RochesterExpat

Do people really think Colorado is going to win the cup next season? Nichuskin is in player assistance. Landeskog hasn't played in two years. They have $18m left right now with only 7 forwards and 4 defensemen signed. If Landeskog and Nichushkin return, they're left with $6m and a need for three forwards and two defensemen. I assume one or both are done/gone. I just don't see how Colorado maintains status as a contender. That being said, it would be very on-brand for Buffalo if Mitts gets a cup next.

Fair enough. Frankly, I’m with you that those contract numbers are insane. I would never sign him for that, but he showed last season he’s fine as a 3rd pairing guy. i guess from my perspective there are enough other holes in the roster that worrying about Joki coming back on the third pair just isn’t one that I’m going to stress about.

Do you have an issue with Joki as a third pairing guy? Genuine question.

I don't understand the Dubois for Kuemper trade. Can someone explain to me why the Caps were willing to make that trade? Is it simply that they think he's a reclamation project?

Every place has drawbacks and advantages. My argument about housing not accounting for higher taxes is a true statement. Not sure why the seemingly hostile response. WNY housing is misleading when it comes to affordability. Here are the realities from my own personal experience. My house in Texas is valued by the county at $850,000 and my property tax bill is $8,200. My insurance on the house is $3,750 a year in Texas ($5k deductible for the roof which is on the more expensive side, for sure). This is the same state where apparently every house is leveled every 5 to 10 years—even though Monroe County, NY has had more tornadoes the last ten years than my county in Texas. Anyway, that’s basically $12,000 a year in property tax + insurance on an $850,000, 3,700 square foot home with a four car attached garage. Now we can talk about Florida and income tax. It’s not as much as people think, but a quick calculator assumes $10,000 in NY income tax on $200,000 taxable income for a married couple. Since no income tax in Texas would make this Florida rule apply, I’m adding it in. I don’t see a 10 year old 3,700 square foot home with a four car attached garage costing less than $12,000 a year in insurance and property tax in NY. At least not in economically equivalent areas. Much less when we add in the $10,000 in income taxes. But my point was about the effect on the market. By raising property taxes to avoid cutting spending— a requirement due to depressed real estate prices from heavy industry leaving (among other things) in the 70s and 80s—WNY essentially kept property values depressed. It directly affects the affordability of most buyers. Cash buyers are the exception. It’s also worth mentioning that those school taxes go to a lot. My hometown outside Rochester offers a lot more AP classes and general college prep programs than where we currently live. College placement and standardized exam scores are roughly the same so academically the schools are pretty similar, but NY certainly wins by a country mile when it comes to opportunities. I would happily pay more tax for those kinds of opportunities, but we generally just want to spend tax money on high school football stadiums. There isn’t anything wrong with WNY. It’s a great place to raise a family. It’s just the taxes cause the cost of housing to be higher than I believe that article is giving credit to.

If we’re looking at monthly housing payments beyond principle + interest, WNY is going to be higher due to property + school taxes. My parents sold their home in Rochester and bought a home that was twice as expensive here and their total property tax here is less than just the school tax was in NY. In fact, they were confused there wasn’t a separate school tax and didn’t understand how their taxes could go down when moving into a more expensive home. Houses are “cheap” in WNY because outrageously high property taxes relative to the rest of the country effectively capped the market. It’s basically the cash buyer’s dream.

Yes. I don’t expect them to win. Last year we all knew Buffalo needed to add to the defense in the offseason and add to the offense to cover for Jack Quinn’s injury. We got Benson for Quinn who was not a replacement (he still had a good rookie season so this isn’t anything against Benson) and we got the EJ (cheap “veteran”) and Clifton (underwhelming for most of the season). And then we missed the playoffs. Again. Other than a new coach, what has happened to lead anyone to believe this year will be a different offseason experience?

I’ve been saying 3 because I am hoping we have Rousek as the 14th forward this season to start and I am absolutely fine with that. If we bring in 4 and that moves Krebs to that 14th/rotational spot, that’s even better. I am also assuming Skinner returns next season. It’s basically three or bust for me. Four is a bonus. But I don’t except more than two additions. The sad truth is this is how I expect our lineup to be for opening night: —— JJP - Thompson - Tuch Benson - Cozens - Quinn Skinner - Krebs - [Underwhelming Add] Greenway - Girgensons - [“veteran” on basically league minimum we all forget the name of in 3 years] Rousek —— Dahlin - Power Sammy - Byram Clifton - Joki Bryson, Clague —— This team has turned me into a real pessimist. Not sure I’ve ever hoped to be more wrong about anything with sports before.

He is if we think grit as an unrelenting forechecking motor. He’s just not a bone-crushing hitter and I don’t think he ever will be. He’s kind of like Benson in that regard. Benson is scrappier (not sure the word I’m looking for but scrappy seems to fit).

First striper of the year.

Fixed it.

If your answer is “staying healthy” the correct response is “adding depth” since one is simply a hope and prayer and the other is proactive. There is only so much that can be done to stay healthy. A lot of that is up to luck. We add depth by replacing/retooling the entire bottom six and adding at least one scoring top 6 threat.

I’m glad someone finally said something positive about Amir instead of calling his hire nepotism. Yesterday I could have told you who the video coach for Rochester was. The fact I knew his name is enough for me to be happy with the move. He was well-liked and praised often during Amerks broadcasts as well as by Seth regularly. I think people need to separate their opinions on his promotion from Seth’s—even though I concede they’re definitely linked. He’s a video coordinator. He isn’t going to be drawing up the power play. I don’t see any reason why anyone should be unhappy with this move considering the absolute volumes of praise that can be found publicly for him.

30 silver coins?

For what it’s worth, I think there is some truth to Kulich’s 2-way improvement. From watching the Amerks, it was noticeable Kulich was getting defensive zone faceoffs this season as well as PK time. I will asterisk my own statement by adding that Kulich was not reliably on the ice for the sort of “critical” defensive zone faceoffs late in a close game.

So who is backing up UPL in Buffalo and will that backup get more wins than Levi would?

If this isn’t everyone’s opinion, they’re wrong. Harrington and Lysowski can tweet all they want, but guessing which team(s) even want the pick enough to trade for it is just one part of the problem. Those teams need to have the right assets to send back and assets that don’t have trade protections against Buffalo. I like the Tampa idea. Partly because I wanted Buffalo to offer sheet Cirelli way back in late 2020. But we don’t know if Tampa is interested in the pick or interested in moving Cirelli. I saw someone on Reddit suggest we flip it to Chicago for Philipp Kurashev… as if Chicago would make that trade. I think we also overvalue what the 11th would get us or we live in a make believe land where every player is always available for trade. Hence why the only correct attitude to have is the attitude we should move it for the right piece. Maybe instead of saying “GMKA should trade the pick” we should be rephrasing it to “GMKA should be shopping this pick to 31 teams.” The latter I’m 100% in support of. It just depends on the return.

We should draft Iginla with the 11th OA and then trade Iginla for the signing rights for Nieuwendyk so four years later Nieuwendyk gets a Conn Smythe and our franchise gets its first Stanley Cup. Stop me if you’ve heard this one before. I don’t want to kick the dead horse.

If he brings one in, I think it tells us how loud Lindy’s voice really is.

I think Stamkos stays in Tampa. Kane is interesting but it depends on what term he wants. Either of those would be good additions. If we’re talking about Vegas, I think Stephenson is more likely to hit FA and would be a better addition for Buffalo on what should be a reasonable contract. I’m afraid that if Marchessault hits FA, his Conn Smythe drives up the price. Add to it that he’s 3 1/2 years older than Stephenson and I think Stephenson is the better target.

It’s why I added the hypothetical and mentioned the NMC at the start. I really like Monahan but I expect the Jets to extend him since they gave up the first to acquire him. I like Toffoli as well but I also expect him to get a new contract.

I’m sure this will be received well, but in a hypothetical Leafs rebuild where NMCs get freely waived (which is what the Make Believe fan base seems to expect), would you consider trading for Tavares as a 3C? Tavares is overpaid at a cap hit of $11m for one more year. Since few—if any—teams can afford to eat that outright, a 25% retention is probably the starting point. That lowers his hit to $8.25m for the 24-25. Buffalo is able to accommodate that, but that’s probably the starting point for Buffalo to consider and I think it could/should go lower. His last three seasons: 2021-2022: 79 GP, 27G 49A 76P 2022-2023: 80 GP, 36G 44A 80P 2023-2024: 80 GP, 29G 36A 65P He turns 34 at the start of the season and Tavares will essentially be a cap dump by Toronto. His acquisition cost should be minimal. Leafs fans will probably celebrate a bag of pucks going their way because, at least in part, the Toronto media likes to scapegoat him for the Leafs playoff exits. His contract is the problem—not the player. He is still a productive center with 1,109 regular season NHL games under his belt. The big downside to signing him is that he is not a long-term solution. He would be in Buffalo for one season. A younger player with term is ideal, but I don’t know how aggressive Buffalo will be in pursuing such a player. It’s also nigh impossible to really know who is available for trade at reasonable values. History tells us time and time again that players signed in free agency are overpaid. Buffalo has a need for a 3C. Tavares can also be a scoring winger in the Top 6 if we need him to fill that role due to an injury. He is elite at faceoffs and is a still a threat on the power play. He is more physical than Bertuzzi and Domi—all while taking far fewer penalties. He’s got the NHL experience. He has leadership experience. Contrary to what Toronto fans will tell you, there is a lot to like with Tavares. It’s the albatross of an $11m cap hit that makes him difficult to like. Would you be willing to trade a prospect like Rosen and a 4th round pick to Toronto for Tavares at 25% and send a 3rd to Anaheim to retain an additional 25% (lowering his cap hit to $6.25m for one year)? We have the assets and this is one player that I don’t think will cost an arm and a leg to acquire because Toronto media is trying to run him and Marner out of town.

Have you been to Raleigh in the last decade? I can easily see how someone would prefer Raleigh to Buffalo.

It could absolutely happen, but I see at least one big difference between the B’s this year and last. I think last season the team lost their fire when they were up 3-1 (the choice of not switching starting goalies after game 5 aside) because they knew they were a great team and thought they would just win (I say this as the proud owner of a Bergeron jersey who is my all-time favorite non-Sabre hockey player). It was a team that played expecting to win and not wanting to win. Through the first four games this year, every Bruin player is out there playing like he wants to win—and being led by Marchand who is embodying that attitude perfectly. Just look at how well Pat Maroon is playing. It’s the whole lineup. I'm convinced it’s the same issue Toronto is having. The Leafs players just expect to win based on talent, but I don’t see them wanting to win. I could argue it’s Buffalo’s problem during the regular season as well where we have these “young, talented and skilled” hockey players repeatedly being told how talented they are. The problem is they don’t realize they need to play the game until they’re down 2-0 at the first intermission. Or we’re at game 50 of the season. Call it heart. Call it whatever you want. It’s what drives winners. On a different note, if the B’s win the Cup, Marchand has a pretty good chance of winning the Conn Smythe. If he captains a Stanley Cup winning team and wins the Conn Smythe in the process, we might see some heads explode at the very real possibility of a Rat in the HHOF.

Levi saved the game. Also as soon as I posted about blocking shots the Amerks did a great job blocking shots in the last 5.