracts. New coach. New GM. They have Askarov in the wings and UPL could just split the pipes with Lankinen for the full next season. Are they going to really sign Saros in two years to a new contract? I doubt it if Askarov looks prime time ready. Especially if Saros wants term as he'll be 30 and it's his last big potential payday. Saros makes sense for a mentor for Levi as they're both small goalies and Levi's even said he looks to Saros' game as a model. Saros faces a ton of shots and his advanced stats should translate well(ish) to Buffalo given the similar defensive weaknesses (to put it mildly). I've been pushing DeMelo. Power can be his next Morrissey. DeMelo, Saros and a defenseman-to-be-named-later should be enough to get Buffalo into the playoffs by more than a "snuck in" margin.

Yeah there’s a puzzle piece that we’re not privy to. It could be as mundane as Johnson simply taking GMKA’s words about focusing on finishing the school year and enjoying himself to heart and GMKA knew he’d sign at the end of the semester so it was a non-issue. It could be something more worrisome like his dad/agent (both?) suggesting to him that he might not get a contract offer from a team for anything beyond an AHL horizon and Buffalo is his last/best bet. Not sure I believe either of those. Hell, it could just be the dude had a hot girlfriend who was a Leafs fan and he needed to dump her first.

I agree about KA’s attitude, but we found out after the fact Ullmark wanted $6m to stay in Buffalo and the internal bean counters/statisticians said it wasn’t worth it. They were right with the data they had at the time. He didn’t exactly have a consistent healthy run in Buffalo… So I don’t think Ullmark was a hard no or hating on Buffalo. I think he just wanted his payday and his agent oversold him on his value.

I read a bunch on ELC contracts this morning and they’re not as uniform as I thought. Teams have quite a bit of control on bonus categories and which (if any) bonuses the player is eligible for. The range of base salary isn’t big, but there’s another (up to) 7 figures hidden away. From his draft year, 70% of prospect contracts have bonuses attached to them. Not a lot are max bonus. A team is also capped at 7.5% of salary cap in performance bonuses which could be an issue for Buffalo given all the other players on ELCs. Funny enough, for draft year 22 and later the contract structure has changed to be both friendlier to the team and to the prospect. But Johnson doesn’t fall under that CBA. Given his dad works in the league, I wonder if he was telling Johnson or his agent to make sure there was a bonus structure and it was such that they were “easy” bonuses to achieve. If you look at categories and conditions, a lot of the defensive bonuses aren’t exactly easy for a two way defender to get. It’s possible Johnson wanted to finish school and had no intention of playing in Rochester this spring anyway. If that was the case, we might have just been sitting here assuming he had no interest being on the team when the reality was it was just a contract negotiation like we’d see with a standard player contract (only on an ELC). That could also explain why the “insider” language was always “Buffalo believes they can get a deal done” and not “Buffalo believes Johnson will sign.” It’s also telling that Friedman commented yesterday (or the day before?) that Buffalo was content with a compensatory pick and today we see Johnson signs his contract. It’s possible that was GMKA using the media similarly to how the front office allegedly used a mythical Calgary deal for Eichel to boost his value. “We’re content with the compensatory pick” is a public way of saying “that’s the best deal we’re going to offer” when GMKA has otherwise said consistently that he sees Johnson as a part of the future. So while we rarely hear about ELC contract holdouts, I think that’s what this was.

I looked into it and they’re not. Apparently teams get a healthy amount of latitude for selecting categories of performance bonuses on each contract. That being said, given the cap situation in Buffalo, I don’t understand why that would really matter. The only possible issue is that Buffalo is going to hit the team performance bonus cap next season. I’m too tired to dig further tonight.

Is it possible they’re negotiating bonuses and there is disagreement there?

For current non-roster players, Kulich and Savoie are untouchable in my eyes and I say that after writing a whole thing in another thread that I think Rosen is closer to NHL-ready than Kulich because he's got a more well-rounded game (although Rousek is ahead of Rosen as far as readiness goes based on my observations watching Rochester). Before someone asks the reductio ad absurdum, yes, I'd be willing to trade both Kulich and Savoie for McDavid and Draisaitl at 50% retained. "Untouchable" is not a literal statement. It means that the return I'd like to see for them far exceeds what any team is going to willingly offer GMKA. I believe Rosen is underrated because his numbers out of Sweden in the season following his draft weren't very good as a result of very limited ice time and he was drafted several spots of ahead of his consensus ranking. When you combine those considerations, you end up with a controversial player (just look at this thread). There's a lot of built-in bias against him as a result. He's still in need of some serious time this off-season in the weight room (same as Kisakov). As the whole start of this thread points out, he didn't post the JJP/Quinn numbers despite the same approximate age for his first AHL season. But if you look at his play for the latter third of the season and now into the playoffs, there's no denying that Rosen has an outsized on-ice impact. I doubt any serious Amerks fans will disagree with that. It's the same impact that was completely absent from Quinn during the playoffs last season, so I recognize it's not a universal indicator on future success. I'd still be willing to part with Rosen though if it meant improving Buffalo tomorrow. Same as Rousek although I'd like Rousek to get a season with Buffalo first if only for visibility. Östlund I'm less willing to see moved because I think his horizon to join the big club is later and his ELC may provide some cap relief at that point (I also think he's more talented than Rosen), but I'm not on the same level of EA NHL tier trade expectations that I am with Kulich/Savoie. If we end up with another forward in the first round this year, I'd probably more inclined to lower my valuation on Östlund.

Just want to point out that Tuch is young relative to the league still. He'll be 30 when he's due a new contract following 25-26. KO is 35. The thread theme will be "why did we sign him for 7 years?" not "why did we sign him for one year?" The appropriate player to call out for the next "[x] is back" is Jeff Skinner following the 26-27 season. He'll be KO's age if they bring him back.

We're not in disagreement there and I apologize for the confusion. I grouped them together because I don't consider them part of the Skinner, Tuch, TT, Mitts, Cozens, and Quinn group quite yet. I think JJP and Krebs are more likely to remain on the roster than Okposo. Krebs has shown he can play as a 4th liner and will certainly be given ice time over Okposo if that type of scenario were to ever unfold. I'm willing to bet this is JJP's breakout season, but it doesn't alter the fact Quinn was getting the added ice time at the end of the season. That would suggest to me that JJP is more "vulnerable" than Quinn. I fully expect him to play a full season. It's just in terms of tiers, I'd put them outside the other 6. I should clarify that vulnerable doesn't mean he's not going to be on the opening night roster. I fully expect him to be on the opening night roster as well. Greenway's headwind that leaves him more vulnerable (in my opinion) is just the shorter amount of time he's spent in the organization. Joining at the trade deadline plus injuries didn't help him. He didn't really find his spot in the roster as a result. Hence why I put him in that group. He's also a role player and there's not anyone threatening to really take his role as it is anyway. It would be odd for the Sabres to sign or trade for someone to supplant him considering, as you pointed out, they gave up a 2nd round pick for him already. If the Sabres make the playoffs, they're going to need to add another Greenway if anything.

I understand what you mean, but I disagree with cause and effect. There isn't an open competition because there's not a chance 12 players are going to outplay Tage for a roster spot. The top 6 players are generally safe because they're talented enough to be in the top 6 to begin with and, in the event they are replaced, they move down the lineup. They don't get waived. When I am talking about competition for roster spots, I'm talking about the bottom 6.. Those spots aren't guaranteed. KO isn't getting signed to play a top 6 role. The forwards who are not guaranteed roster spots in 23-24 are Greenway, VO, and Jost (if he comes back). Not to mention anyone currently on the Amerks. The next group of "vulnerable" players is going to be KO, Krebs and JJP. That group will be given the benefit of the doubt though over unproven players like Rousek, but they'll still need to prove they deserve ice time.

Olischefski or Cederqvist are my guesses.

I agree and it doesn't make me happy by any stretch. I do believe if he's beat out by our rookies he'll end up on a suspiciously convenient LTIR of his own choosing. That being said, he's realistically signed as a 4th line role player and, while we could improve that via FA, we don't have a lot of NHL-ready 4th line role players in the Org right now. I don't really see him taking a roster spot from a rookie because it isn't really a spot our rookies are likely competing for in the first place. I'm going to be a lot more upset if we have VO dressed on opening night.

No one (including KO) should be guaranteed a roster spot anymore. The team is at that point. You earn your spot on the roster and if you're not performing or someone starts outperforming you then you're out. You're either developed enough to hold your own in the NHL, or the team needs to replace you with someone who is already at that point. To some extent, we saw this transition last season compared to 21-22. Players spent time in the press box when they weren't performing. The farm team is no longer in Buffalo. I'd argue saying Savoie is a lock is a stretch, but recent events might indicate he's going to get at least his 10 games. I think it's possible the Sabres Organization petitions the league that he should be treated as a 4th year junior player (as he would be if COVID didn't happen) which would allow him to play in Rochester. No idea. That one will (and should) be decided at camp. But so should every other position from 1C to 7th D. As far as Rosen and Kulich are concerned, I think Rosen is closer to the NHL in terms of play than Kulich and I say that as a pretty big Kulich fanboy who wanted him in the A this season. Kulich has the goal scoring since there is no doubting he has an NHL shot. That gives him the visibility, but if you watch Rochester play, Rosen is more impactful on a shift-to-shift basis. Kulich needs to work on his defensive play and he's still struggling to carry his explosiveness through the entire shift (much less so than at the beginning of the season where he'd go 100mph for the first half of his shift before tiring himself out). I honestly think the stamina/pacing issue might be a large part of the cause for his defensive shortcomings considering how he was utilized for most of the season (he's on the ice for transitions to the offensive zone and doesn't usually start his shifts defensively which means he's exhausted by the time the puck is in the Amerks' zone). He played much better defensively at the WJC last summer and even this winter than he has in Rochester for most of the season. I don't believe he's a flawed player by any stretch. He's just, well, 19. A young 19 at that. As of right now, Kulich could be viewed as a replacement for VO: a goal scorer who can pass the puck well, sure, but is only remembered by fans for his goal scoring and who disappears for times on the ice. To Kulich's credit, at the age of 19 he can already score from a lot more places than VO can so he's an improvement in that regard; however, this team doesn't need VO, much less replacing him with just another shooter who is a defensive liability. This is Kulich's first season in NA and will be his first season playing 80+ games (counting the WJC). He's learning to pace himself. It's also possible he works on his game enough this off-season that the entire point is moot and he shows up to camp and dominates. On the other hand, Rosen has shown his speed isn't hampered by "playoff" hockey which I've found honestly surprising considering I think he still needs to live in a weight room this off-season with a protein IV drip. Rosen has genuine pro-level vision and he's done a lot to bury concerns people had for him after his season in Sweden following the draft. Not to mention he's apparently got one hell of a shot that seemingly developed out of nowhere (maybe Kulich bullied him into practicing it). If we're talking about third or fourth line slots being the most likely ones to open on the roster for next season, Rosen is going to look like he belongs more so than Kulich. Regardless, Rousek is the most NHL-ready of the three and should be the first player given a look in Buffalo for a depth role. Rousek may not get the same coverage in conversation that Kulich or Rosen get, but he's impossible to miss when he's on the ice in Rochester. He plays a complete game and he makes an impact every shift. If we're talking about the best player taking a roster spot, he's--at least right now--better than Kulich and Rosen. Of course, that could all change by the time camp comes around. I think the important asterisk to add to this discussion is that Rousek doesn't have the same ceiling as Kulich, Savoie or Rosen. I will happily eat my hat if I'm wrong, but I don't see Rousek ever being a star in the NHL. You also don't make playoff runs without players that most casual fans forget about in the years that follow (here's to you perennially underappreciated Jochen Hecht). On the flip side, if/when Kulich rounds out his game, he's going to be taking a spot in the Top 6 and not looking back. Savoie is going to do the same. Honestly, in a year, Rosen may be the replacement for Rousek and Rousek may be trade bait. No clue.

I suppose this should go in this thread instead of the Savoie to Rochester thread so I can get properly flamed: To build on that slightly, I'm less sold on trading for Hellebuyck because I suspect the asking price is sky-high, but I believe DeMelo could be had for a reasonable price (assuming we're not on his 6 team NTC). Historically a RHD 2nd pairing D-man is worth around a 2nd + change. We have two 2nd rounders this draft and Winnipeg doesn't have any. I'd like to see GMKA act proactively and make the trade prior to the draft. A pick with a known draft position in the top half of the 2nd is worth more than a 2024 2nd that could end up 64th overall. Ideally the deal has Bryson heading out of town as well, but I'm not sure what cost to Buffalo that might be nor do I think Winnipeg wants to take on his small cap hit for one more year. It's possible we add someone like Weissbach/Rousek to the deal if it means they'll take Bryson. The basis of the trade in my mind would be: To Buffalo: DeMelo Rights to Gawanke To Winnipeg: 2023 2nd (45th OA) Gawanke is an intriguing AHLer who just told the Jets organization to pound sand by signing a contract in the DEL because he wasn't getting a look at the NHL level and his request to be traded was ignored. I don't know if he'll end up an NHLer, but he's a 24-year-old (in like two weeks) 6'1 RHD who looked really good with the Moose last season. I'd like to see him go from the Moose to the "shoot the Moose" team and watch how he does. I would venture a guess he'd happily sign with Buffalo considering our current openings at defense. I also think this is a reasonable move to expect from GMKA who has--at least so far--avoided splashy moves. It adds a player for a full season who is on a more than reasonable contract and who we could likely extend. I'd also look at Chicago to work some kind of deal to bring Connor Murphy to Buffalo (is there a no-take-backsies rule with Joki?). I think that gives you two reasonable options to pair with Power while simultaneously upgrading the third pairing/adding depth. I don't know if Murphy is available though. Both players fit the role player stereotype which should give Power the runway to take off offensively. I think DeMelo is the better option because he's a better puck mover and would fit easier into Granato's system, but I don't think Murphy would be an issue. I get that everyone wants a big name or a superstar but we already have two of those on defense. The reality is we need a 4th guy (and a 5th guy for that matter). Adding someone making $6m a year is a waste of cap space to tie up on a player who should be the secondary partner on the 2nd pairing. It's critical to upgrade the 4th and 5th D spots this offseason and I think most (all?) fans agrees with this. If/when Adams adds a player, I want my reaction to be "oh okay yeah that makes sense, good on ya mate" and not "OH MY GOD WE SIGNED [x]!!!!!! LEMME GO BUY A JERSEY!!!!" If it's the latter reaction, we're going to watch Drury and Briere leave all over again. I have no idea what to do about goaltending except to sign Houser to an NHL contract and let him be our 1A.