PickaPecaPickles

Sabres are scoring and winning against good goalies too. More often than not, they faced a team's back-up last year. After beating Knight, they'll probably face Bobrovsky Monday. Keep the streak alive!

Wasn't meant so literal, rather it was a slight reference to this:

Who are these guys!?

Do those stats account for the difference in PPG? 63 vs 37

I'll beat my dead horse but try to describe it in a little detail. What will it take to get a +12 goal differential, or increase the differential by 10 over last year? GA were 244 last season. Reducing this by 10 can come from UPL playing like his second half self for a full season and improved team defense. GF were 246 last season. Can they maintain the same level of scoring? Top Line: (I'll assume it's) TT = 35, Tuch = 25, and Zucker = 20, Total = 80 Second line: JJP = 25, Quinn = 30, and Cozens = 20, Total = 75 Bottom 6 = 50, and D = 40, total = 90 Goalies: UPL = 1 [Have to get to the 246 total 😅] Grand Total = 246, generating a goal differential of 246 - 234 = +12, which = playoffs (based on the past 2 years). A big part of the ability to maintain the GF will be the PP. TT (11), Tuch (6), and Cozens(3) combined for 20 fewer PP goals in 2023-34 compared to 2022-23, which also underlies a "return to form" for those 3. Simply getting half of those back brings them to the goal estimates above. I don't think the rest of the estimates are out of line. Bottom Line (literally): I don't believe the recipe for making the playoffs is that difficult for the Sabres.

Yes, that's certainly baked into my assumptions, and I think better team D means improved net-minding as well.

As I've posted a couple times, over the past two years, every team with > +10 goal differential made the playoffs. Last year the Sabres were +2, with 246 GF and 244 GA. With Ruff at the helm, I would argue they will most likely reduce their GA enough to get to +10, as long as they can generate the same GF. So, I don't believe they need 20-25 more goals, they simply need to maintain their 3/game average. Last, their biggest issue on O last year was the Power Play, and if they can get back to middle of the pack there, then there's no reason why they can't make the playoffs.

I started with looking at GF and GA last year, 246 (this is exactly 3 per game) and 244. I think most would agree their GA will go down a bit, so do they have enough O to maintain the GF. My conclusion from the #s is it's the PP. Comparing 2022-23 to 2023-24 they went from 63 to 37 and the key players: TT 20 and 11 Tuch 8 and 2 Dahlin 6 and 6 Skinner 8 and 8 VO 7 and 1 Cozens 5 and 2 The don't need to get back to 63, but 50 (+13) is reasonable. Between TT, Tuch, and VO, they lost 21 goals. So, the keys to answering your question about the O (to me) are: can Tuch and TT improve over last year, who will make up for Skinner, and do they have a sniper like VO?

Is this a playoff caliber roster? Rather than look at the individual parts, I like to look at what it takes to make the playoffs in terms of goal differential. Over the past 2 years, any team with a positive differential > double digits made the playoffs (3 years ago 2 teams with > +10 did not make it). So, are the Sabres capable of getting > a +10? Last year they were +2 (246 v 244). The easy part is GAA. With better goal tending and team D, they should be able to get to the 2.85 range, or 234 goals against. The big question is GF? Can they average 3 per game? You can look at the individual parts they lost/gained, you can certainly make a case for it to be lower, but this can be offset by improving the PP. The PP was atrocious last year, as they went from top 10 (63 goals) to bottom 3 (37 goals). If they can make up for any loss of production at 5on5 with more PP goals, they are certainly capable of hitting the 246 mark again. At +12, based on the last 3 years, the odds are > 95% for making the playoffs and 100% over the past 2 years. Conclusion: I think this roster is capable of achieving this goal, and it will come down to improving the PP. Aside: How in the hell did the Caps make the playoffs with a -37 differential!!??

According to Wikipedia: Seems this should be a bigger part of the story here? His timeline to the NHL was delayed by at least a year and a half.

Yes, I hope he Picks-a-Peca too.

Confirms my impression of Granato and the team which I stated in the main thread about his firing Tuesday:

You might have the causality wrong here? Most of Skinner's goals come when he's on a line with two other very good players (like TNT and Tuch). Who was centering for him when he was in Krueger's doghouse and how many did he score then? Regardless, my point was I'd like to see Krebs with 2 young, offensively talented, north-south skaters (again) before I give up on him. Maybe Benson and Savoie (or Kulich)?

I'd like to see Krebs center a line with some offensive talent before tossing him out with the bath water. I recall he centered for Quinn and JJ in Rochester for a brief stint and did well with them (4 + 11 = 15 in 18 games). His +/- was terrible then, but he ended this season with +2.

I liked Granato a lot as a person and enjoyed listening to him on WGR when I could. I certainly can't judge him on Xs and Os, but just as important, if not more so IMHO, is motivating players. They are pros and supposed to be motivated, but that belies human nature. They rarely looked motivated in the first period (it seems they'd only come to life when they were down or waited until the last period). In fact, the past 2 years, it also looked like the team would wait until the second half (or later) of the season to start playing in a manner showing they wanted to make the playoffs. To me, that is all on the coaching staff. These players obviously need external motivation. You don't necessarily need some guy who is going to crack the whip, as there are different ways to motivate people. But it seemed pretty clear that Granato either didn't think it was necessary or relied on a method that wasn't connecting.

I don't think the simple projection over an 82 game season gives you an accurate estimate of his potential annual production because he came back from serious injuries, twice this season. Give him a healthy start and year, and I'd say he's a 35-40 goal scorer.

Just finished the first season of this Scifi show based on a trilogy from a Chinese author. You may recognize the names of the show's creators, Benioff and Weiss.

Dahlin has more talent, not by a large amount though. Byram is more aggressive in the O zone, but I think Dahlin had to pick his moments, given the poor D they played. I think we'll start to see a more aggressive Dahlin now as they gain more experience together.

The offense seems to be turning a corner, the team D is better, and UPL is a top 5 goalie in GAA, top 10 in Save%. Oh, and they just went + on the goal differential. There seems to be a lot of "there" there.

I feel like I'm watching this:

Next year could look like: Skinner-TT-Tuch JJP-Cozens-Quinn Savoie-Krebs-Benson Greenway + 2 [Bring someone in who can stand up for his teammates without getting his face smashed in.] Kulich as the first call-up.

Go Habs!

A big part of it is UPL who now ranks in the top 10 in save %, and that 3rd quarter change coincides with his emergence as a legit #1.

I admit, I was a doubter too.

Speaking of Ullmark, UPL has moved above him in the save % standings and is now in the top 10.