Archie Lee

UPL, like 80% of the roster, has not been good enough this year, relative to expectation. Like most players on the team, he would benefit from being in a better environment, surrounded by better players and coaching. We are not talented enough as a team to overcome our deficiencies (youth, inexperience, lack of “grit”, below average coaching in my view). UPL’s game has suffered because of this. He certainly bares some responsibility, but there is almost nobody on our roster who is truly thriving. Re: xga stats, I think they are meaningful, but they will generally not account for all factors. For example, unless I’m mistaken, they don’t account for volume of shots in a period of time. 25 shots spread over a game might result in an xga of 2.04. Take those exact same 25 shots and put them in a 20 minute period and the xga is the same (I think, somebody correct me if I’m wrong on that). But they are not the same thing. Bad teams put their goalies in bad positions more frequently and for longer and more intense durations.

I think this is what is sad. In the spring of 2023 things appeared to be turning around. The Sabres were one of the most talked about teams of the off-season. There were reports of them coming off No-Trade lists. When Erik Johnson signed, he said he asked around the league and players were high on what the Sabres were doing. Almost all of this has been squandered. The only remaining positive is that the assets that were available to Adams that would have allowed him to make this a playoff team, are largely still there (if not, in some cases, slightly diminished in value). Before this season started I was of the view that we were not a playoff team and that, nonetheless, Adams's job was safe. I never imagined we would be closer to in the running for the 1st overall pick than for the playoffs. Imagine being in year 5 of your tenure as GM and declaring this a playoff year and then having the roster and coaching staff that you built collapsing so monumentally. If Adams survives this as GM it will be indisputable proof that the Sabres are not a serious NHL team. Beyond the highest level of evaluation (we are terribly managed and therefore we are terrible), what is the point anymore?

I think people will have their lines of what is ok and what is too much. That's all fair. When it comes to any piece as valuable as a top-5 pick, it is too-simplistic to say "trade it" or "don't trade it". The question is: What are we trading it for?

This is fair and correct. We have valuable assets that we can move for middle-six players and 2nd pairing D-men. If a legit 1st line C was available in trade and the primary piece needed to complete the trade was our top 5 pick (in the 4-5 range), then it would not be crazy to do this.

Isn't it fair to say that no reasonable person is seriously advocating trading a top-5 pick for a middle-six player? If Elias Pettersson is available this off-season and Vancouver pivots to wanting a top-5 pick as the primary piece in a trade package, then it isn't crazy to trade such a pick in a deal for such a player. If it is a package trade that includes a 1st rd pick, then the value of the other pieces should be adjusted relative to the value of the 1st. Regardless, it isn't necessary for us to move our 1st rd pick. Though I'm not opposed to doing so in the right deal, I think we have more than enough assets and cap space for a good GM, who is working for a committed owner, to make the necessary moves that would make us a playoff team. There is no reason at this time, to think Adams is that GM. Pegula, does not appear to be that owner. My hope is that the Bills take a long run at the Super Bowl and that Pegula has a moment where he realizes just how incredible the Buffalo sports-scene could be if he had two teams that were championship contenders.

Or, maybe Ruff isn’t as good at coaching a team to play “the way Ruff wants them to” as some people think. Also, maybe there are some flaws in “the way Ruff wants them to play” when they have a lead.

There are 5 teams currently in a playoff position, whose 2nd line centre has fewer points than McLeod. And McLeod gets zero PP time. If, hypothetically, the Sabres sent Cozens and Byram to VCR for Pettersson, I think tonight’s lines could work next year, with Pettersson subbed in for Cozens. Pettersson with Thompson on his right wing could be elite. Zucker is a solid 3rd part of the line. McLeod with Tuch and Peterka is a fast, (2/3’s) defensively responsible line with two wingers who can score 30. Krebs at centre with Benson and Quinn is basically what we started the year with as line two, but with Cozens replaced by a better defensive centre and with the line properly slotted as line 3. Kozak has been a nice addition to the bottom 4 forwards. Bring Forbort back with Pettersson and pair him or Johnson with Clifton. Send Joker to SJ with a pick, for Ceci and pair Ceci with Power. Trade Samuelsson and Kulich to Calgary for Andersson, to pair with Dahlin. Levi replaces Reimer. Get a HC and assistants who know their way around a PP and who don’t coach the Alamo strategy when defending a lead. Sell out playoff games. Just dreaming.

I don’t think any reasonable person is suggesting we trade Power for a late first and a goalie prospect. I get not having faith in Adams to make a good deal. I also get that people have their, in practical terms, untouchables. Power for a legit #1 centre is not a crazy idea. It might be unrealistic as such trades are rare. Pierre Turgeon and Phil Housley went on to have Hall of Fame careers, but few people lament their departures from Buffalo because the players that came back were Lafontaine and Hawerchuk (two Hall of Famers). That’s the sort of trade involving Power that might make sense.

I have no interest in selling Power for pieces. But a trade that sees us deal Power (or Byram) for a player who helps us win now (and at least for a few years) is not a terrible idea. Completing such a trade would be challenging, but the theory doesn’t offend me.

For clarity, I'm 1/2 on your side in my agreement that Östlund's value has diminished, though not to being worthless. Also, jumping from consensus #22 (which is what McKenzie's rankings basically are) up to #16, can barely even be considered "a reach".

Östlund still has worth to the Sabres. We used a mid-1st rd pick on him. He was highly regarded. Still makes Pronman’s list of best U23 players (Pronman has Östlund in the same grouping as Kulich, Helenius and Benson; I like Pronman, but I think he overvalued Östlund in that grouping, and maybe undervalues the other 3). I think Östlund’s value as a trade chip has likely fallen to less than our 2nd rd pick though. There is no need for us to be anything but patient here, for the next two seasons.

I heard the clip from his interview this week where he stated that a player has to hate losing more than he loves winning. I really wanted someone in the media to follow up with: Does this organization hate losing? I get what Ruff is preaching. And obviously players are responsible for their own performances and attitudes. But for the players who have been here for 3-5 years now, who have seen the unused cap space, the prospect pool largely untapped for trades, the charade of an extensive coaching search, and on and on, is that line from Ruff (“You have to hate losing…”) not at least a little bit of an eye-roller?

I think it’s fair to say that an experienced POHO or GM hired externally, is more likely to demand more control. Which would be a good thing.

I’m by no means saying it would work out fine, but I don’t think Karmanos would simply carry on with the Adams plan. I don’t think the management structure is as flat as you suggest. I don’t doubt Adams seeks and relies on feedback, but I think he ultimately makes the call. Karmanos worked for years under Jim Rutherford, a man not afraid to make a deal. I don’t think things would be the same. Better? Who knows. I don’t think it can be definitively said that it would be pretty much the same though. I would be shocked if Karmanos doesn’t have a mental list by now, of things he would do differently.

In fairness, Miller appears to be a next level wanker. And Pettersson is not speaking in his first language. It comes across as Pettersson not having a commitment to winning, but it could just be him trying to diplomatically say: Miller is a (insert preferred expletive). I have concerns about Pettersson. That he personally doesn’t like JT Miller, is not one of my concerns.

Incredible that they get a D and not an F. This was a playoff year, per the GM (in his 5th year, none in the playoffs). And we are in dead last in the East.

I’m basically done holding the players at fault. I don’t mean that on an individual basis they are no longer to be held accountable for their play. A bad play, game, effort, etc., should be called out. But, in the big picture this is so obviously not a player issue. The players may collectively lack what it takes to be a playoff team due to a combination of talent, experience, and roster construction, but that isn’t on the players, that’s on management. The situation that the Sabres find themselves in, falls on Pegula. It is unfathomable to me that he could attend the Sabre and Bill games this past weekend and not recognize that in one case he has found two people to run the team who are near the top of their professions and that has been enormous to the Bills’s success. And, in the other case the primary issue is that he has repeatedly failed to put the same quality of talent in the GM and HC roles, and indeed has repeatedly hired below average talents. That this continues, is simply bizarre.

Rasmussen was mentioned also, so it may have been Kasper and Rasmussen for Cozens and maybe a second piece. I’m not sure what I think of that. On the one hand I see the logic. Would this then send a healthy Kulich back to Rochester? Or Kasper to Rochester? The frustrating part is that the Sabres need to get to the point where they are trading the two pieces for one. Cozens and a prospect for a player who is better than Cozens makes a lot of sense. Cozens for a bottom six forward and a prospect, feels like the Mitts trade where we are kicking the can down the road (I say that fully acknowledging that Kasper may turn out to be a better player than Cozens).

That was a very deep draft. Arizona made a mistake probably, but I’m not sure I would call D. Strome a bust, let alone an “all-time bust”. He took a long time to develop, but has put together a few good years in a row and in on an 80 pt pace. He’s the leading scorer on a team tied for 1st overall in the standings. If anything, he’s a further example of how patience with young players is important.* *For clarity, patience doesn’t mean hoarding picks and prospects and then rushing some to the NHL to play on an under-supported losing team. It is ok to judiciously move-on from some prospects, particularly when your pool is deep, in order to improve your NHL team.

That was one of the few years where the Sabres were a cap team, or close to it. We had some forward injuries as I recall. On the same day that we traded Scandella for a 4th, we also traded a 4th to Calgary for Michael Frolik. We needed to move Scandella for the cap space.

I'm not sure. I just don't see anything in the last decade of Ruff's career that supports he is a good defensive coach. As I said in a different thread, perhaps Granato just understood his roster and better knew the way they would need to play to be successful? Isn't that what a coach is supposed to do? We are pacing for 5 points behind the 21-22 Sabres of Bjork, Hagg, Hayden, Hinostroza, Tokarski, and Dell. Granato squeezed more wins out of that lemon than anyone could reasonably expect. Ruff, by all measures normally applicable, has done an objectively horrible job.

Zucker has been a mercenary the past 2 seasons (and I type that with no disrespect). If we offered him a 2 x $4.5, I think he would take it. There is lots of season left for things to go good or bad. If he is traded at the deadline and doesn't thrive on a contender, he may not get the same deal in free agency. I don't think we re-sign him though. Unless we trade a young player, Zucker and Greenway's money is going to Byram, McLeod, Peterka and Quinn (and to the additional $3 million in cap allotted to the Skinner buyout in 2025-26).

In 2021-22, Don Granato coached a team that had the following players play 40+ games: Rasmus Asplund (80), Cody Eakin (69), Mark Pysyk (68), Jacob Bryson at age 23 (73), Vinnie Hinostroza (62), Anders Bjork (58), John Hayden (55), Robert Hagg (48), Peyton Krebs at age 20 (48), Samuelsson at age 21 (42). The goalies were Anderson and Tokarski and when they couldn't go, and they frequently couldn't, in went Aaron Dell, Malcolm Subban, Michael Houser, and a 22 year old UPL. The leading scorer was Thompson who finished with 38 goals and 68 points, which is his exact pace for this season. Tuch would only play 50 games after the Eichel trade. That team finished with 75 points, or 5 more than we are pacing for this year. Then the team only got younger, but improved to 91 points. Then they slipped to 84 and Granato took the fall. Ruff gets lots of excuses: He didn't have goaltending in Dallas and NJ. The current roster is too young (it is). He needs to erase all the harm that Granato did. Maybe Granato just better knew his roster. Maybe Adams changed direction after last season and decided he wanted a team that committed more to D and somehow concluded that the answer was hiring Ruff, a coach whose recent history involves him coaching teams to mostly really bad defensive outcomes. Telling the media about the importance of defense, and calling out your top two centres, and yelling in practice, and publicly acknowledging an admittedly embarrassing performance, is something I guess, but it's not coaching. This isn't on Ruff (though, objectively, he has been awful), and it isn't on Marty Wolford, and it isn't on Matt Ellis, and it sure isn't on Don Granato. Kevyn Adams did an ok job on the teardown. That was always going to be the easiest part. Since April of 2023 though, he has shown repeatedly and to consistent disastrous results, that he is not the GM to move this team to the next stage. The sooner Pegula figures this out the better. Hopefully, him being in Buffalo this weekend drives home the contrast between the Sabres and the Bills. The Sabres don't need another rebuild. They don't need a major roster overhaul where half the team is shipped out. What they need is a competent GM who can build a playoff caliber roster and a head coach who is capable of coaching that roster to its strengths. There is no mystery. It's not rocket surgery, Terry.

The Sabres have the youngest team in the league. They have not constructed a roster with any players known as defensive stalwarts (maybe Greenway, who is injured). And they selected a HC who in his last decade as a head coach, back to Dallas, has consistently iced among the league’s worst defensive teams. I think they could play better defensively with a better coach. I think a Ruff team could play better defensively if better constructed and more experienced. The current combination was never going to be good defensively.

It only makes sense to me if the Sabres have determined they won’t get enough out of Cozens to warrant his salary. Then a trade for a useful and lower paid middle-six player (Compher, Copp) and a prospect maybe makes sense. I’m not saying I like it But I can see the logic. This would especially be true if we have an internal cap and the gap in salary between Cozens and a player like Compher, allows us to keep Zucker.